AnimeSuki Forums

Register Forum Rules FAQ Members List Social Groups Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Go Back   AnimeSuki Forum > Anime Discussion > Older Series > Retired > Umineko

Notices

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 2010-06-16, 19:34   Link #11141
Raiza Sunozaki
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
I have given the alternatives:

1) the culprit knows about the explosion but he's mad.

2) the culprit doesn't know about the explosion.


This way you can still have your serial murder in the island. However the idea that a perfectly rational person decides to complicate an already perfect plan doesn't make any sense, unless I'm missing something.
Which indicates it would be number two.
If you intend to say that there are no deaths beside the ones the explosion causes, how do you get around these red?
"Kanon was killed in this room." This is said before the gameboard finishes, so it must happen before the explosion.
"The culprit appeared openly before Nanjo's eyes, and as they both looked at each other's faces, the culprit killed him." Unless the culprit is the one detonating the bomb, the explosion could not have killed Nanjo.
"The bullet buried into Natsuhi's forehead was not fired from Natsuhi's gun!" This one takes some logic. It states that there is a bullet buried in Natushi's head, so unless the culprit shot her after the explosion took place, which is impossible to begin with, not to mention redundant, she was killed via gunfire before the explosion.
There is definitely some murders going on during the family conference. This is undeniable.
Raiza Sunozaki is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 19:45   Link #11142
Judoh
Mystery buff
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
I have explained the alternatives:

1) the culprit knows about the explosion but he's mad.

2) the culprit doesn't know about the explosion.


This way you can still have your serial murder in the island. However the idea that a perfectly rational person decides to complicate an already perfect plan doesn't make any sense, unless I'm missing something.
How about this then?

The culprit knows about the explosion from the person who prepared it. He is allowed to save one person from death, but he can only choose himself or someone he loves. The culprit murders to isolate that person and bring him/her to Kuwadorian. Or there are no murders and the culprit isn't a culprit, but is out to save himself making him a murderer by not saying anything.
Judoh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 20:09   Link #11143
Jan-Poo
別にいいけど
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
@Raiza
That matter is easily explainable with the author theory. It's not like those reds about murders must affect the real world especially considering that they contradict themselves among various games. It is therefore obvious that those reds are only valid in the limited field of their own respective game. Once you get outside of that game perspective those reds have absolutely no value.

@Judoh

Your first hypothesis can work, but in this case you are imagining that the one who set up the explosion is the actual planner of the ritual murder and forces a second party to execute it.
So in a sense we still have a single person, planning both murders plans, which is clearly mad.

the second Hypothesis is a scenario without ritual killing and just an explosion that kills everyone, which I thought you were against...
__________________

Jan-Poo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 20:13   Link #11144
Shiro Kaisen
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Erika explicitly states that she left behind all sorts of evidence when she killed the First Twilight victims, knowing that it would all be completely irrelevant anyway. Therefore, the culprit has this thought process as well, and is exploiting the bomber's plan so that they can commit murder, knowing that the bomb might not manage to kill everyone for Reason X (see:Eva). Note that the bomber never survives. So assuming the bomb isn't a murder/suicide, the bomber's plan is always ruined.
Shiro Kaisen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 20:15   Link #11145
Raiza Sunozaki
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
@Raiza
That matter is easily explainable with the author theory. It's not like those reds about murders must affect the real world especially considering that they contradict themselves among various games. It is therefore obvious that those reds are only valid in the limited field of their own respective game. Once you get outside of that game perspective those reds have absolutely no value.
This is why I chose individual reds that establish that someone dies before the explosion from three different games. The only non-Chiru arc I didn't touch was Episode 4, for hopefully understandable reasons. Unless the Only Explosion Theory can explain why in each game, there is at least one person who dies before the explosion, then there is some discrepancy.
Raiza Sunozaki is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 20:20   Link #11146
Shiro Kaisen
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
How about this then?

Or there are no murders and the culprit isn't a culprit, but is out to save himself making him a murderer by not saying anything.
Erika kills at least five people in Episode Six. Therefore, there is a culprit.
Shiro Kaisen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 20:25   Link #11147
LyricalAura
Dea ex Kakera
 
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
I don't know that you can safely discard the volcano eruption idea on the grounds that it's too unlikely and coincidental. The mystery couldn't exist without the help of the cat box created by the typhoon and the explosion, so in a sense the fact that Meta Beato "exists" at all fundamentally requires that the cat box be created. It's like a version of the Weak Anthropic Principle, which basically says that "we observe that the universe is in a configuration that supports our existence, even though that configuration is incredibly unlikely, precisely because if it weren't in that configuration, we wouldn't be here to observe it."

We've also seen that, out of the mass of elements we originally attributed to Beatrice, many of them were actually caused by unrelated conspiracies or coincidences, some of which were completely benign. Considering that Beato was apparently trying to get Battler to figure out something more important than the culprit's identity, it would be entirely in keeping with her strategy to make the explosion look like a malevolent act to interfere with his reasoning about motives.

Oh, and don't you think it'd be interesting to have a miraculous event certainly create a perfect cat box?
__________________
"Something has fallen on us that falls very seldom on men; perhaps the worst thing that can fall on them. We have found the truth; and the truth makes no sense."
LyricalAura is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 20:32   Link #11148
Raiza Sunozaki
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
I don't know that you can safely discard the volcano eruption idea on the grounds that it's too unlikely and coincidental. The mystery couldn't exist without the help of the cat box created by the typhoon and the explosion, so in a sense the fact that Meta Beato "exists" at all fundamentally requires that the cat box be created. It's like a version of the Weak Anthropic Principle, which basically says that "we observe that the universe is in a configuration that supports our existence, even though that configuration is incredibly unlikely, precisely because if it weren't in that configuration, we wouldn't be here to observe it."
One of my problems with the explosion being a force of nature (becuase I completely forgot the other one) is that in the 1998 section of Episode 4, that seems to be the common assumption of the cause of the explosion, or accident, for most of the common population. And if there's one thing we've learned about the people in 1998, is that more often than not, their assumptions are wrong. Why should this particular one be right?
If I can remember the other point, I'll bring it up.
Raiza Sunozaki is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 20:34   Link #11149
Shiro Kaisen
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raiza Sunozaki View Post
One of my problems with the explosion being a force of nature (becuase I completely forgot the other one) is that in the 1998 section of Episode 4, that seems to be the common assumption of the cause of the explosion, or accident, for most of the common population. And if there's one thing we've learned about the people in 1998, is that more often than not, their assumptions are wrong. Why should this particular one be right?
If I can remember the other point, I'll bring it up.
Furthermore, I will kill you. I'm not sure how I feel about Beato being a volcano.
Shiro Kaisen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 20:45   Link #11150
Jan-Poo
別にいいけど
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shiro Kaisen View Post
Erika kills at least five people in Episode Six. Therefore, there is a culprit.
Erika doesn't even exist in other games. The fact she's a culprit in Episode 6 is totally irrelevant for the first for the first fives.
Which proves my point. No matter how many culprits you have dispersed in various episodes, all that really matters is what happens in "rokkenjima prime" .

@LyricalAura
I'm glad I'm not alone who think it that way.
The problem remains about how Beatrice knew about the volcanic explosion. Of course she could have been a good observer of the seagull's behavior, and she might have known the danger of an eruption since a long time. But hints suggests she was planning this since a long time. And while an incredibly exceptional event can be explained with the anthropic principle, an exceptional event that happens to fit with someone's plan is a completely different matter.

I wonder if we can put it past Kinzo the creation of a system to trigger a volcanic explosion...


@Raiza
You can't be wrong about a volcanic explosion. If it happens there's no way to miss it, nor to mistake something else for it.
__________________

Jan-Poo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 20:53   Link #11151
Judoh
Mystery buff
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
Ironically it's a lot easier to come up with motives if the explosion really is an accident and someone survived due to reason X. Which kind of correlates with And then there were none.

If you assume it's deliberate you have to assume there is a motive for a Culprit to destroy everything on the island, and other than the letter about Beatrice "collecting interest" that has yet to be explained. So maybe rather than a motive for murder we should be asking for a motive for a deliberate explosion. Why can't it just be an accident?

EDIT:

And this brings up another sensitive topic. Why does the Rokkenjima accident have to do with Battler's sin? Why does everyone die because he made a promise? We have enough trouble explaining the murders with his sin how does an explosion fit into that?
  • Because of your sin, people die.
  • Due to your sin, a great many humans on this island die.
  • No one escapes, all die.

The only explanations I can come up with are

1. He's cursed by something supernatural
2. the person he sinned against turned (one or more people) suicidal.

Last edited by Judoh; 2010-06-16 at 21:10.
Judoh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 21:08   Link #11152
Jan-Poo
別にいいけど
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
Yes this is another option.

1) Nobody knew about the explosion, it just happened.

In this case the anthropic principle works. But then you need to explain the letters with the bank accounts.

This could be because Beatrice knew the killer's plans or she's the killer herself. And then an explosion just happens to solve everyone's problems, permanently.

But I don't particularly like this possibility myself...
__________________

Jan-Poo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 21:12   Link #11153
zRyuu
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
It makes sense that the culprit knows about this "accident" or w/e happened in the end. If the culprit wasnt sure about this "accident", then he/she wouldnt have bothered about writing the message bottles with all the fantasy stories. No accident = police/detectives can find out what really happened, thus the fantasy stories would be meaningless. So i think the culprit had it all prepared, therefore i find it hard to believe it was something like a natural disaster coz then it'd be unpredictable. If he/she wasnt sure that it was going to happen why'd he/she bother on writing the msgs bottles?
zRyuu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 21:17   Link #11154
Judoh
Mystery buff
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
Quote:
Originally Posted by zRyuu View Post
It makes sense that the culprit knows about this "accident" or w/e happened in the end. If the culprit wasnt sure about this "accident", then he/she wouldnt have bothered about writing the message bottles with all the fantasy stories. No accident = police/detectives can find out what really happened, thus the fantasy stories would be meaningless. So i think the culprit had it all prepared, therefore i find it hard to believe it was something like a natural disaster coz then it'd be unpredictable. If he/she wasnt sure that it was going to happen why'd he/she bother on writing the msgs bottles?
If it was a natural disaster or an accident the message bottles and the letters would have to all be written afterward.

If it was deliberate the message bottles can actually be prepared beforehand, in the middle, or afterward.
Judoh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 21:17   Link #11155
Jan-Poo
別にいいけど
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
So basically the dilemma is split into two parts:

1) You can't manipulate or predict a natural disaster

2) You can't blow off several tons of explosive and make it look like an accident (whops!)
__________________

Jan-Poo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 21:19   Link #11156
Kylon99
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Meta-Meta-Meta-Space
Wait a second, let's get the terminology down:

Culprit - the original killer or betrayer of the First Twilight, but not revenge killers like Eva
Bomber - the 10th Twilight Explosion incident inducer
Beatrice - ???
Author(s) - the writer(s) of of the episodes

It is possible that some of these identities will be the same, but for clarity's sake, we shouldn't assume that the culprit wrote the bottle messages just yet until we're sure... It's more careful to identify them separately with an eye that they may be the same person rather than try to lump them together.

Unless we're sure now?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
So basically the dilemma is split into two parts:

1) You can't manipulate or predict a natural disaster

2) You can't blow off several tons of explosive and make it look like an accident (whops!)
I think this is why Krauss sticks out like a sore thumb because of his 'survey' of the entire island. He's in the best position to understand the structure of the island and possibly discover that it's an unstable volcano or can easily cause a landslide. Maybe the only other person even remotely understanding that is Kinzo... and for someone even less capable is Shannon who messed around at the shrine.

You know, it could still very well have something to do with the shrine as someone once posted. That the shrine was sealing off some kind of gas that could cause sickness. And Shannon undid that. Of course, the knowledge would have to come from Krauss... he could have ordered her to do that and George wanted to investigate Natsuhi's mirror was some kind of trying to understand what Krauss was doing? It's plausible if a bit thin...

And maybe that's why Beatrice was weak to the mirror; not to the mirror itself but to being exposed somehow for being a fake... if someone gets a hold of the mirror they will understand and break the 10th Twilight? (If you believe George is the culprit this could mean that he figured out there was someone else acting to kill... and then got killed himself. Heh.)
Kylon99 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 21:24   Link #11157
Raiza Sunozaki
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
And this brings up another sensitive topic. Why does the Rokkenjima accident have to do with Battler's sin? Why does everyone die because he made a promise? We have enough trouble explaining the murders with his sin how does an explosion fit into that?
  • Because of your sin, people die.
  • Due to your sin, a great many humans on this island die.
  • No one escapes, all die.

The only explanations I can come up with are

1. He's cursed by something supernatural
2. the person he sinned against turned (one or more people) suicidal.
Or, you could go for a more complicated explanation, like the person who he broke a promise to, his sin, fell into despair after that, becoming a miserable, hopeless being.
Solving the Epitaph does not grant the family survival from the explosion. However, Battler realising his sin does. In doing so, he shoulders responsiblity for his sin and the well-being of the family, essentially, becoming the next head.
I think how Battler inherits Beatrice's title after he arrives at the truth in Episode 5 is supposed to represent a similar sequence of events that will proceed if he ever realizes his sin in-game. Beatrice is sort of a temporary head while Kinzo is dead and the new head hasn't taken their place yet, it seems. So him inheriting her title is similar to him inheriting the title of Ushiromiya family head.
But, since he has never realized his sin in-game, we get the endgame explosion each Episode.
I'm getting a feeling now that the promise is something more that the simple Pony Theory. We know the adults always got particularily vicious around the conference, I'm pretty sure even Battler remembered that from six years ago. So maybe the promise went something like this.
After a particularily painful arguement between the adults, Shannon/Jessica ran off in tears, upset at the corruption of the parents, or in Shannon's case, maybe a bit too much bullying. Battler, on close terms with both of them, to a point where it's likely there's some crushes flying around, goes to try and comfort them. In his male stupidity, he makes the promise to them that he'll come and become the next head of the family, and fix everyone's stupid problems once and for all.
But as we know, Battler never honours the promise he makes. So this causes Shannon or Jessica to come to believe that there is no saving the family from it's corruption.
What are your thoughts?
Raiza Sunozaki is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 21:28   Link #11158
zRyuu
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
Wait a second, let's get the terminology down:

Culprit - the original killer or betrayer of the First Twilight, but not revenge killers like Eva
Bomber - the 10th Twilight Explosion incident inducer
Beatrice - ???
Author(s) - the writer(s) of of the episodes

It is possible that some of these identities will be the same, but for clarity's sake, we shouldn't assume that the culprit wrote the bottle messages just yet until we're sure... It's more careful to identify them separately with an eye that they may be the same person rather than try to lump them together.

Unless we're sure now?
Well according to Ange in EP4, whoever wrote in Maria's diary also wrote the letters and Maria has told Rosa that Beatrice has written in her diary, i think in EP2 when Rosa saw all the magic stuffs in her diary. Same handwriting.
zRyuu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 21:29   Link #11159
Raiza Sunozaki
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
Wait a second, let's get the terminology down:

Culprit - the original killer or betrayer of the First Twilight, but not revenge killers like Eva
Bomber - the 10th Twilight Explosion incident inducer
Beatrice - ???
Author(s) - the writer(s) of of the episodes
Following this since it's birth, I'm pretty sure it's something like this:

Culprit - The one who orchestrates the murders of people before the endgame explosion wipes out any survivors. Not Natsuhi, Eva, Battler, Nanjo or Beatrice.
Bomber - The person who plants the explosive device which inccurs the devastation of the endgame explosion. Possibly, and in my opinion, very likely, Beatrice.
Beatrice - Someone deeply involved in Battler's life on the island six years ago. Almost certainly Jessica or Shannon.
Author(s) - For the sake of the Author Theory; yes, a being which writes one or more of the Episodes.
Raiza Sunozaki is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-06-16, 21:41   Link #11160
zRyuu
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
As for Battler's sin, im thinking in some kind of butterfly effect. There is evidence to think that its a promise in EP5 when Beato calls him a liar and Battler says "i dont remember promising you anything" or something like that.
We know that it was something that happened 6 years ago. Battler remembered that the shrine was not there anymore in Ep2, right? so we can assume he was in the island 6 years ago.
What do we know about Battler 6 years ago? I think its written in an Episode that he was interested in Shannon b/4 right? In EP3, the line that Battler told Shannon 6 years ago, could it be possibly that it was a promise? "I'll be back, <see you again>. I'll come to greet you riding on a white horse". Obviously he didnt come back for 6 years, Shannon ended up with George. Eva didnt like this. Shannon made this illusion of the witch, the illusion told her to break the mirror to be happy with George and she did it. Kanon was hurt indirectly coz of Shannon's relationship with George and the illusion of the witch. Because of Shannon and George's relationship, Jessica ended up falling in love with Kanon and i could probably go on and try to involve every1 in the island coz of Battler not coming back to Shannon, and Shannon and George getting together.
zRyuu is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:03.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
We use Silk.