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Old 2010-06-14, 01:50   Link #11021
Kaisos Erranon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
So who can we point the accusing finger at for that one?
Probably this guy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
So it probably isn't someone who actually plans on surviving. People like George don't seem to fit that.
Probably a person involved with the Beatrice conspiracy. At this point, I'm inclined to suspect Shannon, but it could definitely be an outside group. Someone who doesn't mind everyone on the island dying...
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Old 2010-06-14, 01:51   Link #11022
Kylon99
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I'm having trouble suspecting anyone as well, except for maybe Kinzo. I don't actually believe Kinzo is as bad as everyone says he is...

but if he IS... then maybe he's the only one willing to kill his whole family, house, island and everything else.

Does the culprit for the 10th Twilight have to obey Knox rules though, along with all the other culprits (if they are indeed separate)? And therefore has to be someone who was introduced early in the story?

EDIT: Ohhh wait... can we also suspect Krauss? Who arguably has done an investigation on the island, and probably has discovered enough explosive to do the damage that we have seen? One plausible reason is that if he's going to be ruined then he'll make damned sure everyone and everything else goes with him. It's not the first time we've seen murder-suicides on financial ruin... the question is, is this plausible for Krauss. I'm assuming that he does have the ability to disarm it and was counting on that.

We have never seen Krauss survive though, so maybe he and certain other people are guaranteed to never survive to the end.

Last edited by Kylon99; 2010-06-14 at 02:02.
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Old 2010-06-14, 02:01   Link #11023
Judoh
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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
Does the culprit for the 10th Twilight have to obey Knox rules though, along with all the other culprits (if they are indeed separate)? And therefore has to be someone who was introduced early in the story?
Knox's 1st. It is forbidden for the culprit to be anyone not mentioned in the early part of the story! A person first introduced in the 5th game cannot be named as the CULPRIT...!!

Doesn't say anything about culprits that were first introduced in the second, third, or fourth games.

Last edited by Judoh; 2010-06-14 at 02:23.
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Old 2010-06-14, 02:25   Link #11024
Judoh
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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
EDIT: Ohhh wait... can we also suspect Krauss? Who arguably has done an investigation on the island, and probably has discovered enough explosive to do the damage that we have seen?
Krauss is the only person I am 100% certain could commit suicide like that. Shannon is a maybe for me.

As for the how Krauss got the explosives you can thank Oliver. He has an awesome explanation for that.

Keep in mind though that this method could just as easily be an accident as it could be deliberate.
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Old 2010-06-14, 08:05   Link #11025
Jan-Poo
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It saddens me how everyone gives practically for granted that the "unfortunate incident" was caused by bombs, even so I believe there are tons of elements to understand that this isn't a likely scenario.

But this kind of general agreement leaves me too discouraged to start a debate, just don't say I haven't warned you.

Your understanding of the proportion of the disaster is also very far from the kind of destructive force that I think, at this point, is reasonable to assume.

This is what I believe should be expected:

Spoiler for Rokkenjima before and after the incident :
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Old 2010-06-14, 08:23   Link #11026
Krystalwitch
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
I can't suspect anyone on the island for placing the bomb! I just can't...!
  • Asumu (don't underestimate a woman scorned)
I don't believe in the bomb theory nor the pony theory, but that possibility is highly possible. (I'm not talking about the bomb theory)

Because:
  • She was introduced in EP1
  • She has an important role in the story (if it wasn't important that Battler wasn't born from Asumu, they wouldn't have said that)
  • Her death is not confirmed in red.
  • His son "Battler" may be the baby who was given to Natsuhi.

And I know I'm going to be shoot to death by BxB fans... but I actually believe that Beatrice = Asumu.

.... *runs away*
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Old 2010-06-14, 08:26   Link #11027
Renall
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I think "bomb" is convenient shorthand for "whatever causes a substantial environmental and anti-personnel disaster." We don't actually know what the causative event is, except that it is highly lethal and has a large, but not island-encompassing danger radius.

Calling it a "bomb" somewhat attributes to it a human cause. And I think most people expect, or at least are hoping, that the cause is a human agent. It would seem kind of silly if it were an accident or natural disaster. So even if it's a volcano or landslide or swamp gas or something, some person on the island or off it was acting on that to exploit it and ensure it did whatever it was it did.
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Old 2010-06-14, 08:31   Link #11028
Krystalwitch
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
I think "bomb" is convenient shorthand for "whatever causes a substantial environmental and anti-personnel disaster." We don't actually know what the causative event is, except that it is highly lethal and has a large, but not island-encompassing danger radius.

Calling it a "bomb" somewhat attributes to it a human cause. And I think most people expect, or at least are hoping, that the cause is a human agent. It would seem kind of silly if it were an accident or natural disaster. So even if it's a volcano or landslide or swamp gas or something, some person on the island or off it was acting on that to exploit it and ensure it did whatever it was it did.
Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not PRESENTED...!!

I think that if it was a bomb or something, there has to be proves. And, of course, before Ep5, because Battler supposedly "reached the truth" at EP5, and Ryuukishi says it's more than possible to solve it up to EP5.

That is what I believe. (Yeah, I'm mystery xD)
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Old 2010-06-14, 08:32   Link #11029
momobunny
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krystalwitch View Post
I don't believe in the bomb theory nor the pony theory, but that possibility is highly possible. (I'm not talking about the bomb theory)

Because:
  • She was introduced in EP1
  • She has an important role in the story (if it wasn't important that Battler wasn't born from Asumu, they wouldn't have said that)
  • Her death is not confirmed in red.
  • His son "Battler" may be the baby who was given to Natsuhi.

And I know I'm going to be shoot to death by BxB fans... but I actually believe that Beatrice = Asumu.

.... *runs away*
I'd love if Asumu had a role in the story... I've always wanted to see what she looked like and know what she was like as a character.
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Old 2010-06-14, 09:10   Link #11030
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
EDIT: Ohhh wait... can we also suspect Krauss? Who arguably has done an investigation on the island, and probably has discovered enough explosive to do the damage that we have seen? One plausible reason is that if he's going to be ruined then he'll make damned sure everyone and everything else goes with him. It's not the first time we've seen murder-suicides on financial ruin... the question is, is this plausible for Krauss. I'm assuming that he does have the ability to disarm it and was counting on that.
Krauss definitely has an opportunity to place a bomb, means to acquire one, a motive to blow everything up (according to Ep5, he doesn't even own the mansion itself anymore, he signed the deed over as the collateral for a loan that he did not receive in a legally registered manner) and the only stumbling block here is that he doesn't seem to be ready to give up just yet according to visible characterisation.

However, there's one interesting thing about Krauss and his investigation of the island that has yet to be addressed.

Let us assume that the guesthouse is to be a hotel. But it only contains about 10 rooms. For a resort hotel, that's very small. Average room counts in hotels differ depending on their intended markets, but they start at about 70. Even if one is aiming for a 'quiet little hotel in picturesque wilderness', 40-50 would still be a more reasonable number, because it's simply not sufficiently profitable to bother otherwise.

Construction on an undeveloped island is a lot more expensive than it is on the mainland, or on a more developed island, because you have to pay for marine shipment of labour and materials, energy to run the construction, and various expenses associated with delays when anything of this is arriving late because of weather. It is not very reasonable to assume that Krauss planned to build five of those modular guesthouse blocks -- it would be far more expensive than just building a single 50-room one.

Building a 10-room guesthouse when a 5-room would suffice for the foreseeable future is obviously odd, but building a 10-room resort hotel is no less odd. So what did he really plan to do with the island?
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Old 2010-06-14, 11:25   Link #11031
Judoh
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Originally Posted by Krystalwitch View Post
Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not PRESENTED...!!

I think that if it was a bomb or something, there has to be proves. And, of course, before Ep5, because Battler supposedly "reached the truth" at EP5, and Ryuukishi says it's more than possible to solve it up to EP5.

That is what I believe. (Yeah, I'm mystery xD)
maybe you missed the latest interview?

Quote:
Originally Posted by the latest interview
In addition, the word "Rokkenjima Explosion accident" appeared for the first time this game.

Ryuukishi: That may have been the first time the word appeared, but the epilogue of EP1 did say that "the jaw was the only part of Maria's corpse that could be found". Furthermore, in EP4, it was shown that Ange's boat was unable to dock at the mansion's harbor and that the remains of the mansion were missing, so it should be possible to link that with "something happened that changed the terrain". So, the words "Rokkenjima Explosion accident" are not a hint, but one of the answers. To go even further, one could say that all things that appeared after EP5 are not hints, but part of the answer.
you may not think the explosion accident was intentional, but don't claim there are no hints. I was talking about these hints he said since it's beginning so I really don't see any room for debate other than whether the disaster was intentional or not. An explosion at least is pretty much confirmed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
It saddens me how everyone gives practically for granted that the "unfortunate incident" was caused by bombs, even so I believe there are tons of elements to understand that this isn't a likely scenario.

But this kind of general agreement leaves me too discouraged to start a debate, just don't say I haven't warned you.
Bomb is just what people call it. It's the title of the theory. I don't have a problem with debating what the disaster is, but most people I've debated with here don't want to debate about what the disaster is that killed everyone that was left. Instead they want to debate what it it is that killed Battler in Beatrice's final riddle, which doesn't leave much to the imagination. The only other solutions I've seen for his death are poison and salmonella, which have even less hints and are grasping even more straws to make it true.

Last edited by Judoh; 2010-06-14 at 12:05.
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Old 2010-06-14, 12:35   Link #11032
Kylon99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
It saddens me how everyone gives practically for granted that the "unfortunate incident" was caused by bombs, even so I believe there are tons of elements to understand that this isn't a likely scenario.
I'm just calling it a bomb just as shorthand. Because of the rigged nature of the event and also because it's said to be a 六軒島爆発事故 (rokkenjima bakuhatsu jiko) ... some kind of explosive event.

I think almost everyone here has concluded it was some kind of explosion triggering a massive geological event, most likely a landslide.

Actually, that picture that you got, was that from the anime? Because that's a rather large, large blast radius. So maybe something activated a volcano... but anyways, I think we've been down this path already.

I'm mostly interested in searching for the culprit of the 10th Twilight (which seems to be Krauss) and then his motive.

What it seems like to me now is that maybe there's absolutely no way for Krauss to survive any game. Like the opposite to Battler; there's just too many people out for his head. If someone like him never survives then it makes sense that the final incident can never be disarmed, only avoided.
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Old 2010-06-14, 12:47   Link #11033
Raiza Sunozaki
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Yeah, the Bomb Theory is just a convenient title to combine the Boiler Explosion Theory, the Volcanic Gas Explosion Theory, the Generic Unexplained Explosion Theory and the Orbital Particle Beam Shot Theory into one idea: that Rokkenjima has an explosion on it sometime around midnight.
Well, since Ryuukishi's all but confirmed it, I guess it's not really a theory anymore.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
This is what I believe should be expected:

Spoiler for Rokkenjima before and after the incident :
Looking at your picture, it looks like the structural stability of the island is what gets hit by the bomb the hardest. Which would explain why there's now a massive hole in the middle of the island.
Underground Explosion Theory, anyone?
And I mean deep underground. Not just the boiler in the basement deep. Probably thirty to fourty metres underground deep.
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Old 2010-06-14, 13:37   Link #11034
Judoh
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My main problem with a landslide or an underground explosion is that it makes finding Maria's jaw less likely, and that seems to be important evidence. (with a landslide it'd be like looking for a needle in a hay stack) I guess it's not impossible, but I'd have doubts if the entire mansion area was underwater.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Raiza Sunozaki View Post
Looking at your picture, it looks like the structural stability of the island is what gets hit by the bomb the hardest. Which would explain why there's now a massive hole in the middle of the island.
Underground Explosion Theory, anyone?
And I mean deep underground. Not just the boiler in the basement deep. Probably thirty to fourty metres underground deep.
A tunnel collapse would probably do the trick and it might take less fire power to accomplish if we assume that the tunnels in episode 4 are real, that they're below sea level, and that they cover a wide area like that.

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Originally Posted by Raiza Sunozaki View Post
the Orbital Particle Beam Shot Theory
Where does this theory come from if you don't mind me asking?
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Old 2010-06-14, 13:56   Link #11035
DgBarca
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Hey, I just thought of something even more obvious that the bomb theory.
Something terribly obvious.
The weather was awful, no ?
TIDAL WAVEEEEEEEEEE
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Old 2010-06-14, 14:08   Link #11036
Raiza Sunozaki
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh
Where does this theory come from if you don't mind me asking?
Something Oliver arbitrarily threw out a while back. I found it hilarious at the time, so I threw it in there as a crack theory.
Here's the post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
The 'violet thunderbolt' and Ep5 opening movie make me think that the 24:00 endgame event is not a bomb but an orbital particle beam shot.

Seriously, it would perfectly explain why it can't happen the earlier night - satellite positioning issues!
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Old 2010-06-14, 14:09   Link #11037
Krystalwitch
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
maybe you missed the latest interview?
I missed, though I still believe that there must be some kind of connection to anything.

DGBarca: Lol XD I can't say more than that, it's just so LOL XD
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Old 2010-06-14, 14:13   Link #11038
DgBarca
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Originally Posted by Krystalwitch View Post
DGBarca: Lol XD I can't say more than that, it's just so LOL XD
Marisa and Murasa are the culprits, ZUN hijacked Umineko from the beginning. END OF THE TALE. TOUHOU WON AGAIN.
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Old 2010-06-14, 18:17   Link #11039
Raiza Sunozaki
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Originally Posted by DgBarca View Post
Marisa and Murasa are the culprits, ZUN hijacked Umineko from the beginning. END OF THE TALE. TOUHOU WON AGAIN.
Crack theories are fun.

Spoiler for Crack Theory:
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Old 2010-06-14, 18:48   Link #11040
Laserworm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Well most people would say it's common sense that you have to be a living person to begin with to die. The only time a red has been used to say someone is alive is in EVA's reds because she wants to trap Battler. And saying it's impossible for a human to kill him is basically saying he's alive anyway.

using your logic I can say.

George has never been proclaimed to be dead until the end of any of the games. Since he is not proclaimed to be dead until that time I can assume he is alive to be a murderer until the end in all games.

What now?
The reason it only applies to Kanon is because he is suspisous, there are so many funny points about him. And no it doesn't, that red doesn't prove he is alive. A rock can be called dead. Because it was never alive in the first place, and the term for dead means something that isn't living, since the rock isn't alive it is can be called 'dead'.

No kind of human or dead person on the island could have killed Kanon This statment can really be taken two ways. 1. Kanon never died, and 2. Kanon was never alive in the first place, therefore making it impossible for any thing to kill him, ever. Because if he was never alive in the first place, it is impossible to kill him, since he is already 'dead.'
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