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Old 2010-12-04, 16:42   Link #19401
lambdabern
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I have a question.if yasu did plan everything beforehand as a fake murder case how would he convince everyone to play dead and just look at their relatives cry in sadness and despair for a reason as cheap as yasu wanting to play a crime novel game with battler?make all 16-15 people except for battler lie just to test him?and what would they gain?would that not risk kinzo's death being known by the relatives?or would they already know?natsuhi would never allow that.I mean even ryukishi wouldn't go that far,it wouldn't be a crime anymore.and if kyrie simply used that to murder then how is battler responsible?just because he did not return dooesn't justify yasu's games.nor does it directly help kyrie.and i am quite sure that battler would not just say you were right beatrice for something so stupid.or perhaps he calls her dumb for risking such a game.anyway i just can't put the pieces in place.
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Old 2010-12-04, 16:48   Link #19402
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Lots of money dangling above their faces apparently.
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Old 2010-12-04, 16:53   Link #19403
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I thought about it a bit, and here is my final theory:

19 years ago, Beatrice II gave birth to the incest-baby. Kinzo, ashamed of his actions, gave his baby to Natsuhi (since she seemed to be incapable of having her own child). Out of pride, Natsuhi caused the baby to fall off the cliff. Genji takes the baby and gives it to Fukuin. We all know this much.

Here is where this actually can explain the murders on Rokkenjima:

At Fukuin, Yasu feels inferior to the others so she imagines up an imaginary friend named Shannon. Shannon is always nice to her and is the perfect servant.

Yasu is always losing things, so she blames it all on "Beatrice" (actually portrayed as Gaap). Beatrice befriends her, but Yasu eventually becomes more responsible with her own things.


This next part is important:

Kumasawa introduces Yasu to the mystery genre. Yasu starts reading more and more and eventually becomes a mystery fan. She starts stealing the other servants' items and creating "impossible closed rooms". This makes her feel powerful, like she had just used magic. At this point, Yasu decides to be a witch: she takes on the personality of Beatrice but at the same time becomes Shannon.

Evidence:
Kumasawa = Virgilia, and is a mentor to Beatrice. If you believe Yasu (Shannon) to be Beatrice, then this fits: Kumasawa can be considered a mentor to Yasu in terms of the introduction of mystery into Yasu's life.
Shannon is as clumsy as Yasu is.

Furthermore:

Battler is also known to have read lots of mystery novels. When Shannon and Battler met, they talked about mystery a lot. They developed a special relationship with each other: not necessarily one of love, but one of extended friendship, so to speak.

Of course, this causes George to be envious of Battler; Battler may not have had any legitimate romance with Shannon, but George sees it this way.

Battler's sin is indeed not returning to Rokkenjima; indirectly, however. Battler made a promise to Shannon to return so they could continue talking about mystery and giving each other puzzles. Since Battler does not return, she becomes lonely. After all, a true friend of hers does not return to Rokkenjima.

This brings us to 1986:

Beatrice remains dormant inside Shannon until Battler returns to Rokkenjima. Battler meets Kanon (who is actually Shannon) before he meets Shannon. This causes Kanon to revert back into Shannon and meet Battler. Beatrice is awakened, once more, and tries to give Battler another mystery.

Shannon plans a series of closed-room murders that follow the Epitaph. This is a sort of real-life "And Then There Were None"; she wants to play a game against Battler, essentially. She gets everyone else to play along (or at least the people that are required to play along) so Battler is the only one that is not aware of the plot.

Kyrie notices that Shannon will coordinate the murders. She also knows that nobody will question the crime scenes because they know that the murders are fake. Therefore, Kyrie uses this to her advantage: she actually kills the people that fake their deaths.


Why do the family members continue the farce after the First Twilight? Because nobody except Kyrie knows that anybody has actually died! They continue the game, unaware that any real murders have occured.

This goes on: Shannon tests Battler as a detective. Then the bomb goes off and kills everybody
Evidence:
Meta-Beatrice is just a physical representation of Shannon's love of mystery (Gaap-Beatrice in 1976). Ronove is Genji and Virgilia is Kumasawa: they were both mentors to Beatrice in 1976.
EP6 proves that it is possible to coordinate fake murders with everybody in the family. After all, ALL of the Ushiromiyas played along with the plan to fool Erika! Why couldn't they do the same to Battler?


What do you think? Am I on the right track?
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Old 2010-12-04, 16:57   Link #19404
Used Can
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lambdabern View Post
if yasu did plan everything beforehand as a fake murder case how would he convince everyone to play dead and just look at their relatives cry in sadness and despair for a reason as cheap as yasu wanting to play a crime novel game with battler?
All of them need money, and not merely for greedy reasons. All of them have got ropes around their necks. So, they seriously need money.

EP5 and EP6 have made it rather clear that, given certain circumstances, as childish as it may seem, pretty much everyone in the island would be willing to participate in this game of fake murders.
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Old 2010-12-04, 17:11   Link #19405
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Spoiler for size:
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Last edited by chronotrig; 2010-12-04 at 17:24.
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Old 2010-12-04, 17:29   Link #19406
Used Can
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Spoiler for size:
If by "red guts scene" you mean the scene with Yasu flipping, then I'm sure it must have taken place after Yasu solved the epitaph, and therefore, after Kanon was created. She was wearing Beatrice's dress, which she didn't get until she solved the Epitaph. In addition, the fact she was talking openly with Genji and Nanjo, and the fact she was told about this injury makes me believe it took place some time after Kinzo's death.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Spoiler for size:
This doesn't add up, I think. If Yasu was to be brought up as a boy, then why did she seem to have been treated like a girl her whole life - at the very least, Yasu seems to think of herself as one, given the different portrayals of herself. Moreover, why was she made to wear Beatrice's dress by the time she met Kinzo, if he was expecting a boy? Not to mention that, unlike other moments in EP7 in which Yasu's sex is kept ambiguous, Kinzo does refer to Yasu as Beatrice's daughter.

Spoiler:
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Old 2010-12-04, 17:30   Link #19407
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@Chronotrig: Wow, that makes Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo the biggest assholes in the entire story.

I love it.
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Old 2010-12-04, 17:33   Link #19408
Jan-Poo
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Quote:
Battler is also known to have read lots of mystery novels. When Shannon and Battler met, they talked about mystery a lot. They developed a special relationship with each other: not necessarily one of love, but one of extended friendship, so to speak.
Until this point, it's practically all an established fact.
From there onward it's pretty close but you still need some adjustments. For example the various bank accounts and the messages in the bottle prove that Beatrice planned the whole thing since a long time. She couldn't have done all that in less than a month, and I suspect it's even more.

I'm not sure about Kyrie.


Quote:
@Chronotrig: Wow, that makes Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo the biggest assholes in the entire story.

I love it.
Yeah that's why Genji asked Yasu to put on that dress, because Genji wanted Kinzo to think Yasu as a boy!
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Old 2010-12-04, 17:38   Link #19409
DaBackpack
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Until this point, it's practically all an established fact.
From there onward it's pretty close but you still need some adjustments. For example the various bank accounts and the messages in the bottle prove that Beatrice planned the whole thing since a long time. She couldn't have done all that in less than a month, and I suspect it's even more.

I'm not sure about Kyrie.
Easily fixed:

Shannon meant to do this the year Battler left, but had lots of time to develop her mystery further. I mean it's a yearly conference, so she could have been planning this for a long time but didn't have the chance to execute it until Battler returned.

The other problem is "Why didn't the family members notice that people actually died?"

Well, maybe they died after the crime scenes were investigated.
But that makes all of the Red Truth in the entire series bunk, except for those that explicitly stated otherwise.

Or:
They just thought Shannon did a really good job with the special effects. After all, the only deaths that can be determined by sight are those in EP6, and everything changes in the Core arcs.
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Old 2010-12-04, 17:46   Link #19410
Jan-Poo
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I think Battler isn't the only reason of what happened in 1986. Maybe he isn't even one of the reasons at all, he's rather the random element that shouldn't have been there. He wasn't supposed to be there, his coming back after six years was sudden and unexpected. Shannon had already lost hope on that, and that's why she ended up with George.

I believe that the "love trial" is the real reason. And that means it involves all the cousins. Of course once Battler came back he was also added in the picture, but that made everything even more complicated.
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Old 2010-12-04, 17:48   Link #19411
CrystalStarlight95
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Spoiler for Episode 7:
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Old 2010-12-04, 17:48   Link #19412
chronotrig
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Used Can View Post
If by "red guts scene" you mean the scene with Yasu flipping, then I'm sure it must have taken place after Yasu solved the epitaph, and therefore, after Kanon was created. She was wearing Beatrice's dress, which she didn't get until she solved the Epitaph. In addition, the fact she was talking openly with Genji and Nanjo, and the fact she was told about this injury makes me believe it took place some time after Kinzo's death.
Actually, in that red guts scene, we don't see Yasu at all, just Genji and Nanjo.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Used Can View Post
This doesn't add up, I think. If Yasu was to be brought up as a boy, then why did she seem to have been treated like a girl her whole life - at the very least, Yasu seems to think of herself as one, given the different portrayals of herself.
This would mean telling an elementary-age girl that she has to act like a boy, and hope that she not only decides to play along, but never slips up or tells anyone your secret. That would be an incredible risk. In other words, if Genji is scheming something, he can't let Yasu in on the scheme until she's a bit older and comfortable living on the island. And he'd have to let her in on some secret to convince her that she was born a boy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Used Can View Post
Not to mention that, unlike other moments in EP7 in which Yasu's sex is kept ambiguous, Kinzo does refer to Yasu as Beatrice's daughter.

Spoiler:
That's not exactly what Kinzo says though. He says that Yasu reminds him of 'that mother and daughter', or Beatrice 1 and Beatrice 2. Genji does once say "she solved the epitaph all by herself" before Kinzo tells Lion that she's his child, but every other line in that section refers to Lion as 'the child', not the son or daughter. While Beatrice 2 is referred to as Beatrice 1's daughter.
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Last edited by chronotrig; 2010-12-04 at 18:12.
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Old 2010-12-04, 17:50   Link #19413
Jan-Poo
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Originally Posted by CrystalStarlight95 View Post
Spoiler for Episode 7:
I could tell you, but why ruining the surprise? You'll probably understand before the end of the translated patch.
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Old 2010-12-04, 17:53   Link #19414
CrystalStarlight95
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I could tell you, but why ruining the surprise? You'll probably understand before the end of the translated patch.
Yes yes, no more spoilers, Ima just keep reading!! !! Mah finger's cramped from scrolling through so much, lol XD.
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Old 2010-12-04, 19:14   Link #19415
Renall
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
"two side of the same coin", plus both Bern and Will totally tell Lion that s/he's Yasu in the other "fragments".

Even provided that Yasu actually isn't Lion (which I strongly doubt) Will quite clearly doesn't know and believes they are the same. But there's simply no way that Will is wrong.
Will is known to jump to conclusions. Just because he sounds right doesn't mean his conclusions are actually valid deductions. They might stand up in court, but the mystery story holds itself to an even harsher burden of proof than a criminal trial.

Yasu cannot be considered a reliable source on his/her physical condition and birth circumstances. It is simply not possible for him/her to know. If anyone does know, it has to be Genji and Nanjo. If Genji and Nanjo were characters established to be trustworthy beyond all suspicion, we could take their word for it. But Genji and Nanjo are two of the most secretive characters in the entire story, and Nanjo provably lies perhaps dozens of times in Umineko.

So while Yasu has no reason not to trust them, surely we should wonder whether everything they've told this poor kid is quite accurate.
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Old 2010-12-04, 21:18   Link #19416
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I'd add that Will wouldn't be wrong in calling them two sides of the same coin. If Lion survives, "Yasu" would never go to Rokkenjima. So the character we know as "Yasu" would never exist. That way, even if they are different people, neither can live if the other survives.

Also, if Yasu never learns that she isn't actually Lion (she keeps saying furniture until the end, so this is probably possible), then she wouldn't write that fact into the message bottles.
In other words, inside the fictional stories, Yasu might actually be Lion. And Clair seems to represent Yasu in the fictional stories, since she talks about being responsible for the murders.
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Old 2010-12-05, 00:07   Link #19417
Jan-Poo
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It simply that chrono. Lion believes that Yasu is a "himself/herself" of another reality, and Will lets her/him believe it. No I can go as far as to say that Will definitely believes that Yasu and Lion are the same person. That's because he knows that Lion seeing the past game records would suffer. Why would s/he suffer if all was done by a complete stranger?

You are really wasting your time, this matter is absolutely clear, it shouldn't even be argued.

And Renall, Will deductions do not "sound right", they simply are right because the author wants them to be right. You still didn't understand Ryuukishi's style after all these episodes? How many times you need to make the same mistake before realizing that the more we approach the end the more he's being straight forward in the exposure of the facts?
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Old 2010-12-05, 01:15   Link #19418
Used Can
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Actually, in that red guts scene, we don't see Yasu at all, just Genji and Nanjo.
My bad, I think I mixed the scene with Beatrice 2 right before with Yasu's; however, two big points still stand:

1. She's meeting Genji and Nanjo. I don't think she had spoken this casually with them before solving the Epitaph. Also, unless my impression is wrong, this seemed to have taken place in Kinzo's study.
2. Right after the scene in which Yasu met Kinzo, she never displayed any sort of furniture complex. What's more, she was still saying she'd wait for Battler.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
This would mean telling an elementary-age girl that she has to act like a boy, and hope that she not only decides to play along, but never slips up or tells anyone your secret. That would be an incredible risk. In other words, if Genji is scheming something, he can't let Yasu in on the scheme until she's a bit older and comfortable living on the island. And he'd have to let her in on some secret to convince her that she was born a boy.
I don't understand your point. If I'm understanding it correctly, your idea is that Genji and Nanjo probably put a penis in order to convince Yasu's she's a boy, right? So, if she thinks she's a boy, why would she slip up? That doesn't make any sense. Also, putting a fake penis on a girl won't make her brain suddenly start releasing androgens in the same way that a real boy would. She'll still be getting oestrogens and progestogens in the same fashion a girl does, once she hits puberty. Genji and Nanjo have no way to tell the effects those will have on her. For all the know, she could end up with a very feminine figure, especially with things like big boobs, which would be rather hard to hide.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
That's not exactly what Kinzo says though. He says that Yasu reminds him of 'that mother and daughter', or Beatrice 1 and Beatrice 2. Genji does once say "she solved the epitaph all by herself" before Kinzo tells Lion that she's his child, but every other line in that section refers to Lion as 'the child', not the son or daughter. While Beatrice 2 is referred to as Beatrice 1's daughter.
My bad again, I read it on a different way. Anyway, why would Kinzo expect a boy's voice to resemble his (the boy's) mother's, even less his face? Also, if Genji wanted Kinzo to think of her as a boy, why dress her as Beatrice? Yasu basically lived her whole life as a girl, even by the time she met Kinzo, she was dressed as a woman. I don't see how posing as a man would factor in any of these.

Moreover, why are you assuming Genji wanted Yasu to be the next head? All Kinzo wanted was his child - Beatrice's child. As long as he could meet his child, that was redemption for him. In addition, this is Beatrice's child we're speaking of. Do you think he'd really care about her sex? This will come down purely to opinion, I know. Personally, I think he wouldn't.
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Old 2010-12-05, 03:46   Link #19419
AuraTwilight
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Infact, I think we can say for sure he wouldn't. Lion's sex aside, he has a masculine gender identity.
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Old 2010-12-05, 06:14   Link #19420
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Would you call it masculine? I know Lion is not the most... "kawaii" type of person, like your average anime girl (not only in anime, but even from my own experience, Japanese girls tend to have a rather cute behaviour, to some extent), but I wouldn't know if I'd call that a masculine behaviour, even less masculine gender identity. In fact, what sort of grown up male sticks out his tongue to other men's backs to show his dissatisfaction? As for Lion's behaviour, I think she's on the serious side. In fact, for some reason, whenever I read Lion's lines, I kept on thinking of Kyrie and Natsuhi. Lion seems to be the goal driven type, whilst also minding her manners and the prestige of the family she comes from. In addition, even if Lion's garments are not particularly feminine, I wouldn't call them too masculine either. In fact, that's yet another aspect in which she reminds me of Kyrie.

I think Will's description as "no-nonsense sort of girl" fits the bill in this case.
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