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Old 2009-10-17, 04:17   Link #1341
Kaisos Erranon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kaitwospirit View Post
In 1998, Ange talks to a Rokkenjima enthusiast who has seen the handwriting on one of the message bottles. He tells her that there were several letters found. This is in the episode three continuity. I don't know if there's any letter that directly corresponds to episode one or episode two, can't find that in the game script, but the point is that the messages in a bottle must have been written before the events of October 4-5.
I'm pretty sure the details of two of the letters were given... they matched up with Episodes 1 and 2.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
....

So how would that work? A letter written before the "crimes" asking someone to find out what really happened, is sent out in a bottle, before anything happens?

It had details about what happened too, didn't it?
The explanation the game offered, if I recall correctly, was that Rokkenjima is stuck in some kind of quantum singularity or summat, where all the events of every game happen at once. Or something.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kaitwospirit View Post
Whoever wrote the letters was very certain that everyone would die, at least.
Like I said, the details given corresponded to Episodes 1 and 2, I'm pretty sure. There is absolutely no reason why they must have been written before Oct. 4/5.
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Old 2009-10-17, 04:25   Link #1342
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
I don't understand why you are concluding that the letters in the bottles must have been written before the events of October 4-5. There is nothing that confirms that the person who wrote the letters died during the incident. The fisherman found the first bottle many years after the incident.
It's discussed while Ange is talking to the enthusiast to some extent. The letters are extremely long and not rushed, and anyone living through the events as described in the letters would simply not have time to sit down and write something so long.

I assume that they were not written afterward because of the problem of Eva's survival. The goal of the letters was to offer a witch-oriented explanation of the events of October 4th and 5th. If someone wanted these letters taken as a description of the actual events of October 4-5 rather than a mere curiosity, and they knew that someone had survived those two days when they wrote the letters, then they would have incorporated that person's survival into them. Eva's very public survival suggests their author had no way to predict anyone might live. The fact that the money letters were sent out to the next-of-kin on the 3rd supports this: no one was planned to survive and this was believed ahead of time.

It could very well take many years for a letter placed in a bottle to wash up on land again anywhere. In fact, the odds are very good that it will never wash up again at all. This is probably why there were many of them.

You could argue, I guess, that the letters were written on the 6th while Eva was hiding or something. That's why I initially said that the letters were no help in figuring things out either way: they don't provide a useful clue to their author's survival. They could have been written at either point. I tend to believe that they were written before the incident, though, like the money letters, simply because the money letters indicate a great deal of planning and time and the belief that no one would survive, just like the letters in bottles, and we know that the money letters were written before the 4th.

Also, and I feel like I'm kind of being mean, but I cannot find anything about the letters corresponding to episodes one and two anywhere in the game script. Are you sure? Can you give me somewhere to look?

Last edited by kaitwospirit; 2009-10-17 at 04:35. Reason: question
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Old 2009-10-17, 04:31   Link #1343
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I have thought about something if those letter were written before the incident why arent Anges name in the letters, no one could have predicted that she would get sick, right?
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Old 2009-10-17, 04:38   Link #1344
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HanyuuChan View Post
I have thought about something if those letter were written before the incident why arent Anges name in the letters, no one could have predicted that she would get sick, right?
I'd say, since she was getting a next-of-kin money letter... it's quite possible someone did predict that. Way back in episode one, it says that Ange is vomiting. There are a lot of ways to make someone vomit that don't involve germs...
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Old 2009-10-17, 04:39   Link #1345
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Hmmmm.

Could the letter the the equivelent to the 34 File in Higurashi? Something that gets the theorists all worked up over, but only has a hint of truth behind it?

Or is it the real deal...but written by a survivor....or at least someone that managed to live a little longer than everyone else, but still died before help arrived? Or written by someone who was in on the crime, but didn't go to the island...at least not until after the fact?

Or written beforehand, by someone who knew what was about to happen...perhaps someone that wanted to say something but couldn't...or someone that felt guilty.
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Old 2009-10-17, 05:14   Link #1346
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kaitwospirit View Post
I'd say, since she was getting a next-of-kin money letter... it's quite possible someone did predict that. Way back in episode one, it says that Ange is vomiting. There are a lot of ways to make someone vomit that don't involve germs...
Isnt Kyrie or Rudolph the prime suspects then, I dont think that anyone else could have given Ange something. And I also cant think about a reason that anyone else could have wanted Ange alive for some reason.
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Old 2009-10-17, 05:19   Link #1347
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HanyuuChan View Post
Isnt Kyrie or Rudolph the prime suspects then, I dont think that anyone else could have given Ange something. And I also cant think about a reason that anyone else could have wanted Ange alive for some reason.
Yeah, if Ange was poisoned in some way, Kyrie and Rudolf look pretty bad.

Or maybe she did really get sick but there was still time. There must have been a stretch of time of at least a day or two when it was known that both Ange was too sick to go to the island, but Battler was actually going to show up that year...

Umineko makes my head hurt.
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Old 2009-10-17, 05:26   Link #1348
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Another thing about kyrie and rudolf is...

Spoiler for ep5:
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Old 2009-10-17, 05:53   Link #1349
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kaitwospirit View Post
I'd say, since she was getting a next-of-kin money letter... it's quite possible someone did predict that. Way back in episode one, it says that Ange is vomiting. There are a lot of ways to make someone vomit that don't involve germs...
Spoiler for Ange's sickness:
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Old 2009-10-17, 05:55   Link #1350
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Old 2009-10-17, 07:41   Link #1351
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Quote:
Originally Posted by desirebluesky View Post
sounds like separate entities to me. if they were "the same" he couldn't do that.
like i said, there's probably the promise person she's originating from. but she's not quite the same as her.
and nobody had anything against piece!Battler and meta!Battler beeing like that. .
Well I guess it depends on how you look at it ^^;
What I'm saying is that Beatrice is a "fake personality" in the way that Jessica describes it in ep1. It is like when a child pretends to be someone else. In this case killing Beatrice wouldn't actually be anything sad, it would actually mean that the person behind Beatrice would drop her mask and be herself. But if Beatrice was like Bernkastel, an entity born from a human, her death would be a sad event.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
To be honest I can't remember that scene with Ange and Nanjo's son. I think that's where they mention Beatrice's signature in Maria's book matched the letter in the bottle handwriting. I'll have to reread that chapter.

Edit: Here it is. When Ange was talking to Nanjo's son:

Spoiler for Handwriting:
That's another matter. This screen only demonstrates that the letters with the bank account number were sent by Beatrice. But we were talking about the messages in the bottle.

However we somehow have a confirmation from professor Ootsuki for that matter. He claims he has seen the original letters, and when Ange shows him the handwriting of Beatrice on Maria's diary he becomes pale and begs Ange to let him see the book.
He doesn't say straight away that the handwriting is the same, but it is heavily hinted so.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
The fisherman found the first bottle many years after the incident.
This needs a clarification:

Quote:
Later on, it was confirmed that a similar message bottle had been recovered from the nearby ocean on the day of the accident by the police in their search for lost articles, and this caused a sensation.

It seems that, due to the situation at the time and the fact that the bottle was sealed, the police had decided that its likelihood of being a fabrication was low, and that it had been abandoned within several days before the accident. And the handwriting for both matched. This caused the credibility of the scraps of paper discovered by the fisherman to rise.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kaitwospirit View Post
I assume that they were not written afterward because of the problem of Eva's survival. The goal of the letters was to offer a witch-oriented explanation of the events of October 4th and 5th. If someone wanted these letters taken as a description of the actual events of October 4-5 rather than a mere curiosity, and they knew that someone had survived those two days when they wrote the letters, then they would have incorporated that person's survival into them. Eva's very public survival suggests their author had no way to predict anyone might live. The fact that the money letters were sent out to the next-of-kin on the 3rd supports this: no one was planned to survive and this was believed ahead of time.
This kind of reasoning doesn't work. It was said that the two letters greatly differ in the way they describe the events. So your assumption that their purpose was to give an accurate description of the events that happened on October 4 and 5 is wrong. There is also the ending to consider. The writer who claims to be Maria is asking the reader to find the truth, which is a blatant confession that the story she told is fake.

I agree that the letters were written before the events of October 4 and 5 (hell there's huge evidence of that), however you are on the wrong track.


EDIT

Now that I look at it... this part is definitely suspicious:

Quote:
親族たち18人は台風で島に閉じ込められた
In the beginning, the 18 relatives are sealed up on the island by the typhoon.
Forget about the fact that they weren't "18 relatives", the point is the stories in the letters say there were only 18 people on that island.

Either... in those stories Ange doesn't appear, or one of the 18 we know isn't included.

In the first case, I find it very odd. It would be an incredibly important hint, and Ange herself should wonder about that since it involves her in first person. This person knew that Ange wouldn't attend the meeting... and several days before... If it was just the day before as in the case of the bank account letter, that could have been still explainable somehow, also the letter was actually sent to Rudolf, so it could have gone to any relative not just Ange.

If it is the other case, who is missing?
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Old 2009-10-17, 12:30   Link #1352
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
To be honest I can't remember that scene with Ange and Nanjo's son. I think that's where they mention Beatrice's signature in Maria's book matched the letter in the bottle handwriting. I'll have to reread that chapter.

Edit: Here it is. When Ange was talking to Nanjo's son:

Spoiler for Handwriting:
That's another matter. This screen only demonstrates that the letters with the bank account number were sent by Beatrice. But we were talking about the messages in the bottle.

However we somehow have a confirmation from professor Ootsuki for that matter. He claims he has seen the original letters, and when Ange shows him the handwriting of Beatrice on Maria's diary he becomes pale and begs Ange to let him see the book.
He doesn't say straight away that the handwriting is the same, but it is heavily hinted so.
It is not another matter. The screenshot shows that Ange compared that handwriting to that in Maria's notebook to confirm:
The money letters handwriting = Beatrice's handwriting

Ange confirmed earlier that:
The message in the bottle handwriting = Beatrice's handwriting

Therefore, as kaitwospirit wrote, the letter in the bottle was written in the same handwriting as the money letters and the writing in Maria's notebook.

That screenshot was only confirmation for the letter in the bottle of the continuation of the episode 3 story line.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
The fisherman found the first bottle many years after the incident.
This needs a clarification:
Quote:
Later on, it was confirmed that a similar message bottle had been recovered from the nearby ocean on the day of the accident by the police in their search for lost articles, and this caused a sensation.

It seems that, due to the situation at the time and the fact that the bottle was sealed, the police had decided that its likelihood of being a fabrication was low, and that it had been abandoned within several days before the accident. And the handwriting for both matched. This caused the credibility of the scraps of paper discovered by the fisherman to rise.
The first bottle from episode 1 was found many years after the incident. Regardless of the time other bottles from later episodes were found, here is the screenshot that confirms the truth:

Spoiler for The truth about the first bottle:
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Old 2009-10-17, 12:48   Link #1353
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HanyuuChan View Post
I have thought about something if those letter were written before the incident why arent Anges name in the letters, no one could have predicted that she would get sick, right?
they probably informed them beforehand. it doesn't give the writer much time though, probably 3-2 days at most, i doubt they could predict she would still have it on the conference if it was a longer period of time, unless she had some super long diaharreas in past.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
If it is the other case, who is missing?
Kinzo?
doesn't make that much sense since the incident actualy covers up the time of his death...
or Battler, in case Beatrice didn't know he will appear. i doubt it though.
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Old 2009-10-17, 13:23   Link #1354
Jan-Poo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
It is not another matter. The screenshot shows that Ange compared that handwriting to that in Maria's notebook to confirm:
The money letters handwriting = Beatrice's handwriting

Ange confirmed earlier that:
The message in the bottle handwriting = Beatrice's handwriting

Therefore, as kaitwospirit wrote, the letter in the bottle was written in the same handwriting as the money letters and the writing in Maria's notebook.

That screenshot was only confirmation for the letter in the bottle of the continuation of the episode 3 story line.
Ssol this screenshot only confirms that the letter sent to Nanjo is written with the same handwriting in Maria's diary. it doesn't prove anything else.

Ange did not confirm anything about the message in the bottle. She has never seen it!

If you want to prove that the message in the bottle is written with the same handwriting seen in Maria's diary, then provide the screenshot of what Professor Ootsuki says.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
The first bottle from episode 1 was found many years after the incident. Regardless of the time other bottles from later episodes were found, here is the screenshot that confirms the truth:
I never said that this particular statement was wrong. But you used this fact as way to claim that it is impossible to state that the message in the bottles where written before the Rokkenjima incident.

Sorry but this is irrelevant, because a message in the bottle was found on the very same day of the incident. This proves without any doubt that at least one message in the bottle was written before the incident and not after.
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Old 2009-10-17, 13:34   Link #1355
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Forget about the fact that they weren't "18 relatives", the point is the stories in the letters say there were only 18 people on that island.

Either... in those stories Ange doesn't appear, or one of the 18 we know isn't included.

In the first case, I find it very odd. It would be an incredibly important hint, and Ange herself should wonder about that since it involves her in first person. This person knew that Ange wouldn't attend the meeting... and several days before... If it was just the day before as in the case of the bank account letter, that could have been still explainable somehow, also the letter was actually sent to Rudolf, so it could have gone to any relative not just Ange.

If it is the other case, who is missing?
Well maybe the writer expected Battler not to come and had luck with Ange getting sick..
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Old 2009-10-17, 13:47   Link #1356
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Yeah but the writer must have mentioned all the people that where there, from the way they talk about them they look like detailed narration of the events written in a diary-like format and they include fantastic stories of witches and demons as culprits.

Whatever the content of those letter is, it is certainly something worth of mention, however we are left on dark...

Supposing the letters where written a few days before the incident, the expected number of people should have been 19. But they are 18. If they were written even before then yeah Battler would have been omitted. But I don't think that's the case.
Battler is certainly a central element of this mystery, so "Beatrice" probably didn't even start her plan before knowing that he would go to this family meeting.

The most logical assumption is that she omitted Ange. However how did she know? And why nobody points out how suspicious this fact is? The content of those letters were even shown in magazines.

Another possibility is that there is a person whose existence was never disclosed to the public. This could be a point in favor of the shkannon theory. But then "Gretel" should have reacted to this person that wasn't supposed to be there in ep4.

In the end the most probable scenario is that Beatrice knew that Ange wouldn't attend the meeting and she didn't include her in the story.
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Old 2009-10-17, 14:29   Link #1357
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I think there's enough time on the 2nd/3rd leading up to the events to write the messages. If the letters were one of the last parts of the plan to fall into place, they could've been wrapped up, stuffed in bottles, and set loose a day or two before.

This assumes we can trust certain things, such as:

1) The letters in the bottles described episodes 1 and 2. Nothing explicitly states this. It barely matters, since the letters describe magical events where everyone dies and everyone dies in 1 and 2. However, if the letters did mention Ange being there and Battler not being there, they wouldn't be about ep1 or 2. But if they did, Ange ought to have noted this ("The letters said I would die, but I wasn't even there" or something).

2) The events of ep3 are what actually happened in the scenario where Eva survived. We just sort of trust that Ange-1998 is from the ep3 world, but "Eva Survives = ep3 Continuity" could be a trick. Again, I suppose it doesn't matter.

3) Everything Ange found out in ep4 is true. I don't really see any reason for anyone to mislead her about the information they had, so I think this is probable.

However, if true (and it probably is) this all speaks to a very curious set of complications, namely:

1) The writer of the message bottles/payout letters knew that Ange would not attend the conference, and that Battler would. If the events describe all 18 people on the island dying, and Battler is included and Ange isn't, this has to be true. This means...

2) If someone intentionally kept Ange from going, they must have had access to her, or were conspiring with someone who did. As far as we know, Rudolf's family does not live anywhere that near Rokkenjima, and she wasn't visited by anyone familiar (or she doesn't remember such and nobody in the games suggests it). The only people who seem to have had any access to her leading up to the 4th were Battler, Rudolf, Kyrie, and her grandfather. But none of these people can also be the letter writer because...

3) The writer of the letters was in Nijima on the 3rd. That's when the payout letters were postmarked. Battler's entire family (minus Ange and the grandfather) traveled there on the morning of the 4th. This plus Maria's frequent contact with "Beatrice" on the island leads me to believe the person who wrote the letters and message bottles is one of the people who lives or works on Rokkenjima, but has excuses to go back to Nijima on a regular basis. This would include Kanon and Shannon (they have days off), Jessica (goes to school there), and Kumasawa (she has days off, and her family lives there). I suppose Nanjo is also a possibility.

4) The writer doesn't seem to know that Kinzo is dead. Think about it. His behavior is consistent with someone who is not aware of the conspiracy to cover up his death. Kinzo almost never interacts with people who aren't likely to be in on the conspiracy, which makes sense if you were outside the conspiracy because those are the only people "he" meets with after his death. But he does sometimes. Rosa and Shannon claim to have met with Kinzo in ep2. We could take this to mean they are lying, but why would Rosa cover up Kinzo's death if she discovered it, or fail to mention his disappearance if she never saw him? If the writer actually believed Kinzo never leaving his study = Kinzo stays alive, it makes sense, but that puts us in an unenviable position of assuming at least one of the previous games is itself fictional and thus not directly useful in solving the mystery. That's a bit confusing, to say the least. But it might still be true. Also there's the whole Goldsmith thing.

The alternative is to reject that the letters in the bottles actually describe ep1 and ep2 at all, and we're just led to believe that because Ange relates what their contents described. But Ange would have no way of identifying that the events described were episodes that had actually happened. This is probable, since ep1 mentions Natsuhi's Kinzo delusion, and that scene has no purpose to anyone who doesn't know about Kinzo or Natsuhi's situation. That's something I don't think an actual human actor can know, only a narrator. Then again, there is the man from 19 years ago...

The final issue to surmount is:

5) The letter writer has an enormous amount of money. Those payouts aren't cheap. Even if the only ones that actually had money were the ones Ange and the younger Dr. Nanjo opened, that's still quite a bit. Someone who is poor is not just conjuring up hundreds of millions of yen to put in safe deposit boxes at a prestigious bank. Most of the family are in financial troubles. Most of the children are dependent on their parents. However... servants are noted to be extremely well-paid in Kinzo's service. They usually quit after a few years and have a good amount of money afterwards.

Shannon has been working there for 10 years.

Just how well does Kinzo pay?
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Old 2009-10-17, 14:41   Link #1358
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Re your point 4: The scene where Rosa visits Kinzo is not shown, unlike all the other Kinzo scenes. I think that Rosa never even went to the study (she was killing Jessica at that time), and backed up Shannon / Genji's story in an attempt to create an alibi.

Also, the person only needs to visit Niijima once; anybody on the island (or Nanjo) could do it in the course of "just running errands".
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Old 2009-10-17, 15:27   Link #1359
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Ssol this screenshot only confirms that the letter sent to Nanjo is written with the same handwriting in Maria's diary. it doesn't prove anything else.

Ange did not confirm anything about the message in the bottle. She has never seen it!

If you want to prove that the message in the bottle is written with the same handwriting seen in Maria's diary, then provide the screenshot of what Professor Ootsuki says.
I never claimed that Ange saw the message in the bottle.

Again, Ange only confirmed that the handwriting matched. Here's the screenshots on how she did it:

Spoiler for Screenshots:


Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
I never said that this particular statement was wrong. But you used this fact as way to claim that it is impossible to state that the message in the bottles where written before the Rokkenjima incident.

Sorry but this is irrelevant, because a message in the bottle was found on the very same day of the incident. This proves without any doubt that at least one message in the bottle was written before the incident and not after.
For continuation of the episode 3 story line, in both cases where a message in a bottle was found the on the day of the incident and many years later Eva was included amoung the victims. I agree that this seems to point to the messages from episode 3 being sent before the incident since Eva survives.

However, episode 1 only mentions the message that was found a few years later. Why would Ryukishi not state that a bottle that was found on the day of the incident for the endroll in episode 1? If the messages in bottles were really sent before the incident then why do have a difference between the time the first bottle is discovered episode 1 and the time episode 3's first bottle is discovered? The only thing that changes between the games is what happens during and after October 4-5 not what happens before. If the bottles were sent before the time the game begins then they should be recovered at the same time since the recovery occurs completely outside the game.

Edit: By the way, could you please make your case without adding the unnecessary comment saying that a theory you cannot absolutely disprove is irrelevant. None of this is in red so by that rule all of this can be bullshit. Make your own theory and I promise I won't call yours irrelevant.
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Old 2009-10-17, 15:39   Link #1360
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The author of those letters was also probably in Rokkenjima during the meeting. Since once or twice (in EP2 and EP3, unless I'm mistaken), the key for the vaults was written with red letters in the wall.

I wonder what are the chances for the one who wrote that key, being the same person who drew those magic circles. In Gohda's TIPS, we learn those magic circles had been used even before the family meeting, and it seems the servants are related to those. In fact, in that TIPS, it seems as if the servants are hiding something/someone.
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