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Old 2010-11-05, 19:14   Link #5081
Leafsnail
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Stupid idea: who's generally the last person off the boat? In other words, under Shkannon... who was the 18th person of Rokkenjima?
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Old 2010-11-05, 19:17   Link #5082
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I'm pretty sure it's...Maria, I think? Either her or Rosa, since they more or less walked off the boat in Family Order.
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Old 2010-11-05, 19:34   Link #5083
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
This is the stupidest attempt at a logical fallacy ever.

"Forgers theorize X" so X isn't true, does not mean "forgers theorize Y", so Y isn't true. I don't know if you know this, but people can theorize things and be correct. Shocking, I know.
I think you're misinterpreting me. I'm saying that the logical form Judoh implied (broken down into predicate logic) of:

∀x believes(forgers,x)⇒x

Doesn't hold in real life, since it leads to those absurdities. So my point is exactly yours that: "People can theorize things and be correct."

Or, more specific to this situation:

"The fact that forgers theorize Erika survived doesn't mean that Erika didn't survive."



Anyways, I think one important point is that if the Red Truths don't apply to Rokkenjima Prime, and you can only rely on the fallible and possibly false clues of white text, than one can't say:

"Erika did not exist on Rokkenjima Prime. This is a fact."

One can only say:

"I don't believe that Erika existed on Rokkenjima Prime. This is my subjective opinion."

You can speculate a truth about Rokkenjima prime, but you can't prove a truth about Rokkenjima prime.
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Old 2010-11-05, 19:50   Link #5084
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Quote:
Originally Posted by einhorn303 View Post
you can speculate a truth about Rokkenjima prime, but you can't prove a truth about Rokkenjima prime.
I never said otherwise.

Well again. Why do I have to prove anything to you? If even witch hunters doubt the speculation of other witch hunters on this issue I can conclude it's doubtful she ever did exist on Rokkenjima prime. If I want. And there are no problems with either side. The reason the rest of your argument is fallacious is because the rest of your examples are canon. While Erika's status can be credibly questioned due to statements in the story. They are irrelevant to this issue.
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Old 2010-11-05, 19:51   Link #5085
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Quote:
Anyways, I think one important point is that if the Red Truths don't apply to Rokkenjima Prime
I'm going to stop you right there, because I've NEVER claimed that, and neither has anyone else. The point I was making is that Beatrice, being in reality a human being, can only make these Red Truths because she has human means of knowing they are true through either 1) Personal knowledge and direct experience due to having been a witness to the Rokkenjima tragedy, or 2) Being an author of a fictional reality wherein she can say anything she wants.

She is not pulling details out of the aether with witch magic, it's all stuff she knows as a person. She is not a psychic.
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Old 2010-11-05, 19:57   Link #5086
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Yes, what Aura said. In fact, the Author Theory when I postulated it way back when had a consequence that certain ideas, including some of the Red Truth must come from Rokkenjima Prime in order for the story to be more well regarded as an Umineko story.

The theory is in my signature, and included is something also included at the time called the Historical Method Theory, which explains how and why the stories are still useful even if they are fictional.

(The Red Text Theory and the idea about 'Core Truth' in the Author Theory are similar. The difference being that Core Truths can include ideas that are not stated in red.)
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Old 2010-11-05, 20:31   Link #5087
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Quote:
Originally Posted by einhorn303 View Post
Anyways, I think one important point is that if the Red Truths don't apply to Rokkenjima Prime, and you can only rely on the fallible and possibly false clues of white text, than one can't say:

"Erika did not exist on Rokkenjima Prime. This is a fact."

One can only say:

"I don't believe that Erika existed on Rokkenjima Prime. This is my subjective opinion."

You can speculate a truth about Rokkenjima prime, but you can't prove a truth about Rokkenjima prime.
Well yeah. But the problem exists regardless. I think that the concept of "Rokkenjima Prime" was introduced before the author theory was commonly accepted and it referred to the most relevant universe, the one in which all the simultaneous truth would collapse after opening the cat box.

Basically it was born from the many world interpretation perspective.
Where I'm getting at is that since the beginning it was clear that the reds are only relevant to their specific world. How can that be denied when you have a "this applies to all games" staring at your face? At that point it became clear that each red truth is not a general truth unless stated otherwise. And even in that otherwise cases people wondered if that applied to all games past and future or all games so far.

The author theory doesn't change much on that department, it still says that all reds are tied to their specific setting, like before.

The only change is that "Rokkenjima Prime" became "the only real universe" and not "the original universe before the quantic superposition".
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Old 2010-11-05, 20:56   Link #5088
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What Jan-Poo said. And we know that Episode One isn't this universe, so that lead to the conclusion of Rokkenjima Prime.
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Old 2010-11-05, 22:12   Link #5089
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Note that "Rokkenjima Prime" is purely speculative at this time. It's very popular and a great many of us tend to believe that unlike say Higurashi which clearly embraced multiple worlds or time loops in some sense, there is only one "reality" within Umineko's setting and the "loop" effect is the result of clever presentation. That doesn't make us right, but I think the weight of the evidence is on there being only one post-1986 world.

Whether we have ever actually seen that world, we don't know. The prevailing notion is that the "Prime" world is similiar to, but perhaps not exactly identical to, the 1998 of ep4.

When people refer to "Rokkenjima Prime," they're referring to the hypothetical reality in which one could exist and read the stories which were found in message bottles or written for the Internet, in whatever format those stories take. We aren't even sure what that means.

Essentially, that "true" universe is unknown. However, in spite of the whole "cat box" claim, it is not unknowable. Whether any red in any game applies to that world, however, is not known. Your guess is as good as mine. Most of what I've seen speculated about the "Prime" universe comes from white text and "reliable" sources such as the endscroll stories and ep4 characters.
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Old 2010-11-06, 00:01   Link #5090
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Regarding levels of reality, I believe that all levels below oneself flatten out. If I'm an observer, with descending levels like:

1. Real world (me).
2. Rokkenjima Prime
3. Gameboards
4. The magical girl anime Maria is watching while on a gameboard.

All the levels below me appear equally fictional. So I don't think I see the point in distinguishing which is more real.

And regarding the mystery of "what really happened on Rokkenjima," since I only have hard evidence about the Gameboards and not about Rokkenjima Prime*, I don't care about that mystery. The mystery of the gameboards is a mystery of absolute evidence and testable theories. The mystery of what really happened on Rokkenjima has no evidence, and no theory can be absolutely disproven. If the game of the gameboards is a game of logic, the game of Rokkenjima Prime must be "guessing what ryukishi07's thought process is like." The form of that second game doesn't interest me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Essentially, that "true" universe is unknown. However, in spite of the whole "cat box" claim, it is not unknowable. Whether any red in any game applies to that world, however, is not known. Your guess is as good as mine. Most of what I've seen speculated about the "Prime" universe comes from white text and "reliable" sources such as the endscroll stories and ep4 characters.
* I don't believe in the truth of anything that isn't in red.
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Old 2010-11-06, 00:07   Link #5091
Renall
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Quote:
Originally Posted by einhorn303 View Post
Regarding levels of reality, I believe that all levels below oneself flatten out. If I'm an observer, with descending levels like:

1. Real world (me).
2. Rokkenjima Prime
3. Gameboards
4. The magical girl anime Maria is watching while on a gameboard.

All the levels below me appear equally fictional. So I don't think I see the point in distinguishing which is more real.
Then you are completely missing what I believe is a rather essential point of deciphering Ryukishi's intent, because he has done exactly as you described, flattened all existing layers into one text. He expects us to attempt to decipher it, this is his entire game.

If you don't care about that, you might as well just read ep1-4 and try to figure out the episodic mysteries, and stop there.
Quote:
And regarding the mystery of "what really happened on Rokkenjima," since I only have hard evidence about the Gameboards and not about Rokkenjima Prime*, I don't care about that mystery. The mystery of the gameboards is a mystery of absolute evidence and testable theories. The mystery of what really happened on Rokkenjima has no evidence, and no theory can be absolutely disproven. If the game of the gameboards is a game of logic, the game of Rokkenjima Prime must be "guessing what ryukishi07's thought process is like." The form of that second game doesn't interest me.

* I don't believe in the truth of anything that isn't in red.
Then, again, you can pretty much be satisfied with ep1-4 and stop right now because all Chiru is about is that "second game" you don't care about. A second game which is, by the way, apparently the game he wanted us playing all along, by his own admission.

Finally, if you don't believe the truth of anything that isn't in red, what exactly is the point of being in a discussion thread? Nothing here will be in red, and any interpretation of red isn't in red itself, so you can't trust it. What, then, is the point of talking about it?
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Old 2010-11-06, 01:29   Link #5092
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Boy, if red is all you care about, you're gonna fucking hate Episode 7.

BTW, I'd like to point out that Erika was someone who claimed that only Red was valid, and look where that got her.

As Dlanor herself said, "And yet, without the Red Truth, how could I possibly convince you that I love you?" ... "You still have not countered the Blue Truths demonstrating that I love you."

If you rely only on the Red Truth, then you're intentionally missing out on the main point Ryukishi is making about truth in the first place. After all, didn't Battler say he decided to trust Beatrice, because "her tears had the red truth mixed in with them?"

Which is a metaphor, by the way.
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Old 2010-11-06, 06:16   Link #5093
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Without love, the truth cannot be seen.

So that means... look at everyone with love to see who can really be trusted?

I think... I finally get what to look for now. Or rather how to look at this whole story.
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Old 2010-11-06, 07:10   Link #5094
serverwolf
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hi there.
right now im tring to slove EP2, i think i already figured out the 'tale' of the first riddel-murder (the chapel)

Spoiler for the "text battle":


Spoiler for the tale:


just from the fact that the key was inside the letter,
this level of reasoning is possible for Serverwolf.
What do you think, everyone?
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Old 2010-11-06, 07:26   Link #5095
Cao Ni Ma
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I already said that in another thread (the Maria one) some times ago. Its either Rosa lied the whole time, the door was never locked in the first place and she committed the crimes. Why would she willingly lie about the chapel being closed and hamper Battler the way she does in the story? Despite that Rosa takes the most traditional detective stance in this EP, going over it again I noticed that everything she says takes into account the detective rules.

Either that or Maria is the culprit or an accomplice, she opened the door to the chapel and closed it again and then re-sealed the letter. The door was locked in the morning and Rosa never lied until the scene "surrender" when noticing that Battler couldn't have placed the letter , threw him under the bus anyways cause the only person that could have done it was her daughter. This possible outcome is foreshadowed in the first episode when under similar circumstances Battler asks how Natsuhi would react if Jessica was one of the likely suspects.

e- I still think that the most important part in the chapel scene is that Beatrice held back on that red about Maria's letter never switching possession. This stumped Battler in EP4, it would have outright crushed him in EP2. I've always believed that Beatrice is protecting the culprit in some way or another and revealing that truth in EP2 would have made Maria the most probable accomplice/culprit.

Last edited by Cao Ni Ma; 2010-11-06 at 07:38.
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Old 2010-11-06, 09:45   Link #5096
AuraTwilight
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I thought it was obvious the door was never locked, since it was pretty conspicuous how it never came up. Rosa unlocking the door twice is just sorta stupid and counterproductive to any agenda or personality you want to assign her, in my opinion.
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Old 2010-11-06, 10:19   Link #5097
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no! rosa is most defenetly not the criminal here.
its a 'story' about the real criminal of the first twilight and rosa's action. rosa is most defenetly inocent in this riddel.

AuraTwilight you talked to me?if you did, i do belive that the door was locked at the 2nd day when rosa unlocked it (like we saw) but it was open in the first day until very early in the morning of the 2nd day where the culrpit (not rosa) locked it.

BTW cao ni ma, rosa is not really the detective, actully she did an action that if you notice what she did, your mind will imidiatly yell "she is the culrpit!"

-edit-
opsy, i forgot 2 importent things in my 'tale'.
the first one is the notice that shanon found in the dining room.
the culrpit probebly put that notice after he locked the chapel, becuse if some servent will enter the dining room and see the notice there while the chapel is open... its bad end for the culrpit. (i hop you understnd what i mean)

the 2nd one is the gold. 3 bars of gold that were inside the chapel, i could slip it into the decoration category, however its pretty much show rosa's inocent (in my eyes at least)

Last edited by serverwolf; 2010-11-06 at 11:01.
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Old 2010-11-06, 11:08   Link #5098
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Why can't the door to the chapel have never been locked at all?
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Old 2010-11-06, 11:16   Link #5099
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Hmm why is ep 2 being talked to in ep 6 thread? It's not like the convo "lead" there either...

And I assume Serverwolf's argument is related to "why would Rosa even go get the key if the door wasn't locked in the first place". There's plenty of answers to that tho. One is that Rosa wasn't aware or thinking about it's locked/unlocked status, just saw the big Happy Halloween Maria and thought of the letter and went to get it, unaware yet of the locked/unlocked status of the room and then very much uncaring after finding out bodies.
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Old 2010-11-06, 11:28   Link #5100
serverwolf
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well, i belive in the white text that was about "rosa unlocked the door to the chapel, the servents witnesed it" (i dont think it was 'magic' i can explain why i think like that but its too hard for me to say it in english)

also, rosa went to the sleeping room to get the key for the chapel. i think it kind of usless if she did that kind of 'act'.
you might say that she did it so that the kids will wake up from her noisyness but that what make it ilogical for me.
rosa couldn't know who will wake up, and by 'chance' it was battler (and he was so dizzy that he fell asleep right away)
i dont think a 'criminal' will rely on some dumb-luck.

also i think that there was this knox about chances and accidents.... cant remember.

about the next riddel, i will ignore jessica and kanon's case becuse it way to easy. its not even a closed room case. so in the secound riddel its gonna be kanon's illusion.

-edit-
UsagiTenpura im talking about the 2EP here becuse no one actully enter the EP2 thread anymore and i didnt read EP7 yet so i dont want to enter the spoiler thread. (and i use spoilers from other EP too)
also, about rosa not noticing: she checked if it was locked or not, it was locked.
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