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Old 2010-06-17, 01:07   Link #11181
Laserworm
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I know this is a rapid jump from topics. But I'm wondering what people's thoughts are on Ep3 in general, and more in depth about the 2nd twilight thru the 10th. I have a solid idea that connects with all eps expect this one. I have multiple thoughts on this ep, but none are really that solid like the other eps, and in the end they are more like a shot in the dark. My other ideas are surrounded by clues and foreshadowing, but ep3's idea.... is not...
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Old 2010-06-17, 01:13   Link #11182
Judoh
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I think the person who killed most of the people in episode 3 is Hideyoshi. Mainly because the murder method for Maria, Natsuhi, and Krauss looks like a man did it to me. I don't like the idea of Kyrie being a strangler I think she'd do something smarter.
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Old 2010-06-17, 01:16   Link #11183
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
I think the person who killed most of the people in episode 3 is Hideyoshi. Mainly because the murder method for Maria, Natsuhi, and Krauss look like a man did it to me. I don't like the idea of Kyrie being a strangler.
Any clues as to why Hideyoshi would do that to them. And to get around the I was in the room the whole time, for the second twilight.
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Old 2010-06-17, 01:23   Link #11184
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Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post
Any clues as to why Hideyoshi would do that to them. And to get around the I was in the room the whole time, for the second twilight.
Oh I forgot about that red.

Well I guess if Eva killed Maria and told him about it he might use the same method she did (for lack of creativity). That's all I got though I don't think there are many clues about why they murder people the way they do in that episode. Or in any of the episodes for that matter. There have been a lot of different methods.
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Old 2010-06-17, 01:33   Link #11185
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Oh I forgot about that red.

Well I guess if Eva killed Maria and told him about it he might use the same method she did (for lack of creativity). That's all I got though I don't think there are many clues about why they murder people the way they do in that episode. Or in any of the episodes for that matter. There have been a lot of different methods.
I disagree; I think there are lots of clues to why certain methods are chosen, and why certain people are targeted at certain points. Like I said I have solid theories for the other 3 eps, of the first 4, that are backed by many clues. But ep3, is more a shot in the dark.

I think the reason strangling was used, was they didn't have any kind of weapon on them, and they didn't want the victims to call for help. I think the weapon used was something that has been mentioned to us.

My shot in the dark is Nanjo; using his stethoscope to strangle Natsuhi and Krauss, but that could be very wrong. Did they discribe the size of mark around their neck? I can't remember.
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Old 2010-06-17, 01:39   Link #11186
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Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post
Any clues as to why Hideyoshi would do that to them. And to get around the I was in the room the whole time, for the second twilight.
Maria has a scandal with Rosa, Rosa loses herself and strangles Maria in a fit of rage. Trying to save Maria, person X pushes Rosa off and she lands onto the spike of the fence, but it is too late for Maria, she's already dead.

Rosa has a scandal with Maria. Maria actually pushes Rosa, and Rosa slips, landing onto the spike. Maria just stands there giggling insanely after her dream that just involved killing Rosa a thousand times over. Person X, horrified at this strangles Maria out of fear before the demon kid.

With these two scenarios, more or less anyone can plausibly be person X, but Eva is my preferred pick for both.
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Old 2010-06-17, 01:42   Link #11187
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Maria has a scandal with Rosa, Rosa loses herself and strangles Maria in a fit of rage. Trying to save Maria, person X pushes Rosa off and she lands onto the spike of the fence, but it is too late for Maria, she's already dead.

Rosa has a scandal with Maria. Maria actually pushes Rosa, and Rosa slips, landing onto the spike. Maria just stands there giggling insanely after her dream that just involved killing Rosa a thousand times over. Person X, horrified at this strangles Maria out of fear before the demon kid.

With these two scenarios, more or less anyone can plausibly be person X, but Eva is my preferred pick for both.
I don't know; after finding out that Rosa remade Sakutaro for Maria; I more on the side where I don't think Rosa would kill Maria.
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Old 2010-06-17, 01:53   Link #11188
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For the 2nd twilight most people go with Eva accidentally killed Rosa in anger and strangled Maria to shut her up.

For the rest as long as someone is faking it doesn't matter who killed who since there is no proclamation for the time of death here. Most people don't use them, but even Krauss and Natsuhi could've of killed Nanjo, and I guess the japanese fanbase used Natsuhi since that's what Erika's theory in episode 5 is based off of.

Could you list your hints for the murder methods though? I've been assuming that different methods meant different culprits.
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Old 2010-06-17, 02:13   Link #11189
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
For the 2nd twilight most people go with Eva accidentally killed Rosa in anger and strangled Maria to shut her up.

For the rest as long as someone is faking it doesn't matter who killed who since there is no proclamation for the time of death here. Most people don't use them, but even Krauss and Natsuhi could've of killed Nanjo, and I guess the japanese fanbase used Natsuhi since that's what Erika's theory in episode 5 is based off of.

Could you list your hints for the murder methods though? I've been assuming that different methods meant different culprits.
I know they do; and I don't like that idea. I think it is a red herring. Though I think group2. (Though I think it is one person) Kills both Rosa and Maria. And group1 does the rest, expect for Nanjo's murder.

It matters because something rapid is happening that doesn't really fit with Ep 1 & 2. Ep 1, 2, and 4 follow a similar pattern and reasoning, but ep3 is different.

Umm.. that is kind of hard to explain. Since it is more of a concept that is hinted at and not really solid points that I can bring up. Ahh I'm probably not making that much sense right now, but it is really hard to explain. But once you get it, it is really simple and explains a lot. Many strange questions that people have to thrown in new theories to answer, make sense. Most things just click together. Though it might not be right, though if it isn't it is one of the greatest red herrings ever! XD

I think it is more of a concept that can only be understood after figuring it out yourself. Sorry I can't really say much; it is a hard thing to kind of explain. But I will give you some hint into my direction of thinking.

Beatrice wrote these letters in bottles and sent them out; but most likely planted a bomb to destory the whole family; what for? What is the point of these impossible closed rooms; if a bomb is going to destory them?

My concept answers these questions and more. Sorry I couldn't really explain it well. Though like I said, my concept might not be right, but it is backed up by many hints and clues.
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Old 2010-06-17, 02:23   Link #11190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raiza Sunozaki View Post
Following this since it's birth, I'm pretty sure it's something like this:

Culprit - The one who orchestrates the murders of people before the endgame explosion wipes out any survivors. Not Natsuhi, Eva, Battler, Nanjo or Beatrice.
Bomber - The person who plants the explosive device which inccurs the devastation of the endgame explosion. Possibly, and in my opinion, very likely, Beatrice.
Beatrice - Someone deeply involved in Battler's life on the island six years ago. Almost certainly Jessica or Shannon.
Author(s) - For the sake of the Author Theory; yes, a being which writes one or more of the Episodes.
Interesting, mind if I use this for a second?
Spoiler for Culprit theory:
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Old 2010-06-17, 02:26   Link #11191
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*Snip*
The only problem with this is Beatrice says she has no interest in Battler's family problems and mentions that the sin has something to do with what happened on Rokkenjima.
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Old 2010-06-17, 02:31   Link #11192
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post
My concept answers these questions and more. Sorry I couldn't really explain it well. Though like I said, my concept might not be right, but it is backed up by many hints and clues.
A word of advice repeated again and again: If you have a concept you can't explain, either try to avoid mentioning it until it matures, or, much preferably, try to verbalise it anyway, however imperfect your explanation might be -- people poking holes in it will help you make it solid. If nobody else will treat it seriously, I can promise you I will.

The middle ground annoys immensely.

To be more specific about Rosa and Maria, here's a few interesting things to notice:
  • Maria immediately mentions the rose as she wakes up, before anyone can tell her to do anything, before she even knows what time is it.
  • Rosa typically does not give in to Maria while on the island, yet does give in this one time.
  • The rose in Ep3 is marked with 'golden lace' according to the magic scene, yet nobody mentions that golden lace outside the magic scenes.
  • If anyone intended to kill Rosa and kill anyone else afterwards, not even touching Rosa's gun is extremely stupid, unless they already had a gun, i.e. unless it was Rudolf.
  • Pretty much anyone on the island (except maybe Kanon, and I wouldn't count on that) has the physical power to strangle Maria, but not everybody on the island can chase her if she runs, and the faster she runs the harder she is to shoot, past about twenty meters untrained shooters are very likely to miss entirely.
  • Similarly, pretty much anyone can kick Rosa so that she lands onto the fence, including Maria herself, but nobody can be sure she lands onto the fence and dies.
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Old 2010-06-17, 02:43   Link #11193
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
A word of advice repeated again and again: If you have a concept you can't explain, either try to avoid mentioning it until it matures, or, much preferably, try to verbalise it anyway, however imperfect your explanation might be -- people poking holes in it will help you make it solid. If nobody else will treat it seriously, I can promise you I will.

The middle ground annoys immensely.
Ok to get more spefic. My theory revolves around the notion that Beatrice is the 1st culprit, and she has the help of the other servants. If her goal was to make people believe in Beatrice and that Beatrice did all these things with magic, things make sense. She wrote these letters bottle stories to be found so people believe that Beatrice the witch made all that stuff happen to try and get people believe in Beatrice to make a miracle happen. Shannon's line of thinking was this. "If many people believe in Beatrice a miracle may occur." Which explains the bomb, if the mansion was still intact then no one would believe that this fantasy took place.

This also explains Beatrice's letters to the family and the murder choices. She is trying to get as many of them believing as possible before they die because of the bomb. She is trying to create almost impossible closedrooms to try and make the family believe that Beatrice is real, because the more people that believe the better chance the miracle will occur.

That is the bare bones of my thinking. I could go into it way more, but I really don't feel like it right now I want to varify a more solid ep3 answer before going into anything more detailed.
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Old 2010-06-17, 03:04   Link #11194
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post
This also explains Beatrice's letters to the family and the murder choices. She is trying to get as many of them believing as possible before they die because of the bomb. She is trying to create almost impossible closedrooms to try and make the family believe that Beatrice is real, because the more people that believe the better chance the miracle will occur.
The important question you need to answer here is, what could be thought to be so miraculous (but still possible in theory) that it would justify numerous killings or long-lasting complicated trickery? If 'Beatrice' is out to create a long-lasting 'Beatrice Legend' that lives outside the island, the same arguments apply as for wanting everyone simply dead -- engaging in any activities increases the chance that some of them run away and the legend will fail, so she'd better sit tight and watch.

I.e. if everyone believes, and then the mansion blows up anyway, what good those short few hours of believing remaining can be to anyone, what practical, emotional or spiritual purpose do they serve? Answer that plausibly and it will all click into place.

I have previously thrown out a suggestion that it may be that someone is trying to recreate Kinzo in Battler in the same manner as he does it to Beatrice in Ep6, and betting their life on Battler 'becoming Kinzo' and saving everyone, just like Battler bets his life on Beatrice regenerating and saving him in Ep6. This idea failed to gain any support.
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Old 2010-06-17, 03:25   Link #11195
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
The important question you need to answer here is, what could be thought to be so miraculous (but still possible in theory) that it would justify numerous killings or long-lasting complicated trickery? If 'Beatrice' is out to create a long-lasting 'Beatrice Legend' that lives outside the island, the same arguments apply as for wanting everyone simply dead -- engaging in any activities increases the chance that some of them run away and the legend will fail, so she'd better sit tight and watch.

I.e. if everyone believes, and then the mansion blows up anyway, what good those short few hours of believing remaining can be to anyone, what practical, emotional or spiritual purpose do they serve? Answer that plausibly and it will all click into place.

I have previously thrown out a suggestion that it may be that someone is trying to recreate Kinzo in Battler in the same manner as he does it to Beatrice in Ep6, and betting their life on Battler 'becoming Kinzo' and saving everyone, just like Battler bets his life on Beatrice regenerating and saving him in Ep6. This idea failed to gain any support.
My idea is that she wants everyone to be happy. She hoping that by some miracle the witch Beatrice will be born, and make everyone happy with her magic. There are points in the story where it is said. The more people that believe the higher chances are that it might occur. So even just 1 or 2 of the family believing might allow that miracle to happen, she is probably thinking.
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Old 2010-06-17, 03:38   Link #11196
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My idea is that she wants everyone to be happy. She hoping that by some miracle the witch Beatrice will be born, and make everyone happy with her magic. There are points in the story where it is said. The more people that believe the higher chances are that it might occur. So even just 1 or 2 of the family believing might allow that miracle to happen, she is probably thinking.
So you are thinking that someone on the island is actually of a firm belief that the bodily resurrection of Beatrice will occur if sufficient belief with no unbelieving observers is accumulated, and Beatrice will then be able to undo all the murders and bestow gifts as prescribed by the epitaph?

Mind you, that wouldn't be new, and is often cited as the motive for Shkanontice-based interpretations. Generally, such an interpretation is not well liked for the simple reason that such a belief implies heavy delusion if not simply insanity in whoever holds it, and involves holding up a contradiction. Namely, that magic doesn't exist, so you have to fabricate it, and that magic exists, so that all your fabrications are justified in the end.

P.S.: There's another hole in it, but that one is easy to plug. Namely, if I believe that with no unbelieving observers within range, Beatrice will be resurrected, and I believe in Beatrice, so am not an unbelieving observer, I don't need closed rooms. Killing everyone myself is perfectly fine and will achieve the same result quicker.
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Old 2010-06-17, 03:44   Link #11197
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
So you are thinking that someone on the island is actually of a firm belief that the bodily resurrection of Beatrice will occur if sufficient belief with no unbelieving observers is accumulated, and Beatrice will then be able to undo all the murders and bestow gifts as prescribed by the epitaph?

Mind you, that wouldn't be new, and is often cited as the motive for Shkanontice-based interpretations. Generally, such an interpretation is not well liked for the simple reason that such a belief implies heavy delusion if not simply insanity in whoever holds it, and involves holding up a contradiction. Namely, that magic doesn't exist, so you have to fabricate it, and that magic exists, so that all your fabrications are justified in the end.
The person doesn't have to be insane. There are people that believe in magic. And they probably realize they are creating a contradiction, but they are hoping for that miracle to occur.

And I think we have been shown that Shannon has some mental problems. Talking to Beatrice all the time, and if it turns out that Kanon doesn't exist either, then that just proves she has even more problems.
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Old 2010-06-17, 03:56   Link #11198
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The person doesn't have to be insane. There are people that believe in magic. And they probably realize they are creating a contradiction, but they are hoping for that miracle to occur.
I didn't say the motivation is implausible. But it's not very well liked nor popular for a good reason -- there are a lot of perfectly rational and very human motivations to kill that everyone can accept, namely, a lot of money on the table, jealousy and love, and other social reasons. Also, it does not explain the special significance of Battler believing in Beatrice, which would obviously exist, rather than no unbelieving observers remaining within range.

Generally, such an interpretation doesn't win against more normal motives in everyone's eyes even if you provide a forest of hints.
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Old 2010-06-17, 04:07   Link #11199
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
I didn't say the motivation is implausible. But it's not very well liked nor popular for a good reason -- there are a lot of perfectly rational and very human motivations to kill that everyone can accept, namely, a lot of money on the table, jealousy and love, and other social reasons. Also, it does not explain the special significance of Battler believing in Beatrice, which would obviously exist, rather than no unbelieving observers remaining within range.

Generally, such an interpretation doesn't win against more normal motives in everyone's eyes even if you provide a forest of hints.
I can understand why, and normal motives make more logical sense. But I don't think Umineko is going to be so normal. And greed, and jealousy doesn't really explain why everyone has to die. Though I believe that culprit #2 has a more rational reason to murder, (I just have to piece it together)

And explaining why Battler has to believe is easy. BatterxBeato; a happy ending for both Battler and the Golden Witch Beatrice that Shannon created to take away her feelings for Battler.
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Old 2010-06-17, 04:13   Link #11200
Judoh
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
I have previously thrown out a suggestion that it may be that someone is trying to recreate Kinzo in Battler in the same manner as he does it to Beatrice in Ep6, and betting their life on Battler 'becoming Kinzo' and saving everyone, just like Battler bets his life on Beatrice regenerating and saving him in Ep6. This idea failed to gain any support.
I must of missed it. But I can't find the post so... I don't have much to comment on.

Mind you that's not really off the wall. Quite a few people see Kinzo in Battler and not just in his looks, but also in his attitude. Then again they say the same thing about Rudolf and Krauss.

I suggested once that there might be a feud between the servants and some of the adults about which of the cousins they think should be the head. Didn't get much support either. Krauss seems to have put everyone in debt and the rest are not really better off. So if there is a distrust in the adults they might want someone fresh. Some may support Jessica being from the main family and some may support Battler or George. Battler probably gets support LATER though at the last minute since he kind of surprised people with his arrival.

@laserworm: I'd say that theory you have going is kind of typical of what people think of episode 3. Making everybody happy by beleiving in Beatrice to create a miracle though sounds more like a motive for Maria or Kumasawa rather than Shannon to me. Even Kanon mentions Beatrice more than Shannon does, and while I think she also believes in it she doesn't mention the legend herself very often. She kind of avoids it as a topic most of the time.

Last edited by Judoh; 2010-06-17 at 04:23.
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