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Old 2009-06-17, 05:22   Link #41
bladeofdarkness
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OK
bush is an idiot
but he doesnt try and pretend he was ELECTED by god
what he said was said to an evengelist cleric
he doesnt try and tell it to the public (and if he did, he would have been out of power the next week)
and if people hear about what you just posted, they are more likely to face palm then anything else (certinatly not agree with the notion)
the position of the presidency is a mandate given by the people

and the political reforms mosavi supports are something thats INTERNAL
it doesnt change the nuke progrem (he's partly responsible for its creation in the first place) or the international policy
it doesnt change the basic idea behind the "revolution" that they are trying to export

@yezhanquan

you mean Tiananmen as in the massacre ?
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Old 2009-06-17, 05:24   Link #42
yezhanquan
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Yeah. As I see it, the clerics definitely has this option on the table. Seriously, we don't need another Tank Man. Worse still is the worry that the tank commander would run over the chap/lass this time round.
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Old 2009-06-17, 05:28   Link #43
bladeofdarkness
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there are ALREADY over two dozon dead
and the goverment is blocking out the media as much as possible
but i dont think they would intentionally cause a massacre just to secure their position (its not really THEIR position, only ahmadinijad)
one of the key Shia psychological warfare tactics that they used during the "revolution" is making the enemy look like a monster by causing massive civilian death
i dont think they would be stupid enough to fall for their own trap
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Old 2009-06-17, 05:30   Link #44
Jinto
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Originally Posted by yezhanquan View Post
There are now rumours that the clerics would pull a Tiananmen. Any thoughts on this?
This would be similar to the situation in 1979. Though I doubt the regular military would kill millions of its own people. I guess the more troublesome party here are the revolutionary guards. Besides I am not quite sure who really is in power.. the QOD or the revolutionary guards. It would not surprise me if Khamenei is influenced by other factions and not such a supreme leader as some seem to think he is.
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Old 2009-06-17, 05:35   Link #45
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While blade is right on the "demonising" tactics, I'm still not dismissing the possibility of the tanks rolling in. These are heady days.
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Old 2009-06-17, 05:39   Link #46
bladeofdarkness
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right now, what they want more then anything else is for things to quite down
if they end up killing people on mass, anyone who's annoyed by the election thing but not really motivated enough to do something about it would get the motivation
this wouldnt STOP the riots, this would make the riots MORE violent and massive (right now its just the younger people protesting, what happens when the parents see their kids getting killed on TV)
other countries might be moved into acting as well
right now obama is trying to play it like "thats the iranian problem, let them sort it out"
but it wouldnt be so easy a position to take it the iranian goverment were to start massacring their own people on mass
no one wants to be remembered as the president who set by and WATCHED

i cant see them "rolling in the tanks" as anything but the final option
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Old 2009-06-17, 05:43   Link #47
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Agreed. The clerics just want this whole thing to die away quietly, and it will be business as usual. But, there are definitely those who do not want to go back to the old days. So far, only the militia has been used.

Actually, once the tanks roll in, it's curtains down for the whole affair. How can it get worse?
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Old 2009-06-17, 05:45   Link #48
bladeofdarkness
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Originally Posted by yezhanquan View Post
Agreed. The clerics just want this whole thing to die away quietly, and it will be business as usual. But, there are definitely those who do not want to go back to the old days.
as far as I'm concerned
the western world should be HELPING them, not look away while they get beaten and broken by the revolutionary guard
the west didnt CAUSE this upraising, the iranian people did
people shouldnt be afraid of their goverments, goverments should be afraid of their people
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Old 2009-06-17, 06:25   Link #49
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It would take Iran potentially causing a serious threat to the region before anyone would be willing to step in, and then it would most likely be a more localized response rather than any western nations. At best I see the UN sending them some more toilet paper in the form of UN resolutions.

I wouldn't be surprised if most of the western world were secretly hoping for some kind of upheaval to oust the current crazy people in power. I'm sure a domino effect was at least considered when the US was making plans to deal with Iraq.
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Old 2009-06-17, 08:30   Link #50
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It would take Iran potentially causing a serious threat to the region before anyone would be willing to step in, and then it would most likely be a more localized response rather than any western nations. At best I see the UN sending them some more toilet paper in the form of UN resolutions.

I wouldn't be surprised if most of the western world were secretly hoping for some kind of upheaval to oust the current crazy people in power. I'm sure a domino effect was at least considered when the US was making plans to deal with Iraq.
they ARE hoping for that
and not just the west
most of the ARAB world would be happy to see them gone
the corrent iranian regime is the biggest threat to every country in the region (except syria)
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Old 2009-06-17, 09:51   Link #51
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Originally Posted by yezhanquan View Post
There are now rumours that the clerics would pull a Tiananmen. Any thoughts on this?
They would throw their entire Basij Force in the fray. Unless they really feel like playing an IRL version of "Freedom Fighters" on the side of the Soviets, they better unhand that thought.

Khatami opened the minds of the youngsters to the outside world. Ahmadinjad now has trouble closing them. This is not going to wind up good.

P.S Actually I am curious to know what is the rifle used to shoot at the civilians. Are they using the Khaybar KH2002 or just G3s? If they are using the former, it could count that their military strength has grown much to be able to challenge Israel in the Mideast on an equal footing. They reversed engineered the Dragon TOW into Toophans and the Israeli Cornershot (they claim they build it themselves, bullshit), so there is still probably alot of black box technology they possess that we do not know.
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Last edited by SaintessHeart; 2009-06-17 at 10:02.
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Old 2009-06-17, 09:54   Link #52
bladeofdarkness
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Who claims that they invented the cornershot
The Israelies or iranian

And I wouldn't worry too much about their army
Having a better assult rifle doesn't mean much
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Old 2009-06-17, 10:04   Link #53
SaintessHeart
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Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
Who claims that they invented the cornershot
The Israelies or iranian

And I wouldn't worry too much about their army
Having a better assult rifle doesn't mean much
There is this reference to a gun show which Iran showcased "its own Cornershot". I am not sure if it is true or not, but I know they didn't invent it, the Israelis did.

It is not just about the rifle, it would mean how much they have progressed in this 30 years.
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Old 2009-06-17, 10:11   Link #54
bladeofdarkness
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Last I heard was their air force was rather poor (don't really remember much) and without it they can't pose much of a risk as an agressor
They could play bunker as hard as hell but any attempt at launching a ground offence against the surrounding nations is not practical
They also don't have much of a weapon supplier (the russions don't give them the best stuff)
Their main tactics would revolve around either gurrila terror tactics or a massive missile strike (the one field in which they have made a REAL progress)
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Old 2009-06-17, 10:14   Link #55
SaintessHeart
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I will see if I can dig out any information on their military from Jane's Defence Weekly.......

Rarely did they cover on the Mideast country's militaries.
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Old 2009-06-17, 10:15   Link #56
Jinto
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
There is this reference to a gun show which Iran showcased "its own Cornershot". I am not sure if it is true or not, but I know they didn't invent it, the Israelis did.

It is not just about the rifle, it would mean how much they have progressed in this 30 years.
Thats not quite the topic, anyway a cornershot weapon was first inveted by the Nazis the STG44 with Krummlauf (bend barrel)???

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6_qJ8F_xss
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Old 2009-06-17, 10:16   Link #57
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Do you have any evidence that any of this is true? It runs counter to just about every credible source that I've read about Iran.
Not all the young people there support another revolution. If that would be the case, that would have happened already. As in every country, there are sides, and in this case, the side supporting the government also has the police force with them. Just because the ones coming out of there, some belonging to the richer families there, supporting the revolution (as if it is), does not mean they reflect the whole population. Anyways, the side supporting the government can have quicker access to guns and weapons if they wanted. And if it becomes very serious, it is not unheard people killing each other, especially in Iran, when the regime is essentially targeting that. Right now I believe the only reason they are trying to allow re-counting the votes is to get rid of the ones that are considered as the soft-members of the group, and make the core ones appear clearly, so that they can target them later on.

Quote:
None of that is true; which is why there was a strong probability that Achmedinajad would lose the election in the first place.
Actually, the nuclear part is quite true. The ones that I talked to are strongly supporting that part (it is better not to assume the next generation revolutionaries as pure angels or such, they are not, they are every bit of a product of the ongoing regime). And they don't mind suffering a bit as long as they get that power. However, Ahmedinejad wasn't able to stop at the a bit part, and created a much bigger economical crisis. In any case, without his skills, Iran wouldn't have reached that far in gaining nuclear power. If he gives that to Iran and leaves the leadership at the end of that, without waiting any further, believe me, people forget about most of his mistakes, and remember him as a great leader.

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Only Israel has a slight possibility of using its nukes, and only under the strongest provocation. Even then, it doesn't really have the capability of reaching most Iranian targets, and the U.S. wouldn't let it to so.
I doubt that, to both parts. If not for the past, Israel right now would not have minded to exile all the Palestinians there using force. They are playing it gentle, but the intention is there. If you apply the same logic to the nukes, you won't see a need for a strong provocation to initiate such a thing. I really cannot see an end to how far Israel can go, so I will leave at this. And about America's influence on Israel, I am also suspicious about how much of an impact the US can have, if Israel decides to use those.
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Old 2009-06-17, 10:23   Link #58
bladeofdarkness
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The man led Iran to become a perhia in the international community
He turned it into a 2nd north Korea
And he is in largepart responsible for iran poor economy
Nukes are not much Use in anything other then a threat against out side enemies
How can anyone view him as a good leader is beyond me

Edit:
And where did you get that bullshit about Israel planning to exile the Palestinians from
Or that they are likly to use nukes without much provocation
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Old 2009-06-17, 10:34   Link #59
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Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
The man led Iran to become a perhia in the international community
He turned it into a 2nd north Korea
And he is in largepart responsible for iran poor economy
Nukes are not much Use in anything other then a threat against out side enemies
How can anyone view him as a good leader is beyond me
Iran has already had a bad economy. It is not limited to him or his regime. Iran has already been kept outside the international community (the ones you are referring to) for a very long time. And, Iran has never become a 2nd Korea, or an Iraq. It has sufficient amount of deals going on with other countries in the region, and some European countries, as usual. And Israel's acts in the region pretty much limits what the international community can do against Iran.

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And where did you get that bullshit about Israel planning to exile the Palestinians from
Or that they are likly to use nukes without much provocation
You didn't know? That must be a shocking news. There is a strong reason why they make the Palestinians suffer there, despite that being against human rights. They want to make them give up, and leave on their own. And, if you remember Israel's past, they are pretty much likely to go on the offensive before the other side starts its move. Strongest provocation means getting seriously attacked. That will never happen. Only the opposite is bound to happen in case of Israel. But, don't forget, they are a highly capable country to make that look as an accident, like the nukes they were planning to use on us exploded accidentally.
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Old 2009-06-17, 10:47   Link #60
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Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
How so about the last part
The international community would rather sit out ANY conflict at all
Why do you think that it's Israel who limits them
International community has deals with Iran, and I don't see them stopping. That is why I said he is a highly capable deceptive leader. He was able to idle such efforts against Iran while not stopping building his own nuke.

About your last question, because Israel's some acts cannot really be defended by the international community, except US. So, Iran trying to build that nuke doesn't get the same reaction compared to the case where Israel acts like an innocent. Secondly, the power struggle in the region gives a reason for some countries (opposing US's influence in the region starting with Israel) protect Iran openly or behind the doors. And with that much oil to share, and with guarantee that Iran cannot and will not hurt them, why not arrange some deals to make both sides happy...For them, who cares if Iran gets the nuke. It is not like they will use it against their country.

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The avarge Palestinian living in the west bank has a better life then their counter part in Syria or Lebanon
Goesxwithout saying that it also goes for GAZA, where there aren't any Israelis
You got things backwards about who is trying to make who leave
The Israelis are the ones who made extremely good offers to the Palestinians only to be turned down
That means had Israel not forced them into inhuman situations, they would have had a much preposterous life. You know that reminds what is going on in Saudi Arabia. The king distributes a sufficient amount of money to keep the people live in average or better economical conditions while oppressing them in other parts. You know some people rather be poor than be oppressed. And who can say that is not true for the Palestinians. As long as they have their freedom, they can blossom into a better country without oppression. But, right now, they cannot break out of it.

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And the ones talking about making the other side leave are and always HAVE BEEN the Arabs
Yes call it honesty or naiveness. They have to keep their mouth shut and as their opponents do things behind the closed doors, instead of sharing them openly. There is a reason why US invaded Iraq, used the excuses of bringing democracy or killing the terrorists. Even though both were lies, they still initiated the act successfully using such excuses. Those countries should learn that if they want to survive.
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