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Old 2010-11-30, 20:43   Link #10221
Sumeragi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yezhanquan View Post
You're still operating on the basis that unification will come. From how I see it, there seems to be a hardening of attitudes that unification is undesirable. Logistically and politically, the odds are against it so much that I probably will live to see it only if I go to 90 and above.
I'm operating on what the people are thinking first, before going on with reunification. The point is, what will the people of today do if reunification comes tomorrow? I'm assuming everything on that, BEFORE working for reunification.
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Old 2010-11-30, 20:46   Link #10222
yezhanquan
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I think our carts and horses are in different positions. The thing is, I'm not really sure which is the actual horse and which is the actual cart.
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Old 2010-11-30, 20:50   Link #10223
Kamui4356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
Which they cannot mobilize enough to get to Manchuria. A reunified Korea would also be worth the same as the entire PRC military, in terms of strength.
Yeah... No, Just no. Even if it was, that's not enough to invade, especially since everyone would side with China. If you're counting on US support, the US has a history of pulling it when the country in question decides to invade and annex someone else's territory. Ask Argentina and Iraq.



Quote:
There is no intentions on full integration. All plans for post-reunification economy has the north being separate from the south, and used as a place for labor intenstive industries.

Korea does not want to repeat the mistakes of German.
So treating the north as a colony and source of cheap labor? I can't imagine how this could possibly go wrong.



Quote:
Yes, I'm a nationalist Japanese/Korean who believes the Koreas and Japan needs to form a union, develop nuclear weapons, and be the counterweight to a reunified China. This isn't a joke, btw.
No, it is a joke. A very bad one. You're proposing three nations that hate each other come together to oppose a 4th nation and become expansionist. Perhaps you forget what happened the last time such a thing was tried? China's in a much better position to defend itself this time as well.

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Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
The problem is, if DPRK agrees to reunification, any act by PRC to stop it by occupation will be an act of war, in which ROK can intervene. And when that happens......
North Korea will only agree to reunification under their rule. Obviously this will be unacceptable to South Korea.

Quote:
Shall I continue? After all, the only thing China has right now which is of advantage against ROK is manpower, and even that isn't that much an advantage.
You don't seem to know much about the state of China's military. They're in the process of extensive modernization. A war will only accelerate this. Also, they have one hell of a manpower advantage. For comparison's sake North Korea's current standing army is about 4.5% of the population. If China mobilized to that extent we'd be looking at an army of 58.5 million. One percent of China's population would still be an army of 13 million. The only nations on Earth that could beat China in a conventional war are the US, and maybe Russia or India, and that's assuming said conventional war isn't an invasion of China itself. No one can beat China in such a scenario.
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Last edited by Kamui4356; 2010-11-30 at 21:16.
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Old 2010-11-30, 21:10   Link #10224
Sumeragi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kamui4356 View Post
Yeah... No, Just no. Even if it was, that's not enough to invade, especially since everyone would side with China. If you're counting on US support, the US has a history of pulling it when the country in question decides to invade and annex someone else's territory. Ask Argentina and Iraq.
Who said about invading


Quote:
Originally Posted by Kamui4356 View Post
So treating the north as a colony and source of cheap labor? I can't imagine how this could possibly go wrong.
Or we could just let the fences fall and let the former DPRK people be exploited in the hypercapitalist society of ROK. What could go wrong with that?

When even the DPRK people who escaped to the south support such a plan, it's the best alternative among the various difficult choices.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Kamui4356 View Post
No, it is a joke. A very bad one. You're proposing three nations that hate each other come together to oppose a 4th nation and become expansionist. Perhaps you forget what happened the last time such a thing was tried? China's in a much better position to defend itself this time as well.
It's a goal I work for. Is that any worse than what some people try? After all, Japan is already going down the drains with external help, ROK needs the tech of Japan, and DPRK needs the moeny of both. I'm thinking in lines of a EU rather than a federation.
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Old 2010-11-30, 21:24   Link #10225
Kamui4356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
Who said about invading


Quote:
Originally Posted by you
expect to see a constant struggle to reclaim Manchuria.
Quote:
Or we could just let the fences fall and let the former DPRK people be exploited in the hypercapitalist society of ROK. What could go wrong with that?

When even the DPRK people who escaped to the south support such a plan, it's the best alternative among the various difficult choices.
Or, you could not seek immediate reunification set up a more open government, and let foreign nations invest in the North, building up its economy for eventual reunification. This would work better than treating them as a colony.

Quote:
It's a goal I work for. Is that any worse than what some people try? After all, Japan is already going down the drains with external help, ROK needs the tech of Japan, and DPRK needs the moeny of both. I'm thinking in lines of a EU rather than a federation.
Not going to work unless you include China. All three nations in question have more trade with China than each other.
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Old 2010-11-30, 22:31   Link #10226
Noctis Lucis
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jinto View Post
Not quite. Because the lines you draw so precisely in theory are very blured in reality.
To some extent, true. But there's a line at least. In fact, let's call it a THICK line, where if you step on it, it's fine. Stepping BEYOND it is the problem.


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Originally Posted by Jinto View Post
If you really think a capable politician does not know what others think of him/her, then you underestimate them a little bit. This is basically a game between born liars and tactitians.
True. That's the point of propaganda, is in not?



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Originally Posted by Jinto View Post
Technically invading Iraq was a crime too. I cannot remember any US politician taking responsibility for that.
I noted that before.


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Originally Posted by Jinto View Post
Somehow I think the only people really surprised about those releases are the masses who are fed with the correct world view by the local mass media .
Or Fox news watchers.

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Originally Posted by yezhanquan View Post
Again, Assange brings nothing new to the table. Come on, these so-called secret documents contained stuff which are par for the course. Diplomacy is "speaking politely in public, and being brutally honest in private"...

Assange, please come back when you really have something which the average observer worth his salt had never even remotely thought of. Talking about the elephant in the living room is exciting for academics and historians.... and that's about it.
Look at his previous leaks. This one was not that shocking in comparison.

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Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
A hypernationalist France, that is.
Isn't it what it is right now - to an extent, looking at the strikes against the African slums?

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Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post

Which they cannot mobilize enough to get to Manchuria. A reunified Korea would also be worth the same as the entire PRC military, in terms of strength.
You sure about that? China's population is 1.3 billion. Just mobilizing 10% of that in war is enough to put down Korea, Japan and the rest of ASEAN.

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Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
There is no intentions on full integration. All plans for post-reunification economy has the north being separate from the south, and used as a place for labor intensive industries.
Won't happen for long. Most Koreans know that a war occurs every 50 years in Korea. The last was in 1950. DPRK will attack anytime now...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post


Yes, I'm a nationalist Japanese/Korean who believes the Koreas and Japan needs to form a union, develop nuclear weapons, and be the counterweight to a reunified China. This isn't a joke, btw.

You're deluded. Japan's economy, despite what it looks like on the outside, is declining - or at least stagnant. Why would South Korea, a growing economy, join Japan? In fact, Japan has more chance of merging with the Republic of China.

And DPRK will merge, hell yes, TO THE PRC.

I'd say, ASEAN-ex Singapore will probably have more chance of joining South Korea.

Singapore will probably choose to opt out - to its benefit, look at Switzerland, outside the EU.

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Originally Posted by yezhanquan View Post

Like it or not, a unified Korea requires the consent of the PRC. If the PRC is not sure that its interests are protected if such a thing happen, unification will not happen. Period.

Point taken on it not being a joke. Still, the PRC is sitting on the prize (mostly).
The PRC? Hm. Probably, unless you gut the DPRK out first. Which is what the US and South Korea are plannign anyway.

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Originally Posted by yezhanquan View Post
Seriously, the DPRK military is like the Myanmar junta. They want their riches, they will not share it and they will fight to the death for the right to hold onto it.

We Chinese have a saying for it: 人为财死,鸟为食亡. Literally "Man will die for wealth, and so will birds for food".
What riches, seriously? Their nukes? All South Korea needs to do is to end aid permanently to the DPRK, and they're doomed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by yezhanquan View Post
You're still operating on the basis that unification will come. From how I see it, there seems to be a hardening of attitudes in the South that unification is undesirable. Logistically and politically, the odds are against it so much that I probably will live to see it only if I go to 90 and above.

As for the North, their idea of unification is to change the South in their image. Wow.
Unification would happen if one side is defeated. That's really an acquisition, actually.
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Old 2010-11-30, 22:46   Link #10227
Sumeragi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Noctis Lucis View Post
You sure about that? China's population is 1.3 billion. Just mobilizing 10% of that in war is enough to put down Korea, Japan and the rest of ASEAN.
You seem to be forgetting something: PRC does not have the logistics or infrastructure to move even one million soldiers to Manchuria on a timely basis. For every man at the front, there needs to be the long chain of logistics: Which doesn't exist for the People's Liberation Army


Quote:
Originally Posted by Noctis Lucis View Post
You're deluded. Japan's economy, despite what it looks like on the outside, is declining - or at least stagnant. Why would South Korea, a growing economy, join Japan?.
Because Japan has the capital and technology that ROK needs to drive things further. Almost all the surplus ROK earns from trading are plowed into buying Japanese technology. A economic union would be benefitial to both.
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Old 2010-11-30, 23:00   Link #10228
Noctis Lucis
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
You seem to be forgetting something: PRC does not have the logistics or infrastructure to move even one million soldiers to Manchuria on a timely basis. For every man at the front, there needs to be the long chain of logistics: Which doesn't exist for the People's Liberation Army
Manchuria? What an outdated term. Anyways, given that it's China... never underestimate them.

Quote:
Because Japan has the capital and technology that ROK needs to drive things further. Almost all the surplus ROK earns from trading are plowed into buying Japanese technology. A economic union would be beneficial to both.
Not too sure about that! What does one do with Japan's NEETs and high unemployment?

The crazy woman from Alaska strikes again.
Quote:
Sarah Palin tells US government to hunt down 'anti-American operative' Julian Assange

December 1, 2010 - 2:02PM



Sarah Palin has called on the US government to hunt down WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange like an al-Qaeda or Taliban leader, calling him "an anti-American operative with blood on his hands".


In a post on her Facebook page, the former US Republican vice-presidential candidate wrote: "Assange is not a 'journalist', any more than the 'editor' of al-Qaeda's new English-language magazine Inspire is a 'journalist'."


"He is an anti-American operative with blood on his hands. His past posting of classified documents revealed the identity of more than 100 Afghan sources to the Taliban. Why was he not pursued with the same urgency we pursue al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders?"

She added that the activist website should have its financial assets frozen "just as we do to individuals who provide material support for terrorist organisations" and that "cyber tools" should be used to "permanently dismantle WikiLeaks".


The 46-year-old, who is known for her conservative views, questioned on Twitter why the US government couldn't "stop WikiLeaks' treasonous act", perhaps unaware that Mr Assange is not an American citizen, and that the activist website is hosted in Sweden with servers across the globe.


She also linked to a blog by William Kristol, the editor of the right-wing US magazine The Weekly Standard, who called for his country's government to "use our various assets to harass, snatch or neutralize Julian Assange and his collaborators, wherever they are".
"Congress can have emergency hearings - in closed session, if necessary - to find out if the executive branch has the necessary means to defeat WikiLeaks. If it doesn't, Congress can provide additional means and authorities to those that already exist," wrote Kristol, who served under former US president Ronald Reagan and former US vice-president Dan Quayle.


"But in either case, Congress can act, in an expeditious and bipartisan manner, to encourage and authorise the use by the executive branch of all necessary means to respond to and defeat WikiLeaks."


Kristol did not elaborate on what he meant by "all necessary means", although some US media have speculated that he and Mrs Palin could be calling for the US to " treat WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange as a target to be snatched off the streets somewhere by the CIA", The Christian Science Monitor wrote.


It is not the first time US politicians and commentators have called for action against Mr Assange.


Last month, the daughter of Senator John McCain, Sarah Palin's presidential running mate, said Mr Assange's release of military documents on Afghanistan and Iraq as "unAmerican".


"He looks like a James Bond villain. He harbours a lot of ill will towards America. To me he's a villain," Meghan McCain said, adding that Mr Assange was a "creepy rogue Swedish guy".


But while Mrs Palin slammed the Obama administration's "incompetent handling of this whole fiasco", the US Defence Secretary today played down the impact of WikiLeaks' latest documents' release, calling them embarrassing and awkward but only having a "fairly modest" impact on US foreign policy.


"Is this embarrassing? Yes. Is it awkward? Yes. Consequences for US foreign policy? I think fairly modest," Robert Gates said in a Pentagon press conference.


The US government is seeking to charge Mr Assange and other WikiLeaks representatives under its Espionage Act, although it is unclear whether such moves are possible.


A US defence lawyer specialising in intelligence cases, Mark Zaid, told Reuters it would be "very difficult for the US government to prosecute [Mr Assange] in the US for what he is doing".


Under US law, anyone charged would had to have been in contact with a foreign power and also provided them with secrets. Mr Assange has not been accused of doing either.


But former US Army intelligence analyst Bradley Manning, who is accused by his government of supplying WikiLeaks with some of the recently released documents and is being held in detention, already faces charges of leaking State Department and US military documents.

The US government has already introduced new security safeguards and reversed the increased sharing of sensitive documents post-9/11 in response to the leaks.
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Old 2010-12-01, 01:26   Link #10229
Kamui4356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
You seem to be forgetting something: PRC does not have the logistics or infrastructure to move even one million soldiers to Manchuria on a timely basis. For every man at the front, there needs to be the long chain of logistics: Which doesn't exist for the People's Liberation Army
They don't have to. They can trade land for time, build up a completely overwhelming force, and reclaim their land. Look at the Soviets in WWII for an example. If the US sides with China, which is likely in such a situation, the USN and PLN divert oil shipments coming through the strait of Malacca bound for Korea to China or sink the tankers. Hell, the PLN could likely close the strait to Korean traffic itself. Also, I should point out that North Korea would lack the infrastructure to invade across the northern border, considering their entire military is built to push south. That would have to be built up too. Do you think China is going to sit on its ass twiddling their thumbs while a newly unified Korea builds up a massive force on the border? Do you think the US is going to be ok with it and not tell them it's a bad idea?


Quote:
Because Japan has the capital and technology that ROK needs to drive things further. Almost all the surplus ROK earns from trading are plowed into buying Japanese technology. A economic union would be benefitial to both.
No, it wouldn't be beneficial to either. It'd risk hurting both nation's trade with China, if China feels threatened by the union. Like I said before, trade with China is far more important to these nations than trade with each other.
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Old 2010-12-01, 02:04   Link #10230
SaintessHeart
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Originally Posted by Kamui4356 View Post
No, it wouldn't be beneficial to either. It'd risk hurting both nation's trade with China, if China feels threatened by the union. Like I said before, trade with China is far more important to these nations than trade with each other.
To elaborate on this, China is the world's supplier of raw material, be it agricultural or metalwork (or even human beings if you disregard human rights from the business standpoint, though they compete with Bangladesh and India for that aspect).

You can't make anything without materials, so I am agreeing with Kamui on this.
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Old 2010-12-01, 02:15   Link #10231
Ascaloth
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Originally Posted by Kamui4356 View Post
They don't have to. They can trade land for time, build up a completely overwhelming force, and reclaim their land.
So, you're saying that China's macro will eventually overwhelm Korea's micro?

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Old 2010-12-01, 02:17   Link #10232
Noctis Lucis
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Originally Posted by Kamui4356 View Post
No, it wouldn't be beneficial to either. It'd risk hurting both nation's trade with China, if China feels threatened by the union. Like I said before, trade with China is far more important to these nations than trade with each other.
In the past, where the US was a reliable consumer, that would have been an option. But now, looking at the US, I must agree with the above.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
To elaborate on this, China is the world's supplier of raw material, be it agricultural or metalwork (or even human beings if you disregard human rights from the business standpoint, though they compete with Bangladesh and India for that aspect).

You can't make anything without materials, so I am agreeing with Kamui on this.
Watch out for Australia. It has a good amount of demand from China that if it killed all trade of raw mat'l to China, China would seriously be affected and be taken over by India.
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Old 2010-12-01, 03:56   Link #10233
MeoTwister5
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I remember that the last time Japan and Korea unified in military and economic expansionism, my great grandfather was executed for working with the American government in 1944. My grandfather has let go of it, but many others have not let go of the things uncontrolled nationalist expansionism has brought upon the world, including the Japanese, the Koreans and Asia itself.

The horrors and scars of militarist Japan is still rooted in the cultural psyche to this day. Unless they've forgotten, not way in hell will the Japanese let this happen again. The Chinese CERTAINLY have not forgotten, and the hate is still there.
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Old 2010-12-01, 04:23   Link #10234
Noctis Lucis
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Originally Posted by MeoTwister5 View Post
I remember that the last time Japan and Korea unified in military and economic expansionism, my great grandfather was executed for working with the American government in 1944. My grandfather has let go of it, but many others have not let go of the things uncontrolled nationalist expansionism has brought upon the world, including the Japanese, the Koreans and Asia itself.
Unified? Wasn't Korea ANNEXED BY FORCE by Japan then?
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Old 2010-12-01, 04:35   Link #10235
SaintessHeart
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Originally Posted by Ascaloth View Post
So, you're saying that China's macro will eventually overwhelm Korea's micro?

Probably not since the Chinese have never played Starcraft.
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Old 2010-12-01, 04:40   Link #10236
MeoTwister5
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Originally Posted by Noctis Lucis View Post
Unified? Wasn't Korea ANNEXED BY FORCE by Japan then?
Unification/annexation by force yes, but together nonetheless. Korea though was more like an unwilling participant and there are still sectors who still dislike Japan's involvement.
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Old 2010-12-01, 05:02   Link #10237
Noctis Lucis
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Originally Posted by MeoTwister5 View Post
Unification/annexation by force yes, but together nonetheless. Korea though was more like an unwilling participant and there are still sectors who still dislike Japan's involvement.
Makes sense.

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Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
Probably not since the Chinese have never played Starcraft.
Ah, Starcraft. That game that's filled with nothing but Korean. The language, that is. In fact, it's said that to play Starcraft, you'd better learn Korean first. Now I know why every CC in Singapore's offering Korean.
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Old 2010-12-01, 05:56   Link #10238
yezhanquan
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Originally Posted by MeoTwister5 View Post
Unification/annexation by force yes, but together nonetheless. Korea though was more like an unwilling participant and there are still sectors who still dislike Japan's involvement.
I still remember that phrase in my history classes: "Korea is like a dagger pointing at Japan's heart." A friendly Korea is definitely in Japan's interest.
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Old 2010-12-01, 06:16   Link #10239
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I still remember that phrase in my history classes: "Korea is like a dagger pointing at Japan's heart." A friendly Korea is definitely in Japan's interest.
And China's. As they also say, a co-operative Korea makes for a productive China.
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Old 2010-12-01, 06:22   Link #10240
yezhanquan
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Originally Posted by Noctis Lucis View Post
And China's. As they also say, a co-operative Korea makes for a productive China.
Let's not forget Russia. Any trouble in the Far East is not taken lightly by the Kremlin.
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