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Old 2009-07-10, 20:06   Link #61
Karlson
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Originally Posted by Unknown Soldier View Post
My thinking is that the key is literally a key in this arc. Natsuhi has it, it's the key to Kinzou's study. Her survival is at least guaranteed for some time as long as she has the scorpion medallion. The other group who have the scorpion medallion are the kids, since Battler has the other one. As long as Battler, Jessica, George, and Maria have the other medallion and stick together, they will at least survive until the gouging of various body parts. It should be noted that according to the epitaph, 6 + 2 + 5 = 13 people will die before the 9th night. There are 18 people on the island (not counting Beatrice). So 5 will survive until the end and meet Beatrice. Of these, Maria has already met her. My wild prediction is that the survivors will be Natsuhi, Battler, Jessica, Maria, and George.
Personally I think the medallions aren't gonna be the only deciding factor on who survives and who doesn't after the 8th twilight. I think it might also come down to who actually believes Beatrice exists ever since Maria mentioned her being angered by those who don't. If the medallions were the only factor that decided the fate of these characters then everyone would be fighting (possibly killing eachother) over the possession of them. Reading the epitaph, The first twilight describes that the key chooses. Probably by means of the use of demonic magic that can be sheilded by the medallions. However, the rest of the twilights sounds like something those medallions aren't gonna protect them from but I could be wrong.

And speaking of that key...If that is the key why did Genji have it? That just raised my suspicion of him even more now and there was already a number of other reasons that I'm suspicious of him for

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Originally Posted by Kazane View Post
I wonder if there is a reason for choosing those six or if they were just randomly selected to be sacrificed for the first twilight. I mean, I expected only most of the parents to die and not the servants.
It could've been deicded on the whereabouts of where they currently resided in. After all, it can't be just a coicidence that all the victims of the first twilight were all in the mansion.
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Old 2009-07-10, 20:34   Link #62
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Originally Posted by Karlson View Post
It could've been deicded on the whereabouts of where they currently resided in. After all, it can't be just a coicidence that all the victims of the first twilight were all in the mansion.
They were also all awake. Everyone else in the mansion was sleeping, except for Kinzo, but the door to his room is locked with only 1 known key out there.
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Old 2009-07-10, 20:54   Link #63
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Originally Posted by bjw View Post
They were also all awake. Everyone else in the mansion was sleeping, except for Kinzo, but the door to his room is locked with only 1 known key out there.
Originally I thought the same thing too, but the hand prints on the other side of the door outside Natsuhi's bedroom lead me to believe that she was intended to be one of the sacirfices that night as well but the medallion held back whatever it was that was trying to break through the door but couldn't. She too was sleeping.

And there's also Eva and Hideyoshi to take into account. They didn't technically go to bed till shortly after midnight (that might be a translation error tho). So they were probably still awake at the time it started happening. This leads me to believe that the murders probably didn't really take place till at least a good few minutes past 12 instead of directly at 12 like I originally thought
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Old 2009-07-10, 21:30   Link #64
Paranoia833
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Originally Posted by bjw View Post
They were also all awake. Everyone else in the mansion was sleeping, except for Kinzo, but the door to his room is locked with only 1 known key out there.
Doesn't Kinzo himself have a key?
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Old 2009-07-10, 21:32   Link #65
Paranoia833
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Originally Posted by bjw View Post
They were also all awake. Everyone else in the mansion was sleeping, except for Kinzo, but the door to his room is locked with only 1 known key out there.
Strictly speaking, we don't know that all the murdered people were awake at the time they were killed, all we know is that they were awake when Eva and Hideyoshi retired for the night (assuming they aren't lying obviously).
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Old 2009-07-10, 22:07   Link #66
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How are you going to explain those evil butterflies that sprinkle pixie dusts and glow like fireflies then? That throws all the notions of human foul play out the window. Hmm, unless those flying glow worms are a native creatures of Rokkenjima and Rokkenjima alone and Kinzo has been keeping them as pets. But that in itself is also unnatural. That'll be hella weird. I think there's a supernatural explanation to all of this.
I don't deny the supernatural elements. Looking from the op, it is very likely that the butterflies are some sort of essence of Beatrice. But judging by the nature of the show, it is very likely that the killing is done by human(s). The killer(s) is the one who creates the illusion that supernatural pwnage is at play (by sending the "Beatrice" letter through Maria and the whole mutilation and demon circle thing). After all this is a mistery anime where the killing acts are all concealed. If all the victims were just killed from someone playing around with voodoo dolls or writing in death note, it won't make a great answer to the mystery.
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Old 2009-07-10, 23:46   Link #67
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Ah, that heady feeling of mystery speculation combined with creepy disquiet over brutal murders. I hope it lasts and we don't too quickly rush into a 'second season' plot like Higurashi did. That said, I'm going to take my Higurashi lessons and apply them (unfairly) in my deductions/delusions.

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that:
* Beatrice is indeed a supernatural presence, and some sort of lover/friend to the old man. He's obviously still attached to her.
* The murders are not directly caused by Beatrice, but (like in Higurashi) born of the greed of normal humans who wish to exploit the gifts of the witch. There are only 18 people on the island, Beatrice will be more of a supernatural force like Hanyuu. However Beatrice is cover for the murders. We know in ep 1 that all the adults want money, actually need it, so that should end up being the ultimate motive.
* The butterflies are a red herring (like those damned flowers) for their supernatural effect. They are a visual signifier of something happening but will be revealed to be simply artistic lighting upon normal butterflies. This is mostly sour grapes after being fixated on flowers for so long in Higurashi!
* The old man is quite mad, and is possibly setting up his progeny to kill each other for his amusement. He may well be putting his children in the situations where they are desperate enough to kill. Why do I think this? Why he plays chess of course! Diabolical masterminds with impossibly manipulative plans are always signified by chess playing (solo even!)
* When Beatrice is revealed she will actually be a force of good that recruits Battler to help her cut through the chain of murder. It's nothing specific, I just get the sense from both the opening sequence and the epitaph that she's not as bad as she seems. I mean, what kind of evil witch gives you so many hopeful loopholes after you've already violated her contract?
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Old 2009-07-11, 01:16   Link #68
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Originally Posted by Karlson View Post
Originally I thought the same thing too, but the hand prints on the other side of the door outside Natsuhi's bedroom lead me to believe that she was intended to be one of the sacirfices that night as well but the medallion held back whatever it was that was trying to break through the door but couldn't. She too was sleeping.
I really don't know what to make of the door, simply because it doesn't make any logical sense. Indeed, the medallion can stop magic, but looking at this from the perspective of human hands doing the killings, I fail to understand why they didn't open the door. For all we know, the door could have been nothing more than a half-assed joke by someone like Eva.

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Originally Posted by Karlson View Post
And there's also Eva and Hideyoshi to take into account. They didn't technically go to bed till shortly after midnight (that might be a translation error tho). So they were probably still awake at the time it started happening. This leads me to believe that the murders probably didn't really take place till at least a good few minutes past 12 instead of directly at 12 like I originally thought
Yeah, I caught that too. Their alibi is that they went to sleep after midnight, and also, we don't get to see what they're doing right as midnight approaches. Who knows where they were, or perhaps more importantly, what they were doing.
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Old 2009-07-11, 02:27   Link #69
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So much to know...so little revealed. In time we may know what it going on. But for now....we do not really have much of a clue.

Considering the answer arcs aren't even released yet...no one has a real clue. That is part of the beauty of this anime right now. Everyone to one extent or another, is in the dark. Everyone is equally questioning what happens...who did it...why...and...does the witch exist?

(Why do I feel like there should be one of those cheesy evil laughs after that statement? The ones the start low and build up to nearly thundering laughter.)
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Old 2009-07-11, 02:28   Link #70
Karlson
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I really don't know what to make of the door, simply because it doesn't make any logical sense. Indeed, the medallion can stop magic, but looking at this from the perspective of human hands doing the killings, I fail to understand why they didn't open the door. For all we know, the door could have been nothing more than a half-assed joke by someone like Eva.
Ah I see, there's the difference right there. I'm looking at it from a different perspective.

At the first twilight, you shall lift up as sacrifice the six chosen by the key

Reading that part of the epitaph I certainly believe that one of the 18 people in this family killed the 6 people off but I think it was done through indirect means and not by his/her own hands. Again it seems that once the key to the Golden Land was obtained that's when the game began, starting with the key choosing its 6 victims and killing them off with it's power (likely demon magic) when the time called for it. All meant as a sacrifice to complete the first step toward the goal.

Now the question is was the choices by random or did the holder of the key at that moment have a choice of who to kill off? Kinzo's lines seem to support the randomized theory. From episode 1-2 he stated

"The roulette has started spinning. I wonder which pocket the ball will fall into. Rouge? Noir?"

The word roulette must come from gambling (sorry I've never gambled in my life so I'm not 100% sure on that) so I'm assuming he's referring to a game of chance here with the first twilight.

If in fact the killer had the choice of who to kill off first he/she would have to (as someone stated earlier in this thread) know the house and the inhabitants well, and be able to predict everybody's movements and where they are if in fact these murders were carried out indirectly like I suspect.

Back on the topic of the door tho, you actually get a close up look of the medallion hanging on the doorknob opposite to the bloody side which is how Jessica states it's supposed used like. I think the only other logical possiblity of why all that stuff was on the door is it could've been Shannon banging her bloody hands on the door in a failed attempt to wake Natsuhi while she was being murdered. Of course it could also be taken as a sign that she willl be next.
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Old 2009-07-11, 02:31   Link #71
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Originally Posted by Karlson View Post
Personally I think the medallions aren't gonna be the only deciding factor on who survives and who doesn't after the 8th twilight. I think it might also come down to who actually believes Beatrice exists ever since Maria mentioned her being angered by those who don't. If the medallions were the only factor that decided the fate of these characters then everyone would be fighting (possibly killing eachother) over the possession of them. Reading the epitaph, The first twilight describes that the key chooses. Probably by means of the use of demonic magic that can be sheilded by the medallions. However, the rest of the twilights sounds like something those medallions aren't gonna protect them from but I could be wrong.
The only person who knows what the medallions do is Maria, who gave them to Battler and Jessica. It is unlikely that Jessica really believed that Beatrice exists right when she gave hers to Natsuhi, her mother. She just wanted Natsuhi to feel better since she was having one of her migraine episodes. Battler pretty clearly does not believe in Beatrice and so he would not have any idea about the medallion he possesses, it's unlikely he would throw it away just because it would hurt Maria's feelings so he's safe whether he knows it or not.

Quote:
It could've been deicded on the whereabouts of where they currently resided in. After all, it can't be just a coicidence that all the victims of the first twilight were all in the mansion.
I find it interesting that the servants' duty shifts were all changed at the last minute that night. I also find it interesting that apparently it was Krauss who ordered the changes. Krauss is now dead and so cannot speak to why these changes were made, but I think that will be important later on.
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Old 2009-07-11, 02:35   Link #72
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Incidentally, I do believe that Beatrice exists. This is not fundamentally in conflict with Higurashi, as there are significant supernatural elements which influence the very core of the storyline. The murders are likely to be committed by the people on the island and not by Beatrice herself. The epitaph pretty strongly implies that it is humans killing humans. In fact, if you interpret the epitaph a certain way, you can even say that it is the key-bearer who kill the first 6 people on the 1st night. That would certainly explain why Natsuhi's door is covered with bloody handprints. That being said, it is ultimately a supernatural element (Hanyuu's endless resurrection of Rika) which allows the events of Higurashi to occur, and I believe there is something similar going on here. The epitaph basically says Beatrice has the power to bring people back to life at the end. In that sense Beatrice might perform the same role in Umineko that Hanyuu does in Higurashi, someone needs to have the power to resurrect the dead in order for the events in Himanizawa or on Rokkenjima to keep looping over and over.
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Old 2009-07-11, 02:37   Link #73
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Originally Posted by Unknown Soldier View Post
Krauss is now dead and so cannot speak to why these changes were made.
I think it's safe to fill you guys in on this one. It wasn't mentioned in the anime but both in manga/VN, Kanon speculated that it might be because Krauss was trying to keep the servants directly serving under Kinzo (the servants with the one-winged eagle) away from the family discussion due to Beatrice's letter popping out of nowhere.
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Old 2009-07-11, 02:39   Link #74
Karlson
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I find it interesting that the servants' duty shifts were all changed at the last minute that night. I also find it interesting that apparently it was Krauss who ordered the changes. Krauss is now dead and so cannot speak to why these changes were made, but I think that will be important later on.
My theory on that...it wasn't Krauss that made that change. I think it was Genji, with all my suspicions about that guy and he is the head servant as well as the man Kinzo trusts most of all. Everything just seems to fall into place with Genji being suspicious here although perhaps that's just this series trying to lean me in that direction when it could go much deeper than that.

But that too I imagine is a very vital clue to figuring out who's behind all this
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Old 2009-07-11, 02:40   Link #75
plzd0ntkeelme
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Originally Posted by bjw View Post
I really don't know what to make of the door, simply because it doesn't make any logical sense. Indeed, the medallion can stop magic, but looking at this from the perspective of human hands doing the killings, I fail to understand why they didn't open the door. For all we know, the door could have been nothing more than a half-assed joke by someone like Eva.


Yeah, I caught that too. Their alibi is that they went to sleep after midnight, and also, we don't get to see what they're doing right as midnight approaches. Who knows where they were, or perhaps more importantly, what they were doing.
My deduction so far is that the killer is trying to trick everyone that the killer is a supernatural entity that would be stopped by the amulet. The killer must've given the medallions to Maria and tells her about putting it at the doorknob. Natsuhi is one of the targeted at the first twilight but looking that she has the medallion at the doorknob, the killer decided to put those blood at the door, most likely from the 6 victims after killing another one to replace her. This sounds too simple and I feel like there is much greater significance to the medallion but that's all my deduction for now.

So far, Eva and Hideyoshi are definitely the prime suspects. They both don't behave very kindly and are in need of a huge sum of money. Both also appear to be witty and dangerous. And, as someone already mention, none of their family members were harmed. Shannon, who just proposed to their son, was also killed maybe because she's just a maid. The part where Hideyoshi sounds so 'fake' at the crime scene could also mean something, if not for horrible voice actor.
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Old 2009-07-11, 02:45   Link #76
Karlson
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Honestly the medallions could also be a bluff by Maria too. That is another possiblity I took into account
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Old 2009-07-11, 02:46   Link #77
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I think Beatrice does exist, and did give Maria that letter. Finding a ring in the rain in that huge rose garden would be nearly impossible, and none of them should have known that he was going to throw it out the window when he did. (well maybe, just maybe Genji might have known) I think Umineko is sorta the reversal of Higurashi. Most of the characters in Higurashi strongly believed in Oyashiro-sama, but in Umineko all the characters don't seem to believe in the witch, besides Maria and kinzo. lol its kinda weird

*I think the shrine that was hit by lightning is significant towards the plot, seems like it would be odd to have mentioned it without it meaning something.

*Kinzo believes in Beatrice, and appears to be into witchcraft

*Maria seems to be into witchcraft, believing in Beatrice, and having the scorpion bracelets. (which actually seemed to protect Natushi) A odd hobby for a child, so I'm guessing she picked it up from Rosa (since kinzo doesn't seem all that loving...), or other family members? Maybe the whole family is into some sort of witchcraft.

*Kinzo threw the ring from his study window. No one was around (since he doesn't seem to allow many people in his study to begin with lol), and no one should have known about him throwing it. So how could someone find the ring in that huge rose garden while it was raining? The chances it being a family member/servent seems unlikely to me. Then Beatrice appears to Maria.

-What bothers me is what happened to the rose, it seems unlikely that they would just look in the wrong place. Since its a mystery type genre, that would be kind of stupid. So did Beatrice get rid of it, or was it pure chance a family member removed it/set it up.

*Rudolf knew he was going to die, seems like he knew something the others didn't.

*The gold, is real, and it had to come from someone. Another hint Beatrice is real?

*Kinzo's conversation with Natsuhi seemed odd... not sure what to make of it.

*Eva and Hideyoshi left the discussion, conveniently before the others who remained discussing were all killed. I am thinking they might have been in with the others to make up the 6 sacrifices, but they weren't there/couldn't be killed, so they tried to get Natushi, but they couldn't get her either, so Shannon and Gohda got sacrificed... I'm kinda iffy on that though

*Natushi would have been sacrificed, but the scorpion bracelet wouldn't allow them to enter. Which is another supernatural thing. Genji opened the door, so if it was human it should have been able to have gotten in. I can't see any point in leaving the blood on the door if they were capable of getting in, and the door was only bloody on the outside. So if they were able to get in there should have been some blood that dropped inside. Since the culprit/victim seemed to have had a lot of blood on them.
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Old 2009-07-11, 03:12   Link #78
Karlson
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Here's an interesting thought when looking at this situation with the perspective that the murders were commited directly by the hands of someone else

Scene showing the clock striking 11:55:00
11:55:30 Rudolf, Rosa, Kyrie, and Krauss were all talking about the usual stuff in the same room in the mansion.
11:56:00 Shannon was working the midnight shift in the mansion (supposed to be working at the guest house)
11:56:30 Gohda was playing a crossword puzzle in the mansion
11:57:00 Kanon was in Genji's room serving a cup of coffee at the guest house
11:57:30 Kumasawa was sleeping in her room in the guest house
11:58:00 Doctor Nanjo was sleeping...not sure if this was in the mansion or the guest house.
11:58:30 Battler, George and Jessica were in the guest house playing cards. Maria was sleeping beside them.
11:59:00 Natsuhi was sleeping in her room in the mansion
11:59:30 Kinzo was playing chess in the mansion
Scene reverts back to the same clock and it hits 12:00:00 midnight

Looking at the scene I thought to myself...maybe they happened in that same order. 9 scenes in the span of 5 minutes. that's 300 seconds divide that by 9 I believe comes up as 33.33333333333 you get the idea. That's pretty close to 30 so I decided to mess around with the time span for each scene and came up with that.

Yes it likely could be incorrect but it brought up an interesting theory for me and guess what? It added even more suspicion to Genji since he could be somewhere else 3 minutes later from that scene. Of course this can only be supported if in fact the walk from the guest house to the mansion isn't far at all (which I assume it is not)


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Originally Posted by Christen View Post
I think it's safe to fill you guys in on this one. It wasn't mentioned in the anime but both in manga/VN, Kanon speculated that it might be because Krauss was trying to keep the servants directly serving under Kinzo (the servants with the one-winged eagle) away from the family discussion due to Beatrice's letter popping out of nowhere.
Ok I had to do some research here on that cause I thought all the servants served directly under him, but apparently Ghoda does not. I must've missed that being mentioned in the anime, but that does shed alot more light on change
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Old 2009-07-11, 03:17   Link #79
MeoTwister5
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Quote:
Scene showing the clock striking 11:55:00
11:55:30 Rudolf, Rosa, Kyrie, and Krauss were all talking about the usual stuff in the same room in the mansion.
11:56:00 Shannon was working the midnight shift in the mansion (supposed to be working at the guest house)
11:56:30 Gohda was playing a crossword puzzle in the mansion
11:57:00 Kanon was in Genji's room serving a cup of coffee at the guest house
11:57:30 Kumasawa was sleeping in her room in the guest house
11:58:00 Doctor Nanjo was sleeping...not sure if this was in the mansion or the guest house.
11:58:30 Battler, George and Jessica were in the guest house playing cards. Maria was sleeping beside them.
11:59:00 Natsuhi was sleeping in her room in the mansion
11:59:30 Kinzo was playing chess in the mansion
Scene reverts back to the same clock and it hits 12:00:00 midnight
This isn't necessarily true. Niether the anime nor any other original medium showed conclusively without a doubt that these events happened in such an order with a 5 minutes timeframe. The way it was presented seemed to have hinted more that all these were scenes of what everyone was doing at the EXACT moment of the clock hitting 12mn.
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Old 2009-07-11, 03:17   Link #80
risingstar3110
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Originally Posted by rocket View Post
* When Beatrice is revealed she will actually be a force of good that recruits Battler to help her cut through the chain of murder. It's nothing specific, I just get the sense from both the opening sequence and the epitaph that she's not as bad as she seems. I mean, what kind of evil witch gives you so many hopeful loopholes after you've already violated her contract?
Yeah i agree with what you are saying here. Beatrice here should be no where close to the true evil witch..... Take that in mind and looks at the epitaph
Spoiler for Epitaph -Space:

Few points i want to make
- What we expects of all the kill, and sacrifice, and dead/alive (and isolated island + wealth + mysterious incidents) we think of human massacre. But if the witch is not evil and Kinzo is not a maniac, and this message to honor the witch, then these may indicate something else. It may as well a mere object.
- Read from 4th to 8th twilight. It sounds like a gruesome murdering. But if each day go from head->chest->stomach->knee->leg. Then all these could be from a single human-like object, especially if you notice how those 5 divided evenly to human portion (gouge out knees is a ridiculous method to kill) . Something that can be "gouged" out and "killed" at each twilight, then can be "gouged" another part and "killed" again the next day..... ? Moon? sun? waves? a river? a statue? a picture (Beatrice, your portray pic is in danger xD)? That object may not even appear yet. But why it needs a whole day to go from step to step? A huge limestone that need daily tide to erode? A magical pen that appear with certain twilight's light intensity? We have to wait for more clues then
- Surely at least one character will think the epitaph means human sacrificing, and likely that it include the culprit(s). Unless (s)he knews the exact meaning but still used the epitaph to hide his revenge motives and make ppl think that the work of supernature (eh Oyashiro-sama curses? )
- "The resurrection of the souls of all the dead", then even "the resurrection of the lost love". Why have to divide into two groups? Unless there are people died in the past, who could be so dear with the main characters or/and (the culprit) that he/she try to resurrect.



My major guesses atm for the whole Umineko (based on 2 eps and an epitaph, wow ) is: the culprit (entirely or not) believed in Beatrice's existence. But due to a past event, that person want to resurrect some1 dear(mastermind do not kill for gold xD). By chance, that person got "the key" and mistakes what said in the epitaph as a human sacrifice ritual. Believe that everyone will be resurrected in the end along with the one dear to her/him; she/he decided to put up this gruesome murdering. There could be more than one culprit (the other could be for revenge), and they do not even works together due to different motives. But accidentally carry out the same method


There should be three things caused the Umineko tragedy: human, natural and supernatural. Human will be the 18 (or more) people on the islands, natural would be a past disaster (only 2 i can think of, the great disaster in the past and the shrine that collapsed near the shore, but could be something else like 34's lightning) and the super nature (Beatrice and the witches)
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