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Old 2010-06-17, 04:31   Link #11201
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
I suggested once that there might be a feud between the servants and some of the adults about which of the cousins they think should be the head. Krauss seems to have put everyone in debt and the rest are not really better off. So if there is a distrust in the adults they might want someone fresh. Some may support Jessica being from the main family and some may support Battler or George. Battler probably gets support LATER though at the last minute since he kind of surprised people with his arrival.
There's a great puzzle about Battler's birth that I will say remains not solved satisfactorily by any theory, namely, the problem of the Other Battler, and I have a suspicion that Battler actually does have greater inheritance rights than we're lead to believe.

Namely, I think that the Other Battler has to never have existed. While Battler himself opened the door to the idea of reassignability of names, in both other cases where this may be happening (Phantom Kinzo and Zombie Kanon) the interpretation that multiple people lied about what they saw in collusion works more satisfactorily than assuming that names are not unique. Only the Other Battler remains as the case of a non-unique name, and it would be much smoother if the name was somehow unique anyway.

We have the following reds from Ep4 to sort out for this:
  • Beatrice: "I am the Golden Witch, Beatrice. And I opened this game in order to fight Ushiromiya Kinzo's grandchild Ushiromiya Battler."
  • Battler: "Ushiromiya Battler's mother is Ushiromiya Asumu. My name is Ushiromiya Battler. It was from Ushiromiya Asumu that Ushiromiya Battler was born."
  • It all breaks down when he tries to say "It was from Ushiromiya Asumu that I was born." but he gets to 'Ushiromiya' while still in red.
  • Beatrice: "You are not Ushiromiya Asumu's son."
  • Battler: "Ange is, ...my little sister."

From the fact that Ange is This Battler's little sister, we can conclude that either his mother is Kyrie, or his father is Rudolf, or both. From the fact that the attempted red cuts off at "Ushiromiya", we should assume that he was in fact born from a woman currently bearing the name "Ushiromiya", we just don't know which one, and since he was attempting to say "Asumu" but failed, it has to have been some other Ushiromiya.

The obvious candidate is naturally Kyrie, but there are other Ushiromiyas who could have conceivably give birth to him if the father was Rudolf. Namely, Natsuhi, Eva and Rosa. Natsuhi is disqualified because of "Natsuhi oba-san is pure and faithful!" in Ep5. Rosa is disqualified because she would have to have been about 12 at the time, and thus very unlikely to have given birth successfully. Eva would not change anything significantly, because Battler is still younger than George, and thus still behind George on the inheritance ladder.

The possibility of him being Krauss' son or Kinzo's son with Kyrie being his mother remains, though, however slim. The motive of Kyrie acting as a Sumadera agent for the entire time and being involved in a highly complicated long term merger plot to give birth to Kinzo's true heir who would be a Sumadera as well, thwarted by Rudolf's meddling with children in the hospital, is ridiculous, but also not impossible.

But it is not relevant as such because of the headship rules. Structurally, the Ushiromiya Group seems to be a small zaibatsu. To be precise, that means that a holding company owns all of the family's joint assets, with the current 'family head' being the president of the holding company. Branch family businesses, while being independent, have strong financial ties to each other and the holding company at the top, loaning money from it at the very least. Since whoever becomes the new holding company president can be legally determined in whatever fashion the current majority owner wants, including a silly headship contest, Battler can have headship rights in some dormant fashion even if he isn't aware about it. But it is complicated by the existence of the Other Battler, which would muddle any written instructions left over by Kinzo -- if he named "Ushiromiya Battler" as his successor, that bloody Other Battler can pop up at any time and make the issue impossible to determine.

I have so far failed to work out a suitable way to kill the pest.
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Old 2010-06-17, 04:36   Link #11202
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post
And explaining why Battler has to believe is easy. BatterxBeato; a happy ending for both Battler and the Golden Witch Beatrice that Shannon created to take away her feelings for Battler.
Then the only serious fault with your supertheory is that it's not new. Looking up postings by chronotrig which detail it, and the arguments against his theory, which mostly attack the plausibility of Shkanon, will help you flesh it out, and maybe you'll get something complete in the end.
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Old 2010-06-17, 04:41   Link #11203
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Then the only serious fault with your supertheory is that it's not new. Looking up postings by chronotrig which detail it, and the arguments against his theory, which mostly attack the plausibility of Shkanon, will help you flesh it out, and maybe you'll get something complete in the end.
I know it isn't new. I've been in contact with chronotrig. And he pulled my thoughts into this angle, but by only hinting at it, and not putting anything really solid down. But the only real problem is my reasoning in ep3, and the whole culprit 2#. Which is why I was wondering people's thoughts on that ep.

@Judoh: As cool as that would be to see the adults and servants fighting over which of the grandchildren should become the head. I don't really see any hints of this anywhere, so it looks like an epic dream that won't come true.
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Old 2010-06-17, 04:54   Link #11204
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Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post
@Judoh: As cool as that would be to see the adults and servants fighting over which of the grandchildren should become the head. I don't really see any hints of this anywhere, so it looks like an epic dream that won't come true.
You should really pay attention to George and Hideyoshi's stories. Their stories have tons of hints and I think they're important. One of them is reference to the Romance of the three kingdoms. Which would be an obvious hint since there are also three cousins that could be the potential head. I'm not counting Maria of course.

oh and BTW this would fit in with the rock paper scissors analogy that Bern mentions about Rule Z.

Last edited by Judoh; 2010-06-17 at 05:07.
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Old 2010-06-17, 05:06   Link #11205
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
You should really pay attention to George and Hideyoshi's stories. Their stories have tons of hints and I think they're important. One of them is reference to the Romance of the three kingdoms. Which would be an obvious hint since there are also three cousins that could be the potential head. I'm not counting Maria of course.
I thought that was more about the refrence "Three reeking tanners (are enough to) overcome one Zhuge Liang." which basically means. "Three inferior people can overpower a superior person when they combine their strength." Which is a chinese proverb.
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Old 2010-06-17, 07:22   Link #11206
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post

We have the following reds from Ep4 to sort out for this:
  • Beatrice: "I am the Golden Witch, Beatrice. And I opened this game in order to fight Ushiromiya Kinzo's grandchild Ushiromiya Battler."
  • Battler: "Ushiromiya Battler's mother is Ushiromiya Asumu. My name is Ushiromiya Battler. It was from Ushiromiya Asumu that Ushiromiya Battler was born."
  • It all breaks down when he tries to say "It was from Ushiromiya Asumu that I was born." but he gets to 'Ushiromiya' while still in red.
  • Beatrice: "You are not Ushiromiya Asumu's son."
  • Battler: "Ange is, ...my little sister."

*snip*

The possibility of him being Krauss' son or Kinzo's son with Kyrie being his mother remains, though, however slim.
If Battler was Kinzo's son, he wouldn't be Kinzo's grandson unless his mother is Kinzo's daughter.

Unless these family ties are to be seen in a broader sense, so Kyrie would be considered Kinzo's child simply because she married Rudolf and joined the family. But in that case then Battler would still be Kinzo's grandchild even if he was adopted and we'd have a lot of other possibilities.

That apart you missed to consider the possibility that Kinzo has a secret child (which was mentioned in the story), that child could work as Battler's mother as well. Not like I believe this is the case, but... for completeness sake...
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Old 2010-06-17, 08:24   Link #11207
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
If Battler was Kinzo's son, he wouldn't be Kinzo's grandson unless his mother is Kinzo's daughter.
Which is why that is probably to be discounted as well. The only possibilities remaining for Battler then are being born from Rudolf+Kyrie or Krauss+Kyrie, but nobody else. (He could be born from Krauss+Natsuhi, but then Ange is not his sister in red.) So Kyrie being Battler's mother is to be considered proven even if episodes past 4 are ignored, and definitely proven if we have the first 5.

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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
That apart you missed to consider the possibility that Kinzo has a secret child (which was mentioned in the story), that child could work as Battler's mother as well. Not like I believe this is the case, but... for completeness sake...
There is a very, very slim possibility that Battler is the child of Beatrice-2, because Beatrice-2 is the only listed character who could conceivably be Kinzo's child and fit other restrictions. This only works if Beatrice-2 did not actually die when Rosa saw her die, and survived for at least a year since that date, and if Rudolf was his father anyway (Ange being his sister, again).

That time window exists, but it would not be very relevant unless Kinzo declared that only Beatrice-2 and her descendants are to receive any inheritance -- if Beatrice-2 was treated like everyone else, she is only higher on the inheritance ladder than Rosa, as Krauss and Eva were born earlier.
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Old 2010-06-17, 08:55   Link #11208
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On MO and murder methods, we have several, arguably:

Face Smashing: This is done in FT ep1, and for most of the deaths in ep4. We haven't, to my knowledge, ever seen a weapon or device capable of being so precise (remember, one of the things that bothers Battler in ep4 is the consistency of the wounds). Battler theorizes a shotgun or magnum or some other form of firearm. I've always thought it might be a blunt object. If I had to guess, however, the "face smashing thing," whatever it is, is not used until after the victims are dead.

Shooting: Several people have simple wounds to the chest or head, notably in ep2 and ep3. These are often staked, but the most plausible explanation is they were shot with a gun and staked later. I'm not convinced the Winchesters are the shooting weapon (except perhaps at the end of ep1 and Hideyoshi/Rudolf/Kyrie in ep3). The existence of a handgun, probably in a single person's possession, always struck me as more likely. This is very likely the weapon that killed Nanjo, which might suggest it belongs to Rudolf, Kyrie, or Hideyoshi. Unless it belonged to Nanjo himself, and was taken from him.

Strangling: This method appears only in ep3. It's improvised in both cases, once with bare hands (Maria) and once with some kind of long thin object (Krauss and Natsuhi). I'd guess an electrical cord or wire, which are sure to be around. Given the haphazard nature of these attacks, I don't think they were premeditated. They may even be self-defense.

Cutting: Stomachs and necks in ep2, necks in ep5, and people were beheaded in ep6. A cutting device, probably larger than a simple knife, does exist on the island: the cleaver. However, it's intriguing to posit that, ep6 aside (and possibly ep2 Kumasawa/Nanjo), these deaths may have been faked, and the true cause of death was something else. Something like...

Poison: Maria's body is unharmed in ep4, but Battler suspects poison. Poison, an overdose, or a sedative-and-mutilate method seems both plausible and effective. When you think on it, the stakings to the knee, thigh, etc. in ep2 make no sense. No one would die from that. Yet if there are no other marks on the body, how would they die? Poison or drugs could do it, and there's no way even Dr. Nanjo can manage a toxicology analysis. They'd just have to trust the wounds they see.
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Old 2010-06-17, 10:07   Link #11209
Raiza Sunozaki
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Spoiler for Long quote is long.:
Which is why I only ever work under the theory that there is only one Battler. To me, adding another one in only ridiculously complicates things, and personally, I have never seen any proof for it which seems reasonable, or cannot be interpreted another way to ignore the existence of another Battler.
For me, names are possessed solely by the person we are introduced to as possessing them. So Kanon is Kanon, Kinzo is Kinzo, Battler is Battler... you get the idea. So far, I'm fairly confident there's no scenario where people must "trade names" to get around the red that can't be explained in a way where you don't have to.
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Old 2010-06-17, 10:11   Link #11210
Oliver
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I'm not convinced the Winchesters are the shooting weapon (except perhaps at the end of ep1 and Hideyoshi/Rudolf/Kyrie in ep3). The existence of a handgun, probably in a single person's possession, always struck me as more likely. This is very likely the weapon that killed Nanjo, which might suggest it belongs to Rudolf, Kyrie, or Hideyoshi. Unless it belonged to Nanjo himself, and was taken from him.
There are certain limits on that. In particular, Rudolf, Kyrie, Battler, Eva, Hideyoshi, George, Rosa and Maria arrive on the plane and have to pass an inspection to do so, which includes a metal detector (specially mentioned, even) and presumably includes a baggage scan, though, not a baggage search. As possession of a handgun is illegal in Japan, getting caught with it would be a serious problem, so I expect the risk was not taken in this case. There is a certain chance that someone could have visited Niijima previously by boat, to arrange for a handgun to be there already, and pick it up after leaving the plane and before going on the boat to Rokkenjima, but the time window for that is narrow, and only Kyrie has any hints to suggest she may have done so (the Niijima boat ticket in her pocket in Ep3).

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Poison or drugs could do it, and there's no way even Dr. Nanjo can manage a toxicology analysis. They'd just have to trust the wounds they see.
There's no way anyone can manage a full toxicology analysis without a fully equipped lab, but, it is possible for more or less anyone with many poisons, those that do not decompose in the body quickly enough. The method forensic toxicology started with involved extracting stomach contents as soon as possible and treating lab animals with it. Up until the Marie LaFarge case era, that was essentially the only method they had. This remained the case for plant alkaloids all the way into XX century up until chromatography became practical. Those seagulls would sure come in handy at this point.

Determining whether wounds were inflicted before or after death may also not require a lab.

Not that Nanjo can be expected to be qualified in either, though.
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Old 2010-06-17, 10:15   Link #11211
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Originally Posted by Raiza Sunozaki View Post
Which is why I only ever work under the theory that there is only one Battler. To me, adding another one in only ridiculously complicates things, and personally, I have never seen any proof for it which seems reasonable, or cannot be interpreted another way to ignore the existence of another Battler.
For me, names are possessed solely by the person we are introduced to as possessing them. So Kanon is Kanon, Kinzo is Kinzo, Battler is Battler... you get the idea. So far, I'm fairly confident there's no scenario where people must "trade names" to get around the red that can't be explained in a way where you don't have to.
Unfortunately that other guy seems to exist in red. It was from Ushiromiya Asumu that Ushiromiya Battler was born and This Battler definitely was not. Until we find an effective way to deny him, he'll be poisoning the formal context forever.
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Old 2010-06-17, 10:46   Link #11212
Raiza Sunozaki
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Unfortunately that other guy seems to exist in red. It was from Ushiromiya Asumu that Ushiromiya Battler was born and This Battler definitely was not. Until we find an effective way to deny him, he'll be poisoning the formal context forever.
But this is contradictory. Beato is able to say that it was from Ushiromiya Asumu that Ushiromiya Battler was born, but Battler, when repeating the exact same line, cannot.
Well, going along with the Battler Double Theory, how about this? Kinzo, aware that Rudolf had impregnated and married Asumu, decided on Battler's name before his birth. However, he was unaware of the second preganancy with Kyrie. At the time of the birthing, Battler was born from Asumu, but the child was weak and died shortly after birth. For Reason B, Rudolf then replaced Asumu's child with Kyrie's, telling Kyrie that her child had suffered a miscarriage, and named her child, now in Asumu's care, Battler.
This way, there were two Ushiromiya Battler to come into the world, however, only one at the time of the gameboard.
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Old 2010-06-17, 10:57   Link #11213
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Originally Posted by Raiza Sunozaki View Post
But this is contradictory. Beato is able to say that it was from Ushiromiya Asumu that Ushiromiya Battler was born, but Battler, when repeating the exact same line, cannot.
Well, going along with the Battler Double Theory, how about this? Kinzo, aware that Rudolf had impregnated and married Asumu, decided on Battler's name before his birth. However, he was unaware of the second preganancy with Kyrie. At the time of the birthing, Battler was born from Asumu, but the child was weak and died shortly after birth. For Reason B, Rudolf then replaced Asumu's child with Kyrie's, telling Kyrie that her child had suffered a miscarriage, and named her child, now in Asumu's care, Battler.
This way, there were two Ushiromiya Battler to come into the world, however, only one at the time of the gameboard.
I'm pretty sure that Battler repeated that one. The one he couldn't say was the one right afterwards. "It was from Ushiromiya Asumu that I was born."
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Time ran out for the people on the island. All of them are dead. When the seagulls cry none shall be left alive. Sleep forever in a rest you will never be awakened from my beloved Beatrice. Persona: Project Mirror. http://persona-project-mirror.webs.com/ Check it out if you like the Persona series.
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Old 2010-06-17, 11:01   Link #11214
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Originally Posted by Raiza Sunozaki View Post
Kinzo, aware that Rudolf had impregnated and married Asumu, decided on Battler's name before his birth. However, he was unaware of the second preganancy with Kyrie. At the time of the birthing, Battler was born from Asumu, but the child was weak and died shortly after birth. For Reason B, Rudolf then replaced Asumu's child with Kyrie's, telling Kyrie that her child had suffered a miscarriage, and named her child, now in Asumu's care, Battler.
This way, there were two Ushiromiya Battler to come into the world, however, only one at the time of the gameboard.
Oh, I like this. Very practical.

As... interesting as it would be for the Other Battler to be, say, Jessica, or the Child From 19 Years Ago, I kind of feel like neither of those are actually true

And I definitely don't want to envision some kind of Kyrie + Krauss Sumadera conspiracy theory... it just doesn't seem in line with what we know about Kyrie. Yeah, she's capable of being jealous to the point of preparing herself to kill her rival, but I doubt she'd get involved with her Object of Affection's brother either for revenge or family reasons (she doesn't seem to think much of her obligation to them, if Kasumi is anything to go by...)
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Old 2010-06-17, 11:04   Link #11215
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Raiza Sunozaki View Post
But this is contradictory. Beato is able to say that it was from Ushiromiya Asumu that Ushiromiya Battler was born, but Battler, when repeating the exact same line, cannot.
He is choking on "I" rather than "Ushiromiya Battler". In fact, the line "It was from Ushiromiya Asumu that Ushiromiya Battler was born." is said in red by Battler, not Beatrice. It is the line "It is from Ushiromiya Asumu that I was born" that cannot be said in red by him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Raiza Sunozaki View Post
Kinzo, aware that Rudolf had impregnated and married Asumu, decided on Battler's name before his birth. However, he was unaware of the second preganancy with Kyrie. At the time of the birthing, Battler was born from Asumu, but the child was weak and died shortly after birth. For Reason B, Rudolf then replaced Asumu's child with Kyrie's, telling Kyrie that her child had suffered a miscarriage, and named her child, now in Asumu's care, Battler.
This way, there were two Ushiromiya Battler to come into the world, however, only one at the time of the gameboard.
This is highly plausible indeed, and is generally what most people assume since the Other Battler never actually shows up in a discernible bodily presence.

However, the problem with it is that it does not actually effectively deny the Other Battler. We have no solid hints to conclude that this is what in fact happened, (at least I don't know of any) and in this case it may not have, so the Other Battler might have somehow survived. What we need is to find a good reason why he necessarily does not exist anymore, or, failing that, exists as a known quantity somewhere as far away from the board as possible.
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Old 2010-06-17, 11:18   Link #11216
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Determining whether wounds were inflicted before or after death may also not require a lab.

Not that Nanjo can be expected to be qualified in either, though.
Even if Nanjo's credibility were not in question due to unrelated incidents (which it is), he's so blitheringly incompetent as a physician that I can't trust any diagnosis of his that isn't backed up by red. In which case he was probably correct by coincidence.

I don't know if ryukishi just doesn't know much about medical practice, or if the goal is to write Nanjo exactly like an incompetent and poorly-researched mystery novel doctor. Either way, his practice and manner are absurdly improper, especially with respect to the two living patients he's had in the games.

Maybe I'm alone in this, but I always kind of got the sense from Nanjo Jr. that he was pretty bitter toward his dad, and not just because he got killed. It could be that the payoff money (which Jr. had the moral fortitude to refuse) convinced him his father was up to something crooked. But maybe he just was glad his dad wasn't around anymore to screw up the family practice.

Would you trust him to be your doctor?
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Old 2010-06-17, 11:23   Link #11217
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
He is choking on "I" rather than "Ushiromiya Battler". In fact, the line "It was from Ushiromiya Asumu that Ushiromiya Battler was born." is said in red by Battler, not Beatrice. It is the line "It is from Ushiromiya Asumu that I was born" that cannot be said in red by him.



This is highly plausible indeed, and is generally what most people assume since the Other Battler never actually shows up in a discernible bodily presence.

However, the problem with it is that it does not actually effectively deny the Other Battler. We have no solid hints to conclude that this is what in fact happened, (at least I don't know of any) and in this case it may not have, so the Other Battler might have somehow survived. What we need is to find a good reason why he necessarily does not exist anymore, or, failing that, exists as a known quantity somewhere as far away from the board as possible.
Do we even know that the "baby from 19 years ago" is even the second Battler mentioned by Beatrice in Episode 4? I do not recall that relation being made explicitly in the game.
Of course, it does make sense, but I'm thinking it's almost... too easy. I don't know, I immediately thought Battler II when Natsuhi received the phone call, but here's the thing:

Natsuhi, upon picking up the line in Episode 5, comments on how the voice sounded like it could be a female's. This leads me to think of Jessica, as she is sort of the "tomboy." I don't think it was Battler's, simply because he is too masculine.

We also know this, though:
  • Battler took "questionable drugs" as a child (this is mentioned in the beginning of Episode 1). Probably enhanced his testosterone production, so it's unlikely that the real Battler (Battler I) made the call.
  • It was indeed a phone call, so a voice could be altered by the speaker in order to throw off Natsuhi. However, the frequency of the pitch (how high or low the voice sounded) cannot be outside the vocal limit for the character.
  • Natsuhi and Jessica never really got along.

Now, if we continue to assume that Battler II is his own entity (and not a codename for another character) then I guess it could work... after all, we know almost nothing about him. But I am suspicious about Jessica as well; she was on the island with Natsuhi, and nowhere is it explicitly stated that the first phone call (before the game board begins) was an "outside call."

I haven't played Episode 6, though, so maybe my reasoning is wrong.
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Old 2010-06-17, 12:20   Link #11218
Laserworm
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Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: On Rokkenjima (I'm the 19th person)
Age: 23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
*snip*
The mothers day TIP seems to suggest that Jessica does care for her mother.
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Time ran out for the people on the island. All of them are dead. When the seagulls cry none shall be left alive. Sleep forever in a rest you will never be awakened from my beloved Beatrice. Persona: Project Mirror. http://persona-project-mirror.webs.com/ Check it out if you like the Persona series.
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Old 2010-06-17, 12:57   Link #11219
Jan-Poo
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Unfortunately that other guy seems to exist in red. It was from Ushiromiya Asumu that Ushiromiya Battler was born and This Battler definitely was not. Until we find an effective way to deny him, he'll be poisoning the formal context forever.
There is actually a way to get around this.

There is not a 100% correspondence between a metacharacter and the original it is based upon. For the most part any red that can be stated for one can be stated for the other but... MetaBattler was not born from Asumu, he was born from the author that created him.

This could explain why MetaAnge (which already knew the difference between herself and the real world self) seemed to know already how Beatrice was planning to deny MetaBattler's existence.

However we know there's some secret about Battler's birth, so this theory is not very likely.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
There is a very, very slim possibility that Battler is the child of Beatrice-2, because Beatrice-2 is the only listed character who could conceivably be Kinzo's child and fit other restrictions. This only works if Beatrice-2 did not actually die when Rosa saw her die, and survived for at least a year since that date, and if Rudolf was his father anyway (Ange being his sister, again).
If Battler is Beatrice2's son it's a lot more probable that he was born one year before the official date.

According to what Shannon and Kanon said in EP6 we can conclude that a person who's age is 19 years exist. And that person can only be Beatrice or Battler.

Granted that I think it's a lot more probable that the child from 19 years before is Beatrice, since there is a chance that Battler might be one year older, then it's easier to explain this way how he can be Beatrice2's son.
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Old 2010-06-17, 13:05   Link #11220
Renall
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Join Date: May 2009
Battler is Beatrice. When Bern said Beato wasn't just one woman, she was referring to the woman part!
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Battler Solves The Logic Error
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