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Old 2008-05-31, 18:13   Link #1001
bayoab
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Congratulations Florida and Michigan, you are both half a state.

Florida delegates are fully instated as per the election results with .5 votes each by a 27-0 vote.

Michigan delegates are fully instated as per the statistical election results (55% Clinton, 45% Obama) with .5 votes each by a 19-8 vote.

This is fair since this gives them the same weighting as they have in the republican primary and still punishes them for breaking the rules.

Now, the real fun is going to be in counting the popular vote. FL is easy, but MI is going to be extremely hard since they altered the allocation.

Last edited by bayoab; 2008-05-31 at 18:34. Reason: Added more, links
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Old 2008-05-31, 18:18   Link #1002
SeedFreedom
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bayoab View Post
Congratulations Florida and Michigan, you are both half a state.

Florida delegates are fully instated as per the election results with .5 votes each by a 27-0 vote.

Michigan delegates are fully instated as per the statistical election results (55% Clinton, 45% Obama) with .5 votes each by a 19-8 vote.
Well, half a state is still better than not a state at all. This is probably the fairest compromise that could have been reached, although it doesn't really change much.
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Old 2008-05-31, 18:22   Link #1003
Sokar
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Not really that suprised at the results. I would have preferred both states to have 0 delegates. If you break the rules you got to pay. Of course politics being what it is both states got a slap on the hand.
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Old 2008-05-31, 18:23   Link #1004
Xellos-_^
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Originally Posted by SeedFreedom View Post
Well, half a state is still better than not a state at all. This is probably the fairest compromise that could have been reached, although it doesn't really change much.
the worst thing that could happen is that demo voters in both state feels disgruntle. Still Obama won't win FL regardless, although it should help Obama with Mi.

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Originally Posted by Sokar View Post
Not really that suprised at the results. I would have preferred both states to have 0 delegates. If you break the rules you got to pay. Of course politics being what it is both states got a slap on the hand.
Sokar, if they did that both state would have turn red.
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Old 2008-05-31, 20:59   Link #1005
Reckoner
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Originally Posted by Sokar View Post
Not really that suprised at the results. I would have preferred both states to have 0 delegates. If you break the rules you got to pay. Of course politics being what it is both states got a slap on the hand.
I think they should have got all their delegates back. It is complete BS that certain states always get to go first. It gives an enormous influence in our primary elections that is just unfair. I personally supported them in standing up to our current system.
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Old 2008-05-31, 21:12   Link #1006
bayoab
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Originally Posted by Reckoner View Post
I think they should have got all their delegates back. It is complete BS that certain states always get to go first. It gives an enormous influence in our primary elections that is just unfair. I personally supported them in standing up to our current system.
The only reason going early has any "influence" is... because main stream media, and the voters by proxy, make it out to mean something. There is really no difference between going first and going on Super Tuesday or whenever.

There is no mathematical way for a state to have any advantage by going ahead of another. The only advantage that can be gained is psychological and that is because people hype it up themselves.
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Old 2008-05-31, 21:26   Link #1007
yezhanquan
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It's only June and already, I'm getting tired of the business. Is anyone else suffering from fatigue?
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Old 2008-05-31, 21:28   Link #1008
Reckoner
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bayoab View Post
The only reason going early has any "influence" is... because main stream media, and the voters by proxy, make it out to mean something. There is really no difference between going first and going on Super Tuesday or whenever.

There is no mathematical way for a state to have any advantage by going ahead of another. The only advantage that can be gained is psychological and that is because people hype it up themselves.
If someone wins a couple of the first states, it gives momentum to the campaign. There is no technical advantage mathematically, you're right, but the way these votes turn out really impacts how people vote in future states.
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Old 2008-05-31, 21:29   Link #1009
SeedFreedom
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bayoab View Post

There is no mathematical way for a state to have any advantage by going ahead of another. The only advantage that can be gained is psychological and that is because people hype it up themselves.
That itself can have a drastic effect on the outcome of the primary. If a candidate is doing poorly, they receive less donations. Less donations means less money on the campaign. Less money means they will do poorly. And it will snowball from there.
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Old 2008-05-31, 22:20   Link #1010
bayoab
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On a complete separate note, all of the Clinton supporters who claim the DNC just gave the election to McCain and then continue on to say they are voting for McCain if Obama is the nominee make me wishes bad logic could actually hurt people.

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Originally Posted by Reckoner View Post
There is no technical advantage mathematically, you're right, but the way these votes turn out really impacts how people vote in future states.
While you are completely correct, I should probably expand more on what I meant.

There are some states that, no matter when they go, will not change. (Type I)
[These are the ones where the polls start A>B and never change.]

There are some states that the result will change no matter when they go. It will make a difference if they are twenty first or twenty second. (Type II)
[These are the ones where the polls are constantly very close.]

There are some states that, because they do not go first, will change. (Type III)
[These are the ones where the polls flip after the primary starts. A>B => B>A]

And lastly, there are the states will only change if they are placed in the end because the election has already been settled. (Type F)
[These are when polling has been stopped because the election is over.]

All states are Type I (or Type II) until something major happens psychologically or is pushed by the media into believing something is happening.

Last edited by bayoab; 2008-05-31 at 22:40. Reason: Added first part...
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Old 2008-05-31, 23:10   Link #1011
Kamui4356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Reckoner View Post
I think they should have got all their delegates back. It is complete BS that certain states always get to go first. It gives an enormous influence in our primary elections that is just unfair. I personally supported them in standing up to our current system.
They knew the rules and went ahead with the earily vote anyway. They were told it wouldn't count yet they still did it. It's complete BS that they were able to knowingly and willingly break the election rules and still get counted. What's next, a candidate loses the election, claims it's not fair because they were ahead in the polls so some of their supporters didn't turn out to vote, and demands that they get another chance to vote?

As for Clinton supporters who say they'll vote for McCain, they'll probably change their tune when he picks a runningmate. I expect a conservative vp candidate to be picked.
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Old 2008-06-01, 02:06   Link #1012
Alleluia_Cone
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The Democratic Party is in a very precarious position: On one hand, they can take the approach exemplified by Kamui4356, wherein they tell Florida and Michigan to bug off because the didn't follow the rules, or, they attempt to accommodate them in some fashion.

Now, while the first position is perhaps the 'right' position to take (and I say that as a big Bill-ary Clinton supporter), it is also the stupid one. The fact of the matter is, Florida matters tremendously in this election. Basically, if B. Hussein Obama is going to have any shot of winning the presidency, he has to win two out of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. He has a pretty good shot at Pennsylvania but trails McCain in the other two states, especially in Ohio, which is filled with the white, blue collar, working class voters that seem to abhor him. Thus we come to one undeniable conclusion, Obama really needs Florida, and going about alienating the state by stripping it of its delegates is going to come back and really bite him in the...well, you know.
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Old 2008-06-01, 12:30   Link #1013
Reckoner
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kamui4356 View Post
They knew the rules and went ahead with the earily vote anyway. They were told it wouldn't count yet they still did it. It's complete BS that they were able to knowingly and willingly break the election rules and still get counted. What's next, a candidate loses the election, claims it's not fair because they were ahead in the polls so some of their supporters didn't turn out to vote, and demands that they get another chance to vote?

As for Clinton supporters who say they'll vote for McCain, they'll probably change their tune when he picks a runningmate. I expect a conservative vp candidate to be picked.
And I am happy that they did get counted, as they should be. We'll just have to disagree on this.

The VP doesn't hold any power, so it really doesn't matter. Well maybe it does, Mccain is quite old...
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Old 2008-06-01, 14:32   Link #1014
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There's a reason why only four states are allowed to vote early: it gives less well known and less financed candidates a chance to make a name for themselves by concentrating their campaigning on small states. If the primary season just started out with one big super Tuesday with 20 states voting at once, Obama would've been recked by Clinton.
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Old 2008-06-01, 14:46   Link #1015
Xellos-_^
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn Demon View Post
There's a reason why only four states are allowed to vote early: it gives less well known and less financed candidates a chance to make a name for themselves by concentrating their campaigning on small states. If the primary season just started out with one big super Tuesday with 20 states voting at once, Obama would've been recked by Clinton.
but why those 4 states? what makes those 4 states so special?

the 08 primary aside. 90% of the time the candidate who wins the first few states will win it all.

Why iowa and California? Why Sout Carolina and Not Florida? Why NH and not New Mexico?
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Old 2008-06-01, 15:03   Link #1016
bayoab
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
but why those 4 states? what makes those 4 states so special?

the 08 primary aside. 90% of the time the candidate who wins the first few states will win it all.

Why iowa and California? Why Sout Carolina and Not Florida? Why NH and not New Mexico?
Iowa and New Hampshire are both for historical reasons and as I've been slowly hearing and reading more of, there are apparently some political reasons for Iowa too. NH has it written into their state constitution that they will be the first primary in the nation. (NH does not count caucuses as primaries.)

Now the problem with these two is, as the RBC said, they are mostly middle class whites. Thus they added South Carolina because they wanted a state with a large African American voting population and it would add a representative voice in the South. They added Nevada for a western state with a sizable non-upper class white population.

Edit:
I actually went and looked up the stats.
NH has a 75% Nomination rate for Republicans, and a 50% Nomination rate for Democrats.
Iowa has a 66% Nomination rate for both parties.

Last edited by bayoab; 2008-06-01 at 15:13.
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Old 2008-06-01, 15:27   Link #1017
Kamui4356
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Originally Posted by Reckoner View Post
And I am happy that they did get counted, as they should be. We'll just have to disagree on this.
I guess we'll have to. I'd rather see a candidate I don't support win fairly than a candidate I do support win by manipulating, or blatently ignoring election laws.

Quote:
The VP doesn't hold any power, so it really doesn't matter. Well maybe it does, Mccain is quite old...
True the VP doesn't have much real power, however, that doesn't mean the VP doesn't have any influence on policy decisions. Plus like you said, McCain is old.
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Old 2008-06-01, 15:42   Link #1018
Xellos-_^
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Originally Posted by Kamui4356 View Post
I guess we'll have to. I'd rather see a candidate I don't support win fairly than a candidate I do support win by manipulating, or blatently ignoring election laws.
There is no such as Fair in politics, especially true of national politics.
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Old 2008-06-01, 15:51   Link #1019
Anh_Minh
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Yeah, but presumably there are rules which are written down.
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Old 2008-06-01, 15:52   Link #1020
Kamui4356
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Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
There is no such as Fair in politics, especially true of national politics.
Maybe I should have said doesn't go as far as actually breaking laws to win?
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