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Old 2010-05-25, 18:56   Link #10641
Judoh
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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
I'm reading the red about the limit of people on the island to also not be time specific either. I mean, if you think about it, we've been using the limit from EP1-4. Why should it suddenly break in EP5-6? The only reason I can think of is because Beatrice is not there to control the game so a new gamemaster can totally subvert what was originally true for EP1-4.

But if that's true of the count of people, then that can be true of almost anything else. Now, Kinzo COULD be alive. Battler could commit murders, or worse yet, he could actually be useful! *gasp*
Well this is repeated in episode 5 by Virgilia so it's not really vague anymore. A better way to say it is that Kinzo is dead by october 4th I guess.

Quote:
Virgilia: .........Ushiromiya Kinzo is already dead at the starting time for all games! .....Shouldn't you rethink your reasoning? Kinzo doesn't exist. Therefore, the way for the bodies to disappear in your theory is a failure.
What I'm telling you is not about Kinzo it's about all games reds in general.

Lowering it by one for Kinzo! was used to say 18th person X does not exist. But the only reason Battler wanted that extra person was so his family couldn't be the culprit. An 18th person can be added in later stories as long as they are not person X
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Old 2010-05-25, 18:59   Link #10642
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Well this is repeated in episode 5 by Virgilia so it's not really vague anymore. A better way to say it is that Kinzo is dead by october 4th I guess.



What I'm telling you is not about Kinzo it's about all games reds in general.

Lowering it by one for Kinzo! was used to say 18th person X does not exist. But the only reason Battler wanted that extra person was so his family couldn't be the culprit. An 18th person can be added as long as they are not person X
Random thought--- how come the statement Ushiromiya Kinzo is dead at the starting point of all games! is in red, but the rest of Virgilia's comment is in blue?
Does it just have to do with her "priveleges" in the court? She was only allowed to repeat what was already known?

...Or is this a hint?
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Old 2010-05-25, 19:00   Link #10643
Kylon99
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Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
I haven't really though about this, but the statement Kinzo is dead at the start of all the games is very, very vague.

This is said at the end of Episode 4, isn't it?
So we can only guarantee that the statement is true for Episodes 1-4.

Now. Let us assume that all the kakeras coexist and that they exist "simultaneously."

A kakera could exist such that Kinzo did not die (like maybe Episode 5) but since the statement Kinzo is dead at the start of all games was not said before said kakera was created/examined, it could be granted immunity from this particular red.
This is also another reason I came up with the Author Theory and the Historical Method Theory, or at least my particular brand of it. I was trying to pierce the meta world, that it is NOT like Higurashi with infinite kakera/fragments. In this way, I was trying to see it from the point of view of an author of a detective novel rather than a Rika travelling through infinite worlds.

Because Rika travelling through infinite novels would not be solveable, if you try to consider the infinite possibilities. You have to define it down to a set of kakera where only some things can be possible but not everything. In otherwords the set of solveable kakera is a subset of all possible kakera. This limiting is done by the red text.

In this way, Bernkastel is trapped.

If you go up one level to the writer (if you subscribe to the theory) then the writer must have set up the situation before hand in order to write a story that can still be variable. Otherwise what you have are spin off stories that do not relate to the original... or if they were done by other people, non-canon stories.

I see the red as capable of threading through all stories except for the ep specific ones. This is why, at the author level, I called it the Core Truth rather than red text. This Core Truth must be true for all games.
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Old 2010-05-25, 19:04   Link #10644
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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
I'm reading the red about the limit of people on the island to also not be time specific either. I mean, if you think about it, we've been using the limit from EP1-4. Why should it suddenly break in EP5-6? The only reason I can think of is because Beatrice is not there to control the game so a new gamemaster can totally subvert what was originally true for EP1-4.
The limit is actually context-specific, at least as used in the "no more than" context. When people die in Umineko they don't count as people anymore, so Beatrice's limit by its very nature applicable only at its maximum limit before any deaths occur.

It's actually the ep6 Battler/Beatrice red that's odd, as it's basically spoken out of context. It can't apply to the current game, because five people (at least) are dead. So the number isn't 17 + 5 or we'd have Person X all over again. It must be intended to mean some sort of absolute that is independent of the previously stated "no more than" count in which dead people aren't counted. Perhaps implied is the "on the game board in general," but I can't be sure.
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Old 2010-05-25, 19:06   Link #10645
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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
If you go up one level to the writer (if you subscribe to the theory) then the writer must have set up the situation before hand in order to write a story that can still be variable. Otherwise what you have are spin off stories that do not relate to the original... or if they were done by other people, non-canon stories.

I see the red as capable of threading through all stories except for the ep specific ones. This is why, at the author level, I called it the Core Truth rather than red text. This Core Truth must be true for all games.
Does the red really have to be true across the board for author theory to work? Or is that just your personal preference?

As long as none of the chiru arcs are Rokkenjima prime it should be fine.

I fail to see why spinoff stories wouldn't work with it. If there is only one real Rokkenjima in author theory than the rest should be spinoffs anyway. And that's basically what Umineko is a bunch of spinoff stories.
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Old 2010-05-25, 19:11   Link #10646
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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
If you go up one level to the writer (if you subscribe to the theory) then the writer must have set up the situation before hand in order to write a story that can still be variable. Otherwise what you have are spin off stories that do not relate to the original... or if they were done by other people, non-canon stories.
The author has the discretion to use red truth (unless you're going so far as to say the red actually doesn't exist in the texts of writers and is applied by another, meta-writer). That red truth may be wrong; if it is wrong, the episode is a "forgery." Yet the red text may not apply to Rokkenjima Prime at all in the Author Theory world.
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Old 2010-05-25, 19:18   Link #10647
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Does the red really have to be true across the board for author theory to work? Or is that just your personal preference?
I agree with Kylon on the Author Theory, and I'll use my EP6 Final Riddle Theory to help explain that.

Erika never set foot on Rokkenjima-prime. However, she is free to participate in any game.

This is because of the motive of the writer. Their motivation is to get people to believe that the story is the truth of what happened on those two days. If, for example, we use a Method X to determine that Erika was never on the island at all, what happens to all of the stories with Erika in it? They lose all credibility, because someone who never could have been on that island is "supposed to be there", according to the story. Thus, Meta-Erika died, since there was no reason for her to exist any more.

The same applies to red text across multiple gameboards, like Kinzo is already dead. If the writer makes Kinzo alive in the story, they will lose all credibility if it is proven in Rokkenjima-prime that Kinzo died before the start time of the story. Since we have that red, we can guess that someone really did find evidence to prove that Kinzo was dead.

So basically, the story just loses credibility if the author doesn't make it accurate. Really, it's sort of like the author needs to find the truth before they can be trusted by the readers and believed in. Because the closer the author is to the truth, the more people will believe in his story, "forgery" or not.
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Old 2010-05-25, 19:22   Link #10648
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So your theory is that since Erika was never on Rokkenjima prime than we can just claim she and (the stories about her) never existed? That's just as dubious as the devil's proof.
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Old 2010-05-25, 19:27   Link #10649
SeagullCrazy
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
So your theory is that since Erika was never on Rokkenjima prime than we can just claim she and (the stories about her) never existed? That's just as dubious as the devil's proof.
In Rokkenjima-prime, a devil's proof can exist. The Knox rules don't apply, so I don't need evidence to back anything up. Method X can exist. Evidence X doesn't need to exist. Witches can exist.

Rokkenjima-prime isn't a mystery novel. If the Meta-World is a metaphor for the readers and writer of the stories, then that's all the evidence we need to say that the writer (Battler) knows that Erika never was on Rokkenjima-prime, and can use the red to deny her existence.
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Old 2010-05-25, 19:32   Link #10650
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I'm not calling it a devil's proof I'm saying that like the Decalogue it's an argument as dubious as the devil's proof. You don't have to make a blue about that. If we were using the devil's proof it would be the opposite pattern. We'd be saying since we don't know what the real rokkenjima is, or if we've ever seen it yet, there is no way of proving Erika does not exist on Rokkenjima prime.
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Old 2010-05-25, 19:40   Link #10651
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
It's actually the ep6 Battler/Beatrice red that's odd, as it's basically spoken out of context. It can't apply to the current game, because five people (at least) are dead. So the number isn't 17 + 5 or we'd have Person X all over again. It must be intended to mean some sort of absolute that is independent of the previously stated "no more than" count in which dead people aren't counted. Perhaps implied is the "on the game board in general," but I can't be sure.
Actually, I thought the person limit was specifying the number of people at the start of the game. Because as you say, they die and aren't really counted as 'existing' any more. Also, didn't Battler try something like this earlier? Saying someone died or left the island which allowed for someone else to come on... and he got shut down hard. 8)

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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Does the red really have to be true across the board for author theory to work? Or is that just your personal preference?

As long as none of the chiru arcs are Rokkenjima prime it should be fine.

I fail to see why spinoff stories wouldn't work with it. If there is only one real Rokkenjima in author theory than the rest should be spinoffs anyway. And that's basically what Umineko is a bunch of spinoff stories.
I'm saying the reds that are true for all games will be reaching into the Core Truth. In the author theory, I'm trying to separate the idea of red and the things that have to be true for the story to be 'Umineko.'

Anyways, we know not all reds are true across the games. For example "Eva is dead." But there must be a Core Truth that is true for all games because if not, then say... The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes is also an Umineko story. 8)

You get what I mean, right? There must be a set of things that are true for the writers, even the original writer, to write from. And this allows EP1-4 to be solvable as a whole. If this is not true then any of them must be solveable independently but not for the whole, but I'm not sure this is likely. Any new writer, in the world of Hachijou and the Witch-Hunt rabid-fangroup, who didn't know of this core truth would write an inaccurate story that would eventually become obvious. For the time being, at least to only the writer(s) who know the 'truth.' If you can take them for their word.

For example, what if the murders in EP1-3 were NOT caused by Battler's sin?

Anyways, my idea was that the 17 person limit (and now the 16 person count at the end of EP6) is a red that applies across all games because it is a Core Truth. In other words, the writers who must know the truth must know that only 16 people were on the island that day (And I bet they know exactly which 16.) Then they're free to introduce a 17th Person X for whatever purpose... although of course they can't take part in the murders because of Knox rules.

You may not believe this one applies, but there are going to be reds which we thought didn't apply but actually do. When I get home... (as I'm pretending to work right now ), I'll go through the reds again...

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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
The author has the discretion to use red truth (unless you're going so far as to say the red actually doesn't exist in the texts of writers and is applied by another, meta-writer). That red truth may be wrong; if it is wrong, the episode is a "forgery." Yet the red text may not apply to Rokkenjima Prime at all in the Author Theory world.
Now that's an interesting idea. At the moment I'm of the opinion that EP1-6 all 'conform' but the statement Ronove made that Lambda's game 'lacks love' disturbs me. At one time, I even thought that meant EP5 was unsolvable. And we do seem to see dirty tricks like the idea of the knocking and the letters. Maybe... EP5 and/or 6 are illegitimate stories? The proof of that would be in breaking things from EP1-4. I think I'd need to see more than just our doubts about one line of red...

But it is an interesting idea. Hachijou maybe only authored EP5-6 and so even though she brags about knowing the truth her stories are exposed as fake and she is declared a 'hack writer.' 8)

"Yet the red text may not apply to Rokkenjima Prime at all in the Author Theory world."
Yah, the only things we can get from Rokkenjima Prime is the Core Truth. Some would call the Core Truth the 'setting' although you have to know things like Kinzo being dead in all games. What really happened in those two days on Rokkenjima Prime is of no concern to our particular mystery, because Rokkenjima Prime has no guarantees of solvability; it's reality. However, our mystery is of concern to Rokkenjima Prime because solving it exposes the Core Truth that someone wanted us to know.
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Old 2010-05-25, 19:41   Link #10652
SeagullCrazy
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
I'm not calling it a devil's proof I'm saying that like the Decalogue it's an argument as dubious as the devil's proof. You don't have to make a blue about that. If we were using the devil's proof it would be the opposite pattern. We'd be saying since we don't know what the real rokkenjima is, or if we've ever seen it yet, there is no way of proving Erika does not exist on Rokkenjima prime.
Well.... that's all I've got, really. Battler used Method X to find out that Erika didn't go to Rokkenjima-prime.
(EDIT: Wow, did I just use a double-devil's proof? An undeniable method to prove an unprovable fact? )

My original point was that universal red texts apply because the writer wants them to. Think about it this way: you want to write an alternate truth about the mass murder incident. Because of the devil's proof, you can put Erika in your story. But if it were suddenly revealed that Erika was never on that island at all, no one will believe your story. So it is in the author's favor to use proven information to include in their story.

For EPs 1-4, Kinzo was already dead. That's because the author wanted to use accurate information to get the reader to believe in the story. If we suddenly have someone else write the story ( as in EP5) then they might not include "accurate information", and insert Erika into the story. The same applies to EP6.
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Old 2010-05-25, 19:44   Link #10653
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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
Anyways, my idea was that the 17 person limit (and now the 16 person count at the end of EP6) is a red that applies across all games because it is a Core Truth. In other words, the writers who must know the truth must know that only 16 people were on the island that day (And I bet they know exactly which 16.) Then they're free to introduce a 17th Person X for whatever purpose... although of course they can't take part in the murders because of Knox rules.

You may not believe this one applies, but there are going to be reds which we thought didn't apply but actually do. When I get home... (as I'm pretending to work right now ), I'll go through the reds again...
It doesn't have to be 16 for that red to work though. Erika just can't be included among the 17 or someone has to be written out for her to be part of the 17. That's why they say EVEN IF she's included it's still seventeen.

We're very sorry, but even if we welcome you, the number of people is seventeen.

Emphasis mine.
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Old 2010-05-25, 19:54   Link #10654
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Originally Posted by SeagullCrazy View Post
My original point was that universal red texts apply because the writer wants them to. Think about it this way: you want to write an alternate truth about the mass murder incident. Because of the devil's proof, you can put Erika in your story. But if it were suddenly revealed that Erika was never on that island at all, no one will believe your story. So it is in the author's favor to use proven information to include in their story.
Then why did the author first introduce that little tidbit about 07151129 in episode 3? Shouldn't that be evidence that the author would have to be experimenting with possible truths that get more exposition later?

Either that or the author is searching for the truth themselves and more information that wasn't there before gets revealed later that may or may not be true for Rokkenjima prime.

Face it the author is just winging it.
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Old 2010-05-25, 19:59   Link #10655
SeagullCrazy
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Then why did the author first introduce that little tidbit about 07151129 in episode 3? Shouldn't that be evidence that the author would have to be experimenting with possible truths that get more exposition later?
Some possibilities I can think of:
  • The author knows about the letters and access code
  • The author knows what 07151129 means
  • The author sent the letters
  • All of the above
To me, it's just more evidence supporting Ssol's Asumu Theory.
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Old 2010-05-25, 20:06   Link #10656
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Originally Posted by SeagullCrazy View Post
In Rokkenjima-prime, a devil's proof can exist. The Knox rules don't apply, so I don't need evidence to back anything up. Method X can exist. Evidence X doesn't need to exist. Witches can exist.

Rokkenjima-prime isn't a mystery novel. If the Meta-World is a metaphor for the readers and writer of the stories, then that's all the evidence we need to say that the writer (Battler) knows that Erika never was on Rokkenjima-prime, and can use the red to deny her existence.
Sorry, I'm still a few messages behind... as I said.. I'm still trying to pretend to work. 8)

This is what I thought as well. This is in fact explained in her TIPS. People found out she was around the area and mysteriously disappeared. Her family theorized she washed ashore and was caught up with the whole Rokkenjima Explosion Incident.

What I think happened at the end of EP6 is that people found out that she really did die and never made it somehow. So she can no longer be used as a character. The possible subset of kakera, or the possible area for Author's Speculation shrunk. (Author's Speculation is the other thing I mentioned that is 'like' the Blue Truth... though of course not the same.)

In other words, the Author's Speculation turned into Core Truth. By analogy, a blue truth was verified by a red. (Of course, the blue/red text is not the same thing.) My idea is that the more the Core Truth is revealed the more we'll all hit the 'Truth' that the EP1-2 writer was looking for.

This is why Hachijou, or was it Featherine, said she investigated details of Kyrie's pregnancy and added it to EP5 or something. This is another example of Author's Speculation turning into Core Truth. (So long as the research was real and recognized by everyone.)

There's a way to include the analogus Gold Truth in there somewhere! 8) I can't think too much about it right now...
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Old 2010-05-25, 20:14   Link #10657
blitz1/2
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
It doesn't have to be 16 for that red to work though. Erika just can't be included among the 17 or someone has to be written out for her to be part of the 17. That's why they say EVEN IF she's included it's still seventeen.

We're very sorry, but even if we welcome you, the number of people is seventeen.

Emphasis mine.
But then we can also say that "furniture" aren't people thus giving reason for Erika to exist.

Or maybe "Battler" doesn't exist either and that it was just some person in a persona of Battler (personality wise)
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Old 2010-05-25, 20:17   Link #10658
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Originally Posted by blitz1/2 View Post
But then we can also say that "furniture" aren't people thus giving reason for Erika to exist.

Or maybe "Battler" doesn't exist either and that it was just some person in a persona of Battler (personality wise)
Then Shannon, Kanon, Genji, and etc. wouldn't count as people, so there would be less than 17 people
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Old 2010-05-25, 20:26   Link #10659
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Then Shannon, Kanon, Genji, and etc. wouldn't count as people, so there would be less than 17 people
Well, then at least that can gives rise that the "second" Battler can exist.
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Old 2010-05-25, 20:32   Link #10660
Judoh
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There are at least 8 different answers for those final reds that we've theorized so far. Listed here.

http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...postcount=8933
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