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Old 2010-06-28, 17:10   Link #12001
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
It probably doesn't make sense in the same way Maria's death does since it's not compatible with episode 1. But if you don't include episode 1 this seems like a valid first twilight condition for Rosa.
I think the word should be "died" rather than died, then condition actually fits quite smoothly. I.e.: "If Maria fails to receive the First Letter, Rosa is obliged to take an active part in further proceedings."

In particular, if we assume Rosa is Gaap (the logic for which I have described before) she's busy dealing with George in Ep4, and in Ep5, Rosa-Gaap is the one who "kills" the cousins by convincing them to play dead, then "hides the bodies" by rousing them and leaving with them to somewhere where they meet their actual demise.
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Old 2010-06-28, 17:11   Link #12002
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Hm... Also, I think... This is kind of weird and out of left field, but what if 07 wrote EPs 5 and 6 to show us what "can go wrong" for the culprit? I remember one big thing that bugged me when Lambdadelta took over being GM was that the scribbles were crappily drawn (well, not her words exactly, but they weren't skillfully done). Of course, the survivors of the first twilight didn't notice (and Maria is gone so she wouldn't know). But, maybe that's a sign that the culprit is doing the scribbles, but the culprit doesn't fully know them in EPs 5 and 6?

Also, another thought I had was something along the lines of "If Rosa doesn't die WITH Maria, i.e. if Rosa dies and Maria doesn't or they're both alive, then the second twilight becomes possible for two people to die." In EP1, Rosa dies without Maria and a two person 2nd happens. Rosa and Maria are alive EP2 and a two person second twilight happens. Maria and Rosa are the second twilight victims in EP3. EP4, Rosa dies without Maria and a two person twilight happens. EP5, Rosa dies with Maria and a one person second twilight happens. EP6 Both die and a one person second twilight happens.

Maybe somehow a conjunction of Rosa and Maria somehow facilitate a two person second twilight? Maybe this is just a false lead...

I supposed in EP7 or EP8, Maria is going to die (lol Going to died, sorry) first twilight WITHOUT Rosa, and something crazy will happen then. Like GAME BREAKING.
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Old 2010-06-28, 17:30   Link #12003
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Well, in episodes 5 and 6 we had Erika trying to put mayonnaise in ice cream. Now, we will have Berkanstel trying to do the same. I don't see the game as actually being thrown off track, yet. But if Berkanstel knows half as much as she thinks she does then she will turn the game asunder.
I predict Berkanstel will show the people who are faking their deaths. After that is found out then the game should be thrown off track. Or perhaps Berkanstel will have Maria's friend intercepted.
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Old 2010-06-28, 17:32   Link #12004
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Smeckledorf View Post
Well, in episodes 5 and 6 we had Erika trying to put mayonnaise in ice cream. Now, we will have Berkanstel trying to do the same. I don't see the game as actually being thrown off track, yet. But if Berkanstel knows half as much as she thinks she does then she will turn the game asunder.
Notice that the same is actually sure to happen even if Bernkastel is dead wrong about everything she thinks she knows.

The whole network of plans is preciously balanced and isn't a self-adjusting system by far.
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Old 2010-06-28, 17:35   Link #12005
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It is a self-adjusting system, it is called improvisation. The first twilight seems to have no detectable pattern.
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Old 2010-06-28, 17:41   Link #12006
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Smeckledorf View Post
It is a self-adjusting system, it is called improvisation. The first twilight seems to have no detectable pattern.
There's actually two patterns, possibly with very different planners.

Pattern 1: Take whoever happens close by, drugging them. (Ep1, Ep2)
Pattern 2: Convince a group to play dead of their own volition. (Ep3, Ep5)

Ep4 is uncertain because it's unclear what happened there at all.
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Old 2010-06-28, 17:44   Link #12007
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
There's actually two patterns, possibly with very different planners.

Pattern 1: Take whoever happens close by, drugging them. (Ep1, Ep2)
Pattern 2: Convince a group to play dead of their own volition. (Ep3, Ep5)

Ep4 is uncertain because it's unclear what happened there at all.
We have no proof that a whole group volunteers fake being dead. Only one person needs to do it voluntarily in episode 3 and none in episode 5. We also cannot be sure if anyone is just nabbed and drugged in episodes 1 and 2. They could have just as easily volunteered. So, no there is not one pattern to detect how the first twilight is done.
I also don't see how preciously planning equates to nabbing the closest six people and hoping no one else sees you doing it.
I'm just playing devil's advocate because I do think there is a plan but not much of a pattern. The only one who would ever fake their death would be the mastermind and his/her accomplices to giving credence to the epitaph. The rest are drugged. As for how the culprit usually doesn't get 7 or 5, it must be luck.

I think I have 4 pegged. Everyone aside from the children were to assemble in a meeting in which Kinzo would be present. 'Beatrice' reveals that she has found the gold and will show everyone where it is after they help her do something. She sends Gohda and Kumasawa to the children to tell them a story about a witch. She has people fake dead to fool the children and tells them to take a drug to make them seem more dead. Unfortunately, she kills them in their unconscious state. Maria took this drug also, but she overdosed.

Last edited by Smeckledorf; 2010-06-28 at 18:01.
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Old 2010-06-28, 18:00   Link #12008
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Smeckledorf View Post
We have no proof that a whole group volunteers fake being dead. Only one person needs to do it voluntarily in episode 3 and none in episode 5. We also cannot be sure if anyone is just nabbed and drugged in episodes 1 and 2. They could have just as easily volunteered. So, no there is not one pattern to detect how the first twilight is done.
I also don't see how preciously planning equates to nabbing the closest six people and hoping no one else sees you doing it.
Proof, no, probably not. Patterns do look like they are distinct, however.

In Ep1, the FT victims would probably be found in the dining hall, (blood stains nobody paid much attention to) if Eva and Hideyoshi didn't leave, which created a two body hole, filled with Shannon and Gohda.
In Ep2, the FT victims are easiest to kill if you managed to convince them to assemble for a reasonable party and then they all succumb to poison or sleep-inducing tea.
In Ep3, the FT is pretty much impossible to set up without cooperation of the victims.
In Ep5, the only one who could convince the victims to move anywhere is Rosa, (unless someone does it a long time beforehand) and it's quite doubtful Rosa can actually force them to without a gun.
In Ep6, if my spoiler memory serves me right, cooperation is simply described.

Notice that the cases of "clear cooperation" and "likely resistance" actually correspond to different victim groups. Monolithic groups like "servants" or "cousins" are seen in clear or likely cooperation situations.

Mind you, what I was talking about when I said "preciously balanced" is what happens after the first twilight.
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Old 2010-06-28, 18:02   Link #12009
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For my own opinion, I think it would be REALLY evil of 07 to let the first twilight be some kind of improvisation on all counts. That's kind of like saying in a game of chess, you blindfold yourself, shake around the pieces, and called that a game. I personally think of Umineko world like a big clock. In EPs 1-4, 07 showed us how the gears move. However, like in any clock, there are so many gears and so many levels that it becomes unclear what gear is what and the purposes of each gear. What I think is going on in EP5-8 is that 07 is specifically showing us what each gear does by sticking a pole into specific gears in a necessary order to show us the mechanics of the game. Kind of like Higurashi, but on a more random scale than a progressive scale (like, in Higurashi it was "step by step" solution. In this set, it's more like "I'll show you the 1st step. Now the 5th step. Now the 4th. Now the 7th.")

I personally feel that this can't be improv in any way. It would defeat the purpose of calling it a "game," you know?

Again, this is all just my conjecture. I don't know 07 personally so he could be a lot more evil then I give him credit for hahaha.
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Old 2010-06-28, 18:03   Link #12010
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In episode 1, Rudolph knew he was going to 'die' which means he knew he was selected to go. I would say that we cannot be sure whether he cooperated or not.

Roulette is a game. Card games are games. Both incorporate luck. Luck is a part of almost every game. Chess even has luck in it. Predicting your opponent's moves is a measure of luck.

I do agree, though. Taking out six pieces at once makes it hard to tell which ones were important, if any at all. From what I can tell Rudolph, Battler, Maria, and Kanon are all very important pieces.

By the way, cooperation was not described but implied in episode 6. The implication was Battler was still moving around after he had 'died'. However, we cannot be sure because of the logic error that was created.

However, if everyone else was not drugged then there is no way Erika could have done what she did. So, if someone is cooperating do they still need to be drugged?

And before you try to explain the logic error being cleared, that is not necessarily true. Battler was tried like one might be in a court of law. Courts don't judge you to be innocent, they judge you to be guilty or not guilty. Erika failed to prove he was guilty, that was all. Proving you didn't do something is almost a devil's proof.

Last edited by Smeckledorf; 2010-06-28 at 18:15.
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Old 2010-06-28, 18:18   Link #12011
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Originally Posted by Smeckledorf View Post
In episode 1, Rudolph knew he was going to 'die' which means he knew he was selected to go. I would say that we cannot be sure whether he cooperated.
Wait he brings this up again in EP5 (as per Battler's story when he walks back to the cousin's room) but survives first and second twilight...
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Old 2010-06-28, 18:19   Link #12012
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I've already provided an explanation previously for why the fake first twilights are randomized.

http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...ostcount=11133
http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...ostcount=11541

I'll repeat it again though. The mastermind selects accomplices or "subculprits" that form different groups. I chose 3 groups so it fits with the rock paper scissors analogy. Since each group has a different leader in each game most of the other accomplices in those groups are also different in each game. So if for example if Kanon were the leader of the fake death group in episode 3 he'd chose mostly servants. If Eva were in the rekilling group she'd pick Hideyoshi and so on.
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Old 2010-06-28, 18:22   Link #12013
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Wait he brings this up again in EP5 (as per Battler's story when he walks back to the cousin's room) but survives first and second twilight...
What Rudolph said both times were different things. The first time was vague and I believe he specifically said "tonight". In episode 5, he said he needed to tell Battler something about his birth and if he did he might be killed. So, if I remember correctly he used die in the first episode which does not directly mean murdered and in the fifth episode he used killed which would mean he thinks someone is going to murder him.

Judoh, the problem with 3 groups is that there are never 12 or 18 deaths in the first twilight. Don't you think there would be some clashing? I have thought that there is more than one group of culprits before, however deaths are faked so no one murders those people, at least not at first. So, the person who planned the whole faked deaths plot may not even be a murderer, actually if that person is 'Beatrice' then it is highly like he/she is not a murderer.
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Old 2010-06-28, 18:28   Link #12014
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Originally Posted by Smeckledorf View Post
By the way, cooperation was not described but implied in episode 6. The implication was Battler was still moving around after he had 'died'. However, we cannot be sure because of the logic error that was created.
It's still kind of funny that Kyrie would chose to "die" in Krauss's study if she was just going to be drugged. I'd think she'd want to search around a bit.

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Originally Posted by Smeckledorf View Post
Judoh, the problem with 3 groups is that there are never 12 or 18 deaths in the first twilight. Don't you think there would be some clashing?
That is not a problem at all since the people who are in the groups are flexible. Why would there be 18 victims in my theory in the fake first twilight if there are only 6 randomly selected members?
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Old 2010-06-28, 18:30   Link #12015
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It's still kind of funny that Kyrie would chose to "die" in Krauss's study if she was just going to be drugged. I'd think she'd want to search around a bit.
Kyrie's intention may have been to expose Krauss's dealings, either when she woke up or when people broke into the room to "find" her body. It's definitely the sort of place you don't just innocently pick.
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Old 2010-06-28, 18:34   Link #12016
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It's still kind of funny that Kyrie would chose to "die" in Krauss's study if she was just going to be drugged. I'd think she'd want to search around a bit.
I have no idea to the relevance this has to what you quoted me on.

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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
That is not a problem at all since the people who are in the groups are flexible. Why would there be 18 victims in my theory in the fake first twilight if there are only 6 randomly selected members?
If there are 3 groups and one or more group tries to fake a first twilight, there would not be a problem? I guess you are trying to say that one group tries to fake twilights but I still do not see why the groups' feuds would not be brought up when the bodies start piling up.
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Old 2010-06-28, 18:39   Link #12017
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Originally Posted by Smeckledorf View Post
If there are 3 groups and one or more group tries to fake a first twilight, there would not be a problem?
Like I said the group members in FFT (and the members of other groups) are randomly chosen in each game that's why there are different "victims" each time and that's why there is so much noise. So that avoids the problem of who is always involved. See my earlier post.

Last edited by Judoh; 2010-06-28 at 18:50.
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Old 2010-06-28, 18:50   Link #12018
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Originally Posted by Smeckledorf View Post
What Rudolph said both times were different things. The first time was vague and I believe he specifically said "tonight". In episode 5, he said he needed to tell Battler something about his birth and if he did he might be killed. So, if I remember correctly he used die in the first episode which does not directly mean murdered and in the fifth episode he used killed which would mean he thinks someone is going to murder him.
Nope, in EP1 in both English and Japanese, he says "be killed" specifically. Korosareru. The only thing that was vague about it in EP1 was what the talk was about.
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Old 2010-06-28, 18:51   Link #12019
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Kyrie's intention may have been to expose Krauss's dealings, either when she woke up or when people broke into the room to "find" her body. It's definitely the sort of place you don't just innocently pick.
Definitely. You can see her direct and clear-cut way of thinking slice right through Battler's illusion. 8)

But this seems to me that the fake twilight plan didn't stop her own plans. Even someone like Eva seemed to have just acquiesced to the fakery, like in EP6... but Kryie still intends to execute her own plans regarding Krauss, whatever they may be. Like as if she viewed her own plans to be above the need to make the first twilight look good...

For example, there's a chance that if Krauss finds her 'dead' body then he may become suspicious of why she was in there in the first place. It seems like she's willing to risk that to get what she wants.

So maybe Kyrie has plans from outside the family, like others suggested. Like a directive from the Sumaderas? Hmm.... if this is the case then we needed to see more clues from EP1-4...
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Old 2010-06-28, 18:53   Link #12020
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I don't like the random factor of the factions. Ryukishi07 would be saying, 'You want motive? MOTIVE THIS D**K!!! Yeaaaaaa boy!' I also see no need for three groups when two would do just fine. But hey, that is just my opinion.
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