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Old 2010-05-18, 18:58   Link #10161
SeagullCrazy
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Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post
Rosa left and went to check on the cousins before they found Shannon. Rosa only hears about there corpses, this is probably why she thinks it is fake.
The reason that some of the adults go to the guesthouse is because they wanted to make sure the cousins didn't see the corpses.

Yes, a lot of my theory is because of coincidence or circumstance, but that's the exact reason I believe in it. Since it is highly likely that Shannon = Beatrice, and Shannon is dead at the first twilight, the rest of the Episode is supposed to be different from the original plan the Beatrice-faction had.

Although there is something strange... if EP1 is so easy that we've narrowed it down to Shannon and Kanon faking their deaths.... the difficulty for EP1 is "standard". EP2's difficulty is "first-rate" and EP3's difficulty is "equal". Ryukishi said that he made EP3 easier because EP2 was too difficult. I took this to mean that EP3 is easier than EP1, but I'm not so sure now.
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Old 2010-05-18, 19:08   Link #10162
Shiro Kaisen
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
It works fine if we trust Erika and assume Kanon and George are the same person

Kanon is a representation of George's past! George once said that when he was young he was weak and bullied a lot. Hideyoshi has also put in lots of of effort to get George experienced with work. It's possible that at one point in time George worked for 3 years on Rokkenjima as the servant Kanon to gain experience in the value of money. How about that Shkanon theory!!
Knox's 8th. Clues must be presented. Was there ever any foreshadowing that George is Kanon, apart from Erika's conjecture?

Furthermore, that assertion has quite a bit of problems, not the least being that Battler saw George and Kanon together in Episode 1, at least.
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Old 2010-05-18, 19:11   Link #10163
Raiza Sunozaki
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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
By the way Judoh, I'm with you on the George as the culprit theory. I think I may have an idea of the why he would be the culprit too, based on some of the theories people have put forth here. Namely that Kinzo is a magician in the stage-magic sense.

We've all noticed that George has a source of magic information. What if he IS the successor to Kinzo in terms of stage-magic? What if he is one of the few people on the island capable of the slight-of-hand tricks that Kinzo may have drilled into some of them? (i.e. Shannon and Rosa.) Being named successor in this sense may have created this idea in his mind that he is the real successor to the family wealth and power as well. We've seen in some fantasy scenes that he has no problem accepting this.

And so the why is that he's already named successor and acts as one, in respect to 'magic.' And that extends to his idea that he should be the family's successor as well.

I could go on more about how he and Hideyoshi have a deal although he has his own designs with a live with Shannon, but... I believe there isn't anything new as to 'why.'

Also, this theory isn't complete because it still fails to explain the deal with Kanon and the 'closed' rooms... 8)
This is less of a "how dunnit" theory and more of a "why dunnit" anyway, so don't worry about it too much.
I find George as one of the ideal culprits (according to Episode 6 he has a bit of overconfident view over everyone else, he can lead decently in problematic scenarios, has stated he could kill everyone if he needed to, even though that was a fantasy scene). All I need is for him to make even the slightest remark on how he thinks he would be the ideal head (it only needs to be a passing thought, that's all) and I'm convinced.
I don't think Kinzo would've named George as the next head. If he did, what's the point of the Epitaph? The only normal theory for it is that solving it grants the solver headship and the ten tonnes of gold. However, I would accept George having a delusion at one point where he believes Kinzo told him he was to become the next head, since it seems everyone in Umineko's had a delusion of Kinzo or one point of another.
Also, like Maria, George may have just inherited the fascination with the supernatural from Kinzo. Though he does possess quite a bit of knowledge on it, which is why I think he researched about ways to make it seem like the deaths were caused by a witch. Most of the knowledge is stuff he could've easily just stumbled across while researching things like magical circles.
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Old 2010-05-18, 19:18   Link #10164
Judoh
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Originally Posted by Shiro Kaisen View Post
Knox's 8th. Clues must be presented. Was there ever any foreshadowing that George is Kanon, apart from Erika's conjecture?

Furthermore, that assertion has quite a bit of problems, not the least being that Battler saw George and Kanon together in Episode 1, at least.
My theory is that episode 3 is the only true Rokken Isle. Therefore due to the author theory I only need to use clues from that episode! Like I already said Hideyoshi is determined to get George work experience it would not be unusual for him to make a deal with Kinzo be hired as a servant for a period of time to do this. There is also the fact that Eva also has a persona representing her teenage past. Kanon being a fantasy character representing George's past is not unusual at all you could even argue that it's genetic! Furthermore Kanon and George never have a conversation anywhere together not even in the pre stories of the episodes. While Shannon and Kanon do have conversations together. This suggests that to Shannon at least Kanon is a real person, but George may or may not be aware of him. Furthermore if Shannon broke the mirror as "Eve" to gain knowledge. George would be a perfect "Adam" to be tempted.
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Old 2010-05-18, 19:24   Link #10165
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
My theory is that episode 3 is the only true Rokken Isle. Therefore due to the author theory I only need to use clues from that episode! Like I already said Hideyoshi is determined to get George work experience it would not be unusual for him to make a deal with Kinzo be hired as a servant for a period of time to do this. There is also the fact that Eva also has a persona representing her teenage past. Kanon being a fantasy character representing George's past is not unusual at all you could even argue that it's genetic! Furthermore Kanon and George never have a conversation anywhere together not even in the pre stories of the episodes. While Shannon and Kanon do have conversations together. This suggests that to Shannon at least Kanon is a real person, but George may or may not be aware of him. Furthermore if Shannon broke the mirror as "Eve" to gain knowledge. George would be a perfect "Adam" to be tempted.
What does this have to do with Battler's sin?
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Time ran out for the people on the island. All of them are dead. When the seagulls cry none shall be left alive. Sleep forever in a rest you will never be awakened from my beloved Beatrice. Persona: Project Mirror. http://persona-project-mirror.webs.com/ Check it out if you like the Persona series.
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Old 2010-05-18, 19:30   Link #10166
Judoh
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Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post
What does this have to do with Battler's sin?
I don't think Shkanon has much to do with his sin either but I'll take a wack at it.

To Battler anything related to Shannon and Jessica would somehow have George connected to it. He even says this much in episode 2 when Beatrice suggests to use Jessica as a culprit. He automatically thought that if Jessica is involved than that means George would also be involved, which to me says that George and Jessica were once very close.

likewise if my theory on the sin that it's against Maria were true. George would also be involved since he cares for her. Oh and I don't beleive the person who is sinned against necessarily has to remember the sin. If the murders and the Beatrice disguise was created because of his sin somebody has to remember, but the person who he sinned against may have already forgotten about it. The only thing that has to happen is that the person who remembers acts on the knowledge of his sin.
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Old 2010-05-18, 19:48   Link #10167
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
I don't think Shkanon has much to do with his sin either but I'll take a wack at it.

To Battler anything related to Shannon and Jessica would somehow have George connected to it. He even says this much in episode 2 when Beatrice suggests to use Jessica as a culprit. He automatically thought that if Jessica is involved than that means George would also be involved, which to me says that George and Jessica were once very close.

likewise if my theory on the sin that it's against Maria were true. George would also be involved since he cares for her. Oh and I don't beleive the person who is sinned against necessarily has to remember the sin. If the murders and the Beatrice disguise was created because of his sin somebody has to remember, but the person who he sinned against may have already forgotten about it. The only thing that has to happen is that the person who remembers acts on the knowledge of his sin.

OH my..... I just found a huge reason for Shakannon if the sin is against Battler.

Shannon heard a rumor about if the item that is in the shrine is broken your wish will be greated by Beatrice in return for doing this for her. Shannon wishes Battler would return, when she shouts "Grant my wish Beatrice!" Her wish is not granted and she gives up hope on magic and such, and creates her Beato friend to cope, before she falls for George. She at first falls for George just because he is the only guy to treat her with kindness and show any interest in her besides Battler. But she eventally does actually fall for George. The only time she cares about Battler's sin to her is in ep4, so clearly something big happens in that ep, which changes things. Battler leaves due to his dad having sex with Kyrie. And this caused Shannon to go emo, because the one person she thinks holds some compassion for her, betrays her hopes, and makes it seem like he doesn't care at all for her. In ep6 were shown a scene where Battler is asked what kind of girl he likes. He says blonde and busty, or maybe like Jessica. Or something like that. He is saying this to Shannon, because he is too nervous to confess his love for her right there. Shannon being emotionally fragile thinks that her hopes of Battler liking her are destroyed. But her hopes are restored later that day when he makes that promise to her. So she is even more crushed when he doesn't come back and really does think he didn't care about her, and thinks what he said to her was true.

That is my theory of Battler's sin, and here is where Kanon comes in.

To put up with her terrible sadness she creates Kanon, to be her friend. Genji and Kumaswa both know the truth, but they hide it and make other think Kanon exists. Jessica hears about Kanon through them, but doesn't meet him. Then Jessica talks to Shannon about wishing Kanon would come to her thing at school. Shannon decides to pretend to be 'Kanon' to please Jessica. This is why when the show is on 'Kanon' hides in the shadows. 'Kanon' rejects Jessica's feelings because she knows Kanon doesn't actually exist. She pretends to be Kanon on the day of the confrence because Natsuhi requests both Shannon and Kanon. The piece Kanon can only die two ways, when Jessica dies; for there is no reason for Shannon to pretend to be Kanon anymore. Or when Shannon dies.

dah... it is making sense....
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Time ran out for the people on the island. All of them are dead. When the seagulls cry none shall be left alive. Sleep forever in a rest you will never be awakened from my beloved Beatrice. Persona: Project Mirror. http://persona-project-mirror.webs.com/ Check it out if you like the Persona series.
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Old 2010-05-18, 19:51   Link #10168
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Shiro Kaisen View Post
This discussion of Episode 3 just gave me a somewhat plausible idea.

The "key" Ryuukishi mentioned is "The basic assumption that makes Room X a closed room is false."
I must note that this actually goes both ways and the form you present is said practically verbatim by Battler even before he gets to use the blue. So to put it more strictly, "A basic assumption that makes Room X a closed room that a murder happened in is false."

This way, one of those basic assumptions would be that someone is actually dead at all.
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Old 2010-05-18, 19:59   Link #10169
LyricalAura
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Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post
Mine is about the same as yours Judoh. Genji and Kanon are the killers. The chain was never on the door, and they painted the circle. Kanon then pretended to cut the chain in front of Kumaswa.
The chain was set and cut by Genji's group after the murder occurred. However, this doesn't mean that Genji's group killed them. No one has a solid alibi for the period during which the murders occurred.
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Old 2010-05-18, 20:05   Link #10170
Judoh
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Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post
OH my..... I just found a huge reason for Shakannon if the sin is against Battler.

*snip*
I think this is very similar to the theory Chronotrig has for Battler's sin. You probably just came upon a similar answer.

As a comedy theory I'd find it funny if Battler's sin was making fun of somebody's favorite mystery book. Plus 1 for the fake death camp!
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Old 2010-05-18, 20:11   Link #10171
Laserworm
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
I think this is very similar to the theory Chronotrig has for Battler's sin. You probably just came upon a similar answer.

As a comedy theory I'd find it funny if Battler's sin was making fun of somebody's favorite mystery book. Plus 1 for the fake death camp!
All the part I mentioned about Battler's sin, was supported by small hints and a little bit of assumption.

How well it fits.. kind of scares me... I want Kanon to be real... : (

OH well time to see if it solves everything...
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Time ran out for the people on the island. All of them are dead. When the seagulls cry none shall be left alive. Sleep forever in a rest you will never be awakened from my beloved Beatrice. Persona: Project Mirror. http://persona-project-mirror.webs.com/ Check it out if you like the Persona series.
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Old 2010-05-18, 20:24   Link #10172
Shiro Kaisen
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Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post

To put up with her terrible sadness she creates Kanon, to be her friend. Genji and Kumaswa both know the truth, but they hide it and make other think Kanon exists. Jessica hears about Kanon through them, but doesn't meet him. Then Jessica talks to Shannon about wishing Kanon would come to her thing at school. Shannon decides to pretend to be 'Kanon' to please Jessica. This is why when the show is on 'Kanon' hides in the shadows. 'Kanon' rejects Jessica's feelings because she knows Kanon doesn't actually exist. She pretends to be Kanon on the day of the confrence because Natsuhi requests both Shannon and Kanon. The piece Kanon can only die two ways, when Jessica dies; for there is no reason for Shannon to pretend to be Kanon anymore. Or when Shannon dies.

dah... it is making sense....
If Kanon is Shannon's imaginary friend, why would Natsuhi have him on the servant register? Natsuhi certainly wouldn't pretend along with Shannon.
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Old 2010-05-18, 20:26   Link #10173
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Originally Posted by Shiro Kaisen View Post
If Kanon is Shannon's imaginary friend, why would Natsuhi have him on the servant register? Natsuhi certainly wouldn't pretend along with Shannon.
Maybe Natsuhi doesn't know. Genji and co tricked her into thinking Kanon exists.
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Old 2010-05-18, 20:31   Link #10174
Shiro Kaisen
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Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post
Maybe Natsuhi doesn't know. Genji and co tricked her into thinking Kanon exists.
So you're saying that Natsuhi NEVER scheduled Kanon and Shannon to work on the same day before that? Or that no one, in those many years of Kanon "existing" managed to catch her? Or that Natsuhi never demanded all the servants to "line up" or something during the day?

And we see in Episode 5 that both Kanon and Shannon were in on Kinzo's death being hidden. Natsuhi had to have spoken to both of them at the same time.
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Old 2010-05-18, 20:46   Link #10175
Laserworm
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Originally Posted by Shiro Kaisen View Post
So you're saying that Natsuhi NEVER scheduled Kanon and Shannon to work on the same day before that? Or that no one, in those many years of Kanon "existing" managed to catch her? Or that Natsuhi never demanded all the servants to "line up" or something during the day?

And we see in Episode 5 that both Kanon and Shannon were in on Kinzo's death being hidden. Natsuhi had to have spoken to both of them at the same time.
Natsuhi could be playing along with it. In ep6 Kanon says that Natsuhi isn't that nasty of a person, just that she takes her anger out on Shannon. And Natsuhi and Shannon must get along sometimes.

Kanon sees the phantom Kinzo in ep5. Bern suggests that maybe Kanon also told that lie. But maybe; Kanon doesn't exist and Natsuhi is actually by herself, or with Shannon. 34 just shows it as Kanon to try and trick Bern.
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Time ran out for the people on the island. All of them are dead. When the seagulls cry none shall be left alive. Sleep forever in a rest you will never be awakened from my beloved Beatrice. Persona: Project Mirror. http://persona-project-mirror.webs.com/ Check it out if you like the Persona series.
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Old 2010-05-18, 21:19   Link #10176
Raiza Sunozaki
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Natsuhi could be playing along with it. In ep6 Kanon says that Natsuhi isn't that nasty of a person, just that she takes her anger out on Shannon. And Natsuhi and Shannon must get along sometimes.

Kanon sees the phantom Kinzo in ep5. Bern suggests that maybe Kanon also told that lie. But maybe; Kanon doesn't exist and Natsuhi is actually by herself, or with Shannon. 34 just shows it as Kanon to try and trick Bern.
Or maybe Kanon does exist. He was going along with the Kinzo Phantom concept to give his mistress some ease of mind during a stressful period.
This thread needs some more non-Shkanon.
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Old 2010-05-18, 21:30   Link #10177
Shiro Kaisen
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Once again, Occam's Razor on Shkanon. It needlessly complicates things, requires several additional explanations to reconcile its existence, and is totally unnecessary for all mysteries. It's so unlikely that Natsuhi would allow a fake servant to exist on her schedule. Therefore, it's much more likely that she didn't because Kanon is real.
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Old 2010-05-18, 21:39   Link #10178
Laserworm
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Originally Posted by Shiro Kaisen View Post
Once again, Occam's Razor on Shkanon. It needlessly complicates things, requires several additional explanations to reconcile its existence, and is totally unnecessary for all mysteries. It's so unlikely that Natsuhi would allow a fake servant to exist on her schedule. Therefore, it's much more likely that she didn't because Kanon is real.
Umineko doesn't follow Occam's Razor. And it does not needlessly complaicate things, and it explains the last two riddles in ep6. OH NO! I'm becoming an Shakannon theorist.

I think Occam's Razor is kind of dumb for mystery. I searched it and this is what I found it meant for writing. Occam's razor has been recommended as a measure of how good the plot of a novel is. Simple and logical plots are easy to explain and this enhances the experience of the reader. The writer is also less likely to make an error while explaining the plot to the reader.

That is stupid.. it basically means a mystery can't have a complex answer for it to be good. I hate easy answer mysteries... I want them to be hard...
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Time ran out for the people on the island. All of them are dead. When the seagulls cry none shall be left alive. Sleep forever in a rest you will never be awakened from my beloved Beatrice. Persona: Project Mirror. http://persona-project-mirror.webs.com/ Check it out if you like the Persona series.
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Old 2010-05-18, 21:54   Link #10179
Raiza Sunozaki
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Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post
Umineko doesn't follow Occam's Razor. And it does not needlessly complaicate things, and it explains the last two riddles in ep6. OH NO! I'm becoming an Shakannon theorist.
No, Umineko does follow Occam's Razor, it's just a really bad idea to apply it.
Occam's Razor only works if what you conclude to be the simplest possible answer is in fact, the correct answer. With Umineko, the existence of magic complicates things so much, that when you try to remove the complications, you're more likely than not to miss the correct answer entirely. Example: Erika. Out of the evidence she gathered, ignoring things like magic and love, she concluded that the simplest answer was that Natsuhi was the culprit.
Then again, in that situation, the people she thought Natsuhi had killed weren't really killed when she decided to pin the blame on her.
In short, if you're going to apply Occam's Razor, you should try and think like Ryuukishi, since he's the one who wrote this confounded mystery in the first place. Strip away the complications in the same pattern he put them up in.

On Shkanon, while it does explain the biggest riddles of Episode 6, it needlessly complicate everything else from every other Episode. It's like saying: "Here, I'll take away your two hardest problems, and instead I'll give you a dozen or two other smaller ones." Unless you can go back and iron out every single detail that complicates Umineko because of Shkanon, I refuse to accept it as a plausible way to solve any mystery. The whole point of an answer is not to create more questions in other places, but create a string of answers which rounds up every question.
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Old 2010-05-18, 22:00   Link #10180
Raiza Sunozaki
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Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post
I think Occam's Razor is kind of dumb for mystery. I searched it and this is what I found it meant for writing. Occam's razor has been recommended as a measure of how good the plot of a novel is. Simple and logical plots are easy to explain and this enhances the experience of the reader. The writer is also less likely to make an error while explaining the plot to the reader.

That is stupid.. it basically means a mystery can't have a complex answer for it to be good. I hate easy answer mysteries... I want them to be hard...
This is not what it means. It means the best kind of plot is a simply complicated plot. You can have red herrings and secret metaphors and other things that can confuse and confound your readers, but in the end, they must be able to understand what you were trying to get across. Whether it means giving a solution to a mystery which has readers slapping their foreheads lamenting on how they could've missed something so obvious, or having every little detail of your complicated story brought to light in an understandable manner, depends on the genre.
A bad story is a story which is too simple, since it cannot enthrall intelligent readers.
A bad story is a story which is too complicated, since it cannot keep the readers interested or entertained in the convoluted plot.
A good story is a story which is simply complicated, since it enthralls and is understandable.
Simple and logical does not mean easy. Logic is the hardest thing to understand in this world sometimes.
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