[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 5 End of the golden witch

[Marion]

I really see no reason to doubt Rudolf is Battler's father. It's been commented how they act alike and that Battler shares many qualities as Rudolf in terms of growth (like how they both didn't grow until around 14-15 years old)

[Jan-Poo]

Well you are probably right, there is a high probability Rudolf is indeed Battler's father, however such things can be explained anyway by the fact Battler is Kinzo's grandson.

In the end the person Battler mostly resembles is Kinzo. Incidentally Rudolf is the one who among the four siblings is the most similar to Kinzo. So obviously Rudolf and Battler are also similar.

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Well I couldn't say in that thread but in fact that's what Kinzo tried first. He gave that child to Natsuhi and... we know what happened.

I don't think it is a coincidence that both Beatrice and that child fell from a cliff in 1967. Someone must have had some grudge on Beatrice and her offspring. The fact that Kinzo not even for a sec thought it was Natsuhi's fault makes me think Kinzo knows who is behind both incidents.
.

The only person I can think of who have a grudge on Beatrice and her offspring was Kinzo's formal wife (Krauss, Rudolf, Eva and Rosa's mother).

I have not finished EP5 yet. But what I want to say is usually the truth behind this kind of uncertain death XX years ago and coming back to revenge is the person was dead at that time.

Are you buying what Battler said in the end in EP5, that he was indeed Natsuhi's secret son and came back to revenge? Red herring, isn't it? That baby was indeed Beatrice's son but had died falling off the cliff, I suppose. And that baby was not Battler.

Actually I want to ask if there is any red text pointing to the existence of that baby from 19 years ago? Or anything could just be fantasy.




And about the matter of falling off the skyscraper and survive through shipwreck and hurricane, I think this was all Berk's doing. She has gone through billions of world to find one that Ange did not die from jumping off the skyscraper. And her power as "Witch of Miracle" makes Berk just survive all low possibility.

So, if the baby was indeed alive, that means Berk had been playing her trick as well.

[Kaisos Erranon]

Originally Posted by ijriims

And about the matter of falling off the skyscraper and survive through shipwreck and hurricane, I think this was all Berk's doing. She has gone through billions of world to find one that Ange did not die from jumping off the skyscraper. And her power as "Witch of Miracle" makes Berk just survive all low possibility.

Magic cannot be the only explanation for events that take place in the real world, despite Bern's obvious shenanigans. That's against the rules.

Furthermore, Bern's powers work based around probability: She can't affect events that have a 0% probability of occurring. Her powers are not true miracles... and I would think that you would need a true miracle to survive if you were an underdeveloped 15-year-old girl trying to swim, what, a couple miles to shore in the middle of a fucking hurricane. Unless you're an athlete, and Erika is not, then that's bloody impossible.

I have extreme doubts that Erika wasn't just dropped off by boat as part of some elaborate plot to frame Natsuhi.

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

Magic cannot be the only explanation for events that take place in the real world, despite Bern's obvious shenanigans. That's against the rules.

Furthermore, Bern's powers work based around probability: She can't affect events that have a 0% probability of occurring. Her powers are not true miracles... and I would think that you would need a true miracle to survive if you were an underdeveloped 15-year-old girl trying to swim, what, a couple miles to shore in the middle of a fucking hurricane. Unless you're an athlete, and Erika is not, then that's bloody impossible.

I have extreme doubts that Erika wasn't just dropped off by boat as part of some elaborate plot to frame Natsuhi.

You could not prove that the probability of Erika surviving all the shipwreck and hurricane is zero. That requires Devil's proof (the absence of possibility). Bern's power is "as long as the probability is not zero, she can make it happen". She and Lamdadelta could indeed meddle with the real world since their existence are at a higher level than both meta-Battler and meta-Beatrice. These two voyagers live in the meta-meta-world. The chessboard in Ep5 was merely an arrangement by Bern that Erika could go on to that world. (the logic is like this: the possibility of having an 15-year-old detective is not zero, the possibility of that detective was on a ship around Rokkenjima is not zero, the possibility of surviving the accident is not zero, so by chain-rule, the possibility of all these happening at the same time is not zero. Bern chose the chessboard such that Erika did arrive at Rokkenjima).

Their game is not Beatrice's one. These two are real witches. They represent hope and absolute will respectively, they do interfere in the real world. You can call it magic or not.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by ijriims

Their game is not Beatrice's one. These two are real witches. They represent hope and absolute will respectively, they do interfere in the real world. You can call it magic or not.

Until Battler kicks their asses, anyway. Bern better hope the probability of getting owned by an incompetent isn't a non-zero event.

[Kit]

I don't even think you have to really think about Erika's arrival like that. The fact is that she is a piece placed by Bernkastel into the game. Meaning that like Ange, how she arrives is not important, neither is the fact that the family members acknowledge her existence, since we've been shown events such as George facing off with Gaap, Jessica with Ronove, as well Rudolf and Kyrie with the Stakes...not to mention Kinzo's open magic massacre in the dining hall. Assuming the kakera theory fits, and that episode 5 is another chosen world, if one was to remove Jessica as a supernatural being like we previously removed Kinzo, then in the "reality" of the gameboard, someone else (or a combination of people) would have reached the same conclusion - that Natsuhi is the murderer.

[Jan-Poo]

It's not the same thing. Ange didn't enter the closed circle of Rokkenjima Erika did.

[Kit]

Which is why this is a Hijacked game. An unfair one.
EDIT: I think my point still stands though. Because if her arrival is an important factor on how the game functions, then there would simply be way too many anomalies. There would be no standard to judge the probability of any event, which would mean that anyone and anything could enter the closed circle as long as the probability of it wasn't 0.

[Jan-Poo]

I think the unfair thing isn't the hijack itself. In the end if Lambda didn't take Beatrice's place, everything would end up without a real conclusion. As for Bernkastel, it was Battler himself that told her to take his place.

What's really unfair is the fact that Lambda and Bern aren't playing one against the other, instead they became allies and created that farce of Ep5.

[Kit]

Exactly: episode 5 is a farce, with new rules and a whole new setup, which is why I think that although Erika's meddling can, to some degree, be a great asset in figuring out some possible answers (proof of this is the red afterward that states Natsuhi is not the culprit - which would not have been stated had not Erika insisted on her guilt), I think that other elements of her character should simply be observed as a separate entity from the game that Battler had been playing with Beatrice.

[Ithekro]

If the red is correct, Erika can't be a piece in the next game. She's only to effect Game 5. However her Meta/witch form could still play against Battler..in which case, piece-Battler is under Erika's control while Witch Battler runs the game.

[Workworkwork]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

If the red is correct, Erika can't be a piece in the next game. She's only to effect Game 5. However her Meta/witch form could still play against Battler..in which case, piece-Battler is under Erika's control while Witch Battler runs the game.

I anxiously await BDSM Erika fanart, as Battler is obviously a masochist.

[ijriims]

I wonder if most of the people do survive by the end of 5th Oct 1986 in EP5. If so, then it meant the "everyone died or went missing for some mysterious reasons" was indeed not a must-be incident.

But it seems that we would never know, since what happened after 5th Oct 1986 was never shown in the game.

Probably Ryokishi07 cut the game on purpose for this reason to confuse us about the inevitability of no-person-survive scenario.

[Marion]

Personally I think they all survived, seeing as they just kept watch over Natsuhi until the boats came. The killer would be stupid to strike in a room where they're obviously surrounded - not to mention Natsuhi's framing is believed by pretty much everyone (well except Battler) that the killer gets off free.

[Ithekro]

That is, if the killer is responsible for the deaths at midnight of October 5/6th.

[ijriims]

We still don't know what caused the massive death and missing in EP1 and EP2, what happened in the end of EP3 and what killed Battler in EP4. If the killing was done by some indirect mechanism rather than shooting everyone down and chopping the bodies up, then indeed all people could die in EP5 if the killer set up that mechanism in EP5 as well.

In this case, Natsuhi's framing was a fake relief that all people could be safe at the end. And I suppose the real killer could devise a plan to separate the people and kill them. This makes sense since if everyone thought Natsuhi was the mastermind, then the real culprit could execute his or her plan more easily, as you know Natsuhi was probably framed as the mastermind by the real culprit in EP5. (that's why Erika sucked as a detective)

[Ithekro]

Did the game even get to the end of October 5th?

[MeoTwister5]

Nope. IIRC correctly Ep5 ends the evening of October 5, which really leaves a lot of plot and event room should R07 decide to continue it on Ep6, but the end of the episode suggests that an entirely new game starts with Ep6 so it's likely that Rokkenjima of Ep5 ends just at that point.

[Workworkwork]

Originally Posted by MeoTwister5

Nope. IIRC correctly Ep5 ends the evening of October 5, which really leaves a lot of plot and event room should R07 decide to continue it on Ep6, but the end of the episode suggests that an entirely new game starts with Ep6 so it's likely that Rokkenjima of Ep5 ends just at that point.

However, if EP6 continued the events of EP5, it would still fit with the red truth about Erika only being involved on the fifth gameboard.