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Old 2009-06-15, 00:16   Link #1
Sackett
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Current Events in Iran

Is anybody else here following the aftermath of the election in Iran?

It reminds me a lot of those heady days in the late 80's when all the challenges to the various Communist governments was occurring.

I hope it turns out like it did in Germany and Russia, but I can't help but fear it will be another Tienanmen Square outcome. People forget, but that started off quite hopeful too.
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Old 2009-06-15, 02:05   Link #2
Vexx
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A bunch of people are trying to follow it .... but with very little help from the US media :P

Nothing happens on the weekend according to commercial tv news... its all a recap of the previous week. Meanwhile, I'm having to get most of my data from world news sources....

Much will depend on how forceful the moderate clerics are in asserting that the election was not handled properly. Otherwise, the 'ruling fat cats' will come down hard on the middle class and urbanites (with sour long term consequences for the country). They're already arresting almost anyone who could coordinate anything.

Interestingly, I saw some photos of protesters *rescuing* a riot policeman who'd gotten hurt -- seems like they know exactly who to be mad at and who they realize is just part of the chess game.
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Old 2009-06-15, 02:10   Link #3
monir
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BBC is doing equally piss poor job at covering. There is this another TV station that I've got which is doing pretty decent job, but unfortunately I can't remember the name of the channel. I'll get back to this thread.
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Old 2009-06-15, 02:14   Link #4
MrTerrorist
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I still think the election was a sham especially when it was reveal the opposition leader's hometown voted for the President and to add more fuel to the fire, the President dismiss the allegation of vote rigging like it was nothing only added more fuel to the fire.

Things are going to be bad for Iran unless they do a recount or another election.
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Old 2009-06-15, 04:14   Link #5
SaintessHeart
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The Guardians probably have something to do with this. Maybe it is due to Hossieni being seen as pro-western rather than moderate in their narrow point of view. If they had twice as much brain cells as their strands of beard, they would be able to see past that US is not as isolationist and paranoid as it was in the past.

P.S Forgive me if my future posts sound slightly "racist and anti-religion" in nature, but my stance towards the politics of Iran are pretty middle-fingerish.
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Old 2009-06-15, 08:14   Link #6
Sackett
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrTerrorist View Post
I still think the election was a sham especially when it was reveal the opposition leader's hometown voted for the President and to add more fuel to the fire, the President dismiss the allegation of vote rigging like it was nothing only added more fuel to the fire.

Things are going to be bad for Iran unless they do a recount or another election.
I thought the comment that he could not guarantee the safety of his political opponent was the most damning part of Ahmadinejad's address.

I think it looks like the Republican Guard is backing Ahmadinejad, so it depends on two things. Will the "moderate" clerics oppose him, and will the regular army back the clerics up.

Either way... Iran politics have been changed, whether for good or ill is yet to be seen.

Also, what's with the weird reports of Arabs and even Venezuelans appearing in Tehran as riot police? Just a random false rumor? Or is truth stranger than fiction?
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Old 2009-06-15, 11:06   Link #7
Shadow Kira01
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No, I am several weeks outdated on the Middle East events.

From what I gathered, the current Iranian president recently won a landslide victory in their election and some people aren't happy about it.
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Old 2009-06-15, 11:59   Link #8
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Iran poll loser leads huge rally
Quote:
Teheran (June 15): Defeated Iranian presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi has joined a huge rally against the result of last week's election, defying a government ban.

Tens of thousands gathered in Teheran, and reports say shots were fired as the protests continued into the evening.

Mr Mousavi, who was making his first public appearance since last Friday's vote, believes results were rigged in favour of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Mr Ahmadinejad has dismissed the claims and says the vote was fair.

The BBC's Jon Leyne, in Teheran, said today's rally was the biggest demonstration in the Islamic republic's 30-year history and described it as a "political earthquake".

The demonstrators gathered in Teheran's Revolution Square, chanting pro-Mousavi slogans as riot police stood by. "Mousavi we support you. We will die, but retrieve our votes," they shouted, many wearing the green of Mousavi's election campaign.

And Mr Mousavi eventually appeared, addressing the crowd from the roof of his car. "The vote of the people is more important than Mousavi or any other person," he told his supporters.

Before Mr Mousavi arrived, Reuters reported that his supporters had scuffled with stick-wielding men on motorcycles - apparently supporters of the president. Following two days of unrest, the interior ministry warned earlier on Monday that "any disrupter of public security would be dealt with according to the law".

- BBC NEWS
Implications?
1) The protests may potentially become a challenge not just of an election result, not just to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, himself. That means it is, in effect, a challenge to the whole basis of the Islamic Republic, a prospect which some in the West would no doubt welcome, albeit secretly.

2) The public anger, and strong suspicion that the results were rigged in Mr Ahmadinejad's favour, is in itself a good indication of where ordinary Iranians stand with respect to the President's anti-Western rhetoric — they don't like it.

3) It should have been a widely celebrated election, one that was conducted openly with minimal interference or intimidation. Sadly, all that ugliness is now beginning to show its hand. So far, the Ayatollah is honouring the election results and calls on the opposition to use legal means to challenge the vote — in itself a telling sign of how Islam works in this complicated country: a problematic mix between secular modernity and religious tradition.

4) Unrest in Iran presents a difficult moment for the rest of the world as well. "The election choice was basically between the openly anti-Western Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and Mr Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who made it clear he wanted to end Iran's isolation and talk to the Americans, (but) it would certainly not have been an easy relationship, even if Mr Mousavi had become president."

5) "(And) it certainly is not in the outside world's interest to have a long period of disorder in Iran. Political chaos in a leading oil-producing country would do more economic damage to Western countries."

6) Last but not least, what impact could the outcome have on Middle Eastern peace? Think Israel, which regards Iran as one its greatest enemies at the moment.
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Old 2009-06-15, 12:07   Link #9
cors8
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I'm interested to know how Iran explains how they counted 35-40 million paper ballots in a couple of hours. If it was done legitimately, which I find doubtful, they should give the USA some tips on counting.

On the bright side, at least Khameni has called for an investigation. I don't think it'll lead to much though.
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Old 2009-06-15, 12:14   Link #10
AnimeFan188
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Michael Totten's blog is covering the situation in Iran pretty well:

Iran on Fire:

http://www.michaeltotten.com/archive...an-on-fire.php


Insurrection: Day 2:

http://www.michaeltotten.com/archive...rection-da.php


An Enemy of the World:

http://www.michaeltotten.com/archive...emy-of-the.php


The updates have been coming in daily since the crisis started.
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Old 2009-06-15, 17:41   Link #11
Jinto
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Ayatollah Chomeini once led a peacefull revolution. At that time the shah of persia repressed the people.
The iranian people did not resort to violence then. The military of the shah shot demonstrators but saw the decisiveness of millions of demonstrantors and gave up.

(A prime example of how a people can get rid of a dictator without civil war or preemptive wars of liberation led by third party countries with shady motives)

Ayatollah Khamenei should know all too well how determined the irianian people can be when they want to get rid of a leader.

Even if the election was not rigged up, the leadership might be better of with fair new elections and getting out of this mess peacefully.

I think the determination of the iranian people in this matter will be the most significant factor in the aftermath of this election.

Last edited by Jinto; 2009-06-15 at 18:07.
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Old 2009-06-15, 18:10   Link #12
4Tran
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sackett View Post
Is anybody else here following the aftermath of the election in Iran?

It reminds me a lot of those heady days in the late 80's when all the challenges to the various Communist governments was occurring.
That it does. It's also a good reminder of how tenuous the democratic process is in a country that isn't fully capable on embracing all of its necessary components. As it stands, Iran is looking at more instability than at any time since 1979, with a lot of potential for violence up in the air.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sackett View Post
I hope it turns out like it did in Germany and Russia, but I can't help but fear it will be another Tienanmen Square outcome. People forget, but that started off quite hopeful too.
There's no way to equate with partitioned Germany, and Russia does not set a good example. Remember that the power struggle in Russia was settled by tanks firing upon their Parliament building. It was less bloody than Tiananmen, but the consequences were far more devastating in the long run.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post
Implications?
1) The protests may potentially become a challenge not just of an election result, not just to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, himself. That means it is, in effect, a challenge to the whole basis of the Islamic Republic, a prospect which some in the West would no doubt welcome, albeit secretly.
Eventually, this might be a desirable outcome, but it's an ugly mess for the time being for everyone involved. Even Israel has to be looking onto this with some degree of trepidation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post
2) The public anger, and strong suspicion that the results were rigged in Mr Ahmadinejad's favour, is in itself a good indication of where ordinary Iranians stand with respect to the President's anti-Western rhetoric — they don't like it.
Not quite. The reason why so many Iranians don't like Ahmadinejad is because his promised reforms have failed to do much to improve living standards of the people.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cors8 View Post
I'm interested to know how Iran explains how they counted 35-40 million paper ballots in a couple of hours. If it was done legitimately, which I find doubtful, they should give the USA some tips on counting.

On the bright side, at least Khameni has called for an investigation. I don't think it'll lead to much though.
While there's a good chance that the poll results were rigged, it's not impossible for a country to count a large number of ballots fairly quickly. Ballot counting doesn't take that long provided that it's well-organized enough and there are enough volunteers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jinto View Post
Ayatollah Khamenei should know all too well how determined the irianian people can be when they want to get rid of a leader.

Even if the election was not rigged up, the leadership might be better of with fair new elections and getting out of this mess peacefully.
Interestingly, it appears that this is a possible out if the Iranian leadership chooses to take it. There's a provision in the Iranian constution wherein the President's deputy is placed as interim President, and a new election arranged to take place within a couple of months. At this point, this might be the ideal solution.
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Old 2009-06-15, 18:12   Link #13
Shadow Kira01
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Tehran blocks broadcasts from BBC

Looks like the Iranian government is ready to commit a mass killing again, this time they will seal everything and make sure nobody interferes with the "justice" of their government. Honestly, every time a government-body goes on a mass murdering spree, they claim it as justice. Pretty lame..

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
compare to the rest of the Middle East Iran is actually pretty safe for Westerners. Unless of course, you are a reporter, used to work for the CIA or FBI. If you are a regular tourist or for business, it is pretty safe.
Not exactly true..

Considering that Iran is now blockading foreign press groups from entering their nation as seekers of the truth as to why civilians are getting gunned down by their government over a simple refusal of acknowledging the unreasonable landslide victory by the incumbent leader who is proven to be extra unpopular within their public for reasons such as attempting to provoke war, making nukes for the purpose of destruction, and not wanting to have peace with other nations. Due to various reasons such as these, the Iranians have become stressed as that they may end up as victims of foreign nation gunfire and air raids as that Iran may launch an attack at another nation provoking a necessary counter-attack. More over, the livelihoods of ordinary Iranians are at stake, they must protest to hope for the best...

Tragically, before they succeed to seek fairness to their recent election; their current ruling government took their lives as the civilians whose livelihoods are at risk clashes with the people who supports the current incumbent leader. Hopefully, the ones open-firing at these poor civilians will start to feel that their actions are not the form of justice but that of crime, the crime of mass murdering innocent civilians over a simple election. Perhaps, the United Nations should step in and prevent this outrageous event from occurring. How pitiful..
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Old 2009-06-15, 18:40   Link #14
Jinto
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@Shadow Kira01,

could it be that you are exagerating things a little bit? I did not hear of people being gunned down yet (only of warning shoots) - been reading different news sources BBC,AFP,AP,Reuters. A couple of german reporters was positive that they would be allowed to report as usual as of tomorrow. I am not sure if there is a general deniance of press.
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Old 2009-06-15, 18:44   Link #15
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There's definitely a lot of really bad stuff going down over there, and there is a fair chance (probably?) the election was rigged, but what I don't understand is why the Iranian government (or whoever rigged the elections) are still keeping that Ahmadinejad guy around. I mean, he's just an embarrassment.
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Old 2009-06-15, 22:35   Link #16
Vexx
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Looks like the Ayatollah blinked.... his wing of moderate clerics were speaking out that the election looked "irregular". Problem is, unless he appoints an independent panel --- there's no credibility to having the goons who counted it the first time check their results.

And yes, some protesters have been shot... but it *APPEARS* that it may not have been riot police doing the shooting but a hard-line religious militia compound that the protesters got too close to.
Still too chaotic to be sure either way but there have been a few people injured by gunfire.

Last edited by Vexx; 2009-06-15 at 22:45.
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Old 2009-06-16, 00:09   Link #17
Shadow Kira01
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jinto View Post
@Shadow Kira01,

could it be that you are exagerating things a little bit? I did not hear of people being gunned down yet (only of warning shoots) - been reading different news sources BBC,AFP,AP,Reuters. A couple of german reporters was positive that they would be allowed to report as usual as of tomorrow. I am not sure if there is a general deniance of press.
Actually, I haven't been following the Iran issues lately.. Thought I heard something about a false election and shots fired, as well as press blockades in a rather un-democratic nation pretty much gives reasonable impressions as to what is happening there..
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Old 2009-06-16, 05:25   Link #18
bladeofdarkness
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the latest report puts the death toll at over a dozon as of this post
and the protesters at one million at their highest
its ironic really, since one of the key issues that LED to the fall of the LAST regime in iran was the involvment of fake votes in elections
if the corrent regime has repeated that mistake, then they must REALLY be desperete
the elections in lebanon last week that the hizballa lost was an indication of the loss of public support for the path that iran is trying to lead
ahmadinijad losing the election only farther cements that notion
so they might have intervened to keep their policies alive

P.S
since the matter was raised, i should point out that the isreali view point is that ahmadinijad winning is (believe it or not) the BETTER option
iran isnt really a democracy after all, the elected president is more of a international "face" then an active power in effecting national policy
the ayatolla's do that from behind the presidency, and without asking what the people want

so having the face of someone like ahmadinijad, who is an agressive, anti-western, holocust denier at the for front of such a regime is better (from an israeli view point) then having a resonable man like Mousavi
neither one is the REAL head of the state, but the elected man is the FACE of the state to the outside world
the regime is a dangerus hostile fandamentalistic regime ANYWAY
at least with ahmadinijad in front, its LOOKS match its ESSENCE
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Old 2009-06-16, 06:02   Link #19
Jinto
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
the latest report puts the death toll at over a dozon as of this post

P.S
since the matter was raised, i should point out that the isreali view point is that ahmadinijad winning is (believe it or not) the BETTER option
iran isnt really a democracy after all, the elected president is more of a international "face" then an active power in effecting national policy
the ayatolla's do that from behind the presidency, and without asking what the people want

so having the face of someone like ahmadinijad, who is an agressive, anti-western, holocust denier at the for front of such a regime is better (from an israeli view point) then having a resonable man like Mousavi
neither one is the REAL head of the state, but the elected man is the FACE of the state to the outside world
the regime is a dangerus hostile fandamentalistic regime ANYWAY
at least with ahmadinijad in front, its LOOKS match its ESSENCE
What you essentially wanted to say is that it is easier for Israel to justify a preemptive strike against Iran when Ahmadinedjad is elected instead of Mousavi.
Its not like Israel was much less radical then Iran. If one only thinks about the settling politics and the actual settlers (who would turn very violently against their own country when forced to give up their settlements).
Honestly one cannot be very sympathetic with either side these days. There are fundamentalists on both sides. The only thing one can hope for is that things turn out without another war in this region. But when I hear israel's elites talk these days I always get the impression they actually want a major show down asap.
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Old 2009-06-16, 06:33   Link #20
bladeofdarkness
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jinto View Post
What you essentially wanted to say is that it is easier for Israel to justify a preemptive strike against Iran when Ahmadinedjad is elected instead of Mousavi.
Its not like Israel was much less radical then Iran. If one only thinks about the settling politics and the actual settlers (who would turn very violently against their own country when forced to give up their settlements).
Honestly one cannot be very sympathetic with either side these days. There are fundamentalists on both sides. The only thing one can hope for is that things turn out without another war in this region. But when I hear israel's elites talk these days I always get the impression they actually want a major show down asap.
more like
its easier to say "iran is a threat to the whole world" when you have a mad man like Ahmadinedjad at the helm
i doubt there would be an israeli preemptive strike
the over all goal seems to be making the international community get off its ass and deal with iran and its nuke production project
not that i think it would work mind you

P.S
i'm with you on the settlements and settleres
bunch of radical idiots who corrupted the very essence of what zionisem was SUPPOSE to be and are responsible for why its uttered almost as an insult nowadays
but i disagree on one point
true that both sides have fundamentalists
in iran however, the fundamentalists are the ones in power
the settlers are not in power, and are in fact LOSING more and more of what ever influance they have every day
most of the israeli public agrees to the notion of clearing out settlements, using FORCE if neccesery
hell, even the corrent israeli PM just declared that there WILL eventually be a palestinian state (which is something that his own PARTY has always been opposed to)
guess we got obama to thank for that
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