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Old 2009-10-14, 00:26   Link #1261
Kaisos Erranon
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
But I really can't see how there can really be a 19th person on the island without using a cheap trick...
There isn't. We know this for almost a fact. The only people we can truly suspect are the 16 people left who haven't been denied as culprits, or confirmed as dead.

The only problem is the constant "no more than X number" during the red declarations. Now that's suspicious.
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Old 2009-10-14, 01:18   Link #1262
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So the question becomes, who on the island would want to mess with Natsuhi, and possibly have the information to do so?

One would imagine this to be a short list, but rumors spread quickly over time.

People that should be ruled out:
Natsuhi (assuming she wasn't just imagining the whole thing),

Erika (she's only suppose to be in this game, and the detective...why would she call Natsuhi in a man's voice to threaten her?),

Battler (Supposedly the detective and it hasn't come up before...one would assume if it was Battler it would have come up by now).

Maria (aside from Horie Yui's vocal talents, who honestly believes that Maria can make her voice sound like an adult male?),

and Kinzo (he's dead).

This leaves:
Krauss = well he could want to mess with his wife's mind, but why? What does he gain? And why would he know about this?

Jessica = Practical joker? Can't see any other reason for Jessica to do this.

Shannon = Practical joker or some motive?

Kanon = Practical joker, some real motive...or really the boy involved?

Genji = He might actually know the truth about what happened. But why blackmail Natsuhi?

Kumasawa = Again might know the truth of what happened. But why blackmail? Though possible a practical joke...it would be a bad one, plus can she make her voice sound like a young male?

Gohda = Why? She hired him and he seems fairly happy with being the cook.

Nanjo = Might know the truth. Other than that, not enough informtion on why he'd do such a thing, even if he had the knowledge. Or manage to sound like a young male.

Rosa = Why would she know...or care. Seems way too stressed to think that clearly.

Eva = Why would she know, but blackmail would be in style to get to Natsuhi.

Hideyoshi = Not enough data. If he's involved one would expect him to be in it with Eva.

George = Possible, but again, why would he know this? Possible connection via Shannon. Question would be then, why bother Natsuhi? She's not done anything to George that I'm aware, unless its something to do with Shannon.

Rudolf = Could work, if he could find out the information. He can probably sound like a young male. He also has reason to want to blackmail Natsuhi (well Krauss actually, but whatever works).

Kyrie = Could work, at least in terms of being able to have sources to find the information. Can't say about her voice talent, but that would be what Rudolf is for.
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Old 2009-10-14, 01:38   Link #1263
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It could very well be Rudolf and Kyrie, as they do survive to the end of Ep5, for once. But would Rudolf really be that much of a bastard? (Don't answer that...)

But something in my gut just says it's Erika. To me, her motivations only make sense if she's trying to get revenge on Natsuhi for something... and if she isn't the man from 19 years ago, she might well be working with him.

Alternately, the voice Natsuhi talks to could very well be a recording... he did say something about how he came onto the island with Erika, correct? What if he came in the form of a recorded message?

He doesn't have to be on the island, after all.
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Old 2009-10-14, 02:23   Link #1264
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True, he doesn't have to be on the island to call Natsuhi...assuming the phone lines are still working.

(Rudolf doesn't have to be the bastard in this case...all you need is Kyrie to give a little push)

I'm still not sure on Erika...but then we don't know if this call is a one time only thing, or if this happens every time....or if it only happened in the First and Fifth arcs.
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Old 2009-10-14, 05:19   Link #1265
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I think it'd be okay to think that the mysterious man called in every game except maybe for the third. In the second, he called Natsuhi to the chapel, asked her to bring everyone else, and... Happy Halloween for Maria.
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Old 2009-10-14, 06:40   Link #1266
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Genji was the one in the first instance of the 19th person calling (and I think the second one too) to give Natsuhi the phone so she could speak to the 19th man. Unless it's a recording I doubt it's him.

Krauss I'm gonna say no. Remember, after the 5 bodies are found Natsuhi gets a call from the 19th man and you can hear Krauss on the other side, with the former claiming to have kidnapped him. Then Bern states in red later in the trial that Krauss was killed directly after that conversation.

Shannon might not be the caller (her voice is very soft and I doubt she could disguise it as a male) but she probably has something to do with the autumn card, since Natsuhi states in red (lol what) that she only told Shannon that autumn was her favorite season and we know Shannon has a good memory from EP 3.
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Old 2009-10-14, 07:06   Link #1267
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Actually the bigger suspicions I have are on Genji. For the first few times that the man calls it was to Genji, who then calls for Natsuhi. Considering the circumstances at the near inappropriate moments that the calls arrive, wouldn't you think that Genji would have some degree of suspicion about a sudden caller looking for Natsuhi out of the blue? Being the oldet and most trusted servant one can think he's best familiar with incoming and regular calls. The mere fact that almost every call made so far not done through each person's rooms was done with him answering. Every call essentially goes through him.

Then there's the matter of his death. The only link we have that he was "killed" by presumably the same culprit is the claim that Eva and Erika used the same door sealing method for the guest house and Genji's room. Maybe we can trust Erika's reasoning since she's the detective, but what about Eva? Erika only goes so far as to claim their similarities in red but doesn't eloborate much further on what exactly Eva did on Genji's room. All we know is that she sealed it too, but other than that we don't know. We can be certain that the door was sealed, but we don't know what else really happened before, prior or even during the moment of sealing. At that moment in time we were following Erika's actions in the guest house aside from Battler's, but most of everything Eva and to some extent Genji was doing at that same exact moment we are not shown.
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Old 2009-10-14, 07:14   Link #1268
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Actually the bigger suspicions I have are on Genji. For the first few times that the man calls it was to Genji, who then calls for Natsuhi. Considering the circumstances at the near inappropriate moments that the calls arrive, wouldn't you think that Genji would have some degree of suspicion about a sudden caller looking for Natsuhi out of the blue? Being the oldet and most trusted servant one can think he's best familiar with incoming and regular calls. The mere fact that almost every call made so far not done through each person's rooms was done with him answering. Every call essentially goes through him.

Then there's the matter of his death. The only link we have that he was "killed" by presumably the same culprit is the claim that Eva and Erika used the same door sealing method for the guest house and Genji's room. Maybe we can trust Erika's reasoning since she's the detective, but what about Eva? Erika only goes so far as to claim their similarities in red but doesn't eloborate much further on what exactly Eva did on Genji's room. All we know is that she sealed it too, but other than that we don't know. We can be certain that the door was sealed, but we don't know what else really happened before, prior or even during the moment of sealing. At that moment in time we were following Erika's actions in the guest house aside from Battler's, but most of everything Eva and to some extent Genji was doing at that same exact moment we are not shown.

On the matter of Genji's "Death"... How can we be SURE he's alive to begin with? The mysterious 19th man/19th person/Killer/Mastermind could slip in if Kinzo's most trusted aide followed him to the grave before the game began.
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Old 2009-10-14, 07:19   Link #1269
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On the matter of Genji's "Death"... How can we be SURE he's alive to begin with? The mysterious 19th man/19th person/Killer/Mastermind could slip in if Kinzo's most trusted aide followed him to the grave before the game began.
Yeah, but since more people have seen and been with him, hiding his "true" identity would be harder. Plus, would the imposter really go so far as to adopt Genji's characteristic "to hell and back" devotion to Kinzo's will that closely? So much so that he dies immediately in Ep3?
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Old 2009-10-14, 07:22   Link #1270
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Yeah, but since more people have seen and been with him, hiding his "true" identity would be harder. Plus, would the imposter really go so far as to adopt Genji's characteristic "to hell and back" devotion to Kinzo's will that closely? So much so that he dies immediately in Ep3?
Well, as I've said, it seems to me that EP3 was contaminated by a third party,

Spoiler for Higurashi spoilers:


So it shouldn't be compared as deeply with the other episodes. That is, to look for the flaws in the pattern instead of what fits.

However, thinking of it that way, EP1's First Twilighter probably couldn't do much for a while afterwards, hence the sudden face-mauling with the servants after Natsuhi chased them out. Genji was with everyone for quite a while, and EP3 mentions the servants skill at being unnoticed.

EP4's overall killer seems to be him, since everyone got their faces blown off, and he didn't even bother properly staking them.
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Old 2009-10-14, 07:41   Link #1271
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Yes, but that doesn't mean he was a detective in the same sense. In other words, there's no guarantee that he had to follow these 'detective rules', only that there has to be some clue that he isn't the 'detective' in EP5.

Edit: By the way, I'm not sure Dlanor even knows the truth here. I'm just saying it's possible.
Honestly this is the kind of thing that I don't really like. Unfortunately I can't say it can be completely ruled out, and I've seen many instances where this is possible and plausible. But in the end it all comes to one thing: a problem of definition.

"Killed" maybe doesn't mean "killed"
"people" maybe doesn't include "furniture"
"detective" maybe doesn't mean "detective" as in ep5

I don't like these. This kind of reasoning defies the purpose of the red truths. They are supposed to help us, not trick us. If a red truth blatantly tricks us, then what's the purpose? Any red truth can be dismantled and turned inside out if you change the definition of the words.

And yet I have to admit there is probably a trick like that somewhere. Maybe I could pass on "magic" being mentioned in a red truth, but if it has to do with something that was never questioned before, then I'll feel betrayed.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
There isn't. We know this for almost a fact. The only people we can truly suspect are the 16 people left who haven't been denied as culprits, or confirmed as dead.

The only problem is the constant "no more than X number" during the red declarations. Now that's suspicious.
The explanation I see is the fact that dead people do not count as people. That's something I always thought and it found confirmation in ep5. Beatrice can't say an exact number in this case.

The first time she said it 6 people were already dead (including Kinzo), she couldn't possibly say "There are only 18 people in this island" neither she could say "There are only 17 people in this island", both of them would have been false at that time.

Also she can say "There are no more than 17 people on Rokkenjima, this apply to all games", but she cannot say that "there are exactly 17 people on Rokkenjima, this apply to all games", because the number isn't constant, it gets lower and lower as time passes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
It could very well be Rudolf and Kyrie, as they do survive to the end of Ep5, for once. But would Rudolf really be that much of a bastard? (Don't answer that...)
Personally I don't think it can be Rudolf. This "young man" introduced himself by using "ore". Later on he uses "boku". I don't think this is Ryukishi's error, so it must be an error of the person who makes the calls. And if Ryukishi made this error so evident, then it must be a clue.

Changing the way of talking was a poor move from this "prank caller", Lucky for him, Natsuhi doesn't prove to be very witty (if she was smart she would have thought that the "aki" card was a cheap trick). Anyway this "boku" was an error, therefore this person is acting, he's playing a part and he forgot a particular about his part.

If you think it this way, it can't possibly be Rudolf. Because Rudolf would never accidentally use "boku" instead of "ore".
It doesn't work the other way around. Let's say from the beginning the actor was supposed to use "boku" but he mistakingly used "ore", even if he later noticed this, it was better to keep consistent.

Another explanation is that there are two different persons playing this part. However yet again I can't see how the "boku" person could be Rudolf. He can be the first caller though.

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Originally Posted by Workworkwork View Post
On the matter of Genji's "Death"... How can we be SURE he's alive to begin with? The mysterious 19th man/19th person/Killer/Mastermind could slip in if Kinzo's most trusted aide followed him to the grave before the game began.
You mean that the genji we see is actually an impostor?
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Old 2009-10-14, 11:33   Link #1272
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Honestly this is the kind of thing that I don't really like. Unfortunately I can't say it can be completely ruled out, and I've seen many instances where this is possible and plausible. But in the end it all comes to one thing: a problem of definition.

"Killed" maybe doesn't mean "killed"
"people" maybe doesn't include "furniture"
"detective" maybe doesn't mean "detective" as in ep5

I don't like these. This kind of reasoning defies the purpose of the red truths. They are supposed to help us, not trick us. If a red truth blatantly tricks us, then what's the purpose? Any red truth can be dismantled and turned inside out if you change the definition of the words.

And yet I have to admit there is probably a trick like that somewhere. Maybe I could pass on "magic" being mentioned in a red truth, but if it has to do with something that was never questioned before, then I'll feel betrayed.
Eva-Beatrice's red web from episode 3 proves that some red text only exist to trick us. I agree that you must keep an open mind to the possibility that the detective rules do not apply to games 1 through 4.

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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
The explanation I see is the fact that dead people do not count as people. That's something I always thought and it found confirmation in ep5. Beatrice can't say an exact number in this case.

The first time she said it 6 people were already dead (including Kinzo), she couldn't possibly say "There are only 18 people in this island" neither she could say "There are only 17 people in this island", both of them would have been false at that time.

Also she can say "There are no more than 17 people on Rokkenjima, this apply to all games", but she cannot say that "there are exactly 17 people on Rokkenjima, this apply to all games", because the number isn't constant, it gets lower and lower as time passes.
Huh? For me, episode 5 did the opposite for confirming the number of people on the island. We could have got something useful like: After the game begins no factors from outside the island can enter or affect the game. (That's not a real red, of course)

Instead, we actually do get someone entering the island after the game begins.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Personally I don't think it can be Rudolf. This "young man" introduced himself by using "ore". Later on he uses "boku". I don't think this is Ryukishi's error, so it must be an error of the person who makes the calls. And if Ryukishi made this error so evident, then it must be a clue.

Changing the way of talking was a poor move from this "prank caller", Lucky for him, Natsuhi doesn't prove to be very witty (if she was smart she would have thought that the "aki" card was a cheap trick). Anyway this "boku" was an error, therefore this person is acting, he's playing a part and he forgot a particular about his part.

If you think it this way, it can't possibly be Rudolf. Because Rudolf would never accidentally use "boku" instead of "ore".
It doesn't work the other way around. Let's say from the beginning the actor was supposed to use "boku" but he mistakingly used "ore", even if he later noticed this, it was better to keep consistent.

Another explanation is that there are two different persons playing this part. However yet again I can't see how the "boku" person could be Rudolf. He can be the first caller though.?
Two different callers is a good theory that I agree with. As you said, the big clue is the change between using 僕 and 俺.

One of the callers has to be someone with access to the keys because the guest room that the caller told Natsuhi to hide in was unlocked.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Workworkwork View Post
On the matter of Genji's "Death"... How can we be SURE he's alive to begin with? The mysterious 19th man/19th person/Killer/Mastermind could slip in if Kinzo's most trusted aide followed him to the grave before the game began.
Could you provide a clue as to why someone would disguise as Genji?
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Old 2009-10-14, 11:36   Link #1273
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Huh? For me, episode 5 did the opposite for confirming the number of people on the island. We could have got something useful like: After the game begins no factors from outside the island can enter or affect the game. (That's not a real red, of course)
It confirmed that dead people do not count in the number limit.
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Old 2009-10-14, 11:47   Link #1274
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Eva-Beatrice's red web from episode 3 proves that some red text only exist to trick us. I agree that you must keep an open mind to the possibility that the detective rules do not apply to games 1 through 4.



Huh? For me, episode 5 did the opposite for confirming the number of people on the island. We could have got something useful like: After the game begins no factors from outside the island can enter or affect the game. (That's not a real red, of course)

Instead, we actually do get someone entering the island after the game begins.



Two different callers is a good theory that I agree with. As you said, the big clue is the change between using 僕 and 俺.

One of the callers has to be someone with access to the keys because the guest room that the caller told Natsuhi to hide in was unlocked.



Could you provide a clue as to why someone would disguise as Genji?

Why would someone disguise as Genji? Hmm, I'm not sure, but here's something for starters...

Some Person X had a relationship or close friendship with Genji, possibly a familial connection. Genji mentions to them how he's upset at Kinzos' desecration, but dies of a heart attack before he can explain why. Distraught, Person X vows to avenge Genji by... murdering everybody on the island.
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Old 2009-10-14, 11:58   Link #1275
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Honestly this is the kind of thing that I don't really like. Unfortunately I can't say it can be completely ruled out, and I've seen many instances where this is possible and plausible. But in the end it all comes to one thing: a problem of definition.

"Killed" maybe doesn't mean "killed"
"people" maybe doesn't include "furniture"
"detective" maybe doesn't mean "detective" as in ep5

I don't like these. This kind of reasoning defies the purpose of the red truths. They are supposed to help us, not trick us. If a red truth blatantly tricks us, then what's the purpose? Any red truth can be dismantled and turned inside out if you change the definition of the words.

And yet I have to admit there is probably a trick like that somewhere. Maybe I could pass on "magic" being mentioned in a red truth, but if it has to do with something that was never questioned before, then I'll feel betrayed.
You're right, I should have put this differently: Battler was a detective in the previous games, but the Knox rules themselves apply only to EP5. Therefore the fact that Battler was the detective is insignificant (unless there are other detective rules we don't know about).
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Old 2009-10-14, 12:06   Link #1276
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There is better, however I think that the rule that the detective can't be the culprit still apply. Else the use of that info by Dlanor in that context was a sort of cheat on the level of Lambda's and Bern's.

Dlanor said she hates such tricks and dishonesty I don't want to think she can do those herself.

Beatrice probably has never followed the Dlanor rules herself, however if by chance she made a game where the rules are respected, Dlanor can make use of that.

So if Dlanor used the fact that Battler was the detective in previous episodes as a way to demonstrate he can't possibly be the culprit, that means he isn't and wasn't.

And then I can't really think of Battler being the culprit, this goes beyond the mere facts described in the story.

The Knox rules delineate the difference from bad writing and good writing, Ryukishi can't possibly have shown to us a weapon to claim he is a bad writer in the end.

There's no way Battler is the culprit. That would be bad writing.
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Old 2009-10-14, 12:49   Link #1277
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There is better, however I think that the rule that the detective can't be the culprit still apply. Else the use of that info by Dlanor in that context was a sort of cheat on the level of Lambda's and Bern's.

Dlanor said she hates such tricks and dishonesty I don't want to think she can do those herself.

Beatrice probably has never followed the Dlanor rules herself, however if by chance she made a game where the rules are respected, Dlanor can make use of that.

So if Dlanor used the fact that Battler was the detective in previous episodes as a way to demonstrate he can't possibly be the culprit, that means he isn't and wasn't.

And then I can't really think of Battler being the culprit, this goes beyond the mere facts described in the story.

The Knox rules delineate the difference from bad writing and good writing, Ryukishi can't possibly have shown to us a weapon to claim he is a bad writer in the end.

There's no way Battler is the culprit. That would be bad writing.
Well, I think it's risky to make such overarching claims about bad writing. If Ryuukishi can pull it off well, there are many Knox rules he could break and still have things work. Remember, the Knox rules are designed for the detective genre, where it's supposed to be possible to solve at the end of the book. Ryuukishi's designing a game which will be discussed over the internet for 3 years before he gives the answer. I think he has some license to break some of the detective conventions, though he still has to give us enough hints to guess.

Also, remember that "Umineko" does not, and has never claimed to, follow the Knox rules in the slightest. Those rules only apply to the game board, if anywhere.

Like I said earlier, I doubt Dlanor would say something like that intentionally, though we know that she's forced to obey Bern's and Erika's orders. My guess is that Dlanor is 'furniture' too, a metaphor for some vessel in the real world. If what we hear about the stakes in the EP5 tea party is true, Dlanor might truly believe that the Knox rules apply when they don't always (just like she seems to think she's Knox's daughter or something).
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Old 2009-10-14, 13:46   Link #1278
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I can think of a few movies where the culprit ended up being the protagonist or the narrator, and in some cases it turned out nice. But in Umineko considering how things were set it sounds terribly wrong to me to see Battler as the culprit.

Even more so after Battler claimed he was the culprit of ep5. What are we going to see? "Remember the end of ep5 when I said I was the culprit? Yeah well that was true!" lame...

The revelation of the culprit should be a shocking event.
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Old 2009-10-14, 13:53   Link #1279
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I highly doubt Battler is the culprit, that's just silly imo. Forget detective laws apply to all games and stuff - Battler has an alibi for nearly every murder that has ever happened in the past games, including EP 5. And it's stated in red that he's not the culprit, by Virgilia.

If Dlanor is a magical representation of another character I'd pin her as Kyrie. Kyrie is known for having good logical reasoning like Battler, but her style is more cleaner and doesn't seem to stretch that far into crazy stuff (i.e: small bombs). Dlanor seems to follow a similar style and is very rules oreintated (not letting herself use 'Kinzo is dead' as a defense against Battler and Beato in the study, because it goes against the rule that meta-knowledge isn't allowed as a defense)
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Old 2009-10-14, 15:43   Link #1280
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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
It could very well be Rudolf and Kyrie, as they do survive to the end of Ep5, for once. But would Rudolf really be that much of a bastard? (Don't answer that...)

But something in my gut just says it's Erika. To me, her motivations only make sense if she's trying to get revenge on Natsuhi for something... and if she isn't the man from 19 years ago, she might well be working with him.

Alternately, the voice Natsuhi talks to could very well be a recording... he did say something about how he came onto the island with Erika, correct? What if he came in the form of a recorded message?

He doesn't have to be on the island, after all.
The problem here is that Knox was invoked against the mysterious caller for precisely the reason that some mysterious figure off the island who hasn't been mentioned before is not permitted. Thus, we have to conclude one of several things:

1) The mysterious caller is one of the other people who have been on the island all along, as Battler theorizes. Knox is not violated because we have met this person before. Suspicion would fall heavily on Kanon or George, as it seems unlikely the pronoun slip would happen with an older man. Kanon is most likely as he fits Battler's conditions when trying to accuse himself (like Battler, he has uncertain parentage, and previous episodes make circumstances about him mysterious). Even if it's a recording that arrived with Erika (this seems very unlikely as Erika surviving at all was deemed a miracle and didn't happen the first 4 games), the caller isn't lying when he says he's on the island. I think it's more likely the man is calling himself, though.

2) The mysterious caller is not on the island, but something else presented in ep1-4 forecasted his existence, and he has agents on the island. The only real examples I can think of are the mysterious letters and the payouts, and maybe the bank boxes that Ange learns about in ep4. However, these elements don't really start appearing until ep3/4. If we go strictly by Knox, halfway through the question arcs seems like a bit of a dubious time to be introducing a new element. This isn't a Knox problem if the person masterminding all these things is one of the people on the island, but if it's a person off the island previously unnamed, I'm very wary of supporting the theory.

3) Natsuhi really did make the whole thing up. It's not implausible, is it? Who else would have known about the incident besides the servant who supposedly died, Natsuhi and Krauss themselves, and Kinzo? Maybe the servant and the baby really did die, and nobody found out. Maybe Natsuhi is just guild-ridden over it.

On a related note, what was Kinzo's purpose in giving a child to Natsuhi in the first place? If Kinzo never did show Natsuhi kindness when he was alive, then he wasn't doing it out of the goodness of his heart. He'd know that a son raised by Krauss would be Krauss's heir. But he has three other children, and George was already born at that point. Why cut George out of the headship in favor of an illegitimate child? Even if the child carried his blood, it can't have been the child of one of his four known children. Why was Kinzo willing to do this? Possible theories:

1) The child was "Beatrice's" or something. Either the child of a child he had with his Beatrice or the child of the 1967 "Beatrice" Rosa killed met. To Kinzo, this bloodline was more precious to him than anything, but it had to remain hidden from his wife and children. Thus Natsuhi was entrusted with his "true" heir, who would be raised as Krauss's son and thus inherit the family.

2) Kinzo has always hated family rank and is well aware he essentially became the Ushiromiya head by accident. He doesn't care if some bastard child inherits the family name and fortune. This still seems odd though, given how important the family crest is to him and how he doesn't permit non-blood relations to bear it.

Last edited by Renall; 2009-10-14 at 16:00.
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