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Old 2010-06-24, 08:37   Link #11541
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
You say that like Gohda would ever notice anything.
Considering that his care about his cooking and being praised for it appears to be an overriding concern... I vote he would.

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In ep2, though, Rosa starts going pretty nuts. I think the text covers this up with the Rosa/Maria relationship, but she's definitely starting to wear down and become paranoid. She eventually kicks Battler out, even though he's been with her the entire time. That's not rational, unless you think there's something really strange going on. A fake death plot you were made aware of the night before that's turned into real murders you think are going to be blamed on you probably qualifies as"something strange."
Additionally, even though Kanon's body is never actually located, Rosa starts off by being very insistent about pinning everything on Kanon, and then just quietly drops it.
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Old 2010-06-24, 09:09   Link #11542
Verg Avesta
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Considering that his care about his cooking and being praised for it appears to be an overriding concern... I vote he would.
But in the end, it's still Kinzo in the freezer.

Gohda wouldn't probably put it past Master.

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Additionally, even though Kanon's body is never actually located, Rosa starts off by being very insistent about pinning everything on Kanon, and then just quietly drops it.
To be honest, it might actually be that it's in Episode 2 that the things go most wrong with whatever the "original" plan is. After all, someone suddenly jumps in and starts acting as the witch, mocking the survivors.
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Old 2010-06-24, 09:25   Link #11543
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Verg Avesta View Post
But in the end, it's still Kinzo in the freezer.

Gohda wouldn't probably put it past Master.
Since it is impossible to put anything past Kinzo in this manner, Kinzo is completely legendary and has never existed in the first place.

No, seriously, we're assuming godlike powers in this man by now. If there really is no limit, he's no different from a witch.

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Originally Posted by Verg Avesta View Post
To be honest, it might actually be that it's in Episode 2 that the things go most wrong with whatever the "original" plan is. After all, someone suddenly jumps in and starts acting as the witch, mocking the survivors.
Actually, there's little evidence that the note in the VIP room actually existed (we get it in the tips but it is never actually found or read as far as I remember) and similarly, George never shows the letter he just read to anybody, it simply vanishes...
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Old 2010-06-24, 09:49   Link #11544
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Originally Posted by Leafsnail View Post
How could there be fake murders in most of the games anyway? It's pretty difficult to survive having half your head blown off or your face smashed in... and Beatrice said that, for the first episode, No corpses were misidentified, meaning that there can't have been any dummy corpses in there. Similarly, in episode 3 and episode 5, the deaths of the first twilight victims were confirmed...
Shannon and Krauss corpses were identified.
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Old 2010-06-24, 10:39   Link #11545
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Originally Posted by Verg Avesta View Post
To be honest, it might actually be that it's in Episode 2 that the things go most wrong with whatever the "original" plan is. After all, someone suddenly jumps in and starts acting as the witch, mocking the survivors.
I always sort of felt that ep2 was the one where things went more or less correctly, murders aside. There's a very consistent First Twilight group, the presence of a "mysterious" 18th person resembling Beatrice, and a high possibility that several people are not aware of the deaths being real.
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Old 2010-06-24, 10:55   Link #11546
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I always sort of felt that ep2 was the one where things went more or less correctly, murders aside. There's a very consistent First Twilight group, the presence of a "mysterious" 18th person resembling Beatrice, and a high possibility that several people are not aware of the deaths being real.
Abstract thought. Could it be, that Rosa, being aware of the prank plan, is trying to pin things on Kanon because he was the one assigned the role of Beatrice in this scenario, that is, the one that sends the letters, and she just assumed he went overboard and started killing people for real?...
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Old 2010-06-24, 11:06   Link #11547
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I don't know. But if you look at it, the fake deaths plan - if indeed we assume the First Twilight is initially faked each time or intended to be such - is thrown together somewhat haphazardly at the last minute each night. It definitely goes better in some episodes than others; in ep1 and ep5 it's very crudely thrown together in an odd location (the shed, the cousins' room), but in ep2 (the chapel) and ep3 (the closed room circuit) it's elaborately arranged. Ep2-3 also have a more consistent grouping of "victim" selections - the parents, or the servants.

Rosa was probably picked to be the "survivor" in ep2 as the odd parent out, since she isn't married and they needed only six victims. I have very little doubt that, if the FT is generally faked, "Beatrice" told everyone about it, they agreed, the plan was put into place, and Rosa went off to do her part fully aware of the script.

Then the script started not working right. I don't doubt, in many ways, that Rosa feared she was being framed. That's why she's acting so suspicious. She has very few opportunities to actually be the culprit.
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Old 2010-06-24, 11:44   Link #11548
Oliver
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Rosa was probably picked to be the "survivor" in ep2 as the odd parent out, since she isn't married and they needed only six victims. I have very little doubt that, if the FT is generally faked, "Beatrice" told everyone about it, they agreed, the plan was put into place, and Rosa went off to do her part fully aware of the script.
That leaves the bigger problem of figuring out why the fake first twilight happens at all and why is it agreed to. While innocent and not so innocent pranks in this fashion do exist, the atmosphere it starts from isn't right for an innocent prank.

Imagine you're Beatrice. Surely, if you have a powerful enough lever, like the gold, you may be able to convince people to participate willingly, but why exactly do you want it to happen? If you cannot explain that to people in a way they will understand and accept, they are very likely to think it's all a complicated setup to manoeuvre them into a vulnerable position, these people are all old enough to know that the most plentiful source of free cheese is by far the mousetrap.

In fact, suppose a "Beatrice" appears before the family in person, drops a stack of gold on the table and says "I want you to jump just so high, not too high, not too low, exactly that." Even if those present are sure the gold is real and there's more of it, the recognition that there's no reason for them to believe the "Beatrice" will hold up her end of the bargain will stop them and require believable explanations why "Beatrice" wants it to happen. They will want to know whether the end result of "Beatrice" reaching her goal will not hurt them more than her compensation can cover.

If, in case of an Ep5-style setup, where the fake First Twilight apparently happens as a method of collectively getting back at Krauss and Natsuhi for structurally very similar treatment, the motivation is understandable, in case of Ep2 in particular the motivation is not very clear. While I previously wrote up a theory that would explain Ep2's motivation alone, it obviously doesn't work with Ep1 or Ep3.
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Old 2010-06-24, 12:29   Link #11549
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Now I'm not sure which possibility to pick! The ring being buried sounds quite possible -- forging Kinzo's handwriting is hard, since the children are obviously very familiar with it, and would create solid physical evidence that can be used against Kinzo Phantom Conspiracy, so denying yourself the possibility doesn't change anything.
I'm not aware of any statements saying the letters were written in Kinzo's handwriting. Or anyone's for that matter. If we knew whose handwriting it was finding out who is behind this whole thing would just be too easy, and that's not something you want in a thinking game like Umineko.

A few of the adults seem to think it was a prank by Kinzo though. Although I don't get why they'd deny Nanjo's statement that only Kinzo could have made the seal if that's what they think.


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I don't doubt, in many ways, that Rosa feared she was being framed. That's why she's acting so suspicious. She has very few opportunities to actually be the culprit.
Something I noticed by messing with the character portraits in the TIPS is that by the second twilight the parent (or grandparent in Kinzo's case) who is framed is usually surrounded by dead portraits. Kanon's portrait just coincidentally pins Rosa's, and Krauss, Eva and Hideyoshi's portraits do the same with Natsuhi.

If you made the second twilight in episode 6 something like Hideyoshi and George or Nanjo and Kinzo Rudolf's portrait would be surrounded no matter who you kill after that. Although that may just be a coincidence I thought I might have finally found a pattern.
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Old 2010-06-24, 13:06   Link #11550
Oliver
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I'm not aware of any statements saying the letters were written in Kinzo's handwriting. Or anyone's for that matter. If we knew whose handwriting it was finding out who is behind this whole thing would just be too easy, and that's not something you want in a thinking game like Umineko.
There were no such statements. I was suggesting that it is possible to write a letter signed "Kinzo" referring to current events, and probably chastising all of the siblings in bulk including Krauss, put it in Kinzo's envelope and seal it with Kinzo's seal, and present it at the conference, which would strengthen the illusion that he is still alive a lot. The only reason not to do that is that it may create physical evidence against the conspiracy and that the handwriting can be compared to extant samples of Kinzo's hand, of which there must be a lot off the island.
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Old 2010-06-24, 13:16   Link #11551
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That leaves the bigger problem of figuring out why the fake first twilight happens at all and why is it agreed to. While innocent and not so innocent pranks in this fashion do exist, the atmosphere it starts from isn't right for an innocent prank.

Imagine you're Beatrice. Surely, if you have a powerful enough lever, like the gold, you may be able to convince people to participate willingly, but why exactly do you want it to happen? If you cannot explain that to people in a way they will understand and accept, they are very likely to think it's all a complicated setup to manoeuvre them into a vulnerable position, these people are all old enough to know that the most plentiful source of free cheese is by far the mousetrap.
"I am the executor of your father's/grandfather's/employer's will. He has asked that a certain set of circumstances be established in order to transfer headship of the family to whichever of the grandchildren figures [something] out. In exchange, you will all be immediately compensated with gold/with payout letters/etc. You may refuse to play along, but Kinzo's will has explicitly stated that anyone who does so, or who disrupts the headship transfer, gains nothing. I possess the physical will, the head's ring, and some of the gold as proof of what I am saying."
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Old 2010-06-24, 13:36   Link #11552
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"I am the executor of your father's/grandfather's/employer's will. He has asked that a certain set of circumstances be established in order to transfer headship of the family to whichever of the grandchildren figures [something] out. In exchange, you will all be immediately compensated with gold/with payout letters/etc. You may refuse to play along, but Kinzo's will has explicitly stated that anyone who does so, or who disrupts the headship transfer, gains nothing. I possess the physical will, the head's ring, and some of the gold as proof of what I am saying."
Close, but not it yet, let's hammer on it until it's provable. Counterarguments:
  • The will is never shown to actually exist, even though we theorised it for Ep4 in particular and presume it exists. No character says they saw the will, heard that it was actually written, or says they signed it as a witness, with the sole exception of Ep2, where the will is alleged to be written right now, which we know is a lie. Without a written will, it doesn't work. Are there any direct clues pointing to the document existing?
  • The head ring, as far as we know, is either under Natsuhi's control or buried with the body, unless anyone can present a better theory of what happens to the body. In the first case, Natsuhi's cooperation is required and the plan is against her interest, (and for the same reason Natsuhi cannot be that Beatrice) in the second case, Beatrice is admitting to graverobbing when she is addressing any member of the Kinzo Phantom Conspiracy, which breaks all cases where more than one of them is a victim.
  • Since the ring can not always be a sure sign of the authenticity of a will because of the above, and the gold can just be a golden shell filled with mercury until closely examined, (not too expensive at all, but to see that you need at least a bucket of water and some knowledge of ancient physics) how would the authenticity of the will be assured otherwise?
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Old 2010-06-24, 14:09   Link #11553
Kaisos Erranon
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Are there any direct clues pointing to the document existing?
Shannon supposedly wrote Kinzo's will for him. Shannon is most likely Beatrice. All the letters, message bottles, etc. are written in Beatrice's handwriting.

What if the Rokkenjima Serial Murders themselves were Kinzo's will? Didn't he want to revive Beatrice, after all?
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Old 2010-06-24, 14:23   Link #11554
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The will is never shown to actually exist, even though we theorised it for Ep4 in particular and presume it exists. No character says they saw the will, heard that it was actually written, or says they signed it as a witness, with the sole exception of Ep2, where the will is alleged to be written right now, which we know is a lie. Without a written will, it doesn't work. Are there any direct clues pointing to the document existing
The scene in ep2 is the evidence that a will may exist. The consistency of the fakery and existence of apparent pre-prepared props is also evidence that it may be part of a scheme meditated on by Kinzo himself.
Quote:
The head ring, as far as we know, is either under Natsuhi's control or buried with the body, unless anyone can present a better theory of what happens to the body. In the first case, Natsuhi's cooperation is required and the plan is against her interest, (and for the same reason Natsuhi cannot be that Beatrice) in the second case, Beatrice is admitting to graverobbing when she is addressing any member of the Kinzo Phantom Conspiracy, which breaks all cases where more than one of them is a victim.
We don't know where the ring is, but even if "Beatrice" dug it up, so what? If she has an actual legitimate will stating what Kinzo wanted, then what the Kinzo Conspiracy wants to prove is irrelevant. She may well have pretended to be in on the plan, let them hide the ring however they hid it, then went and took it herself. She has legal authority to do so; Kinzo's legally executed will trumps a highly illegal fraud. Members of the conspiracy are smart enough to recognize this, and to realize that if everyone acknowledges Kinzo's death without questioning what became of him, the problems inherent in the fraud go away quietly.
Quote:
Since the ring can not always be a sure sign of the authenticity of a will because of the above, and the gold can just be a golden shell filled with mercury until closely examined, (not too expensive at all, but to see that you need at least a bucket of water and some knowledge of ancient physics) how would the authenticity of the will be assured otherwise?
It's not one thing but some or all of those things together. If Kinzo left a written will that's authentic, that alone would stifle a lot of objections. As to whether they trust "Beatrice," she is clearly very convincing (even Kyrie had to concede in ep2, though we're never shown what she conceded other than the - probably joking - acknowledgement that Beatrice was the witch). Their situation is desperate enough that they do not have the time or energy to look a gift horse in the mouth. Besides, if it's fake, they have her arrested as soon as the typhoon lifts.
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Old 2010-06-24, 15:08   Link #11555
Oliver
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What if the Rokkenjima Serial Murders themselves were Kinzo's will? Didn't he want to revive Beatrice, after all?
Just what kind of person can you imagine that would execute that one? A Cyberman?... Sure, people like this exist, I just doubt any of the people depicted so far would be quite that loyal in the face of a demand so unreasonable, or believe in Kinzo's magic that deeply -- it would show.

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The scene in ep2 is the evidence that a will may exist.
I'm not sure about that one, which is why I mentioned it specifically. Shannon and Genji are said to be witnessing and possibly writing down Kinzo's will right now. That does not actually imply a will existed previously, let alone that they were involved with such a will. It's definitely evidence that it's natural for a will to exist, nobody's surprised Kinzo's writing a will when everybody's fearing for their lives and there's a murderer on the loose, but it's always natural for a will to exist with a rich man of 80 or more years of age.

I can't question that Kinzo's 'will' may have existed, that is, a desire for certain events to happen in a certain way, which he may have communicated to others, as many things point to this. But I don't see any clear evidence of a written document having legal power existing before the start of the game -- and it would be required for this explanation to work. Until we can find it that will be the weakest spot.

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We don't know where the ring is, but even if "Beatrice" dug it up, so what? If she has an actual legitimate will stating what Kinzo wanted, then what the Kinzo Conspiracy wants to prove is irrelevant.
There's another problem with any kind of written document by itself. Namely, the Ep5 problem of Kinzo's Corpse -- it is very hard to prove that a written document is genuine within the confines of the island, and the stakes are very high. Battler had to pull a golden truth to prove that, which characters obviously can't do.

A written will becomes very believable if it is in Kinzo's own handwriting which everyone is familiar with, signed by multiple witnesses, some of which are present and vouch for their signatures, and a witness that isn't present would be very nice too since it would reduce the chance that the will is written under duress. It solidifies completely if the document also comes with the ring and a bar of gold or two -- that becomes overwhelming evidence.

But there is a host of seven characters on the board which should be aware that the ring did not initially come with the document, and can for this reason disbelieve it's authenticity. Are they among the witnesses that signed the will? Why did they not tell Krauss and Natsuhi about the will? If they did, much of the Ep5 goes down the drain as irreconcilable.

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It's not one thing but some or all of those things together.
Which is why I'm doubting them all in turn, as only the sum works reliably in all cases.
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Old 2010-06-24, 15:35   Link #11556
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You are discounting the possibility that Kinzo scenes shown on the board can, in some cases, theoretically be true but temporally displaced. For instance, the "Kinzo decides to have Shannon and Genji attest to his will" scene could well have really happened, just not on October 4th 1986. That scene always felt "off" to me, like the Kinzo scene with Natsuhi in ep1. Just as that scene had a different meaning, so too could the ep2 scene.

I'm not saying a will does exist, but there's evidence that an oral or written will is known to Shannon and Genji, if not more people.
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Old 2010-06-24, 16:02   Link #11557
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This has already been postulated before, but since we're going down this path again, I think it's quite relevant.

What if Kinzo was the one Battler sinned against, and the goal of the will was to break the 'unbeliever' and have him believe in 'magic?' And so we have a not-so-funny prank against Battler that everyone is compelled to commit. The will was written up to trigger whenever he came back to the island and was left in the hands of, say, maybe Genji, Shannon and Kanon to carry out all his specific wishes. And the other servants have already been told well before and are in the know when the game starts.

I mean, Beatrice did say that her goal was to make Battler acknowledge his sin, and also to acknowledge that she exists as a witch. Wasn't it also about making him acknowledge magic as well?
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Old 2010-06-24, 16:05   Link #11558
Oliver
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You are discounting the possibility that Kinzo scenes shown on the board can, in some cases, theoretically be true but temporally displaced. For instance, the "Kinzo decides to have Shannon and Genji attest to his will" scene could well have really happened, just not on October 4th 1986. That scene always felt "off" to me, like the Kinzo scene with Natsuhi in ep1. Just as that scene had a different meaning, so too could the ep2 scene.

I'm not saying a will does exist, but there's evidence that an oral or written will is known to Shannon and Genji, if not more people.
It's not that I'm discounting it, but, that written will is a movable object. Seeing as how few of those are around, getting some hint that anyone actually saw a document would be what would allow a written will to be a bulletproof explanation that may even let us track down Beatrice for good.

And since we're talking about written wills, here's some research results.

Apparently, most of the inheritance law is very recent compared to the rest of civil law in Japan, having been fully revised during the occupation period with heavy American influence. The most important changes included equal rights for inheritors regardless of gender.

As I've already written before, during 1986, the inheritance tax in Japan was 70% for values above 300 million yen or so. It is deductible based on a formula depending on the number of heirs, but in case of Kinzo, the deduction would not result in significant changes. The tax apparently applies both to property and to money, and depends on the valuation of real property. It must be paid before any property can be sold, which makes it physically impossible to pay in this case. I am not sure if this includes shares in a holding company, which is basically the only way the Ushiromiyas can keep any money in case of legally distributed inheritance anyway (that is, by being a zaibatsu) but I expect that the only sure way to get them anywhere is by transferring them while Kinzo is still alive.

The law describes reserved portions -- half of all the inheritance is to be distributed among the first rank claimants (children, lineal descendants) who are, apparently, all treated equally together with their spouses. If none of those are available, a third is reserved to be distributed to lineal ascendants. Everything above that may be willed freely without restrictions on whom it may be willed to. Interestingly, the law recognises that legally adopted children may have inheritance rights from their real parents as well. In case of a limited liability holding company, this apparently can be sidestepped and was the practical way for most of the XX century.

Two forms of will are recognised by the law, a holographic document and a notarized document. The holographic will must be written entirely by the testator in their own hand, with the date, name, and a personal seal, no witnesses are apparently required by law in this case. The will may be valid if the seal is not affixed, but this requires a civil court decision. The notarized will is written by notary public with dictation from the testator before two or more witnesses.


What this translates into is a few interesting points:
  1. If Genji and Shannon were in any way involved with Kinzo's written will, they are either limited to helping him work out the text before he has to write it out in his own hand all over again anyway or simply can't do it -- even if one of them is somehow a notary public, one more witness is required. Since no witnesses are apparently required for a holographic will, that one should be legal even if he does it alone in secret.
  2. But if I'm getting this right, Kinzo's only practical way to ensure his inheritance is not chewed up by the law and ends up with a specific but currently unknown grandchild is to transfer the Ushiromiya Group (that is, nominally sell the shares in the holding company) to an executor who will then transfer it to someone else in the same manner according to his wishes...

And if such an executor exists, they basically own the Ushiromiya family already, and don't need to prove anything to anyone -- they just need to show documents declaring they own the shares of the holding company and Kinzo's instructions, and anything they say goes. ...BUT, they must stay alive in Ange's world so that Eva owns the Ushiromiya Group afterwards!
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Old 2010-06-24, 16:09   Link #11559
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And if such an executor exists, they basically own the Ushiromiya family already, and don't need to prove anything to anyone -- they just need to show documents declaring they own the shares of the holding company and Kinzo's instructions, and anything they say goes. ...BUT, they must stay alive in Ange's world so that Eva owns the Ushiromiya Group afterwards!
And all the gold in the Golden Land already belongs to this child, who has no use for it...
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Old 2010-06-24, 16:15   Link #11560
Judoh
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Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
This probably very off topic, but I found an occult society that Beatrice 1 and Kinzo may have known of if Ryukishi did any real research. I was wondering what your opinion on it might be. Since it basically fits a lot of what we've been told about Beatrice and Kinzo. it might just be a coincidence in the name.


Hermetic Order of the Golden Dawn


Quote:
The Hermetic Order of the Golden Dawn (or, more commonly, the Golden Dawn) was a magical order active in Great Britain during the late 19th and early 20th centuries, which practiced theurgy and spiritual development. It has been one of the largest single influences on 20th-century Western occultism.[1][2]

Concepts of magic and ritual at the center of contemporary traditions, such as Wicca[3][4] and Thelema, were inspired by the Golden Dawn.

The three founders, William Robert Woodman, William Wynn Westcott, and Samuel Liddell MacGregor Mathers were Freemasons and members of Societas Rosicruciana in Anglia (S.R.I.A.).[5] Westcott appears to have been the initial driving force behind the establishment of the Golden Dawn.

The Golden Dawn system was based on hierarchy and initiation like the Masonic Lodges, however women were admitted on an equal basis with men. The "Golden Dawn" was the first of three Orders, although all three are often collectively referred to as the "Golden Dawn". The First Order taught esoteric philosophy based on the Hermetic Qabalah and personal development through study and awareness of the four Classical Elements as well as the basics of astrology, tarot divination, and geomancy. The Second or "Inner" Order, the Rosae Rubeae et Aureae Crucis (the Ruby Rose and Cross of Gold), taught proper magic, including scrying, astral travel, and alchemy. The Third Order was that of the "Secret Chiefs", who were said to be highly-skilled but no longer incarnate; they supposedly directed the activities of the lower two orders by spirit communication with the Chiefs of the Second Order.
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