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Old 2010-05-22, 19:50   Link #10481
Linkin Battler
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Well, I don't feel like getting dragged into another pointless Shkannon quagmire, so I'll just say that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence and set it aside. I also think your reinterpretations of the red text are unsupportable given what we know of Beato's character. I suppose I'll attack a few things though.

I showed evidence of ShKanon, the fact that Battler never sees them together is an evidence itself and remember that Knox's rules can be put under interpretation

Beato's Past
There is no evidence that Beatrice 2 ever had a child by Kinzo, or that she was ever raped or mistreated by him. The interaction between them that we saw showed that she considered him to be a friend or a father figure. The possibility that 1986 Beatrice is Beatrice 2's child is explicitly denied by Nanjo and Genji. Knox 8, it is forbidden to solve the case with clues that have not been presented.

Actually it is clear there is a connection between Battler and Beato, the weird Beato's use of red when speaking is a clue itself. And Battler is 19 years old. So there should be a Beatrice 19 years old. And Genji and Nanjo should be Beatrice's accomplices. And also, the little Beatrice in the dream of metaBeato refers to a grandfather that could be Kinzo.

Furthermore, you claim that the scene of Young Beato at Kuwadorian calling Kinzo "grandfather" is evidence of this hypothetical Beatrice 3. However, all shipment of supplies to the Kuwadorian dock ended in 1968, and it would be ridiculous to abandon that dock in favor of transporting supplies through three miles of forest while running the risk of catching Krauss and Natsuhi's notice. Since it's difficult to believe that anyone could have been living there after 1968, the scene in question must have taken place before 1968, meaning that the hypothetical Beatrice 3 couldn't be 19 years old in 1986.

In fact I said that Beato did not live in Kuwadorian, she probably has lived somewhere outside the island and had a normal life until six years ago.

Episode 1:
You have claimed that Kanon was dead at the beginning of the episode, meaning that every time we saw Kanon, it was actually Shannon. The servants would never mistake another human for Kanon. You've claimed that Genji and Kumasawa were accomplices for various reasons, but why didn't Gohda say anything to Natsuhi about it?

As Beato's accomplice Gohda is lying. And Natsuhi is not a servant, she is a member of the family.

Shannon appears to have very large breasts which would be impossible to bind for the purposes of a Kanon disguise. Therefore, your theory requires that Shannon normally be using pads, which she removed when she disguised herself. However, that would certainly be noticed by Battler if he succeeded in groping her in the morning, and yet she didn't even attempt to avoid him. This does not make sense.

There are many methods she can use to hide her breast.

But let's assume that somehow "Kanon" really was Shannon. At the fifth twilight, when the rest of the survivors arrived in the boiler room, the stake that was supposedly used in the attack was already lying on the ground. In other words, there is no concrete evidence that Shannon/Kanon was actually stabbed with it. Furthermore, the existence of fake blood on the island has already been demonstrated repeatedly.

But let's even assume Shannon/Kanon was actually stabbed. In addition to Nanjo, George and Jessica went along to help with treatment. Shannon/Kanon's top would have been removed to clean the wound, meaning that Shannon's identity would have been immediately exposed to everyone present. In that case, why didn't anyone say anything?

Nanjo is Beato's accomplice, he would never let the identity to be exposed.

Episode 2
Kanon died in Jessica's room. You have not presented any evidence explaining why Shannon would have killed him there. Furthermore, doing so would have left blood that would need to be cleaned up somehow without alerting Jessica, who lives in that room.

I never said it was Shannon to kill him, I think it was Beatrice and maybe he killed him there according to metaBeatrice.

Episode 3
No elements other than humans have any influence on this game board. This comprehensively denies the interference of beings from the meta world. You have not presented a motive that would explain Piece Beatrice's actions in the absence of meta interference.

The interferies could have been before the starting of the game.

Episode 4
You say that Jessica was threatened into telling her witch story to Battler over the phone. In that case, why was she laughing the whole time, and why did she say something strange like "I hear that I've been killed"?

Because that is what she heard. And because maybe that really made her laugh.

Episode 6
What Battler and Beato said about the person limit was: Even if we welcome you, the number of people is seventeen. That's not a limit, but an exact number. There are no more or less than seventeen living people on the island, so your explanation of why she's the 18th human on Rokkenjima doesn't work.

It is not an 18th human, but a 17th.
Beatrice + Krauss + Eva + Rudolph + Rosa + Jessica + George + Battler + Maria + Natsuhi + Hideyoshi + Kyrie + Nanjo + Genji + Shannon / Kanon + Kumasawa + Gohda = 17
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Old 2010-05-22, 20:00   Link #10482
imaginari
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I've thought of something. Several people have theorized that Kinzo was murdered, but I didn't think much about it until I read a bit about it being fairly common, in books and real life, to poison people slowly over months. It could have been done.

Now, here's the thing. If Kinzo was a particularly bad person, there could be several accomplices who would not, under other circumstances, be a party to murder. Now, what would happen if one of the poisoners killed again? The others would have a better idea of who did it, but that person would have some ability to control them. Anyone who talks could have their secret exposed, heck, if they die on the island and the evidence goes out they could be posthumously named one of the culprits. (Well, the explosion would rule that out, but they don't know that.)

This is helpful for me since it plugs some holes in my solution. I have a lot of people who must know the culprit but have no reason to stay quiet. There's a lot of overlap between these people and the ones who might have killed Kinzo. It doesn't solve everything, but it is progress.
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Old 2010-05-22, 20:06   Link #10483
Linkin Battler
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I personally think that what we call Erika is "the illusion of the detective", if Nanjo can assure no one has gone to the upper floor, than also "Erika" can.
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Old 2010-05-22, 20:19   Link #10484
Judoh
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Look Linkin I've already proven that your theory does not work I'm not readdressing EVERYTHING all over again so you can understand that person X does not exist. And don't claim your Beatrice piece is not a person X. She definitely is. You just said you don't beleive she lives on the island. A person X is adding any additional person by killing off another character. The number of people can only go DOWN not up. We've been lowering the count to make it so there are LESS suspects. Your culprit does not exist! Get over it!
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Old 2010-05-22, 20:31   Link #10485
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Not to mention This red. I am the Golden Witch, Beatrice. (ep4) So this red. The sin I am now demanding that you remember is not between Ushiromiya Battler and Beatrice. Must refer to herself. The red would apply to her. It would be stupid and contradictory if she is asking Battler to remember his sin and then when he gets close shoot him down so his thinking goes completely in a different direction.
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Old 2010-05-22, 20:58   Link #10486
Judoh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imaginari View Post
I've thought of something. Several people have theorized that Kinzo was murdered, but I didn't think much about it until I read a bit about it being fairly common, in books and real life, to poison people slowly over months. It could have been done.

Now, here's the thing. If Kinzo was a particularly bad person, there could be several accomplices who would not, under other circumstances, be a party to murder. Now, what would happen if one of the poisoners killed again? The others would have a better idea of who did it, but that person would have some ability to control them. Anyone who talks could have their secret exposed, heck, if they die on the island and the evidence goes out they could be posthumously named one of the culprits. (Well, the explosion would rule that out, but they don't know that.)

This is helpful for me since it plugs some holes in my solution. I have a lot of people who must know the culprit but have no reason to stay quiet. There's a lot of overlap between these people and the ones who might have killed Kinzo. It doesn't solve everything, but it is progress.
Well it's not like I haven't thought he was murdered myself. The red does call him a "victim" when he's among the 6 people. The thing is though the way his death is described in episode 5 is a peaceful one in his bed. There all sorts of ways to die in your sleep, even heart failure or a stroke can look peaceful if your asleep. The problem with poison is that the number of candidates at the time that could possibly do that are very low. And there is Knox's 4th that some people have a problem with. Nanjo and Genji are the most likely circumstantially since they were closer to him, but they're motive is very blurry. I'd be more inclined to think it was an accident caused by an over dose on some drug Nanjo gave him or alcohol poison like Edgar Allen Poe's death rather than a murder. And that's not just because of the red that says Nanjo isn't a murderer. You can get around that. I just don't see a reason for these people to hate Kinzo. The other candidate to kill Kinzo is actually Kanon. I'm thinking that since he was carrying fertilizer from the shed that maybe one of his duties is to take care of the rose garden. And part of that would be to use pest control poisons. However like the others I don't think he has a motive either unless he really is destined to take the headship.

EDIT: Oh and there is also the fact that Beato couldn't say "all of the six were killed by other people" in red. She said "none of them committed suicide" instead. Kinzo is the most likely to not have been killed by another person. I don't know how to explain why she couldn't say that without Kinzo.

Last edited by Judoh; 2010-05-22 at 21:11.
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Old 2010-05-22, 21:38   Link #10487
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If Erika doesn't exist, she's most likely not an object. I don't think a literal "Erika Ball" makes much sense, unless it's merely an object that transfers Erika-ness. And then you'd have to explain what that object is and why people would transfer it.

There's also the issue of explaining why exactly a person is referred to as "Erika." I do think the notion that she is the "illusion of the detective" in the same way Beatrice is the "illusion of the witch" is the way to look at her, though. Effectively, what Erika does is "magic" detective-work. Her efforts are equally implausible, but unlike magic, are theoretically possible. Realistically speaking, however, neither one is really all that likely.

But, if Erika doesn't exist, I think it's very important to ask all the questions that would arise from this. Does Meta-Erika know? Do Bern and Lambda know (one would think they'd have to, but...)? Why are they doing this? What benefit does Meta-Erika gain from believing she exists, and why have her there in the first place? How much of what she "sees" accurate? How is this "illusion of the detective" instructive to us with respect to Beato's games? Can we learn anything useful from them, or is this just a big red herring (which would either be a sign of bad writing, or a theory that is simply there to mislead).
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Old 2010-05-22, 21:54   Link #10488
Shiro Kaisen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post

But, if Erika doesn't exist, I think it's very important to ask all the questions that would arise from this. Does Meta-Erika know? Do Bern and Lambda know (one would think they'd have to, but...)? Why are they doing this? What benefit does Meta-Erika gain from believing she exists, and why have her there in the first place? How much of what she "sees" accurate? How is this "illusion of the detective" instructive to us with respect to Beato's games? Can we learn anything useful from them, or is this just a big red herring (which would either be a sign of bad writing, or a theory that is simply there to mislead).
What it's there for is for thematic evolution. We've seen that magic is misleading, but because magic is presented in a good light, it's to show you that mystery is equally so. By treating everything as a clue and by ignoring the magic scenes, you end up accusing Natsuhi. Erika is there to show you how NOT to solve Umineko.

And Erika doesn't know at first. But she certainly realizes it when she becomes the Witch of Truth, or at latest the time of Beatrice's resurrection, when both of them are loading red into their guns to strike the other down.

"I am...the Witch of Truth...that means...I am a witch who can understand the truth. That means...I can face the truth...about myself."
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Old 2010-05-22, 22:03   Link #10489
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Originally Posted by Shiro Kaisen View Post
"I am...the Witch of Truth...that means...I am a witch who can understand the truth. That means...I can face the truth...about myself."
The "truth about herself" could be a number of things:
  • She is the human representation of something (ball, rose, etc)
  • She is a corpse that washed up on Rokkenjima
  • She is a codename for one of the 17 people
  • She was never on Rokkenjima
But which one did she realize? And how would it kill Meta-Erika by realizing it?
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Old 2010-05-22, 22:35   Link #10490
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It makes me wonder if Erika's name might be some kind of stupid pun or something. Like "Eureka! Fooled You!"

Hmm...
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Old 2010-05-22, 22:41   Link #10491
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Originally Posted by SeagullCrazy View Post
The "truth about herself" could be a number of things:
  • She is the human representation of something (ball, rose, etc)
  • She is a corpse that washed up on Rokkenjima
  • She is a codename for one of the 17 people
  • She was never on Rokkenjima
But which one did she realize? And how would it kill Meta-Erika by realizing it?
It could also mean that she realized she has no chance of winning at that point.

As for her name, I think the most likely is a play on Furude Rika, since Bern mentions that Erika is her double.
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Old 2010-05-22, 22:48   Link #10492
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Well, there's that obviously, but I was just trying to think if it could be something else too.

Oh well. Doesn't really matter.
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Old 2010-05-22, 22:49   Link #10493
Judoh
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As for Rika and Frederica they are totally different. There is a message she left in Higurashi for this issue.

Quote:
I am who I am; Frederica Bernkastel.
Furude Rika and Frederica are different. Shame on you if you thought so.
My age? I've gotten bored with it, so I've quit counting.

Huh? Are you speculating that the real identity of the Oyashiro-sama is me?
Giggle giggle. You are so insolent.
The Oyashiro-sama is the Oyashiro-sama. You want me to introduce it to you? It's rather shy.
It gets frightened easily so don't scare it, okay? However, it seems that you are the one that's scared.

Giggle giggle giggle...
EDIT: Well I guess if you didn't notice Furude and Furudo are a play on words. It looks like to me that they're engrish for the "Fred" part of Frederica's name. It ends up being "Furude" or "Furudo". Then you just add on " the Erica" part of her name for Erika or Rika and you get the full name for Ryukishi's characters.

Last edited by Judoh; 2010-05-22 at 23:10.
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Old 2010-05-22, 23:09   Link #10494
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Yeah, I knew that already. I was just looking for some other crazy hint that Erika might not be real.
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Old 2010-05-22, 23:13   Link #10495
Judoh
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Well I didn't notice the engrish until now...

I think what we have to figure out is why the characters would even take Erika's point of view other than that it works with conveniently with the red. Especially since she shouldn't be on the island in the first place.
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Old 2010-05-22, 23:22   Link #10496
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It could also mean that she realized she has no chance of winning at that point.
Why does that realization de-exist her? Since when do Battler and Beatrice have the power to do that? Or was it - as seems reasonable to me - the red they used that did it? If it was, why?
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Old 2010-05-22, 23:47   Link #10497
Judoh
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Actually there is a very simple explanation for why. Beato should have de-existed in the same way at the end of episode 4, but due to the shackle rule she didn't, even though as Bernkastel says: her soul is dead and all that's left is a doll like corpse.

The shackle rule does not Have to apply to Erika at all and it's never been said that it does. If anything caused her deny herself there would be nothing keeping that from happening. She probably could've used some tricks to keep herself from de-existing just like Beato supposedly could have.
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Old 2010-05-23, 00:01   Link #10498
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But why was Beatrice de-existing in ep4? Was it because she was giving up on existing, or because she was destroyed?

It's an important distinction; if a person can just be made to give up and stop existing, the statement made about them need not be true. For instance, if Shkanon is true and Erika doesn't know it, Battler and Beatrice can say "there are 17 people" knowing Erika will think it means she doesn't exist. If she then gives up, they win. I think that's a bit out of character for Battler to do, though.

That said, it has precedent: They've tried to essentially destroy Battler 2-3 times by making him give up and stop existing. On the other hand, he never really seemed to want to disappear of his own volition...
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Old 2010-05-23, 00:39   Link #10499
Judoh
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But why was Beatrice de-existing in ep4? Was it because she was giving up on existing, or because she was destroyed?
I really don't see the difference between the two options here.

If we want to go with how it first happened to Battler in episode 4 though. The dominant question in his mind was "who am I?". We could say losing your identity or your sense of self is one of the losing conditions that can cause de-existence, but for whatever reason losing your identity is different from just giving up or to stop thinking.

You can stop thinking and start again later, but if you lose your sense of self well only someone else who knows what that self is can bring that back.
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Old 2010-05-23, 00:48   Link #10500
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I really don't see the difference between the two options here.
There's a huge difference. If you're just giving up, as was said outright, you can come back as long as there's just enough of you left there to pull yourself together. Battler basically does this three times (inspired each time by Rosa, Ange, and Beatrice).

If you're being actively destroyed, that is, having your existence denied outright, it seems much more dire. What Erika is trying to do seems much, much more brutal and final. It may even be nearly irreversible (Battler was "killed" in ep5, but his existence can't really be denied because he does actually exist).

So that's the question: Did Erika just give up, or did they "kill" her meta-existence by denying her outright?
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