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Old 2008-08-09, 23:54   Link #41
Lathdrinor
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Well, at least internationally recognized to the point that many people outside of China would wish for its independence.

With South Ossetia, only Russia would consider it.
And the South Ossetians, obviously. Probably the Serbs, too.

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The point is, the current situation IS the status quo. Stepping down on a rebel internal republic isn't going against the current regime.
There was an unspoken agreement between the Georgia government and the Russian "peacekeepers" in the area that Georgia would adopt a mostly hands-off approach to the province. Georgia's president, Saakashvili, was elected to break this status quo and bring the rebel province back into Georgia's full control. He was reined in several times by American/European diplomats for fear of angering Russia. He should've gotten the message, from that, that the US/Europe wasn't ready to go to war against Russia for his country. Even so, he launched a major military offensive against the rebels and their Russian "peacekeepers" in South Ossetia, gambling that the West would come to his aid.

He may very well pay dearly for this.
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Old 2008-08-09, 23:56   Link #42
Kang Seung Jae
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Originally Posted by Lathdrinor View Post
Probably the Serbs, too.
Only if they risk losing Kosovo.


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Originally Posted by Lathdrinor View Post
He may very well pay dearly for this.
I hope not.
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Old 2008-08-09, 23:59   Link #43
mg1942
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Georgians seem to holding on... at least on the ground.
So far Russians only dominate the Georgian airspace.



President: Georgia defeats Abkhazia's attacks on Kodori gorge


www.chinaview.cn 2008-08-09 23:31:28 Print

MOSCOW, Aug. 9 (Xinhua) -- Georgia has defeated all attacks on the upper part of the Kodori gorge, the Itar-Tass news agency quoted Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili as saying Saturday.

"I maintain contacts in the gorge with those who ensure security of the gorge. Today they've defeated all attacks on the gorge," the president said when he met with parliament speaker David Bakradze and opposition leaders.

The president believed Georgia is capable of repelling any attacks on the upper part of the Kodori gorge.

Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh confirmed earlier that its "aviation is currently conducting an operation in the upper part of the Kodori gorge of Abkhazia controlled by Georgia." He said the operation will continue.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...nt_9109812.htm
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Old 2008-08-10, 00:03   Link #44
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Originally Posted by mg1942 View Post
So far Russians only dominate the Georgian airspace.
I wouldn't say dominate at this point in the war.
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Old 2008-08-10, 00:15   Link #45
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lol news down there seem to be moving fast

Georgia 'pulls out of S Ossetia'
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Old 2008-08-10, 00:31   Link #46
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Originally Posted by WanderingKnight View Post
Also, in any kind of international conflict whatsoever, there is never such a thing as a black vs. white moral conflict. Both sides have vested interests in the matter--I think Georgia's are evident enough, but Russia can also take an advantage of this (annexing Georgia).
As far as I can tell, Russia has no interest in annexing Georgia - it'd look bad, and they don't stand to gain much from doing so. However, they've certainly been targetting Georgia's pipelines so that any oil shipped from Azerbaijan will have to go through Russia until they're repaired. Russia also gives a very painful reminder to the rest of the Caucasus that seeking entry into NATO is a very bad idea, and that there are firm limits to what the West can and will do.

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Originally Posted by WanderingKnight View Post
An interesting thing is that if Russia supports South Ossetia in its claim for independence, then their own position in the conflict with Chechnya is weakened.
Not really. First off, there is no longer any conflict in Chechnya - there may be a few rebels still, but their number is shrinking all the time and Russia has already assassinated most of their leaders. Next, Russia's pretext for acting in South Ossetia isn't because it was independent: not even Russia gave them that kind of recognition. Russia claimed its action as a response to instability on their border and the killing of their citizens.

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Originally Posted by Lathdrinor View Post
I'm not sure how NATO can intervene without being viewed as being anti-Russia, and at a time when Russia is so vital to European energy security, I can see why NATO countries are hesitating. I mean, if the Russians get pissed even more than they are all their energy, natural resources, and weapons technology are going to go to China and the Middle-East and then the West is kinda screwed. We are also depending on Russia to broker several major issues, such as North Korea and Iran, and we can't exactly attack Russia proper because they have nukes. So what's a superpower to do?
Nothing. Russia already pretty much has this in the bag. More cynically, it's in the interests of the West for Georgia to lose. No one really wants to rouse the Bear.

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Originally Posted by Autumn Demon View Post
I see Georgia invading South Ossetia as what it would be like if Serbia invaded Kosovo to retake it.
Ironically, this whole mess is a result of the recognition of Kosovo's independence. Russia basically promised that if that were done, they would extend further support to South Ossetia and Abkazain.

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Originally Posted by mg1942 View Post
I dunno which side is telling the truth...

Georgia said it was forced to launch the assault because of rebel attacks; the separatists alleged Georgia violated a cease-fire.
It's not too hard to imagine that South Ossetia made some trouble for Georgia since there'd been a low level conflict since about 2004. However, the magnitude of the Georgian attack is far in excess of what would be normally warranted. Moreover, the fact that they launched such a large attack so soon after calling a cease-fire says that they weren't acting on good faith. Most of the blame should probably be laid at their feet (although it's quite possible that Russia goaded them into doing something so stupid).

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Originally Posted by Kang Seung Jae View Post
I wouldn't say dominate at this point in the war.
Exactly. The words "completely control" would be much more appropriate.
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Originally Posted by The BBC
ARMED FORCES COMPARED

GEORGIA
Total personnel: 26,900
Main battle tanks (T-72): 82
Armoured personnel carriers: 139
Combat aircraft (Su-25): Seven
Heavy artillery pieces (including Grad rocket launchers): 95

RUSSIA
Total personnel: 641,000
Main battle tanks (various): 6,717
Armoured personnel carriers: 6,388
Combat aircraft (various): 1,206
Heavy artillery pieces (various): 7,550
Source: Jane's Sentinel Country Risk Assessments
This might not be completely correct, but it gives a good idea of the kind of disparity involved (and the stupidity of Georgia's move). Barring any more utter stupidity, the only thing left in this war is for Georgia to sue for terms. Since they've already withdrawn from South Ossetia and Western military aid is not forthcoming, it's the best way for them to salvage this catastrophe (that and getting rid of their president).

Incidentally, as short as it was, if the casualties of 1000-2000 deaths is correct, this would be the bloodiest high-intensity war in quite a long time.
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Old 2008-08-10, 00:35   Link #47
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Originally Posted by 4Tran View Post
This might not be completely correct, but it gives a good idea of the kind of disparity involved (and the stupidity of Georgia's move). Barring any more utter stupidity, the only thing left in this war is for Georgia to sue for terms. Since they've already withdrawn from South Ossetia and Western military aid is not forthcoming, it's the best way for them to salvage this catastrophe (that and getting rid of their president).
It really depends on how far Russia is going to go in.


From what I know (from people over there), Georgia is withdraw due to the Russians bombing Georgia proper. Once that part is over, I expect the conflict to go into South Ossetia again.
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Old 2008-08-10, 01:33   Link #48
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Originally Posted by Zoned87 View Post
You should not fear or take crap from Russia, they nor none of their weaponry could ever reach our sores.

Any long range missiles would be shot down, Russia is an inferior bug who should be put in their place
I would like to ask one thing to the other american users: has the average american the same mind as the dude above?
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Old 2008-08-10, 01:48   Link #49
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Let's not get too feisty, even if what the man says here is wrong.

Im an American, I lament the carnage but I really dont care. It happens everywhere, our country built its expansion on it (somewhat).

Plus I really don't trust the Kremlin, but YEA WE NEED EM FOR NORTH KOREA AND IRAN.
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Old 2008-08-10, 01:51   Link #50
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Originally Posted by ipernorris View Post
I would like to ask one thing to the other american users: has the average american the same mind as the dude above?
Well, I don't have that mindset...but then again, I fear that I might be considered strange by many "normal" Americans.... I don't believe that Americans, in general, seek war, or constatly think about the world as if all other nations are against the United States. But, then again, it always seems that many people in power preffer to see the entire world as a potential enemy, rather than looking for allies, etc. So, if nothing else, attitudes, such as Zoned87's, can be easily cultivated.
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Old 2008-08-10, 01:58   Link #51
solomon
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Originally Posted by Zoned87 View Post
.

We should not act like France
Hey pal, it's your right to say what you think and feel but truthfully, it's stupid. I don't think you wanna go to France and say that.
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Old 2008-08-10, 02:16   Link #52
Kamui4356
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Originally Posted by 4Tran View Post
Nothing. Russia already pretty much has this in the bag. More cynically, it's in the interests of the West for Georgia to lose. No one really wants to rouse the Bear.
I'd disagree with that statement. While it's certainly not in the west's interest to intervine directly, Russia losing, or at the very least being unable to gain a decisive victory, would in my opinion be the desired outcome. It could weaken Putin's control over the government. Given his actions as president and the way he transfered power to the Prime Minister's office, then became PM to get around term limits, Putin getting an embarrasment like that would be a good thing. A decisive Russian victory without western action will only embolden Putin and set the stage for trouble in the future.

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like that's going to happen.
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Old 2008-08-10, 02:46   Link #53
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Originally Posted by Zoned87 View Post
It's true, someone has to fight for freedom when everyone else is to cowardly.

What if the United States had been to fearful to enter world war 2? Nazi Germany probably would have conquered the rest of the world.

We should not act like France
Actually Germany would have lost the war in Europe anyway, even without US. Most of its manpower and resources were consumed by the Eastern front. The Allies only had to fight mostly second rate soldiers because the best troops were sent to the Eastern front to hold back the Soviet advance.
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Old 2008-08-10, 03:27   Link #54
Reckoner
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I heard about this and found it funny that Bush was talking to Putin the other day in the Olympic's opening ceremony (I wanted to hear that conversation!).

I knew the Soviet Union never collapsed (And this may not actually turn out to be a joke the way politics have been shaping up in Russia lately)!

...On a side note.

I'm all for countries coming in and fighting for justice when it is something deserved. However, a war like this is Russia's and Georgia's problem. Not the U.S. and not even most of Europe. This is not a war of justice, because as people have said it is not a black and white war.

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I would like to ask one thing to the other american users: has the average american the same mind as the dude above?
No, definitely not. The end.
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Old 2008-08-10, 03:39   Link #55
Phantom-Takaya
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Originally Posted by Zoned87 View Post
My opinion is not irregular, it mirrors the popular opinion.
Please don't speak for us, your fellow US citizens. I personally don't agree with what you said about Russia, and obviously neither does several other US citizens who have have posted in this thread. (Or even those who don't.)

In fact, I think both Georgia and Russia are at fault. Georgia being the one that started this mess and Russia simply provoking the situation further with a show of over-muscle. What's happening between these countries is a typical example of how a situation can be blown out of proportion, thus making things worse and harder to solve.

If anything, I'd like my government to try and mediate the situation without taking sides. Something that probably won't happen, but I can petition, can't I?
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Old 2008-08-10, 04:18   Link #56
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Originally Posted by Comrade View Post
Actually Germany would have lost the war in Europe anyway, even without US. Most of its manpower and resources were consumed by the Eastern front. The Allies only had to fight mostly second rate soldiers because the best troops were sent to the Eastern front to hold back the Soviet advance.
No. Just no.

Downplaying the Soviets' contribution is wrong. Downplaying the Allies' contribution is also very wrong.

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Originally Posted by Phantom-Takaya
In fact, I think both Georgia and Russia are at fault. Georgia being the one that started this mess and Russia simply provoking the situation further with a show of over-muscle. What's happening between these countries is a typical example of how a situation can be blown out of proportion, thus making things worse and harder to solve.
On the other hand, a victorious war for Russia -- technically in self-defense, for now, though Georgia naturally claimed rebel provocation as casus belli -- means a much better position to ask for things unimaginable prior to that. I don't claim to know the future, but the Georgians look like they're about to be forced to give out some concessions to Russia as a price for their President's folly. In a conventional war, militarily, they don't stand a chance.

And we shall quietly ignore the fact that people are once again dying for their masters' visions and ambitions. This conflict looks like the kind of high-intensity war that can cause a lot of deaths, especially if the Georgians chose a mountain guerrilla campaign over a quick peace, and especially if it somehow escalates into something it should not become.

Just how much will the West be willing to intervene diplomatically, I wonder? And just how much will Putin listens?
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Old 2008-08-10, 04:29   Link #57
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<shrug> Putin knows everyone is either tapped out or is more concerned about the major pipelines in the area. Looks like Georgia breaking the status quo (if that's what happened) blew up in their face - literally.

Most of the civilian deaths appear to be from an apartment complex near an airfield getting caught in the bombardment. Another pile of unnecessary deaths from nationalistic testosterone overload.
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Old 2008-08-10, 04:43   Link #58
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Zoned87, go ahead, save poor Georgia from Russian agression! (And you are really bad at history, especially WW2)


Look at these pics from "Gori".

Spoiler for Pics:

But it is easier to blame Russia in all mortal sins, than some dot-in-the-map Georgia.
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Old 2008-08-10, 04:46   Link #59
Zoned87
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We are the world police, everything is our business. [Note the sarcasm]

Do not blame me, every one of us contibuted by electing our current leaders

Last edited by Zoned87; 2008-08-10 at 04:58.
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Old 2008-08-10, 06:31   Link #60
xris
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Can I ask that everyone remains civil while posting in this thread, and for that matter please keep on-topic.

A number of posts have been removed due to this, if you feel that part of a removed post was relevant then please let me know (by PM) so the on-topic part can be restored.
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