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Old 2010-11-09, 11:30   Link #18661
Renall
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If the adults were indeed all seven together all night, just about the only time they could have all met with someone to convince them would've been at night, as a collective group. Otherwise they wouldn't all have the same story.
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Old 2010-11-09, 11:33   Link #18662
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Yes, I'm fine with that. If it's just "Yasu faked death, adults lied to kids about finding Kanon," then sure you can have somebody from the FT still alive. However, you have to determine (1) which adults are in on it in ep3 as it would seem to suggest they all are, and (2) the purpose of the lie for later, and (3) why the person in on it doesn't tell the truth the instant they find Rosa Dead For Real(tm).

EDIT: Also the red evasion, but that's another matter.
Wait, I guess arc 3 is far away in my memories but... Is there any scene where the adults explicitely tells the children where each corpses are? I seem to remember that Ronove or Beatrice told so to Battler in the meta world. Doesn't seem the most reliable testimony again.
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Old 2010-11-09, 11:35   Link #18663
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Battler narrates where everyone was. We do not actually see the adults find most of the corpses. So one has to assume Battler and the cousins were told "a, b, c, x, y, and z are all dead, we found them in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, Dr. Nanjo says they're all dead."

That's an easy thing to lie about (if you assume no one will go to check), but the issue would be why.
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Old 2010-11-09, 11:36   Link #18664
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Not any larger then the group of people who lied about arc 5's first twilight tho.

Thanks for the correction btw.
Don't forget there is a group of fake death team in EP6 as well.


Anyway, the funny thing is the fake death part always went foul. And I had doubt on Beatrice (aka Yasu, aka Shannon) murdered them for real
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Old 2010-11-09, 11:38   Link #18665
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Iono, do you have any explanation as of why people lied in arc 6? If you have one maybe you can try to apply it to arc 3.

I guess I could add more. Why did Jessica/Kyrie/Kumasawa/Gohda went along with whatever in arc 4?
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Old 2010-11-09, 11:43   Link #18666
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Iono, do you have any explanation as of why people lied in arc 6? If you have one maybe you can try to apply it to arc 3.

I guess I could add more. Why did Jessica/Kyrie/Kumasawa/Gohda went along with whatever in arc 4?
We don't know who lied in ep6 specifically. For all we know, it was the fakers and the fakers alone and the fathers are reacting genuinely (this would be a mean move on the part of their wives, but the point is their reaction "appears" genuinely enraged and scared).

For any other arc, the question becomes "what kind of leverage might a person have over everyone to get them to participate?" Money is presented as the most obvious leverage, and the one most likely to work on any of the parents. For cousins and servants, that's another question, but at least some notion has been presented, and the bank boxes give an impression of actual sincerity; that is, the person asking them to do something silly was going to follow through on giving them cash for it. Or not. Either way, it doesn't strike me as a very good way to operate if you're a murderer.

Killing people who are off doing some silly thing, especially if they're "supposed" to appear dead anyway in the end, is considerably easier on the logistical side. So either the killer is theatrical and insincere, or is exploiting someone who is theatrical and sincere.
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Old 2010-11-09, 11:52   Link #18667
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I've found that locked-room mysteries frequently involve the crime going wrong in some way.

Example: The killer kills the victim at 11:00 AM. The body is left in a room with a door and window. The window is locked from the inside; the door has a spring lock (can be set to lock when closed). The killer sets up something that will make the victim appear to be alive at 11:30, then establishes an alibi from 11:15 on.

The problem is that, say, it snows briefly at 11:20, and there are no footprints in the snow when the body is discovered. Through no intention of the killer, the crime now seems to be impossible.

And there were some steps to help Shannon evade detection; the parlor is very likely to be the first place they check (except for the parlor and boiler room, the rooms are second floor; if they forget / don't know that the boiler room has a courtyard door, or are distracted by the circle on the inside door, the parlor is the only viable choice). Even if they start with the boiler room, that only opens the chapel; they'd be more likely to check the other rooms in the mansion before hitting the chapel, and would have to get the parlor next anyway.

Also, a person who knows that everything is a real crime will probably be more risk-averse; a person who thinks everything's a harmless act (Gohda and Kumasawa in Episode 4, perhaps) will be more likely to take such risks.

Last edited by rogerpepitone; 2010-11-09 at 12:03.
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Old 2010-11-09, 11:58   Link #18668
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One would imagine Gohda and Kumasawa had to be in on some kind of act to allow themselves to be locked in a shed. The fake-hanging makes it even more obvious. The problem is with them actually being shot, as is the case with a lot of the mysteries.

And Umineko is relatively lean on "impossible" mysteries. Most of them are only such because Battler thinks they are. However, it does rely a lot on mistaken-assumption scenes and, I would guess, on handler accomplices who could accidentally be preventing people from realizing the truth. However, there are simply some cases where Shit Gets Real(tm), to the point that no one could possibly believe that people are still faking. Why no one reacts to that with disclosure is the curious part.
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Old 2010-11-09, 12:19   Link #18669
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We don't know who lied in ep6 specifically. For all we know, it was the fakers and the fakers alone and the fathers are reacting genuinely (this would be a mean move on the part of their wives, but the point is their reaction "appears" genuinely enraged and scared).

For any other arc, the question becomes "what kind of leverage might a person have over everyone to get them to participate?" Money is presented as the most obvious leverage, and the one most likely to work on any of the parents. For cousins and servants, that's another question, but at least some notion has been presented, and the bank boxes give an impression of actual sincerity; that is, the person asking them to do something silly was going to follow through on giving them cash for it. Or not. Either way, it doesn't strike me as a very good way to operate if you're a murderer.

Killing people who are off doing some silly thing, especially if they're "supposed" to appear dead anyway in the end, is considerably easier on the logistical side. So either the killer is theatrical and insincere, or is exploiting someone who is theatrical and sincere.
Well the fakers are people who lied if anything.
I think the best leverage for pre first real murder fakers is what motivated Natsuhi during the first part of arc 5 : not letting secrets out.
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Old 2010-11-09, 12:25   Link #18670
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Iono, do you have any explanation as of why people lied in arc 6? If you have one maybe you can try to apply it to arc 3.

I guess I could add more. Why did Jessica/Kyrie/Kumasawa/Gohda went along with whatever in arc 4?
Well, I have an idea. Let me generalize in this way:

This Shannon, aka Yasu, Beatrice, had deep affectation for Maria, and of course a grumble against Battler. So to kill two birds with one stone, she planned the ritual murder scenes the first two letters-in-the-bottle, where Maria both lived to the end), and told Maria that people would die, and then resurrected in the Golden Land, Rosa included of course. She also make this into a closed-room mystery in order to challenge Battler.

Obviously, she needed accomplices, so she got George (her current love interest), to always look for the unhealthy rose, and basically told him the magic theme. Genji, Kumasawa and Nanjo (let's skip Shkanon issue for the moment), knowing her good intention, offered to help.

But of course, the key element is for the adults to cooperate. So she needed something to persuade them. What's that? Of course the 10 ton gold and family headship. But to get the 10 ton gold, they had to unite to solve the epitaph. On the other hand, in order to get them into the fake death play, she offered the 100 million yen cash. The 10 ton gold is kind of bonus.

Of course, if Battler did not come back, then the fun will be half. So she needed to get him onto the island. Battler's grandparents' death proved to be opportune. But as shown in EP7 tea party, Battler may not come back even the grandparents passed away. So obviously Shannon had done something to make Rudolf to knee before his son to beg him to come back. But how?

Well, through Kyrie. since she was probably the largest obstacle keeping Battler from coming back, Ange might not understand how much her mother hate Battler, but Rudolf probably got it from her action.

Of course just an approval from Kyrie would not be enough for Rudolf to lose his backbone. They needed to have real incentive. So I hypothesize that Shannon just told the whole plan to Kyrie that they would at least get part of the 100 million cash if they can persuade Battler to come back, and Kyrie told Rudolf. So Rudolf became so submissive.

Now, as Kyrie knew about the upcoming fake death play, she got her own plan... and dragged Rudolf into it

In different episode, especially in EP2, Beatrice assembled the adults to tell them her plan. As they were all debt-ridden, they could not but comply with the plan. Of course something always happen to make thing go wrong.

EP1, Kyrie, Rudolf tried to kill the others in the diner room, success for a few kills, but ultimately killed. Shannon had no choice but to use ritual as the real cover. And set the bomb on.

EP2, Rosa accidentally poisoned every other adults inside the chapel to death (because she got paranoid when she met Beatrice-in-suit, when Shannon did not know she murdered Beatrice in the past). When Rosa killed Jessica in fear of being exposed, Shannon decided everything should be buried in the catbox again.

EP3, the six servants faked death. Well, Rudolf or Kyrie backtracked to kill them all (just like Erika in EP6). And then Eva went on the killing spree. Nanjo could be killed by Kyrie or Beatrice (lame personality dead here) Eva found the gold and the bomb. BOOM!

EP4, Kyrie preempted Shannon by suggesting Kinzo could be dead. So Shannon had no choice but to change her plan, by staging a headship test. The adults all failed. Then, she recruited Krauss and Kyrie as helpers, in order to convince the children Kinzo had been staging the test. Then Kyrie and Rudolf flipped and killed some people. In fact, kidnap Shannon. Then she ordered Kumasawa and Godha to tell the fairy tale to the children in the guesthouse, in order to lure them out to murder them. Jessica complied because she found out her father had been the one to kill Godha and Kumasawa, so she didn't want Battler to find out. Kyrie, at the end, said she had won because she knew Shannon would cover everything in the disguise of Beatrice, and Ange would be the last successor. She complied because she did not want him to know his father is the murderer. Again, knowing the truth, Shannon jsut setup the bomb and everything gone.

EP5, Erika came and solved the epitaph with Battler, before the adults had taken part in the fake death play. But Eva had been unsatisfied so she utilized Shannon's plan, so she utilized the plan in order to force Natsuhi to accept Kinzo was dead. Then Kyrie again manipulated behind the scenes to kill everyone for real. Shannon did not trigger the bomb since she did not know who was the murderer at all.


EP6, Battler rembered his promise before the first midnight, Shannon was overjoyed and she revealed she was already the head of the family and she was willing to give the gold to the adults, and headship to Krauss. Then Battler offered to help in the fake death play in order to make Maria happy. He carried the news to the mothers and asked them for help, also to humiliate Erika. The mothers agreed to keep the play as the secret so to maintain the "surprise". The Then Eirka came to kill for real. Not that Kyrie had not her plan, take notice of where she chose to stay...

EP7 Leon's world. Without Beatrice's fake death plan just make Kyrie's plan a little bit difficult. I suppose she had some general idea of what Rokkenjima was during WWII, but she could not locate the explosive without solving the epitaph (the chapel part). But then the adults solved the epitaph, Kyrie found the explosive trigger inside the clock. So she could start the killing party now.

But for the tea party part, that's my choke point. Since it is really hard for me to understand why someone who some minutes ago are just discussing marriage with some fat guy suddenly became so depressed and sit inside a locked room for no reason.
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Last edited by ijriims; 2010-11-09 at 12:49.
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Old 2010-11-09, 12:58   Link #18671
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I think that ties up some things rather nicely, but it is leaving several things out. For example, in EP1, Hideyoshi is clearly involved to some extent in EP1's 1st Twilight, maybe Eva as well, due to her odd behaviour.

In EP2 I doubt Rosa could have killed Jessica, since I don't think she had the master keys at that point (and those keys were required for the creation of that closed room), and on top of that, I'm sure Rosa has quite a good alibi for that scene. The only ones without an alibi would be Genji, Gohda and Shannon.

In addition, why would George take part in this? He surely is Shannon's current love interest, but wouldn't he find it odd Shannon is doing all of this just for Battler, who he used to be jealous of?

Not to mention this idea relies on all of them flipping on almost every story. This would make that "accidents" fanart even more believable, if you ask me.
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Old 2010-11-09, 13:09   Link #18672
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And Umineko is relatively lean on "impossible" mysteries. Most of them are only such because Battler thinks they are. However, it does rely a lot on mistaken-assumption scenes and, I would guess, on handler accomplices who could accidentally be preventing people from realizing the truth. However, there are simply some cases where Shit Gets Real(tm), to the point that no one could possibly believe that people are still faking. Why no one reacts to that with disclosure is the curious part.
Well, Natsuhi and Rosa both suddenly decide to setup closed room barricades in ep 1 and ep 2. While Eva, who's been doing nothing for the whole of ep 3, suddenly decides to go out to the mansion to find George.

Basically, I'd say each of them had a "shit got real" moment just before that.
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Old 2010-11-09, 13:58   Link #18673
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For Natsuhi the obvious moment is the discovery of Kinzo's corpse. She was aggressive and assertive before, but thereafter she flips out, seals everyone in the study, then starts kicking people out (including Maria!) in a rage. If she's acting by that time, she's way too good at it (not to mention being okay with Kinzo's burning, which seems wildly out of character for her).

On the other hand, the people she throws out sure are convenient selections...
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Old 2010-11-09, 14:15   Link #18674
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Not that convenient. It's everyone left alive who isn't an Ushiromiya plus that creepy psycho kid that every reader was shouting, "SHOOT THE BITCH, SHE'S IN ON IT. KILL HER NOW."

Honestly, I'm surprised people put up with Maria's bullshit as long as they do.
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Old 2010-11-09, 14:19   Link #18675
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Well Battler does smack her over and over.
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Old 2010-11-09, 14:20   Link #18676
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Not that convenient. It's everyone left alive who isn't an Ushiromiya plus that creepy psycho kid that every reader was shouting, "SHOOT THE BITCH, SHE'S IN ON IT. KILL HER NOW."

Honestly, I'm surprised people put up with Maria's bullshit as long as they do.
Well yes, but that's the problem. The group she sends out is pretty much exactly the most likely group of Beatrice's accomplices. So if Natsuhi is acting, she just sent Beatrice her own crew. If she's not acting, Natsuhi made the single best guess in the entire series by shoehorning Nanjo, Maria, and Kumasawa in with Genji.

Then again, she kept Jessica and George. We'll see how wise that turns out to be.
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Old 2010-11-09, 14:26   Link #18677
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Then again, she kept Jessica and George. We'll see how wise that turns out to be.
Honestly, the only people who are really above suspicion at this point are Battler, Natsuhi (because of Ep5), Eva (because every time she kills it's by accident/insanity/KYRIEYOUBITCH), Krauss (because incompetent) and Gohda (because there is no fucking way that's going to happen).

Every single other person could and probably did kill someone else for completely malicious reasons at some time.
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Old 2010-11-09, 14:28   Link #18678
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Well I think that scene of the end of arc 1 with the letter has to be compared with the scene in the parlor in the end of arc 2. Some similarities.

A mother is holding the gun and chases people away as being suspicious.
Maria is present.
The chased away goes to the parlor in arc 1, the chased away remains in the parlor in arc 2.
Both Rosa (in arc 2) and Natsuhi are aware of Kinzo's already dead status making them to some level accomplices of the servants.

If we take who's being chased out and who remains it's exact opposite as Maria gets chased out in arc 1 and remains in arc 2 while it's the opposite with Battler.

That would seem to suggest that it was indeed a guess in arc 1.
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Old 2010-11-09, 14:35   Link #18679
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The main difference of course being that Natsuhi doesn't suspect Battler, and Rosa does. That's not the weirdest part of ep2 though. Ep2 gives people way too much freedom; Genji basically hangs out by himself for long stretches of the episode and is completely fine, and Battler hangs out alone in the parlor, heads off to get wasted, and encounters not a soul until Genji comes to get him.

Basically, it makes it seem very unlikely there's an indiscriminate killer going around in ep2, as otherwise one of Genji, Battler, or Rosa/Maria should've turned up dead, yet as far as we know all are basically ignored.
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Old 2010-11-09, 14:37   Link #18680
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I always believed the letter was placed by Maria as she's the common link in both cases and she's been known to have letters before. Also the reason why she would use them is clear, she just wants to break up the groups that are formed that lock themselves inside a room. She doesn't care if she's part of the group cause she knows she wont be killed afterwards. In EP3 she does the same thing with Rosa except that time she didn't use a letter.
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