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Old 2010-12-07, 09:41   Link #19541
Renall
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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
I have had this pet line of thought that from the beginning, Bern was trying to goad a happy ending by placing herself as the ultimate bad guy.
Now that would be funny, if the first thing she basically ever said (that she was here to help, sorta) was basically true.

Also, one reason Alliance through Dawn don't show Eva surviving (well, technically neither End nor Dawn show her dying either) may be that Hachijou (or whoever) was trying to "push it." Featherine and Hachijou both seem to share an almost twisted interest in just how far a story can be taken off the beaten path yet still be considered to hold the core truths of the message bottle stories. Since the message bottles don't depict Eva surviving, it's not necessary that they actually conform to anyone's survival.

Also: Bear in mind that "Rokkenjima Prime" is just a theoretical concept for the "real world" within the Umineko framework. We've never seen it, and we don't know what it looks like. People seem to think Ange's 1998 is believed to be that; I don't think most people who subscribe to fiction theories believe that. I do think, and I think most do think, that Rokkenjima Prime is similar to Ange's 1998, but it may not be as similar as we think. I do believe that Eva's public survival is a condition of R-Prime, if only because it's conspicuously happened twice now and we've only ever seen one Ange background (if Eva doesn't survive, Ange living to 18 seems quite unlikely anyway).

I also think we're being bashed over the head with Battler's survival, which didn't provably happen in any episode (though in ep7 he just vanishes and in every other episode but ep3 he's still technically alive at the time of the incident). It's possible that in R-Prime he did survive but didn't show himself, but that would create a host of questions. On the other hand, if he did publicly survive, Ange's 1998 cannot be R-Prime.
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Old 2010-12-07, 09:54   Link #19542
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I think Ryuukishi is definitely the kind of author that would play "the game of the three cards". The concept is basically:

-show three cards face down
-tell the sucker that one of the three cards is the right one
-keep the real right card up your sleeve.

This is a very good strategy to keep someone wondering about a solution without letting him having any chance of finding the right answer. You basically just make people think about which among three solutions is the right one, while the real solution is a fourth one.

This is basically what I think Ryuukishi planned, except there were only two cards.

From the very beginning, he never gave us any assurance that this story was a mystery. Rather it showed us two cards: anti-mystery and anti-fantasy. So he made us wonder for quite a lot of time if this was a mystery or fantasy, as if these were the only two available options. In the beginning he showed us the evil side of fantasy, so everyone was kind made to react to fantasy as the evil to defeat. However in the Umineko Chiru we suddenly see the evil side of mystery, and the main character switches to the fantasy side.

So is this story a fantasy or a mystery? I say neither. The right solution is the third one. It's all the result of a tragic incident that wiped out a whole family in a single day, and because of some incredible circumstances it gave birth to a plethora of discussions conjectures and theories about crazy murders, conspiracies and even esoteric interpretations.

My main point to support this theory is the fact that Erika never even tried to find a real culprit. In EP5 from the very beginning she tried to frame Natsuhi while being perfectly aware that she wasn't the one. In EP6 she aimed to a logic error from the very beginning.
Why would someone who flaunts so much her brain cells and only lives to prove that she's right would resort to such cheap methods? My answer is: because there isn't a culprit.
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Old 2010-12-07, 09:56   Link #19543
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^^^^^^^
e- There is a mystery novel where an overzealous detective went about sleuthing to solve a crime, after he connects all the pieces he goes about on the diner table to present who the culprit is. One of the persons dining there says that sounds great and all, the problem is that the person the detective picked as the culprit wasnt actually the culprit. That the killer was in fact himself and goes about telling us how he committed the apparent crime.

I want this to be a mystery but not one bounded by the normal conceptions of who commits the crime and why, the game has beaten into our head that its either greed, love or revenge. I want neither of these to be the reason for the (if there really was) crime in Rokkenjima.


Regarding Battler Surviving

I would be very disappointed if Battler survived the events in Rokkenjima and Ange still got to have the horrible upbringing she suffered. The whole idea of him being Akamusa and not actually going back to Ange pisses me off and it would need to have a cop out like him getting AMNESIA for him to not look like a total ass.

Last edited by Cao Ni Ma; 2010-12-07 at 10:10.
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Old 2010-12-07, 10:16   Link #19544
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I doubt he's Amakusa (if he is he's a dick or has stupid amnesia). If he's alive, he better have a damn good reason for not returning. However, I think there are possible reasons why he wouldn't or couldn't.

Plus, is Ange's 1998 the real 1998? Is the Ange we're shown what the "real" Ushiromiya Ange was like? We can't be so sure. Our Ange is the sad Ange who lost her whole family and was distant from her aunt. Who can say for certain that's what her life was like, besides Ange herself?
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Old 2010-12-07, 10:50   Link #19545
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I doubt he's Amakusa (if he is he's a dick or has stupid amnesia). If he's alive, he better have a damn good reason for not returning. However, I think there are possible reasons why he wouldn't or couldn't.
Yeah, it's true that there are a few reasons why he couldn't "come back". If we assume that he has no idea who the culprit was, Eva, the Sumadera family and Okonogi are all prime suspects. If Battler, a teenage boy, thinks he can easily take on giant organizations like that, which have already proven themselves capable of carrying out and covering up the Rokkenjima murders (in his eyes), then he's a bit more foolhardy than we thought.

The papers have reported his death, which means he can move in absolute secrecy. He has time to train overseas and build up his skills. Time to sneak into Eva's organization as a different person and eventually grab a place as Ange's bodyguard. Time even to get in Okonogi's good graces enough that the assassination of Ange is tasked to him, possibly. All told, 12 years is a very short time to accomplish all of this.

Of course, he could just tell Ange what he was planning, but remember that Ange was just a little girl for most of this time. While Eva was alive, she would have no reason to let Ange die, but if Battler told Ange his secret and she let it slip to someone else, both he and Ange could be in serious trouble. By keeping his plan to himself, he was minimizing her risk and removing the burden from her. Plus, it would be much easier and much more convincing for her to act her part if she didn't know the full plan and the possible dangers. It was essential that Okonogi picked up no trace of knowledge on her part.

At the end of EP4, Amakusa managed to get rid of the rogue Kasumi faction and could probably convince Okonogi's side that Ange was out of the way. For the time being, all threats against Ange had disappeared. I imagine that Battler's reveal would come shortly after that, now that he knows Ange will be safe as long as she keeps a low profile.
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Old 2010-12-07, 11:27   Link #19546
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
My answer is: because there isn't a culprit.
This is something I've been thinking for quite a while to be honest - by EP5, or even before. The idea disgusts me to a point I cannot even express it, but I think chances are high Umineko's answer goes around something like this.
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Old 2010-12-07, 12:22   Link #19547
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If part of Chronotrig's example, or at least the end, would be true, I guess that's a happy end Ange could get. EP4 end scroll tells that Ange died in 1998, but that might be only 'the official record'.

About Amakusa, it was mentioned a similar character with some codename I don't remember which pointed to the number 13 meaning of Juuza. The Higurashi manga portrayed this character strikingly similar to Amakusa. There is 15 years between the Hinamizawa incident and Ange's future. But can we really determine a person's age from Ryukishi's sprites...? Amakusa looks quite young, but he might be around 30. If the assassin from Higurashi is the same Amakusa Juuza, he would have to be about 15-18 in Higurashi, which I think is not TOO far-fetched.

If Battler is Amakusa, that means he was working for Okonogi somewhere between 1980-86, which fits with Higurashi. And at that time he was 12-18 years of age, 15 when Higurashi took place, which fits with my age estimation. An assassin at the age of 15... Battler had been taking steroids, right?
Amakusa might even have been the last name of Asumu's parents. That could be too noticeable though.

Returning to the subject of the 1998 of EP4's Ange is the future of Rokkenjima-Prime, I remembered something from ???? of EP2. It seems that at that time Beatrice had noticed Bernkastel not being a mere observer. Does that mean Bernkastel already had Ange as her piece even before EP3? The Witches' Tanabata tells how ignoring Eva was part of making Ange Bern's piece. If this had been put to work before EP3, could that be evidence of Eva surviving being part of Rokkenjima-Prime? If not, what action had Bernkastel taken before EP3?

I think Eva surviving is against there being no culprit, because if there were no murders what is Eva bitching about to Ange? Unless she imagined all that, or got traumatized/brain-damaged by a certain volcano.

P.S. Was it Chronotrig who said that the day when Kinzo died was 11/29? Where was that confirmed? I found it curious as it's the last four numbers of the EP3 number 07151129.
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Old 2010-12-07, 12:28   Link #19548
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If we go by Higurashi and what Bern says, firm destinies are always created by somebody's strong will. I don't think someone could control something like a volcano erupting or any other kind of natural disaster, so if something like that did kill them it would seem really undramatic.

I actually wouldn't mind if most of the characters turn out to be culprits(or potential culprits, if we believe that Rokkenjima Prime is the one true universe), all acting independently of each other. I mean, most of them have motives; the adults need ALOT OF MONEY RIGHT NOW, and George and Jessica are apparently willing to kill for their love lives(but their victims turn out to be playing dead, shouldn't that screw up the love trial? lol).
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Old 2010-12-07, 12:56   Link #19549
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P.S. Was it Chronotrig who said that the day when Kinzo died was 11/29? Where was that confirmed? I found it curious as it's the last four numbers of the EP3 number 07151129.
It was in EP7. The date when Yasu became the ruler of Rokkenjima was 11/29. That was, apparently, the day Kinzo died as well.
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Old 2010-12-07, 13:01   Link #19550
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P.S. Was it Chronotrig who said that the day when Kinzo died was 11/29? Where was that confirmed? I found it curious as it's the last four numbers of the EP3 number 07151129.
Its also Battler's birthday, what do you mean its not symbolic?!
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Old 2010-12-07, 13:21   Link #19551
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The adults needing money has always made me intensely suspect them not to be culprits, if only because it is so blatantly obvious from the first moment the discussion happens in ep1. Throw "dad's secret gold stash" in and it reaches Scooby-Doo levels.

Not that I would be at all opposed to a Scooby Uu~ ending as a gag end in ep8.
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Old 2010-12-07, 13:48   Link #19552
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A possibly meaningless data point: including Ange, there are 13 people in the Ushiromiya family ranking, and Amakusa's given name means "13". Ange herself isn't the 13th in the ranking though, if I understand the rules correctly.
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Old 2010-12-07, 13:56   Link #19553
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The adults needing money has always made me intensely suspect them not to be culprits, if only because it is so blatantly obvious from the first moment the discussion happens in ep1. Throw "dad's secret gold stash" in and it reaches Scooby-Doo levels.
Well, you could also say it was made so obvious, precisely to deceive the reader - even more so when they're constantly portrayed as heroes in many instances during EPs 1-4.
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Old 2010-12-07, 14:23   Link #19554
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So is this story a fantasy or a mystery? I say neither.
Perhaps, if I may use some cheesy vocabulary,

Spoiler for Mini-rant:
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Old 2010-12-07, 15:20   Link #19555
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(well, technically neither End nor Dawn show her dying either)
Erika decapitates Eva in Dawn.

Quote:
Not that I would be at all opposed to a Scooby Uu~ ending as a gag end in ep8.
Scrappyessica. "Lemme at 'im, Lemme at 'im!"

Georgema. "Jinkies!"
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Old 2010-12-07, 15:55   Link #19556
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Erika decapitates Eva in Dawn.
But it wasn't shown. Also, George kills Eva-Beatrice, not Eva. So technically I'm correct! Technically.
Quote:
Scrappyessica. "Lemme at 'im, Lemme at 'im!"

Georgema. "Jinkies!"
"It was old man Kinzo the whole time!"

"I wouldn't put it past him."

"And I would've gotten away with it if it hadn't been for you meddling kids... and your witch."
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Old 2010-12-07, 17:34   Link #19557
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But it wasn't shown. Also, George kills Eva-Beatrice, not Eva. So technically I'm correct! Technically.
But it was said in the Red Ink. :3
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Old 2010-12-07, 17:36   Link #19558
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No no no, it was the old boat captain Kawabata!

He was getting back at the Ushiromiya family, mainly Krauss. He was told that a fancy resort was gonna be built on Rokkenjima and he would be in charge of ferrying the customers to the island. So he bought a big fancy boat since he couldn't keep his old clunker as the resort is supposed to be high brow. So he buys his new boat but no resort gets built, no resort no customers, no customers no money to pay for fancy new boat. So he plots his revenge on the family. Eva survives but gives him money in exchange for him keeping quiet and helping her get the gold off the island.

It could work........ not really.

A Scooby style ending would explain the goat masks though.
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Old 2010-12-07, 17:45   Link #19559
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And they'd trap Beatrice by dropping a net on her.

Honestly, if he did this as one of the fake endings I'd be very pleased, but I'm not sure how popular Scooby-Doo is in Japan. It's certainly an intolerable watch for a fan of mysteries though, so much so that the recent series makes fun of the ridiculous engineering skills of all of its perpetrators.
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Old 2010-12-07, 19:03   Link #19560
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Okay, seriously, now I'm just imagining Eva running down one of those endless Hanna-Barbera hallways, away from a wave of volcanic Lava.

Ahem. Anyway, I don't think I can buy a natural disaster because if I recall correctly, Eva was found at Kuwadorian, and refused to speak of the incident. The two ideas, "Eva survives", and "It was a natural disaster" don't mesh together very well for me...
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