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Old 2009-07-29, 21:16   Link #1
Cipher
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Exclamation The Internet

In just over (spans of) short years, the Internet developed drastically. Any future speculations about its development?

Btw, if anybody has a "timeline of the history of the Internet", kindly show me. Thanks.

Last edited by Cipher; 2009-07-31 at 23:54.
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Old 2009-07-29, 21:22   Link #2
klowny
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Here's a video about it
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Old 2009-07-29, 21:57   Link #3
TinyRedLeaf
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^ Nice documentary short about the origins of the Internet.

There are plenty of articles in books and on the Web that provide details about the Internet's development over the years. However, as someone who belongs to the generation that is old enough to remember the days before the World Wide Web while not being too old to grow up comfortably with its innovations, the history of network technologies becomes a little bit more personal.

For me, the milestones in the "history" of the Internet (and related economic events as well as developments in the PC and gaming industries) from the 1990s till today include:

~ 1995?
  • World Wide Web bursts into mainstream consciousness, but for most of us, e-mail was the first Internet technology we experienced first hand at university.
  • New generation of handy mobile phones began to appear. Everyone at British universities rushed to get their own cellphones as Britain was one of first countries in the world to liberalise its telecom sector.
  • First websites were very basic, full of links, few images. Bulletin boards and gopher were still the norm.
  • Yahoo! emerged as leading search engine of its time, while Netscape was the dominant browser.

~ 1997
  • (Asian financial crisis bursts bubble of pride and enthusiasm in East Asia, particularly in the "tiger" economies of South-east Asia.)
  • (Square releases FFVII, the game that would seal the franchises' reputation and make PS1 the leading game console of its time.)
  • (Everyone at Silicon Valley went gaga over so-called "Information Revolution", thus fuelling a tech bubble.)

~ 2000
  • Tech bubble bursts. Massive correction forces everyone to re-evaluate dot-com expectations.
  • Meanwhile, text messaging began to overtake e-mail as the more popular way of keeping in touch with friends.
  • Internet Explorer all but clobbered Netscape since it came bundled with Windows XP.

~ 2001-03?
  • Sony PS2 sweeps the game-console market by storm. Nintendo temporarily left in the dust, while Microsoft gnashes teeth in the sidelines, belatedly launching X-box years after PS2 established its dominance.
  • Nascent social-networking sites emerge in the form of Friendster.
  • Music industry first to feel effects of digital data proliferation, thanks to peer-to-peer platforms such as Napster and Kazaa.

~ 2005
  • Mobile phones started moving into 2.5G on WAP platforms.
  • Talk of Internet 2.0, a new infrastructure capable of supporting widespread broadband transmissions.
  • From the ashes of Napster emerged other file-sharing programs such as Bittorrent.
  • Google began to replace Yahoo! as the leading search engine.
  • Setback for telecoms industry as many operators realised they had paid too much for overhyped 3G licences. Smartphones make clumsy, hesitant debuts.
  • World of Warcraft takes MMORPGs mainstream. The genre starts dominating PC gaming. Over next few years, games developers began shifting to console games instead.

~ 2006-07?
  • Facebook and YouTube herald the start of the social-networking revolution.
  • All levels of traditional media begin to feel impact of rampant file-sharing; TV shows and movies no longer immune as broadband networks begin to expand.
  • Apple reinvents itself with iPod.

2008
  • Twitter kicks of another wave of enthusiasm for social networking.
  • First year that all three "next generation" consoles out in market: Xbox 360, Wii and PS3. Even so, it was clear by now that Nintendo had regained momentum with roaring sales of Nintendo DS.
  • Apple iPhone popularises touchscreen technology. New burst of interest in smartphones.

--------

All the above are very rough notes. I certainly haven't backed them up with research. But I do use it as a sort of framework when I need to get perspective on the latest developments in the field. It's shocking, sometimes, to realise that the present ecology of the Internet didn't exist a mere 10+ years ago. An entire generation of kids today don't even remember a time when there was no Wikipedia.

In the immediate future, I think we'll begin to see "cloud computing" become an increasing reality. Applications are likely to start moving away from standalone PCs and into servers on the Internet. Quite likely, your browser will become your operating system, depending on how the tussle between Google and Microsoft works out.

Other things are not as easy to predict. Five to eight years ago, I couldn't have forseen the proliferation of social-networking sites, for example. In fact, when this forum adopted the latest changes incorporating social-networking features, a number of us felt uncomfortable with them. Nonetheless, they have become a hit with a vast majority of our members.

Lesson learnt? Who knows how the Internet will look in three years' time, let alone five or more?
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Old 2009-07-29, 22:07   Link #4
Vexx
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i think the biggest thing is going to be "pervasiveness" in the near future. No one will any longer say "I'm going onto the Net" ... every communication device will in some way be net-enabled and many other appliances. People will often be unaware they're 'using the Internet'.

The biggest *obstacles* to pervasiveness are the broken business models both "the tubes" (telcos) and major content providers (studios, etc) keep trying to hogtie the system with. The idea that any connection goes two ways (create and consume content) scares the hell out of the 'entertainment gatekeepers'. The telcos are thrashing about as they sidestep best practices in a balkanized mess of short-vision business decisions. The US, in particular, is in danger of its corporate-ocracy driving the country into a permanent 'last place' while the rest of the techno-nations lunge into the 21st century. Looking at the ass-backward cost packaging of the communication options of my cellphone, for example, compels me to leave most of the features off that I might otherwise use.

((I define any business that isn't customer-centered as 'broken, which means most large corporations fail ))

Sidenote: I'm watching Charlie Rose interview our new Homeland Security chief..... okay, *I'm* almost 52 and *I* cringe when I hear people say "cyber-this" and "cyber-that". I've concluded that most people who use the term "cyber-" are hopelessly behind the curve. "Tubes", ya know.
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Old 2009-07-29, 22:15   Link #5
Yamada
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As much as I hate to say it, I have a feeling there will be an increased trend in purchasing items via the internet. Ebooks and/or streaming programs will likely become more commonplace as newer generations are so fixated to instant gratification. As such, vying for faster speeds will continue to be an issue. Internet piracy will continue to run rampant, and social networking will continue to merge with conventional communication techniques until it becomes commonplace.
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Old 2009-07-29, 22:22   Link #6
Claies
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Cloud computing seems to be on the way. I saw a research project (recently the guy published a paper) about a secure way to perform computation on encrypted files, which makes cloud computing a lot more reliable.

Maybe a "community cloud" can be made, sort of a generalized Folding@Home so that we have "Everything@Home"? People can sign up to contribute for whatever project they wish from a list of tasks that universities and small companies need help with processing. I guess it's a rather socialistic answer to Amazon's cloud.

Mobile internet, on the other hand, I have no clue. It keeps on surprising me. I dream of seeing augmented reality ala Eden of the East and Denno Coil someday.
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Old 2009-07-30, 02:19   Link #7
arenine
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Here is a video about the future of the internet by Kevin Kelly.

http://www.ted.com/talks/kevin_kelly...f_the_web.html
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Old 2009-07-30, 21:32   Link #8
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I would personally like to see the development of Michiko-san in real life - ghost data capable of (semi-)intelligent actions as a result of improved search capability and smarter choices by machines.

Realistically, physical limitations will hamper the growth of the internet in a way that will rework the current system of information and data transfer, resulting in a reworking of the current business model in many areas, from infrastructure to the consumer end. And beyond that? No idea.
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Old 2009-07-30, 22:13   Link #9
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Ted Stevens, Ex-Alaska Senator on Net Neutrality (2006)


This is how internet is referred to tubes... The size of the tubes represent how much bandwidth a connection have depending on the tube's diameter. His misunderstanding on net neutrality caused people to ridicule him for the misunderstanding of how the internet works. Net neutrality was a big issue in 2006 when congress tried to pass it, but was shot down until recently when the change of administration happened early this year which brought up net neutrality once again.

Net Neutrality is a hot button issue right now, ever since AT&T temporarily blocked 4chan and is currently considered by the FCC to enforce net neutrality, which will prevent any ISP from censoring or impair access to any website.
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Old 2009-07-31, 00:20   Link #10
Oppius
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The internet is the only place where nerds can bully those jocks and preps. Just look who inhabits in the "sewers of the internet" like 4chan, Uncyclopedia and Encyclopaedia Dramatica.

At least the jocks and preps can give them 'swirlie' at real-life back. The only cool thing about internet is anime and video game info/reviews. I'm not into politics either.
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Old 2009-07-31, 05:43   Link #11
-KarumA-
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Originally Posted by chikorita157 View Post
Ted Stevens, Ex-Alaska Senator on Net Neutrality (2006)


and yes 4chan is prob the best invention on the internet ever
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Old 2009-07-31, 07:17   Link #12
Ending
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The US, in particular, is in danger of its corporate-ocracy driving the country into a permanent 'last place' while the rest of the techno-nations lunge into the 21st century.
Don't count on it, since media-companies have a lot of power in EU too. Many countries, such as Britain and Finland, are starting to censor Internet access and France even has a RIAA-lobbyist as a president's wife. Not to forget all those silly media payments made from blank CDs, DVDs, HDDs, etc, etc... Inevitably they get something through in the EU-parlament and after that every EU-country drop to the same level as US.

I wouldn't be surprised if asian countries will be winners of the online world, since Japan is leading in the online access quality and the developing countries shouldn't be in no hurry to block access to free content. (And I mean both free and freedom.)
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Old 2009-07-31, 07:25   Link #13
Irenicus
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I wouldn't be surprised if asian countries will be winners of the online world, since Japan is leading in the online access quality and the developing countries shouldn't be in no hurry to block access to free content. (And I mean both free and freedom.)
Actually, China, you know...

Hmm.

Quite a few Japanese websites also has a tendency to ban non-Japanese IPs from using them. I wouldn't call that a free and borderless internet. Japanese corporations are also awfully powerful, even more so than in the USA.

Still, my bet is with the geeks. It's our natural habitat and we won't give up that easily! Screw the law we are anonymous!
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Old 2009-07-31, 07:41   Link #14
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In just over short years
lolwut?
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Originally Posted by Cipher View Post
Any future speculations about its development?
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Old 2009-07-31, 19:22   Link #15
chikorita157
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In the future, there will be another problem with the internet come 2011, the lack of IPv4 addresses. IPv4 addresses uses 4 groups of 3 digits (e.g. 192.168.1.1) which allows up to 4,294,967,296 possible addresses which someday can be all used up. The transition to IPv6 addresses allows more possible addresses with more groups and the use of hexadecimals, meaning letters can now be used in the addresses. Each group can have up to 4 hexadecimals. IPv6 also have newer technical features than IPv4. IPv6 is supported in the most recent OSes (e.g.: Mac OS X, Vista, Linux)
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Old 2009-07-31, 19:40   Link #16
Ichihara Asako
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Originally Posted by chikorita157 View Post
In the future, there will be another problem with the internet come 2011, the lack of IPv4 addresses. IPv4 addresses uses 4 groups of 3 digits (e.g. 192.168.1.1) which allows up to 4,294,967,296 possible addresses which someday can be all used up. The transition to IPv6 addresses allows more possible addresses with more groups and the use of hexadecimals, meaning letters can now be used in the addresses. Each group can have up to 4 hexadecimals. IPv6 also have newer technical features than IPv4. IPv6 is supported in the most recent OSes (e.g.: Mac OS X, Vista, Linux)
This is already being worked on. IPv6 has had preparation happening for several years now, most backbone and ISPs should already be in place for it, and some places are already using it. So no, it's not really going to be a problem, except maybe for old software that isn't updated to traverse IPv6 networking (eg games that only allow you to input IPv4 hosts) but there will probably be NAT-type solutions to deal with that anyhow. I really don't see it being an issue at all; more potentially problematic than Y2K, but nothing to stress over.
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Old 2009-08-19, 14:30   Link #17
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My speculation is the Internet (and the technology behind it) will reshape the general human and computer interaction. As you can see today, RIA (rich internet application) is getting closer to desktop application for "attractiveness" and performance. And with HTML5, looks like it's possible to create a "Crysis 3 on Firefox".
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