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Old 2010-11-28, 02:41   Link #10101
ganbaru
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Betweem wisdom and insanity
Oregon bomb-plot suspect told agents he wanted ‘a spectacular show'
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle1816351/
Another young than wanted to kill a bunch of peoples, just this time it wasn't a shot-out but terrorism.
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Old 2010-11-28, 03:27   Link #10102
Jinto
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
Less younger investors now = less winners to share the winner's pie = larger profits for those with winning trades.
Let me correct this: Less younger investors => less rate of return is created by less speculation => less specucaltion bubbles => less opportunists making loads of money in the artificially boosted up and downs of the stock market

When I hear investment bankers (scammers) whine about the young investor's spending habbits and at the same time are trying to convert them back to the scamming system... I feel like punching some sense into them
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Old 2010-11-28, 04:04   Link #10103
SaintessHeart
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Originally Posted by Jinto View Post
Let me correct this: Less younger investors => less rate of return is created by less speculation => less specucaltion bubbles => less opportunists making loads of money in the artificially boosted up and downs of the stock market
Okay that makes much more sense......though equating "young" investors to haphazard ones is rather...general. I have known a couple of friends my age who make around 20k per year scalping on forex and commodities every month.

Quote:
When I hear investment bankers (scammers) whine about the young investor's spending habbits and at the same time are trying to convert them back to the scamming system... I feel like punching some sense into them
I suppose that those "IBs" you refer to are some hedge-fund managers, but I am not exactly sure what you mean by the "scamming system".

Seriously speaking, sometimes I find that their idea of "investing" is a little ridiculous, granted though risk is present in all forms of investing, short-selling is nowhere less risky than buying stocks and holding them, trading software have something called "stop loss" and "draw channel lines", and it is only 100% risky when you don't use these stuff at all.

Though right now, I REALLY don't know what is the hype about forex amongst us youngsters as the "best first step" in learning how to invest. Some of those around my age kept going "let's short on anything equated to the USD because it is going to be bearish in the long run" make me want to go facepalm : sure it is going bearish but it doesn't mean it isn't going to grow from time to time - ever heard of inflation and rallies?

One thing I fear though, is that I might get peer-pressured into "leeching the fake guru" - an economic boom is imminent so anything you buy will most likely go up, and I might just buy into what the next thing the Bloomberg newscaster suggests, passed onto me from one of my more popular classmates.
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Most of all, you have to be disciplined and you have to save, even if you hate our current financial system. Because if you don't save, then you're guaranteed to end up with nothing.
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Old 2010-11-28, 05:00   Link #10104
Jinto
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
I suppose that those "IBs" you refer to are some hedge-fund managers, but I am not exactly sure what you mean by the "scamming system".
No I precisely did not just include hedge-fund managers, they are often only a greedy (or stupid) necessity of the whole "scamming system".
The financial system with all the markets (e.g. stock exchange, real estate market, credit market, currency market...) has when you summarize it a lot of loop-holes and hence is misused where-ever possible. Unfortunately a comparison with a lottery cannot be made (since lottery promises high interest returns, but at the same time is honest and easy enough to understand in that only a selected lucky few get those returns... and it is purely based on luck, not on the money you can pump into the system to make it more benficial for you).

Many of the small IB fish are just... uh... jugglers, they think they know what they are doing and believe in a system that they do not fully understand. Its more like a religious cult of money less like serious business when you entrust them with your money. They are simply marionettes.

But there are also people who understand the system, but have not enough influence/money to make it work efficiently for them or simply do not care. Those I would put in another category of people who will happily trade critical thinking for a personal gain:

http://www.allposters.co.uk/-sp/Futu..._i2370652_.htm

And than you have the cult leaders...

What I basically wanted to say is, that every IB has at least his/her own little greed-driven function in that system (since I don't want to generalize I will admit that there might be a few exemptions - but they cannot be very succesful IBs... because their investment plans cannot keep pace with the much more promising high risk (begs the question for whom high risk anyway) plans of their colleagues who sell these things like it was virtually foolproof business (again begs the question for whom and what "virtually" means).

Anyway, I'ld still wouldn't call the whole system a scam if it were just that. The line where I call it scam is when the investment strategies are not allowed to fail (because there is a systemic risk) and the people who gained extra ordiniraly while being aware of the forseeable break down are not held accountable and hence make the strategy beneficial for a selected few (the scam masters) and bad for everyone else (including those who never agreed to take part in the whole high risk game - but are unlucky enough to have no choice but to shoulder the bailouts).
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Old 2010-11-28, 07:16   Link #10105
SaintessHeart
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jinto View Post
No I precisely did not just include hedge-fund managers, they are often only a greedy (or stupid) necessity of the whole "scamming system".
The financial system with all the markets (e.g. stock exchange, real estate market, credit market, currency market...) has when you summarize it a lot of loop-holes and hence is misused where-ever possible. Unfortunately a comparison with a lottery cannot be made (since lottery promises high interest returns, but at the same time is honest and easy enough to understand in that only a selected lucky few get those returns... and it is purely based on luck, not on the money you can pump into the system to make it more benficial for you).
Exchange and investment is supposed to suit everyone, but the thing is not to overdo it, or not to do it when one has absolutely no idea how it works.

Being a student of Finance myself, I do realise that even what the schools teach are incredibly condensed, I don't remember a teacher introducing Keynes and go through his IS/LM in detail. The WORST one I have ever seen said "The whole economy of the world is based on the efficient market hypothesis".

The real estate market is probably one of the most bloated markets in the world, because it is simply assumed in many sectors that land itself will never decrease in value in the long run (and that is because of inflation). The next one up, will be the currency market, as governments continue to value other countries' currencies in their own terms.

The last part of having the "money pumped into the system" with regards to our economy, is actually inevitable as the world "shrinks". To let an economy itself simply crash can be disastrous to the future growth as it might take eons to even recover to the previously rate of growth, leading to civil instability. It is actually a large part, a political issue as the ruling has to protect their position.

Personally speaking, I think the market can be dirty, but I guess it is fair enough as a testament to how greedy all of us are.

On a less serious note, there is one ultimate way for the stupid to trade, the Elliot Wave Principle.

Quote:
Many of the small IB fish are just... uh... jugglers, they think they know what they are doing and believe in a system that they do not fully understand. Its more like a religious cult of money less like serious business when you entrust them with your money. They are simply marionettes.

But there are also people who understand the system, but have not enough influence/money to make it work efficiently for them or simply do not care. Those I would put in another category of people who will happily trade critical thinking for a personal gain:

http://www.allposters.co.uk/-sp/Futu..._i2370652_.htm

And than you have the cult leaders...

What I basically wanted to say is, that every IB has at least his/her own little greed-driven function in that system (since I don't want to generalize I will admit that there might be a few exemptions - but they cannot be very succesful IBs... because their investment plans cannot keep pace with the much more promising high risk (begs the question for whom high risk anyway) plans of their colleagues who sell these things like it was virtually foolproof business (again begs the question for whom and what "virtually" means).

Anyway, I'ld still wouldn't call the whole system a scam if it were just that. The line where I call it scam is when the investment strategies are not allowed to fail (because there is a systemic risk) and the people who gained extra ordiniraly while being aware of the forseeable break down are not held accountable and hence make the strategy beneficial for a selected few (the scam masters) and bad for everyone else (including those who never agreed to take part in the whole high risk game - but are unlucky enough to have no choice but to shoulder the bailouts).
That would be another force driving the market : fear. Combined with greed they are as simple as how the market runs (minus the technicalities of business administration, economics and finance). In fact, I would say they are the fundamentals of market psychology.

Not wanting to have an investment fail is every fund manager / banker's dream, but it is undoubtedly unrealistic because an investment is a business and shit happens. It has to be taken seriously, updated and watched from time to time to ensure that the source of income doesn't disappear.

Cult leadership is pretty much how most "day traders" surround "professionals" from places like Bloomberg and WSJ. The followers are leeches. What is worse that some people claim to trade by "price action" and put themselves into financial ruin by not wanting to believe that they have lost the trade. The mantra of "cut your losses and let your profits run" is put down by those who didn't know what is enough for them, and what needs to be stopped immediately (namely, don't move the damn stop loss).

A business is a major project undertaken, there has to be some form of damage control. Even modern battleship doctrines include a certain set of parameters to be fulfilled before the crew is to bail, so why many financial institutions simply don't want to admit that their plans of investment failed?

P.S Actually, I was wondering about the British debt to US since WWII, I don't remember seeing it being repaid, and I seriously wonder how much is it now due to inflation.

If that is so, the entire world is now in debt, not even the financial strength of China can save the world economy in the next few crashes.
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When three puppygirls named after pastries are on top of each other, it is called Eclair a'la menthe et Biscotti aux fraises avec beaucoup de Ricotta sur le dessus.
Most of all, you have to be disciplined and you have to save, even if you hate our current financial system. Because if you don't save, then you're guaranteed to end up with nothing.
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Old 2010-11-28, 08:36   Link #10106
Jinto
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
The last part of having the "money pumped into the system" with regards to our economy, is actually inevitable as the world "shrinks". To let an economy itself simply crash can be disastrous to the future growth as it might take eons to even recover to the previously rate of growth, leading to civil instability. It is actually a large part, a political issue as the ruling has to protect their position.
I would say thats a convenient excuse right? Besides, the growths statitistics are flawed in that they include the growth of the virtual bubble (which makes up most of the statistical growth and is responsible for the future inflation - using several indirections on its way to make it look plausible).
An economy doesn't automatically crash when it doesn't grow for a decade. The real problem is debt, to be able to repay rising debt, economy growth is the driving factor and thus wanting more investment (which creates more debt)....
This is basically a competition who can live best at the cutting edge balancing on a knife's edge (celebrating deregulation). This however makes the whole system terribly chaotic (and you don't need to ask an oracle to predict who is hit worst in such a chaos... certainly not the scam masters).

Last edited by Jinto; 2010-11-28 at 09:45.
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Old 2010-11-28, 14:21   Link #10107
Roger Rambo
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Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
Though I wonder if they really have any effect since their doctrine is less on self-preservation and more of "fight to death". The more effective commando tactics are often "live to fight another day" rather than "die and take some with me".
Someone willing to fight suicidally and aggressively is more dangerious in the short term. Long term it's easier to kill him. Though since a war probably wouldn't last long enough for the North Koreans to be concerned about a long term...

Quote:
Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
Therefore, they wouldn't send recruits to the frontlines since it will take an entire platoon of know-nothings to defeat a single commando. Or at least they won't do so without giving them COIN training (which would take up to 6 months).
I wouldn't quite say that. Special forces units often get the highest quality personnel and the most training, but they're hardly super soldiers. They're specialists with highly specific missions. Namely get behind enemy lines, move fast and hit hard. If a special forces unit ever gets bogged in a firefight with regular infantry behind enemy lines, they're in a pretty FUBAR situation. Commando units are two small and lightly armed to survive a stand up fire fight with regular infantry.

...although it'd certainly be a good idea to assign ROK special forces teams, particularly the counter terrorist ones. I'm thinking that one thing the North Korean infiltrators would try to do is something similar in the Mumbai attacks, with ununiformed attackers raising as much havoc as possible. Although there's likely to be far more of them, and much better coordinated.


Along with artillery and nuclear attack, infiltrators are probably the biggest threat the North Koreans have in their deck.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
Actually, IMHO, given how the 707th have performed in the Vietnam War, I have some confidence in the ROK Army's COIN measures.
Well South Korea does have a home field advantage. Infiltrating North Korean commandos don't exactly have a sympathetic population to hide amongst.

Though given the Koreans history at COIN ops during Vietnam...being a captured ununiformed North Korean infiltrator is bound to not be pleasant experiance.
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Old 2010-11-28, 14:29   Link #10108
SaintessHeart
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Originally Posted by Roger Rambo View Post
Someone willing to fight suicidally and aggressively is more dangerious in the short term. Long term it's easier to kill him. Though since a war probably wouldn't last long enough for the North Koreans to be concerned about a long term...
Most likely they would be shot since they have significantly less value than a normal commando with specific S&D objectives - I believe NK commando doctrine is to simply cause as much damage and possible, then die while doing so.

Quote:
I wouldn't quite say that. Special forces units often get the highest quality personnel and the most training, but they're hardly super soldiers. They're specialists with highly specific missions. Namely get behind enemy lines, move fast and hit hard. If a special forces unit ever gets bogged in a firefight with regular infantry behind enemy lines, they're in a pretty FUBAR situation. Commando units are two small and lightly armed to survive a stand up fire fight with regular infantry.
Combat doctrine for commandos are often psychological in nature when contacted during their retreat : cause as much damage as possible to slow down chasers, and move back.

Quote:
...although it'd certainly be a good idea to assign ROK special forces teams, particularly the counter terrorist ones. I'm thinking that one thing the North Korean infiltrators would try to do is something similar in the Mumbai attacks, with ununiformed attackers raising as much havoc as possible. Although there's likely to be far more of them, and much better coordinated.
If they do it, China is going to break ties with them. The Chinese are one that does not tolerate this kind of terrorist elements involving civilian meatshields.

Quote:
Though given the Koreans history at COIN ops during Vietnam...being a captured ununiformed North Korean infiltrator is bound to not be pleasant experiance.
So.....the POW will be forced to voice-act shoujo manga aloud in front of their captors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jinto View Post
I would say thats a convenient excuse right? Besides, the growths statitistics are flawed in that they include the growth of the virtual bubble (which makes up most of the statistical growth and is responsible for the future inflation - using several indirections on its way to make it look plausible).
An economy doesn't automatically crash when it doesn't grow for a decade. The real problem is debt, to be able to repay rising debt, economy growth is the driving factor and thus wanting more investment (which creates more debt)....
This is basically a competition who can live best at the cutting edge balancing on a knife's edge (celebrating deregulation). This however makes the whole system terribly chaotic (and you don't need to ask an oracle to predict who is hit worst in such a chaos... certainly not the scam masters).
It is supposed to be a convenient excuse : for the people who are pumping in the money, namely the government who are using taxpayers' cash, AND the banks who are lending the money they are helping taxpayers to safekeep. So the person at the bottom of the food chain is the citizen himself

The thing is, the debt-system we have used has been in place for close to a century since the start of the British Empire's decline, WWI/WWII and the entire of Cold War itself. WWI has caused plenty of damage to Europe and France that technically speaking, it is technically impossible for Germany at that time to repay the entire reparation according to the Treaty of Versailles, making the entire Europe in debt. Then came WWII which US sold arms and materiel on credit to the frontlines, namely Europe.

Then we have the Cold War, which by then, the whole world is in debt, and the communist countries dropped themselves into it thanks to collectivisation and the focus on output, driving them into losses and losses.

Though the US removed the peg of the dollar to gold in 1970 and giving it virtual control of the entire's world economy, it is already in bad debt. And the subsequent crises are simply worsening it along with inflation : in short, Grisham' Law has already come true and the pieces of paper we have in our hands, on a macroeconomic scale, is worthless and as good as bad money. The reason why it is given a value is because someone else is holding onto our debt, and we are holding onto someone else's.

I do realise that this is how the world works and it is disgusting, but the problem is that we have gotten so deep into this mess that digging our way out would mean to rebuild the entire financial system from scratch; the best we could do right now is to tighten regulations, however the corporations would move to countries with less regulation and deprive our government of corporate tax, which is usually larger than how much an average citizen pays altogether.

It is an irony that the business entities are those who create the pitfalls and the citizens clean up the mess. Though virtual bubbles create short-term benefits for a period of economic boom, and facilitates liquidity of money, the crashes they cause are huge when the time comes to repay the debt : the bank lends but is bogged down by the huge number of bad debts that it has to fold.

Investment companies are so concerned about liquidity (what they bought that can be sold) that they forget that they are helping to forment a bubble. In the context of science, air is the most viscous and fluid out of the three basic states of matter, and when it is all air in the bubble, it simply bursts due to differences in low external pressure (market reality) and high internal pressure (market expectation).
__________________

When three puppygirls named after pastries are on top of each other, it is called Eclair a'la menthe et Biscotti aux fraises avec beaucoup de Ricotta sur le dessus.
Most of all, you have to be disciplined and you have to save, even if you hate our current financial system. Because if you don't save, then you're guaranteed to end up with nothing.

Last edited by SaintessHeart; 2010-11-28 at 15:11.
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Old 2010-11-28, 14:53   Link #10109
ganbaru
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Betweem wisdom and insanity
Opposition cries foul in Egyptian election
http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNew...6AR0OB20101128
Haiti candidates demand cancellation of elections
http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNew...14515320101128

Did someone really expected it to go in another way ?
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Old 2010-11-28, 15:40   Link #10110
Roger Rambo
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Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
If they do it, China is going to break ties with them. The Chinese are one that does not tolerate this kind of terrorist elements involving civilian meatshields.
This would also be while the North Koreans would be bombarding Seoul with artillery and long range missiles. If china is hoping for North Korea to not come off as marauding barbarians they're very optimistic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
So.....the POW will be forced to voice-act shoujo manga aloud in front of their captors?
Yes. That...with their throats cut open.


The little amount of stuff I've read about South Korean Marines and Special forces is that you don't want to fuck around with them behind their backs.
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Old 2010-11-28, 15:44   Link #10111
Jinto
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@SaintessHeart,

lets say that I agree, in that I don't know of an ideal solution for the debt/growth problem. Typically I would propose stricter regulation, but it requires only a selected few develop(ed/ing) countries, who risk the stability of the entire system, in order to have an economically sunnier place than others, for a certain amount of time (international competition) to counter any such stabilization efforts. This is where capitalism basically axes itself (sustainable growth is a long term goal, but raising profits is a more important short term goal).
What I want to say is, that I do not disagree with you, but I guess I am more idealistic (not that I have a solution). :P
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Old 2010-11-28, 18:13   Link #10112
GundamFan0083
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Well, the Irish are pretty pissed right now.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010...trators-dublin

Oh, and wikileaks just dropped a "info-bomb" on the world, 250,000 of them anyway.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/29/wo...s.html?_r=1&hp
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Old 2010-11-28, 18:44   Link #10113
bladeofdarkness
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good old Wikileaks.
showing us once again, that sufficient amounts of stupidity are indistinguishable from malice.
foolish and dangerous.
this will cause needless damage, and will more then likely get people killed.

or maybe thats the point.
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Old 2010-11-28, 19:08   Link #10114
Rickketik
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truth kills I guess..
well technically no one has been killed by the actions of wikileaks so far (and they have been doing this for a while now) so I guess we'll wait and see.
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Old 2010-11-28, 19:17   Link #10115
ganbaru
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Originally Posted by Rickketik View Post
truth kills I guess..
well technically no one has been killed by the actions of wikileaks so far (and they have been doing this for a while now) so I guess we'll wait and see.
That we don't know. It very unlikely than we will learn by the news than civilian X or Y killed by the talibans was a informant for the US.
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Old 2010-11-28, 19:33   Link #10116
Rickketik
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I highly doubt that. The US wouldn't think twice before releasing all the information if such a thing happened, it would be in their interest.
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Old 2010-11-28, 19:35   Link #10117
MrTerrorist
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Wikileaks cables: key issues

Some interesting bits from Wikileaks. No surprise, some of the Arab countries don't like President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the US think PM Silvio Berlusconi is very vain leader.
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Old 2010-11-28, 19:44   Link #10118
bladeofdarkness
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Originally Posted by MrTerrorist View Post
Wikileaks cables: key issues

Some interesting bits from Wikileaks. No surprise, some of the Arab country don't like President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and US think PM Silvio Berlusconi is very vain leader.
no
many of the leading arab leaders have ASKED the us to ATTACK iran.
there is a difference between the two.
the fact that they don't like each other isn't new (its the middle east, nobody likes anyone)
the fact that its now public information that they made attempts to attack Iran via a third party - is likely to cause problems in the future.
exposing this fact publicly might well lead to an escalation in the future.
especially if Iran does turn nuclear some day.

diplomacy in the middle east requires tact, balance, and double talk.
and these documents fly in the face of all that.
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Old 2010-11-28, 19:51   Link #10119
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Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post


So.....the POW will be forced to voice-act shoujo manga aloud in front of their captors?


listen to the bee gees for 24hrs a day.
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Old 2010-11-28, 20:51   Link #10120
SaintessHeart
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Originally Posted by Jinto View Post
@SaintessHeart,

lets say that I agree, in that I don't know of an ideal solution for the debt/growth problem. Typically I would propose stricter regulation, but it requires only a selected few develop(ed/ing) countries, who risk the stability of the entire system, in order to have an economically sunnier place than others, for a certain amount of time (international competition) to counter any such stabilization efforts. This is where capitalism basically axes itself (sustainable growth is a long term goal, but raising profits is a more important short term goal).
What I want to say is, that I do not disagree with you, but I guess I am more idealistic (not that I have a solution). :P
Actually you just posted a viable solution : tighter regulation. It is, in fact possible to do so without pissing investors and MNCs off when all the rules are laid down in black and white. Every law has its loopholes, like my local property law which is changed to stem foreign speculation of local homes as property, but there is a loophole (which is probably intentional) to aid in the growth of the property market in another way, benefiting both the government and investors. Though the regulation must have a concrete objective in mind directed at a current problem of the government.

The world shifts accordingly between order and chaos : where there is order, chaos will occur. Where there is chaos, order will arise. It is only a matter of time before an appointment holder in society, known as the "politician" realises that sinking too far to one side is nowhere good for the future. The problem is, who will that guy be?

I am a pragmatist by default btw, so I am actually not far off from the idealist-optimist-pragmatist-pessimist spectrum of perspectives.
__________________

When three puppygirls named after pastries are on top of each other, it is called Eclair a'la menthe et Biscotti aux fraises avec beaucoup de Ricotta sur le dessus.
Most of all, you have to be disciplined and you have to save, even if you hate our current financial system. Because if you don't save, then you're guaranteed to end up with nothing.
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