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Old 2010-12-08, 14:06   Link #19581
Renall
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Bear in mind that the time period for this supposed rampage is roughly from about 10pm (when the family conference supposedly starts) to midnight (when Battler talks to Beatrice). That's a very short time to be faking and un-faking, all out of Battler's sight.
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Old 2010-12-08, 14:17   Link #19582
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I think this is rather obvious to some degree. Jessica and Kyrie feed Battler a lot of rubbish about a witch. In addition, Jessica said too much when she talked about George dying, which she should have no way to know, unless she was informed by someone, since the place where Battler found George's body couldn't be seen from Jessica's bedroom.

If we remember who's the one intending to be seen as a witch, and who probably staged this game, then the reason why Jessica and Kyrie told Battler about a witch becomes apparent, I think. However, the reason why everyone got killed is still something I do not understand. Even if we go by the theory that Yasu killed the rest because Battler failed the test, that wouldn't answer why George got killed beforehand. It also makes me wonder why only George and Kyrie had small holes in their heads, whereas the rest had their heads half destroyed.
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Old 2010-12-08, 14:38   Link #19583
lambdabern
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It also makes me wonder why only George and Kyrie had small holes in their heads, whereas the rest had their heads half destroyed.
The stigma of cain perhaps.That was how the culprit was supposed to be exposed in And Then There Were None and we know umineko has been influenced by it.
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Old 2010-12-08, 14:41   Link #19584
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One other thing:
If the first twilight victims were killed at that time (~10:30), any blood should be long-since dried by the time Battler gets there. If they were still alive when Battler's trial started (~11:45), the blood should probably still be wet when he found them. Is there any mention of

Krauss, Nanjo, Shannon, and George were out in the rain, so any blood would quickly be washed away. Kyrie and Jessica were found within a fairly short period of when they were last confirmed alive, so those corpses should be fresh. Gohda & Kumasawa were confirmed dead fairly late, so there's nothing useful about their bodies.

Wait - did Kyrie react to anything Battler says during her last call? Her "Don't interrupt me" comment makes it possible her call was recorded and she was already dead.
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Old 2010-12-08, 14:54   Link #19585
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Hahaha, yeah I noticed that too but she clearly answered one of his questions. At least it looks like it, unless the way they set up the conversation led to Battler only being able to respond in that one way. Like setting it up with Jessica saying that George was dead and later Kyrie asking if the others where dead as well, Battler would logically answer with yes.

I've already said it some pages ago, it was a possibility that it was all a joke and later the killer re-enacted the scenes by making them real. We dont know the actual order of deaths, the witch creates the illusion that they where in the same order as in the fantasy scenes by saying that Kanon was the 9th victim, this is irrelevant since Kanon can probably "die" anywhere and at any time. Its possible that after Battler failed the test Beatrice told him to move to the chapel and started killing people for real.

Another thing that got me from the phone scene with Kyrie, did Battler ever tell Maria the content of Kyrie's call? If not, why would Maria know that Kyrie told Battler to believe in a witch?
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Old 2010-12-08, 17:00   Link #19586
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George's shirt is explicitly stated to be bloodstained, though the wound in his forehead is not. His eyes are also open.
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Old 2010-12-08, 23:08   Link #19587
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George is 23 is Umineko, so he's 47 now.
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Old 2010-12-09, 05:40   Link #19588
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I think Ryuukishi is definitely the kind of author that would play "the game of the three cards". The concept is basically:

-show three cards face down
-tell the sucker that one of the three cards is the right one
-keep the real right card up your sleeve.

This is a very good strategy to keep someone wondering about a solution without letting him having any chance of finding the right answer. You basically just make people think about which among three solutions is the right one, while the real solution is a fourth one.

This is basically what I think Ryuukishi planned, except there were only two cards.

From the very beginning, he never gave us any assurance that this story was a mystery. Rather it showed us two cards: anti-mystery and anti-fantasy. So he made us wonder for quite a lot of time if this was a mystery or fantasy, as if these were the only two available options. In the beginning he showed us the evil side of fantasy, so everyone was kind made to react to fantasy as the evil to defeat. However in the Umineko Chiru we suddenly see the evil side of mystery, and the main character switches to the fantasy side.

So is this story a fantasy or a mystery? I say neither. The right solution is the third one. It's all the result of a tragic incident that wiped out a whole family in a single day, and because of some incredible circumstances it gave birth to a plethora of discussions conjectures and theories about crazy murders, conspiracies and even esoteric interpretations.

My main point to support this theory is the fact that Erika never even tried to find a real culprit. In EP5 from the very beginning she tried to frame Natsuhi while being perfectly aware that she wasn't the one. In EP6 she aimed to a logic error from the very beginning.
Why would someone who flaunts so much her brain cells and only lives to prove that she's right would resort to such cheap methods? My answer is: because there isn't a culprit.
I think that if there is no culprit it will be an acceptable answer.

Beatrice wanted the truth to be discovered and wanted to be acknowledged as a witch at the same time.

If it were a traditional mystery:
  • If someone discovers the truth then the illusion of the witch dies.
  • If someone accepts the illusion of the witch then the truth will not be discovered.
Umineko is comprised of several sub-mysteries which can be solved using traditional methods. However, Beatrice’s tale is not a traditional mystery. The tale is not seen through the eyes of god. The cat box, which can never be opened, was closed forever by whatever incident occurred on that day.

My opinion is that Ryukishi wanted to create a mystery that could only be solved using this unique rule set (“believing in the witch”, “acknowledging furniture of the witch”, “understanding magic of the witch”, etc.).

Should we be searching for a culprit in this non-traditional mystery?
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Old 2010-12-09, 07:30   Link #19589
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I don't find an issue with the conjecture that the tragedy may be grossly misinterpreted, or with a "benevolent" (at the very least not malevolent) culprit solution. But I think that, at this point, claiming that the crime was not orchestrated by someone is outrageous. If this is the solution, it is an outright betrayal of the reader's trust, which has been so often implied to be a key element to this work, in both enjoying and understanding it. It would be an unprecedented troll. But I suppose this point has already been reiterated plenty enough times.
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Old 2010-12-09, 07:39   Link #19590
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The point is that the regardless of the existence of a real culprit there is still a genius mastermind that orchestrated an incredible plan. So you won't be betrayed on that, you'd still have your "culprit" except the culprit never killed or intended to kill anyone. Unless he was aware of the final explosion which in that case you could consider him a "culprit" in a certain way.

Of course in this case the culprit would be simply Yasu.
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Old 2010-12-09, 07:51   Link #19591
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I really...really dislike the whole "its a love story kyuuun *house blows up*" ending. I know that its what the game's been pushing since EP5 but something in my gut is telling me not to trust it.

If I was RK07 and decided to make an actual mystery novel following all of the established detective rules plus the ones that aren't really written but most follow anyway , I would certainly exploit the possible love ending to troll people. Just pop in Dine's 3rd right before the proposed ending and screw everything up. The same twist from the 3rd game, a set up of 3 games using the 3rd rule to unravel it! A masterful troll, the number 3 is very important and is alluded in Umineko and in the Divine Comedy as well.
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Old 2010-12-09, 08:26   Link #19592
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
The point is that the regardless of the existence of a real culprit there is still a genius mastermind that orchestrated an incredible plan. So you won't be betrayed on that, you'd still have your "culprit" except the culprit never killed or intended to kill anyone. Unless he was aware of the final explosion which in that case you could consider him a "culprit" in a certain way.

Of course in this case the culprit would be simply Yasu.
It's sort of difficult to agree on the definition of "culprit". In Umineko, there are two things we refer to as culprit: first is the person, or group, responsible for the murders, second is whoever is responsible for the magic theme of the happenings. They could be the same, but it's not guaranteed (EP7 seems to imply Yasu is the latter, but might not be the former). If I have it right, what you are saying is basically, there exists only a type two culprit. The deaths happened as a result of some coincidence; perhaps, due to unfortunate natural causes, the bomb exploded and killed everyone that day. Or perhaps someone accidentally did something that caused it to explode.

I have a problem with this. I think it's an interesting, fresh answer, but it's also one that would've been better suited to a work of smaller scope. For Umineko, it would be a half-assed solution. It is just awkward that, after spending perhaps over 80 hours reading, and so much more hypothesizing, we suddenly are told that the vast majority of the work has been a pointless red herring, and that it isn't a mystery or a fantasy at all. I suppose you could say that you felt it was implied from the very beginning, which it could well have been, but it is not the impression I get from this work, and I consider it carelessness on the author's part if two readers could have such different conclusions at this point.

My conclusion is the exact opposite: the implication is that this is both a mystery and a fantasy. If you think about it it really makes a lot of sense. The locked rooms, the murders, what really happened; these all have a consistent, logical explanation and a (direct) human cause. However, the theme; the fantastical volumes from authors; and perhaps the real motive behind the crime, all involve witches and magic. And even if both these solutions are equally probable, I would still take mine over yours, because otherwise it would feel like I am deriding the work.
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Old 2010-12-09, 08:39   Link #19593
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I really...really dislike the whole "its a love story kyuuun *house blows up*" ending. I know that its what the game's been pushing since EP5 but something in my gut is telling me not to trust it.

If I was RK07 and decided to make an actual mystery novel following all of the established detective rules plus the ones that aren't really written but most follow anyway , I would certainly exploit the possible love ending to troll people. Just pop in Dine's 3rd right before the proposed ending and screw everything up. The same twist from the 3rd game, a set up of 3 games using the 3rd rule to unravel it! A masterful troll, the number 3 is very important and is alluded in Umineko and in the Divine Comedy as well.
I think we can all agree that there will be some kind of twist in the coming final episode. Not just the revelation that the game will now have choices. Something that will make us all say: “ah! I should have seen this coming! Brilliant!”.
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Old 2010-12-09, 08:50   Link #19594
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I don't know how the ending will be, but I too strongly feel it won't be a 'love story' kind of thing. It might involve a love story, and it would certainly involve some concept of 'love' (not necessarily of the romantic kind, or even between characters in the story), but this doesn't seem to be where it's going. In the least, I think a lot of the 'love' shown to us in the last few episodes has been more tainted than we give it credit for. (Ryushiki is a master at portraying the happenings on the island in whichever light he chooses. He made what may well be tragic murder scenes into silly love stories. It wouldn't surprise me if he did the opposite, too. Besides, EP3, anyone?)

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Old 2010-12-09, 09:15   Link #19595
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I don't know how logical it sounds but this ending is screwed up.I know it is ryukishi but even he wouldn't make an 8 part visual novel based on the concept of finding a culprit when there is no one and everything happened because of an explosion caused by a game organized by the servant girl.Even ryukishi isn't that stupid he wouldn't do something that would disappoint half the fans of umineko!!!
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Old 2010-12-09, 09:37   Link #19596
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I think we can all agree that there will be some kind of twist in the coming final episode. Not just the revelation that the game will now have choices. Something that will make us all say: “ah! I should have seen this coming! Brilliant!”.
I think you mean we hope there will be some kind of should-have-seen-this-coming resolution. It's equally probable at this point that we will get a "That's it, huh..." ending (at least for a portion of the reader base).

Granted, it's probably impossible to please everyone. But he's catered to, teased at, and thrown out shout-outs to mystery fans the whole way through the story. To turn around and tell them they were barking up the wrong tree is a bit more than a betrayal of those readers. It's basically teasing them for liking the genre the author pretended to like too.

There's a lot of things ryukishi can get away with in the name of literature, but there's a remarkably small number of things he's actually set himself up to permissibly get away with. A "no culprit, it was a coincidental and tragic accident spun out of hand" ending is not impossible, but he hasn't properly established the literary framework to make it acceptable. So yes, I think some people would be rightfully disappointed, and I don't think it's because they're looking at things in some shortsighted or incorrect way.
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Old 2010-12-09, 10:36   Link #19597
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I think you mean we hope there will be some kind of should-have-seen-this-coming resolution. It's equally probable at this point that we will get a "That's it, huh..." ending (at least for a portion of the reader base).
Yeah. Because I have no faith in his writing ability I have followed this story for a few years now and I think there's only a 50/50 chance. Right.
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Granted, it's probably impossible to please everyone. But he's catered to, teased at, and thrown out shout-outs to mystery fans the whole way through the story. To turn around and tell them they were barking up the wrong tree is a bit more than a betrayal of those readers. It's basically teasing them for liking the genre the author pretended to like too.
When I saw the Taiwan epitaph theory for the first time I knew it was probably the answer because it was so much better than any other epitaph theory I had seen. After seven episodes why is there no culprit theory that is a clear frontrunner? Do you believe that his 'answer' is that good/bad?
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There's a lot of things ryukishi can get away with in the name of literature, but there's a remarkably small number of things he's actually set himself up to permissibly get away with. A "no culprit, it was a coincidental and tragic accident spun out of hand" ending is not impossible, but he hasn't properly established the literary framework to make it acceptable. So yes, I think some people would be rightfully disappointed, and I don't think it's because they're looking at things in some shortsighted or incorrect way.
Whatever. I don’t care for the ‘no culprit theory’ either but it seems to be the direction he’s heading considering how Battler began telling the tale to Ange at the end of EP7.

How about the wedding with everyone present at the end of episode 6? "Oh hey, I know you killed us all but we can be friends now." Awkward.
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Old 2010-12-09, 11:11   Link #19598
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I'm not even sure what to expect from EP8 anymore. I mean, we've (or maybe just you guys, all I've been doing is asking questions xD) dissected almost every possibility there may be, such as Shannon wanting to play a game but the real mastermind decided to really kill, there were no murders and it was all a natural disaster, or Kinzo poisoned them all and chopped them up to appear as if they were murdered very brutally (such as them finding Maria's jaw or something, what's up with that?) 8D

Okay, maybe I made that last one up, but yeah. I'm still thouroughly confused over whether magic is really REAL or not. I mean, EP1 didn't have any "magic" involved, it wasn't even a game. Then magic happens at the end and continues on from there. If it's really reality going on but "meta magic whatever" is covering it (Ex: Eva-Beatrice trying to kill Beatrice, in the magic meta whatever world it seemed that, but some people suspect in reality it was just real Eva trying to destroy the Beato-bomb) why would they have magic covering it then?

It's just confusing, 'tis all. I mean, what else can Ryu07 do that will definately put us through a loop, even though we've covered almost every possibility there is? There probably won't even be a loop, I don't know. Ryu07 may have something up his sleeve, or he never did and never really meant to get us fans all hyped up even when there was going to be "nothing". But I'd never think of Ryu07 that way. I still have a little faith in him, we just have to wait a few days for EP8 and then wait a few months for the English~
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Old 2010-12-09, 11:22   Link #19599
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Yeah. Because I have no faith in his writing ability I have followed this story for a few years now and I think there's only a 50/50 chance. Right.
Well, I'm sure there were some Higurashi fans who were unpleasantly surprised by how that turned out, and they'd been following it for a while themselves. Never underestimate the capability of a promising VN author to torpedo themselves in sight of the finish line.
Quote:
When I saw the Taiwan epitaph theory for the first time I knew it was probably the answer because it was so much better than any other epitaph theory I had seen. After seven episodes why is there no culprit theory that is a clear frontrunner? Do you believe that his 'answer' is that good/bad?

Whatever. I don’t care for the ‘no culprit theory’ either but it seems to be the direction he’s heading considering how Battler began telling the tale to Ange at the end of EP7.
People are always telling me that having some amount of doubt regarding the information in ep7 is "wasting" the episode. But one could make the same argument about the "no culprit" theory. Why waste our time presenting that there could be a culprit, twice in one episode, and assert that the matter is a crime, and then pull the rug out from that? Nobody is being fooled here; they just don't want to consider the "tragic accident" theory that's been mainstream thought in-world since ep4 because it's... well, obvious and kind of silly.

Is it pointless? Absolutely not. There's definitely a statement you can make about it if you say there's no culprit. In fact, you could make a very valid statement, one I've long ruminated on (per sig): "These people are dead. If you say there's a crime, you have to finger one of them as a criminal. They can't defend themselves from that. Leave them alone already."

But I don't think he's thematically set himself up for a meditation on the inadequacies of the mystery genre compared to real-life ambiguous pseudo-criminal incidents. Just about everything he's presented has been encouraging, even demanding that his reader not accept Okonogi's assurance to Ange that it was an "unfortunate incident." We've been asked to find the truth; there's a certain elegance to the "the truth was always in front of you" answer, but in this case I just don't think it's been properly established as a theme. Certainly there's some mystery criticism going on in Umineko, but to subvert the fundamental ideas of knowability and criminality after the fact... that takes a particular foundation. He hasn't really set it.

I think it will just be an underwhelming or forced-sympathetic culprit. I actually expect to be disappointed. And again, that's not necessarily a poor ending... I just think it would be given what he's worked towards all this time.
Quote:
How about the wedding with everyone present at the end of episode 6? "Oh hey, I know you killed us all but we can be friends now." Awkward.
Meh. I've seen nastier family conflicts at weddings.
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I submit that a murder was committed in 1996.
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This story is a redacted confession.

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Old 2010-12-09, 11:37   Link #19600
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I still have a little faith in him, we just have to wait a few days for EP8 and then wait a few months for the English~
Don't forget the crap-loads of fake spoilers and character graphics that will bombard us the moment the game comes out.
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