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Old 2010-04-25, 02:21   Link #9141
Renall
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
We don't need 3 pages of this tripe though. The point has been raised before.
And yet other ridiculous arguments are tolerated. That's the nature of this thread. If it bugs you, don't even give those arguments any thought. If it really bugs you, ignore someone.
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Old 2010-04-25, 02:22   Link #9142
LyricalAura
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Originally Posted by Shiro Kaisen View Post
Shannon, having faked her death at the First Twilight, is alive and is allowed into Eva and Hideyoshi's room by Eva and Hideyoshi. They knew about the fake death plan, and that's why Hideyoshi didn't say anything about her being alive, as they assumed Shannon was in on it because she was in the shed! She kills them, and hides under the bed!
As far as I've been able to determine, the murderer doesn't particularly go out of their way to create closed rooms, and doesn't seem to have a problem with just leaving bodies lying out in the open either. So if a closed room appears that would require the culprit to endanger themselves in order to construct it, we should instead suspect that the closed room was not created by the culprit alone. In the case of the EP1 second twilight, the closed room is easy to explain if it was constructed after the murders occurred by people other than the culprit.

It is almost certain that Kanon faked his death at the fifth twilight with the help of Kumasawa and Nanjo. We can walk that theory back to get a picture of how the second twilight occurred.

Spoiler for Clues, long:

So the short version of the theory is: The servants and Nanjo discovered Eva and Hideyoshi's bodies, at which time the chain was not set. Since it looked like the murders were going to continue, they created a plan to trip up the culprit's accomplices (by altering the second twilight crime scene and setting up a weird magical incident) and fake Kanon's death so he could keep an eye out for the killer. This plan explains all of the details of the second through fifth twilights.

Of course a theory where all of the servants are the culprits is also possible like this, but I think most people would agree that it would be incredibly unlikely.

Last edited by LyricalAura; 2010-04-25 at 04:02.
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Old 2010-04-25, 02:25   Link #9143
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post
Exist has two definitions.
The one definition we need is the definition for 存在, though, and the definitions it has aren't the same, as far as I can see.
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Old 2010-04-25, 02:33   Link #9144
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Quote:
The one definition we need is the definition for 存在, though, and the definitions it has aren't the same, as far as I can see.
That says Existance, exist and existance mean slightly different things. Existance means:
1. The presence or occurrence of something in a particular place or situation.
2. Being real, or alive.

Which that sounds like it fits the meaning perfectly. imo though

And the other word it meantions it meaning is Being; which means.

1. A person, a human.
2. A state of existance.
3. Somebody's essential nature or character
4. Something that is alive.

Last edited by Laserworm; 2010-04-25 at 02:39. Reason: Added Being
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Old 2010-04-25, 02:49   Link #9145
LyricalAura
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Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post
That says Existance, exist and existance mean slightly different things. Existance means:
1. The presence or occurrence of something in a particular place or situation.
2. Being real, or alive.

Which that sounds like it fits the meaning perfectly. imo though

And the other word it meantions it meaning is Being; which means.

1. A person, a human.
2. A state of existance.
3. Somebody's essential nature or character
4. Something that is alive.
Completely by coincidence, my new sig is relevant to this discussion.
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Old 2010-04-25, 03:05   Link #9146
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
Completely by coincidence, my new sig is relevant to this discussion.
Where was that from? I remember Virgillia saying that actually...
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Old 2010-04-25, 03:36   Link #9147
LyricalAura
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Where was that from? I remember Virgillia saying that actually...
It's a slightly modified quote from 1984, actually.
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Old 2010-04-25, 03:42   Link #9148
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
So the short version of the theory is: The servants and Nanjo discovered Eva and Hideyoshi's bodies, at which time the chain was not set. Since it looked like the murders were going to continue, they created a plan to trip up the culprit's accomplices (by altering the second twilight crime scene and setting up a weird magical incident) and fake Kanon's death so he could keep an eye out for the killer. This plan explains all of the details of the second through fifth twilights.

Of course a theory where all of the servants are the culprits is also possible like this, but I think most people would agree that it would be incredibly unlikely.
It'd be nice to think that the servants painting magic circles would only be part of creating the magic illusion, with no intent to take part in the murders. This might actually fit quite well with the first twilight fakery theories. I'm quite sure it's either Kumasawa or Genji who paints the magic circles, with Genji being the most probable due to no circles (except the bank account number) appearing after Genji dies and Gohda's TIPS. I think Kumasawa could carry the stakes (there could be some room under those clothes, right?), or they were hidden in rooms beforehand by some plan.

What I've read through these last 10 pages is that the solution to the chained closed rooms is the culprit coming in, closing the chain, then hiding and dying for some reason, therefore not 'existing' or 'hiding' anymore. Well for EP1 second twilight there is no red denying anyone is hiding, so the culprit could be hiding under the bed/in the closet. If the chain wasn't set at all before the servants came in to prepare the cut chain and magic circles, there was probably no need to check all places, they thinking that the culprit escaped right after the murder. But why would they intently make a closed room? Because otherwise they would be suspected of the murder right away if it was all open, probably.

How long was Kinzo's corpse burning actually? Couldn't Kumasawa or Kanon have staked him and set him burning the time they were going for the storeroom?

I think Natsuhi's viewpoint hiding in the closed can be trusted to some extent (it's quite realistic after all, comparing to what we've seen all through EP2-EP4). So Hideyoshi either didn't recognize the culprit, or the culprit was someone he thought was dead already. So it is either Rosa, Maria, George, Genji or Jessica. Problem is that the culprit (and Natsuhi) seemed to be in the room already when the chain was last set, but no-one found them after they broke to the room. Well they were just being lazy (not to mention shocked).

For common interest, here's definition for "corpse":
1. a dead body, usually of a human being.
2. something no longer useful or viable: rusting corpses of old cars.
3. Obsolete. a human or animal body, whether alive or dead.
(plus there is slang meanings like an empty alcohol bottle or cigarette butt, but this is translated from japanese, so I don't think they have slangs like that. Though they're surprisingly fitting for Umineko )

When Jessica's corpse was discovered, only Battler, George, Maria, Rosa, Genji, Gohda, Shannon, Kumasawa, and Nanjo were in Jessica's room. So do we automatically need to say Jessica's "corpse" is dead, or is it really possible for Jessica to be alive? Definition 3 has that chance there.
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Last edited by Bluemail; 2010-04-25 at 09:22.
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Old 2010-04-25, 08:22   Link #9149
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Bluemail View Post
When Jessica's corpse was discovered, only Battler, George, Maria, Rosa, Genji, Gohda, Shannon, Kumasawa, and Nanjo were in Jessica's room. So do we automatically need to say Jessica's "corpse" is dead, or is it really possible for Jessica to be alive? Definition 3 has that chance there.
Notice that Beatrice herself a few paragraphs later suggests assuming that Jessica is alive and laughs at Battler when he rejects the possibility immediately because he doesn't want to suspect Jessica, rather than because Jessica is dead. If that red would automatically deny Jessica being alive, such a suspicion would be simply impossible and there would be nothing to laugh about. If Jessica really is alive, Beatrice is taking a large risk, but Battler is incompetent, at least at this point, so it would pass anyway.

The word used in the original Japanese, "死体" pretty unambiguously refers to a corpse and nothing else. The first kanji in it is for 'death', the second is for 'body', no wiggle room here. However, the time definition "When Jessica's corpse was discovered" may actually be true regardless of whether Jessica is dead or not.

This works because Battler himself and other people at the scene called the object found "Jessica's corpse" relying on Nanjo's proclamation of her death. Because they themselves refer to this moment as the 'corpse discovery moment', and they're free to make a mistake and suppose a living body is actually a corpse, red relies on this context to mark time the statement applies to without actually confirming or denying the life/death status.

I.e. at the moment of listening, in Battler's perspective, the life/death status is not defined in red, and so he can refer to the moment as 'corpse discovery moment', and so can Beatrice because she knows about it, even in red. If he knew Jessica is in fact alive, it would retroactively have become 'faking Jessica discovery moment', at the moment he acquired the information, and referring to that moment as the 'corpse discovery moment' from then on would become a lie.

This is further reinforced by moving the statement of Jessica's life/death status outside the boundaries of red in the statement about her presence, so it's ambiguous regardless of what the red is supposed to be calling a corpse.

P.S: Also, there's a no less interesting possibility if we assume that such mistaken-context references are not in fact allowed. That would actually mean that Jessica was indeed alive at the moment the first person in the group entered the room, but died when everyone was already inside, from wounds or from a finishing blow -- because otherwise, the moment of 'corpse discovery' cannot happen when everyone is already in the room since someone has to have entered first and would be the singular discoverer of the corpse.
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Old 2010-04-25, 10:15   Link #9150
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Here's the thing about the stakers and whatnot: Why are they doing this? Assume they aren't killers, but are responsible for creating a witch illusion. What would make them risk doing this? Either they don't know ahead of time there will be deaths (making them innocent of any murder-related crimes), in which case they're manipulating a murder scene for a very weird reason and potentially implicating themselves in a crime they had nothing to do with, or they do know ahead of time, and are acting as accessories to murder even though by this logic they aren't part of the killer's faction (or even sure who it is, if Kanon is faking his death to find them).

I mean, I can understand perhaps that Nanjo and Kumasawa may have been bribed to create a witch illusion they don't fully understand, but it's still a far cry to go from staking corpses, planting letters, and painting symbols to moving corpses and posing them.

And it can't just be a fake deaths plot thing. The instant Genji sees Eva in ep1, he knows that's out the window. She is capital-D dead right in front of his eyes.
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Old 2010-04-25, 11:21   Link #9151
Oliver
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Here's the thing about the stakers and whatnot: Why are they doing this? Assume they aren't killers, but are responsible for creating a witch illusion.
From a different angle -- what good is the illusion of the witch to anyone at all?
  • For a murderer who rationally wishes everyone dead, the endgame explosion is the superior method, no need to bother and certainly no need to engage in trickery. Either in fact would be counter-productive as they scare people and make them move and explore too much. I.e. anyone who knows about the endgame explosion and rationally wishes everyone dead cannot actually be murdering anyone or engaging in the illusion.
  • For a murderer who wishes to cover evidence, the illusion is likewise useless, as should a police investigation show up, any extra work done on the corpses and the environment actually provides more physical evidence, not less.
  • For a murderer who plans to kill everyone manually for an emotional reason, to make the dead and the survivors suffer and experience fear, the illusion is a primary tool, but since it greatly increases the time and effort spent murdering, they must not care about getting caught after it's all done or even in the process. But then they don't need the endgame explosion.
  • For a non-murderer who is concerned only with themselves, the illusion of the witch is patently useless for both rational and emotional reasons.
  • For a non-murderer who is concerned about the well-being of non-murderers, the illusion of the witch is likewise useless.

Basically, the only reason to enforce the illusion of the witch I can think of is if you're a non-murderer who wishes to throw suspicion off the murderer by pinning the crimes onto the non-existent witch, i.e. one has to be an accessory to murder even if one is not a murderer themselves.

There may be a lot of good emotional reasons to do that if you know or suspect who the murderer is, but few to no rational reasons.
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Old 2010-04-25, 11:57   Link #9152
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Basically, the only reason to enforce the illusion of the witch I can think of is if you're a non-murderer who wishes to throw suspicion off the murderer by pinning the crimes onto the non-existent witch, i.e. one has to be an accessory to murder even if one is not a murderer themselves.
maybe I'm missing something but if this "non-murderer" is aware of the murderer, and the murderer is aware of the endgame explosion, then the non-murderer has nothing to cover.
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Old 2010-04-25, 11:58   Link #9153
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Here's the thing about the stakers and whatnot: Why are they doing this? Assume they aren't killers, but are responsible for creating a witch illusion. What would make them risk doing this? Either they don't know ahead of time there will be deaths (making them innocent of any murder-related crimes), in which case they're manipulating a murder scene for a very weird reason and potentially implicating themselves in a crime they had nothing to do with, or they do know ahead of time, and are acting as accessories to murder even though by this logic they aren't part of the killer's faction (or even sure who it is, if Kanon is faking his death to find them).
Quote:
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There may be a lot of good emotional reasons to do that if you know or suspect who the murderer is, but few to no rational reasons.
I think it's important to consider the context here, because it generates three perfectly good reasons for non-murderers to stake people. This is a closed circle serial murder, so before anyone can worry about the police, they have to worry about staying alive.

First, this is a situation where a faction of characters had been planning elaborate fake deaths ahead of time, and the murderer apparently knew about this and took advantage of it. In other words, for the non-murderers in this faction, unstaked corpses are not trustworthy because the murderer might try to fake their own death. Staking them completely removes them from suspect consideration for everyone on the island, even the innocent people who weren't in on the original faking conspiracy.

Second, in the particular case of EP1, the servants should know at the moment they discover Eva and Hideyoshi's bodies that they'll become Natsuhi's prime suspects. Natsuhi has a gun and demonstrated earlier that she's possibly unstable, so trying to throw suspicion off themselves is healthier for their well-being.

Third, the servants' prime suspect in that situation should be Battler, the only person other than Maria and the victims who they know left Natsuhi's supervision at some point. They'd already been psyching him out about Beatrice before the murders were discovered, so building on that would give them an opportunity to scare him and prevent him from committing more murders. He might even accidentally reveal something he shouldn't know about the second twilight. This idea is backed up by the fourth twilight, since staking Kinzo is meaningless unless it's directed at someone who didn't know Kinzo was dead.
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Old 2010-04-25, 12:23   Link #9154
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But if the killer's motive was to show Battler magic, then wouldn't that automatically make the ones preparing the magic elements connected to the killer's plan? The killer not actually planning to make it magical would only be reasonable if Battler's sin isn't about magic at all. Because after all, people really die because of Battler's sin, so it must be the killer's motive. It was aid the sin wasn't between Battler and Beatrice, so there might actually be the chance the killer isn't related to magic at all, Beatrice being part of this "magic faction". But it should be Beatrice setting the ending explosion though, otherwise it wouldn't be "Beatrice" killing Battler in the end of EP4. Unless it is really some other method there, which I can't think of. Except "severe alcohol poisoning" (see Image Thread)
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Old 2010-04-25, 12:34   Link #9155
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maybe I'm missing something but if this "non-murderer" is aware of the murderer, and the murderer is aware of the endgame explosion, then the non-murderer has nothing to cover.
If anybody besides the person who places it knows about the bomb. They are probably threatened not to tell anyone about it otherwise there would be many people panicking instead of just a few people. Or it's something they can't stop. The murders and stakings might be a distraction to "isolate" someone they want to save from the explosion rather than just cover for the murderer. If there's only enough room wherever Eva was to save a few people anyway killing the other people before the bomb goes off would be considered mercy.
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Old 2010-04-25, 12:36   Link #9156
Oliver
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maybe I'm missing something but if this "non-murderer" is aware of the murderer, and the murderer is aware of the endgame explosion, then the non-murderer has nothing to cover.
Yes, but only if the non-murderer is also aware of the endgame explosion.

Actually, my current best guess about the endgame explosion is that it is primed the moment someone opens up the gold storage, sort of like a failsafe against someone who opens up the door without actually having finished solving the epitaph -- and someone always finds the gold and forgets about the remaining lines...

Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
I think it's important to consider the context here, because it generates three perfectly good reasons for non-murderers to stake people. This is a closed circle serial murder, so before anyone can worry about the police, they have to worry about staying alive.

*snip*

Third, the servants' prime suspect in that situation should be Battler, the only person other than Maria and the victims who they know left Natsuhi's supervision at some point. They'd already been psyching him out about Beatrice before the murders were discovered, so building on that would give them an opportunity to scare him and prevent him from committing more murders. He might even accidentally reveal something he shouldn't know about the second twilight. This idea is backed up by the fourth twilight, since staking Kinzo is meaningless unless it's directed at someone who didn't know Kinzo was dead.
Well, I imagine yes, I missed that bit of context.

Mind you, about Kinzo's corpse. There's something else odd about it. I am now pretty convinced that it is actually stored in the study, marinating in the embalming liquid -- formaldehyde and glutaraldehyde mostly -- and is generally tossed out of the window of his study and burned because the siblings are closing in and now's the last moment to do so before it is actually discovered, or, alternatively, because someone thinks of another clever use for it like in Ep3 or possibly Ep4. In most cases, the one burning the corpse expects it stays undiscovered until it's pure ash, which can then be disposed of at leisure. That fits the available hints quite well.

What doesn't is that I still don't see a rational or emotional reason not to burn or bury it immediately at all if the intent really was to declare Kinzo missing from the start. Something must have prevented that or made it a bad idea to do.

What could it be at all?

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But it should be Beatrice setting the ending explosion though, otherwise it wouldn't be "Beatrice" killing Battler in the end of EP4. Unless it is really some other method there, which I can't think of.
Doesn't have to be if Beatrice is the one who finds the gold and then forgets to reset the timer. That is, Beatrice doesn't have to intentionally kill Battler by the endgame explosion even if she is the one who causes it.
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Old 2010-04-25, 12:51   Link #9157
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Yes, but only if the non-murderer is also aware of the endgame explosion.
How can he cover the murderer without even knowing what he's trying to cover? that doesn't seem an intelligent plan to me. I mean let's say I create a fake murder scene where someone is stabbed, but the murderer actually plans to poison everyone, that wouldn't make much sense. In fact in the scenario where the murderer is planning the great explosion massacre this person who tries to cover him would be just wasting everyone's time... for nothing.

this kind of thing would only make sense in case the murder already happened and the one who tries to cover it acts accordingly.
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Old 2010-04-25, 12:59   Link #9158
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
this kind of thing would only make sense in case the murder already happened and the one who tries to cover it acts accordingly.
This is kind of what I meant in the first place.
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Old 2010-04-25, 13:06   Link #9159
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Having finished my reread-with-notes up to Ep3, I think it's about time to present some select observations and puzzling questions discovered, so here they are, sorted in no particular order, but split by episodes and taking out things I brought up already. I hope at least a few of them are actually genuinely new.

Hidden into spoiler tags because it's bloody long and scrolls off, not that I expect most people to pay much attention.

Spoiler for Episode 1:


Spoiler for Episode 2:



Spoiler for Episode 3:
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Old 2010-04-25, 13:29   Link #9160
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An interesting thought exercise: Reread ep1-3 (4 is kind of anomalous in this respect) with the idea that everyone else suspects Battler is the killer. Rosa and Eva do seem to be wary of him in 2 and 3...

I mean, of course, we know he isn't. But maybe that's clouding our observations. The mere fact we know he's not the killer doesn't mean the characters know that.
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