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Old 2010-12-06, 17:37   Link #19521
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
His "underestimation" of his children is also entirely the context of scenes in which Kinzo cannot possibly exist (his ep2 rant, the ep4 conference scene). He may not have thought them quite as stupid as he portrays them, and moreover the story itself may portray them as dumber than they are (especially Krauss).
That's not actually true. It's fairly clear from Eva's EP3 flashback that he thinks Krauss is incompetent even many years in the past. If there's any evidence that he didn't actually think them incompetent, that would be a problem for my theory. But I'm not sure there is.

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Then how did they solve it almost immediately in Lion's world? It makes no sense. They're suddenly not okay with an arrangement that was not really protested up to this point, then it all randomly explodes, and to calm everyone down Kinzo takes a ridiculous risk when he could just shout down every single one of his children as he is reputed to have been easily able to do? It's absurd.
This is a good question, but it has nothing to do with the theory I mentioned. That problem exists regardless, since we know it took the family years to solve the epitaph in Yasu's world.

First off, how do we know that they solved it easily? It's only because Bern told us. And, Bern says that Kyrie and Rudolf were the culprits in Lion's world and in Yasu's world. I don't think we can take her word for that, so exactly how far can we trust her?

Also, the key might be the fact that the siblings start working together only if they're faced with an outside party getting all the gold. Before the family conference, each one wanted all the gold to themselves, so they didn't help each other. But when either Lion or Beatrice rises as an outside threat, they stand together and share hints. It seems fairly likely to me that Kinzo wasn't planning for this to happen when he first wrote the epitaph.
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Old 2010-12-06, 17:43   Link #19522
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I have only read up to the 50% mark for ep7 so this may be a stupid question but...
Could be-yasu-on not have wanted to solve the epitaph?
When s/he did solve it, s/he no longer wanted whatever it was that the epitaph gave her and decided to stay quiet about the answer, wanting someone else, anyone at all, to solve it and take his/her place as solver of the epitaph?
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Old 2010-12-06, 17:45   Link #19523
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Oh, I agree with you that Bern isn't trustworthy but there seems to be some dissent on that. If Bern's stretching or fabricating events, we don't have to worry about the inconsistency, but that was kind of my point.

And I agree that the adults solve it most easily when they cooperate, as cooperation and hint-sharing are the key to every epitaph solution we see. All of them. However, that raises questions of fairness and of what Kinzo really intended to happen.

Also bear in mind the adults do not come to the 1986 conference for the gold (which, Krauss aside, they don't know really exists), nor to settle the headship question (in fact, giving up any conflict over the headship is part of their bargaining ploy against Krauss). They come looking for money. They don't care where the money comes from. The notion that the gold is real and can resolve their issues only comes up when they find the gold or are given proof of its existence.

Also, Krauss should have no reason whatsoever to participate in any dissent in Lion's world. He'd be getting all of the benefits and none of the downsides with his "son" in charge, even if he knows Lion isn't really his son (because the rest of the world will not know this). That's not to say he did, but if he didn't, then he wasn't helping anyone solve it.
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Old 2010-12-06, 17:52   Link #19524
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@Renall Thank you for answering my question. Man, secret machine on the chapel, now that sounds exciting! Let's go to Rokkenjima and try it out .
...Wait, the bomb probably blew up the chapel too, huh? -_- Damn.

Quote:
Oh. Thank you. Hmm... this is an odd world then.

Overall, does it give any beneficial clues?
I remember this part, I never got it because Will continually asked where everyone sat at the table. I can't quite recall EXACTLY what conclusion he came to, just that somehow Trollkastel mixed two kakeras together, messing up a few things. Like some people's memories are of how Lion didn't exist, but wait, there's Lion right now! Who knew?

Btw, did anybody notice Lion's name? Lion rhymes with Mion and Shion~ XD
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Old 2010-12-06, 17:55   Link #19525
chronotrig
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Well, what Bern tells us about Lion's world is interesting on many levels. Personally, I don't think she's capable of lying through other people's perspectives. By that, I mean that when someone else tells a story thanks to the Theatergoing Authority, the only lies that can appear are ones that they themselves tell or other lies that they've swallowed and believe in. Though we do know that Bern is able to omit information by making the pieces lose interest in Will.

I think the Tea Party is the same. Bern took Eva's heavily biased and confused perspective, and filled the blanks of Eva's knowledge with Eva's imagination. If Eva was sufficiently confused to imagine the horrible sort of tale Bern wanted to show, then we can say that Bern was responsible for the lie being shown. But I don't think it's fair for her to just make stuff up herself.

However, the crime in Lion's world is the one time that we see things from no one's perspective (except for a few vague seconds from Lion's). Bern just tells us what's supposed to have happened. It's a story that's based off Eva's game, which was almost certainly different from the way we were shown it.

Eva thought that Kyrie did the murders. Eva thought that Kyrie's motive was money. Eva thought that the bomb switch was in the clock. I personally doubt that all three of these are true. But Bern's story about Lion's world depends on them all.
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Old 2010-12-06, 18:16   Link #19526
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Originally Posted by Ronove View Post
Oh. Thank you. Hmm... this is an odd world then.

Overall, does it give any beneficial clues?
Ange would sit directly to Jessica's right if Battler never returned to Rokkenjima. Ange would sit in front of Battler actually had both of them been present during the family conferences. If Lion, Battler and Ange where present then Battler would be in front of George and Ange would be in front of Maria. My other point stands, it would ruin the illusion of the two kings facing each other unless George was the culprit in the case

e-Fixed a logic error

Last edited by Cao Ni Ma; 2010-12-06 at 19:11.
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Old 2010-12-06, 18:45   Link #19527
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
However, the crime in Lion's world is the one time that we see things from no one's perspective (except for a few vague seconds from Lion's). Bern just tells us what's supposed to have happened. It's a story that's based off Eva's game, which was almost certainly different from the way we were shown it.
My main problem is Bern going more or less "well, it'll turn out the same way in the end." Really. Nevermind that it's quite implausible given the different circumstances.

Think about this. What are we being told here, mostly? "This was inevitably going to happen. The starting conditions do not prevent it even if they are vastly different. You don't ever get to be happy."

Who is telling us this?

Bernkastel. Wait, Bern!? Really? Really? REALLY!?

The Witch of Miracles is coming down on the side of inevitable fate? Hold the phone! Whaaaaat? The one whose entire genesis of character is about fighting that is sitting there telling Claire and Lion that they're invariably doomed? Even at her most sadistic, is Bernkastel of all people going to take that stance? She's either fallen into Lambdadelta's trap so hard she doesn't even know it or she's actually trying to accomplish something entirely different after all.
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Old 2010-12-06, 19:46   Link #19528
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Btw, did anybody notice Lion's name? Lion rhymes with Mion and Shion~ XD
Which means the "Beatrice incest" story is a lie! Lion/Yasu is actually a stolen Sonozaki baby! Holy shit, you just solved Umineko.

Quote:
The Witch of Miracles is coming down on the side of inevitable fate? Hold the phone! Whaaaaat? The one whose entire genesis of character is about fighting that is sitting there telling Claire and Lion that they're invariably doomed? Even at her most sadistic, is Bernkastel of all people going to take that stance? She's either fallen into Lambdadelta's trap so hard she doesn't even know it or she's actually trying to accomplish something entirely different after all.
Or she's a total asshole.

"As the Witch of Miracles, I know that miracles absolutely do not exist."
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Old 2010-12-06, 19:50   Link #19529
Cao Ni Ma
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Originally Posted by CrystalStarlight95 View Post
Btw, did anybody notice Lion's name? Lion rhymes with Mion and Shion~ XD
If you combine Eva, Ange and Lion you get Evangelion
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Old 2010-12-06, 19:58   Link #19530
Renall
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Or she's a total asshole.

"As the Witch of Miracles, I know that miracles absolutely do not exist."
Except when they do. Which she should also already know.
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Old 2010-12-06, 20:02   Link #19531
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
The Witch of Miracles is coming down on the side of inevitable fate? Hold the phone! Whaaaaat? The one whose entire genesis of character is about fighting that is sitting there telling Claire and Lion that they're invariably doomed? Even at her most sadistic, is Bernkastel of all people going to take that stance? She's either fallen into Lambdadelta's trap so hard she doesn't even know it or she's actually trying to accomplish something entirely different after all.
Well, I think there's a good chance that she's telling the truth here. After all, while the inside of a cat box can change depending on what you know, the outside of it never changes. So, if person X knows that the explosion happened on the island, but they can't find any direct evidence to tell them about Ushiromiya family history, either the Lion story or the Yasu story could be true to the best of their knowledge. Writer Y, who knows the truth, could tell X either story, and X wouldn't be able to disagree. But the fact that the explosion happened and no survivors are found (in EP1) is supported by plenty of evidence, so person X might accept that as absolute truth and reject any stories with survivors.

It's like in a game. If the Game Master says "everyone will die" with the red truth, then you can still make either the Lion story or the Yasu story work, but you can't change the fact that everyone dies in the end.

This is partly the reason why I'm suspicious about calling Ange's world Rokkenjima Prime. I doubt there's a single person in the world who knows of the crime but doesn't know that Eva survived. So, most of the games we're shown could easily be proven wrong. The cat box model seems to work better if there are no survivors.

Though, either way, it clearly feels like something is missing.
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Old 2010-12-06, 22:32   Link #19532
AuraTwilight
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Except when they do. Which she should also already know.
It's a quote she made. Maybe she just forgot, or some shit.
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Old 2010-12-06, 23:53   Link #19533
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Well, by definition, a miracle can't happen unless the situation is impossible to be solved by any natural means (i.e. by deduction). So Bern is, um, just helping things along toward that end...
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Old 2010-12-07, 01:29   Link #19534
AuraTwilight
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I have had this pet line of thought that from the beginning, Bern was trying to goad a happy ending by placing herself as the ultimate bad guy.
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Old 2010-12-07, 03:24   Link #19535
ijriims
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Why would Rudolf's behavior be any different in Lion's world? Assume for the moment that no one but Rudolf influenced Rudolf's attempts to get Battler back, as I see no evidence to suggest otherwise. Yet in Lion's world it doesn't work, and in Yasu's world it does.
That's right. Rudolf's action is the key of return of Battler in Yasu's world (but the precondition is the death of Battler's two grandparents, so Rudolf would have the opportunity) . So it is sufficient if Rudolf bent his knee in the funeral, Battler would come back.

Either that Battler's grandparents did not die before 1986 Oct, or something affects Rudolf not to beg his son to come back.

Unless you want to argue that there is a substantial chance that even if Rudolf bent his knee to ask for Battler's return, Battler would not do so.

--------------------------------------------

I think Kinzo 's preference when he built the chapel was: 1. Beatrice's male offspring as successor. 2. Beatrice's female offstring as sucessor. 3. The four siblings as successor, if someone did solve the epitaph. 4. Leave nothing, if nothing above happens.

However, since he believed that the chance for 1 and 2 to happen is quite low, so he prepare the chapel for the 3rd scenario mainly.

And then in Lion's world, when the siblings oppose the succession of Lion, Kinzo's preference was: 1. Lion as successor right now, and the enjoyment of ridiculing the siblings. 2. Someone other than Lion solved the epitaph.

However, because of his pride in Lion, he believed 2 would not happen. So he just use the epitaph to test all of them.
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Old 2010-12-07, 05:19   Link #19536
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
This is partly the reason why I'm suspicious about calling Ange's world Rokkenjima Prime. I doubt there's a single person in the world who knows of the crime but doesn't know that Eva survived. So, most of the games we're shown could easily be proven wrong. The cat box model seems to work better if there are no survivors.

Though, either way, it clearly feels like something is missing.
This is true, and it also makes me wonder what on earth Hachijou is thinking. If Eva survived, then shouldn't this be written into every game after EP3 as well?
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Old 2010-12-07, 05:40   Link #19537
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Not necessarily; The Fictions were never meant to show things as the writer believed them to actually happen, just have pieces of the truth wrapped in fantasy, whether it's Eva dying, or maids throwing around magic spells.
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Old 2010-12-07, 08:08   Link #19538
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I know you guys just don't like the idea. But I'd like to point out that even before I started reading the Tea party I've been thinking already that if the Volcano theory was right, then the Rokkenjima incident would have to happen even in Lion's world.
I'll tell you more, at the very time it was said it was still October 4 1986 I thought: "they are all going to die anyway pretty soon".

Plus, Renall, you made a very good point. Why would Bernkastel consider it an inevitable occurrence? If the chance isn't 0 she can definitely find a kakera where no one will trigger the bomb, or where the bomb doesn't exist to begin with. But people with freedom of will are one thing, a volcano is completely different matter. The only way Bern would consider something "inevitable" is if the chance to prevent it was exactly zero.
I guess you could argue that even a natural disaster could be affected by variables, due to the butterfly effect. But how many geological eras she'd need to browse to prevent this particular disaster?
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Old 2010-12-07, 08:21   Link #19539
Cao Ni Ma
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Technically yeah any natural disaster is possible the only reason a bomb was more likely was do to Kinzo being in the military. But a volcano triggering a seismic movement is also possible, doesn't need to be in the island either. A gas leak causing an explosion, a meteor falling on the island an attack by North Korea, ANYTHING is still possible.
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Old 2010-12-07, 09:15   Link #19540
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Something like a volcano is definitely possible, but wouldn't that be an accident rather than a crime? Of course, one could say one or several crimes occurred before the accident, but that wouldn't change the fact that the final piece in this apparent mystery would be an accident and not a crime, wouldn't it?

I don't know, after Shkanon, I do not think anything can really surprise me. After all, something like a volcano could be the perfect excuse for R07 to go through a "See? Everyone was good!" sort of resolution.
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