AnimeSuki Forums

Register Forum Rules FAQ Members List Social Groups Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Go Back   AnimeSuki Forum > General > General Chat

Notices

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 2009-07-14, 06:16   Link #21
Shadow Kira01
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: PMB Headquarters
I do not think it is possible due to a variety of factors, even though there are quite a number of similarities. First of all, the political system is very different in regards to most policies. Secondly, the most important factor is that the economic growth issue works differently.

China relies on cheap labor and resources through poor to average quality production which is dependent on the cash flow of foreign investors. Due to the aid of foreign investors, they are also receiving support from foreign governments because of the lobbying and also the fact that many of these foreign investors are bigwigs with influence in the government. Japan, on the other hand receives its economic growth primarily from profits reaped in the overseas. If the economy in the overseas, such as the United States and Europe deteriorates, it affects the overall economy of Japan itself. For that matter, China's economy works in an opposite direction to that of Japan's.

And thus, it is not possible for China to achieve a similar burst of Japan's when they are heading in an opposing direction economic-wise. However, due to the similarities posed by the current economic situation, people may feel that it is similar yet it actually isn't.
__________________
Shadow Kira01 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-07-14, 22:02   Link #22
Theowne
耳をすませば
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Toronto, Canada
Age: 25
Send a message via Skype™ to Theowne
Quote:
If the economy in the overseas, such as the United States and Europe deteriorates, it affects the overall economy of Japan itself. For that matter, China's economy works in an opposite direction to that of Japan's.
Wait, what? You're saying China won't be affected if all the rich nations that manufacture there products there start going downhill?
__________________

My Site - Reviews collection, Sheet music, and etc.
Anime reviews/blog, piano arrangements, Studio Ghibli..
Theowne is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-07-14, 23:22   Link #23
TinyRedLeaf
. . .
 
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Singapore
Age: 39
I caught up with some friends in the financial sector over the past week, and we would always end up discussing China sooner or later (for obvious reasons; China is the only bright spark, other than India, in global markets at the moment). In particular, I wanted to hear their views regarding the following assessment by George Friedman, published in his book, The Next 100 Years.

Spoiler for length:

While I found much of the book to be the stuff of an overblown imagination, the earlier chapters were, to me, fairly sound, especially the above chapter on China (there's much more to it; buy or borrow the book to find out).

What amuses me is that my friends pretty much agreed with the broad scope of the analysis, although none of them would care to admit their fears openly. One of them even told me, jokingly, that everyone knows that China's growth is unstainable, but they'd prefer not to think about it. As I've suggested earlier in this thread, the solvency of China's banks is a huge unknown that no one wants to probe too deeply into.

For why would any canny financier want to do so? The unspoken fear is that should China's cover be blown, it could well trigger a run on its banks, and the subsequent meltdown will very definitely be very ugly, both for China and the rest of the world.

Last edited by TinyRedLeaf; 2009-07-14 at 23:34.
TinyRedLeaf is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-07-22, 21:07   Link #24
Fate21
Kiyu~
 
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: In Heaven, I hope
Age: 22
But China is not famous its anime or manga.
Fate21 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-07-22, 21:31   Link #25
Lathdrinor
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
I'm not an economics expert, but it seems to me some basic logic must hold in even such an arcane art. One such logic is the cardinal rule of production: so long as you are able to produce what you need and have spare production capabilities after, you can attain a surplus and develop the country. This goes for resources, manpower, and just about everything else.

China's market capitalism experiment may or may not bust. But this is a country that's lived under a command economy for decades - a pretty disastrous one, true, but still one that developed the country's industries and infrastructures. Those legions of factories, roads, power plants, mines, and universities must count for something, even if the entire export-oriented strategy fails altogether. The only question, then, is whether China has enough resources to sustain a collapse of its exports, which will lead to a drastic reduction in the nation's coffers and therefore its ability to import from elsewhere.

Well, does it? That's the question I'm looking for an answer to.
Lathdrinor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-07-22, 21:39   Link #26
Oppius
Banned
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Hell
Age: 29
I guess what Japan and Western countries are afraid of is China wants to have its own economical block. If it happen, China someday surpass Japan in economy.
Oppius is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-07-22, 21:45   Link #27
TinyRedLeaf
. . .
 
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Singapore
Age: 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathdrinor View Post
China's market capitalism experiment may or may not bust. But this is a country that's lived under a command economy for decades - a pretty disastrous one, true, but still one that developed the country's industries and infrastructures. Those legions of factories, roads, power plants, mines, and universities must count for something, even if the entire export-oriented strategy fails altogether.
Japan smothered itself with concrete throughout its boom years. Sure, on paper, it counted as "productivity growth" to a certain extent, but it certainly didn't prevent its disastrous bust in the 1990s.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathdrinor
The only question, then, is whether China has enough resources to sustain a collapse of its exports, which will lead to a drastic reduction in the nation's coffers and therefore its ability to import from elsewhere.
From what I've been reading so far, and also based on what observers tell me, China's growth is made possible by an enormous pool of cheap labour. That is the key factor that enables China to be the factory to the world. But cheap labour will eventually run out, as rampant growth inevitably leads to inflation.

Already, for example, textile producers are moving out of Guangdong and setting up shop in Vietnam as labour costs in that part of China have ceased to be internationally competitive. This trend will become increasingly apparent towards the future.

So, much depends on how well China manufacturers can scale the value ladder and shift towards increasingly capital-intensive production that leverages on the skills and knowledge of its people, instead of pure brute labour. Mind you, there are plenty of Chinese PhDs out there, and plenty more intelligent Chinese nationals who are keen to go back to their homeland after a few years of working abroad.

All this, however, doesn't remove my greatest concern: the solvency of China's banking system. I strongly suspect that much of it is running on hot air. But, as last year's Wall Street crisis has demonstrated, "hot air" is relative. Investors and speculators are perfectly happy to live on pipe dreams, so long as no one comes around to cry wolf. All it would take is for someone to prove conclusively that the Emperor is wearing no clothes, and everything could come crashing down like a house of cards.
TinyRedLeaf is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2009-07-25, 12:43   Link #28
Lathdrinor
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eipuriru View Post
I'm gonna talk about china music/film artists. There is no way that china will ever become the next japan (and I'm not try to be nasty since I am part Chinese) but just looking at japans music talents we can tell that china copy a lot of japans idea.
E.g. Morning musume the best selling girl band in japan was copied by china and they formed many girl bands like them however they all end up splitting due to being unsucessful.
It's hard to compare the two countries since their cultures are similar yet very different at the same time
I believe it's quite premature to talk about China's entertainment industry when most of its people still live in poverty.
Lathdrinor is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
china

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 23:29.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
We use Silk.