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Old 2009-10-17, 15:44   Link #1361
Renall
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogerpepitone View Post
Re your point 4: The scene where Rosa visits Kinzo is not shown, unlike all the other Kinzo scenes. I think that Rosa never even went to the study (she was killing Jessica at that time), and backed up Shannon / Genji's story in an attempt to create an alibi.

Also, the person only needs to visit Niijima once; anybody on the island (or Nanjo) could do it in the course of "just running errands".
Whether the letter writer knows Kinzo is dead probably turns on whether Kanon or Shannon knows Kinzo is dead.

Because I'm pretty convinced that Shannon is the letter writer. And "Beatrice."

Either way, the pool of people who CANNOT have mailed the payout letters includes Battler's family. So either Rudolf and Kyrie didn't intentionally keep Ange from coming, they did for another reason and the letter writer found out in time, or they're working with the letter writer.

I think the second is most likely; Rudolf and Kyrie have their own plan for the conference, and Ange must be kept away for some reason. Only problem is, why would they not want to risk Ange's life but risk Battler's? Or if the plan isn't supposed to risk anybody's life, why not bring Ange along? Her absence is quite suspicious, though it doesn't necessarily mean there's anything more to it. I mean she could actually be sick, after all.
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Old 2009-10-17, 15:44   Link #1362
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All right these are the right screenshots however I'd like to point out that the professor didn't say straight away that the writing is the same. He's going by memory and he himself isn't so sure.


As for the second matter

1) the witch's record isn't red text, there is no need to think it is 100% accurate. Actually if you look it carefully it was created in a way to be deceiving. It first tells you that the police found a "gruesome scene" and then jumps on the fact that this was later known as the "rokkenjima serial murder" completely omitting to say that this was due to magazines and talk shows and not because the police actually backed this. Since they omitted this important part there's nothing strange in the fact many other things were omitted.

2) If you claim that the episode3 continuity is different than episode1 or episode2 continuity, then you could as well say that the handwriting stuff also only applies to episode3.

But I don't believe so because the witch's record and what the future of episode3 shows are perfectly compatible. Anything that seems a difference can be explained by omissions in the way the facts are presented. In other words they describe the same thing. The witch's record differs only in that it gives more fragmented informations.

In conclusion I see little reasons for Ryukishi to have shown to us a future scenario that has only relevance for a single timiline. What Ange found out about Beatrice must apply to all the games to have any meaning.


To Renall.
You made a very nice analysis there. However that amount of money if we suppose that every locker contains the same amount is way too huge to be explained with a mere servant pay. Even Shannon can't possibly have that cash.

I think the only possible solutions are:

1) Since Beatrice owns the gold she converted into money a few ingots. As far as I know they were never counted, and even the anime shows a pyramid that appears to be short of a hundred ingots to reach 1000.

2) There is an external collaborator that provided the money to Beatrice. But who would make such an useless investment?
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Old 2009-10-17, 15:46   Link #1363
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Originally Posted by Used Can View Post
The author of those letters was also probably in Rokkenjima during the meeting. Since once or twice (in EP2 and EP3, unless I'm mistaken), the key for the vaults was written with red letters in the wall.

I wonder what are the chances for the one who wrote that key, being the same person who drew those magic circles. In Gohda's TIPS, we learn those magic circles had been used even before the family meeting, and it seems the servants are related to those. In fact, in that TIPS, it seems as if the servants are hiding something/someone.
Did Gohda mention seeing Kumasawa as well?
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Old 2009-10-17, 15:56   Link #1364
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Kumasawa is not mentioned in Gohda's notebook
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Old 2009-10-17, 16:01   Link #1365
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Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
However, episode 1 only mentions the message that was found a few years later. Why would Ryukishi not state that a bottle that was found on the day of the incident for the endroll in episode 1? If the messages in bottles were really sent before the incident then why do have a difference between the time the first bottle is discovered episode 1 and the time episode 3's first bottle is discovered? The only thing that changes between the games is what happens during and after October 4-5 not what happens before. If the bottles were sent before the time the game begins then they should be recovered at the same time since the recovery occurs completely outside the game.
Since the bottles were released into the ocean, the point and location where they might wash up is random. They may not wash up at all (which I personally assume is the reason that there are so many of them - the assumption is that several will be lost). Given the unpredictable nature of ocean currents, I'm not particularly surprised about the differences in timing.

I would consider the letter-writer knowing that Battler would be there relatively unsuspicious. There would be a limited amount of time that this could be known, but I think it would have had to be announced a reasonable amount of time before October 4th, because it would be impolite to the hosts to have someone there that had not been planned for. I feel that knowing that Ange would not be there is the much more suspicious point. Still, very early on the 4th this seems to be common knowledge. I assume that on the 3rd or perhaps even the 2nd, the fact that Ange would not be arriving would be known to most. The messages in a bottle would have to be changed and Ange would need to get a money letter, but substituting someone else's to give her one (our favorite Sumadera maybe?) might accomplish the latter, and writing the message bottles wouldn't take TOO long. It depends on who we want to suspect here and what we want to accuse them of.

I don't think we can be sure enough to state it in red that the letter-writer him-or-herself was on Niijima on October 3rd. It could easily have been an accomplice. It's very likely, though.

It's interesting about the letter-writer not seeming to know that Kinzo is dead if the messages describe episodes one and two. (Though, could someone please point me in the direction of the scene where Ange relates the contents of the bottle messages and they actually sound like the first two episodes? I'm sure it's just somewhere blindingly obvious since everyone seems to think that's what happened, but I can't remember anything like that and searching the script for key words is getting me nowhere.) However, episodes one and two do contain a lot of clear hints in that direction (for example, in episode two, no one ever seems to worry about Kinzo's safety, and even as everyone becomes more paranoid, no one accuses Kinzo of running around being the killer, even though that would be a completely valid guess if no one's seen the body, which does not get burned or ever show up, and you're assuming that only dead people are eliminated from suspicion...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo
This kind of reasoning doesn't work. It was said that the two letters greatly differ in the way they describe the events. So your assumption that their purpose was to give an accurate description of the events that happened on October 4 and 5 is wrong. There is also the ending to consider. The writer who claims to be Maria is asking the reader to find the truth, which is a blatant confession that the story she told is fake.
I never said that the point was to be accurate, I said the point was to tell a witch-oriented version of the events. The reason you'd want this to be relatively accurate at least for things like who walked on to the island and who walked off is so that it will be seen as interesting and closely examined. They mentioned that since it was inaccurate, it had low credibility to begin with - no one was interested. You have to have an interested audience for your plea to "find the truth" to be heard. Still, it reminds me a little bit of what meta-Beato is doing. Something in her games is trying to get Battler to recognize something, and she's dropping as many hints as she can... is that what the letters in bottles are for? Coming as close to giving the information out as possible without actually saying it?
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Old 2009-10-17, 16:11   Link #1366
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Workworkwork, replying to your Episode 4 thread post:

Knox's 10th Commandment: Disguising oneself as another character without any clues to that effect is forbidden. It is a violation of the 17-human limit for Kumasawa and a hypothetical Kumasawa!Beatrice to be alive on the island at the time Maria is given the letter. So long as you cannot present foreshadowing that Kumasawa is dead prior to everyone arriving on the island on October 4th, you cannot introduce Kumasawa!Beatrice as a character.

Last edited by LyricalAura; 2009-10-17 at 16:16. Reason: 17-human limit, not 18
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Old 2009-10-17, 16:15   Link #1367
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
Workworkwork, replying to your Episode 4 thread post:

Knox's 10th Commandment: Disguising oneself as another character without any clues to that effect is forbidden. It is a violation of the 18 human limit for Kumasawa and a hypothetical Kumasawa!Beatrice to be alive on the island at the time Maria is given the letter. So long as you cannot present foreshadowing that Kumasawa is dead prior to everyone arriving on the island on October 4th, you cannot introduce Kumasawa!Beatrice as a character.
I wonder if Virgilia would serve as a type of hint or clue.
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Old 2009-10-17, 16:16   Link #1368
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1) Since Beatrice owns the gold she converted into money a few ingots. As far as I know they were never counted, and even the anime shows a pyramid that appears to be short of a hundred ingots to reach 1000.
And if Shannon is Beatrice, than that problem is easily solved.
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Old 2009-10-17, 16:17   Link #1369
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
Workworkwork, replying to your Episode 4 thread post:

Knox's 10th Commandment: Disguising oneself as another character without any clues to that effect is forbidden. It is a violation of the 18 human limit for Kumasawa and a hypothetical Kumasawa!Beatrice to be alive on the island at the time Maria is given the letter. So long as you cannot present foreshadowing that Kumasawa is dead prior to everyone arriving on the island on October 4th, you cannot introduce Kumasawa!Beatrice as a character.
Not necessarily, we know that someone must be disguising as Beatrice. That in itself is enough to qualify as a clue.

Then in episode 3, during the magic scene, we see Kumasawa turning into Virgilia. This is enough to provide a clue that there's more to Kumasawa than we see.
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Old 2009-10-17, 16:18   Link #1370
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaiba View Post
And if Shannon is Beatrice, than that problem is easily solved.
Support for this theory continues to accrue every day, ohoho.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
Not necessarily, we know that someone must be disguising as Beatrice. That in itself is enough to qualify as a clue.

Then in episode 3, during the magic scene, we see Kumasawa turning into Virgilia. This is enough to provide a clue that there's more to Kumasawa than we see.
My favorite theory is still that she was Kinzo's "Beatrice", and that he's forgotten her because she's gotten so old.
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Old 2009-10-17, 16:25   Link #1371
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I never said that the point was to be accurate, I said the point was to tell a witch-oriented version of the events. The reason you'd want this to be relatively accurate at least for things like who walked on to the island and who walked off is so that it will be seen as interesting and closely examined. They mentioned that since it was inaccurate, it had low credibility to begin with - no one was interested. You have to have an interested audience for your plea to "find the truth" to be heard.
Facts prove that regardless of this blatant discrepancy the messages in the bottles attracted the attention of a lot of people. So I can't really see this as a problem.
Even if the writer wrote the letters after the incident he might have told the same stories, you don't know what exactly is his plan but we know for sure that telling an accurate or credible story wasn't part of his project anyway.
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Old 2009-10-17, 16:30   Link #1372
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Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
Not necessarily, we know that someone must be disguising as Beatrice. That in itself is enough to qualify as a clue.

Then in episode 3, during the magic scene, we see Kumasawa turning into Virgilia. This is enough to provide a clue that there's more to Kumasawa than we see.
I would like to argue that while we have clue of someone disguising as Beatrice, we have no clue of Beatrice disguising as someone else. Not that I know of.

It isn't the same thing. In ep5 the theory of someone disguising as Rosa was denied.

I can't see why the same shouldn't apply to Kumasawa or anyone else. Of course you can still say that someone is disguised as one of the 18, but you need to provide a clue.
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Old 2009-10-17, 16:36   Link #1373
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I agree with that. Please read again.
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Old 2009-10-17, 16:41   Link #1374
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I don't think anyone should have disguised himself/herself as Beatrice, if we're talking about Maria, since she's quite gullible. In EP3, she easily recognised EVA as Beatrice, right after she called herself that way. So, I think anyone could easily have just told Maria he/she was Beatrice, and she'd probably have believed it.

As for the person Battler met in EP4, would that count as a disguise? I mean, that person was wearing casual clothes. Wouldn't that defeat the purpose of trying to pose as the Golden Witch Beatrice?
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Old 2009-10-17, 16:48   Link #1375
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Actually, now that I think on it I think you're right and it's the opposite; the letter-writer probably does know Kinzo is dead, but is forgetting that this knowledge carries over into their scenarios.

Thus, no one accuses Kinzo of being the killer even though he's never accounted-for and has a near-impenetrable hideout to retreat to. No one seems terribly concerned for his safety. The few times it's mentioned they suggest he's safe in his study, but they don't know whether he stays there (it's noted he might leave when he gets hungry) and if the killer can enter seemingly locked rooms, why can't the killer get into the study somehow? He's mentioned and shown, but never seriously considered as an alive person ought to be in the story.

It seems reasonable, I guess, that the letter writer - if indeed the events of the episodes were what was written in the bottles and not something else entirely - knew Kinzo was dead, but had to pretend that Kinzo was not dead. They just didn't do a very good job of it.

Of course, if you knew Kinzo was dead, why would his body turn up in the same burned circumstances three games out of four? If you're just writing imaginary scenarios where everyone dies, you wouldn't need to do that. Which makes me suspect the messages in bottles don't describe any episode at all.

EDIT: Also, I see no reason the messages in bottles would just stop the way the games do. If the story in the bottle were episode 1, for instance, why would you just end right where it ends? What happens to the children? What happens to Beatrice? ep3 and 4 are also somewhat abrupt. We can guess and infer what happens from the epilogue and witch's record, but Ange suggests the messages describe everyone dying. So unless they also end with "And then everyone left died, THE END," I have to think the messages in the bottles suggest an endgame scenario that we've never seen come to pass. Ange would be aware of this, but she never brings it up. She also never brings up whether she's in any of the letters.
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Old 2009-10-17, 17:06   Link #1376
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I was wondering reading your post:
Could it be that the "missing" in the game record could suggest that there is survivors?
For example, is there any indication in Ep3/4 that Jessica's corpse was found? It could be a hint for telling us that if there is survivors, they could have reasons to hide themselves.
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Old 2009-10-17, 17:09   Link #1377
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Quote:
I don't think anyone should have disguised himself/herself as Beatrice, if we're talking about Maria, since she's quite gullible. In EP3, she easily recognised EVA as Beatrice, right after she called herself that way.
but Maria also called Beato the "real Beatrice" later. she may be viewing the name as sort of a title i guess.
not like it changes anything.
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Old 2009-10-17, 17:23   Link #1378
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Ange would be aware of this, but she never brings it up. She also never brings up whether she's in any of the letters.
And while we're at it, Ange never brings up what it was she found in that fisherman's hut. (It's pretty obviously Sakutaro, but...)

You guys think there's a lot more stuff Ange knows that she's not telling us?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Antera Caramichael View Post
I was wondering reading your post:
Could it be that the "missing" in the game record could suggest that there is survivors?
For example, is there any indication in Ep3/4 that Jessica's corpse was found? It could be a hint for telling us that if there is survivors, they could have reasons to hide themselves.
The TIPS kind of suggest that those labeled as "missing" are, in fact, dead, given the state of their bodies. Also, they're always either stated to have been "welcomed to the Golden Land" or "eaten by the demons and sent to Hell", and Battler's death TIPS in Ep4 suggest that Hell and the Golden Land are one and the same.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Used Can View Post
I don't think anyone should have disguised himself/herself as Beatrice, if we're talking about Maria, since she's quite gullible. In EP3, she easily recognised EVA as Beatrice, right after she called herself that way. So, I think anyone could easily have just told Maria he/she was Beatrice, and she'd probably have believed it.
They'd definitely have to have a witch-like outfit and match Maria's idea of what a witch is generally like, though.

...It would probably be very easy to figure this out just by looking at her notebook, though.
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Old 2009-10-17, 17:31   Link #1379
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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
The TIPS kind of suggest that those labeled as "missing" are, in fact, dead, given the state of their bodies. Also, they're always either stated to have been "welcomed to the Golden Land" or "eaten by the demons and sent to Hell", and Battler's death TIPS in Ep4 suggest that Hell and the Golden Land are one and the same.
Naive, can you state it in red that they really are dead? We can't trust anything that is not said in red, and since the bodies where not found, it would be a Probatio Diabolica like Battler says.
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Old 2009-10-17, 17:37   Link #1380
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Originally Posted by Antera Caramichael View Post
Naive, can you state it in red that they really are dead? We can't trust anything that is not said in red, and since the bodies where not found, it would be a Probatio Diabolica like Battler says.
That's bull. If you want to play that game, nothing in 1998 is true either. Actually, nothing except what is said in red has any bearing on anything, ever.

Maria's jaw, her JAW, was found in the aftermath of Ep1. I seem to recall that the only reason they couldn't identify them as dead was because, except for the large amount of blood, there weren't any identifiable remains.
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