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Old 2011-03-09, 17:30   Link #22281
Leafsnail
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I think there's a good chance it was. It would be an act of magic to revive Beatrice (an entire family vanished! Everyone gets a happy ending! And it was all Beatrice! Just ask the survivors, hehehe...) and would seem to explain the prior knowledge she has with the message bottles (as well as why she'd write them). It also gives a reason why the fake twilights would appear on the later gameboards at all.
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Old 2011-03-09, 17:38   Link #22282
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Originally Posted by Mirrored View Post
Well, it would create another problem.
You could basically write out everything, separate it by page, and then change some of the pages the day before, add details, etc. Using that model, you could flesh out large sections and then make small changes right before-hand.

Since you keep 95% of the scenes consistent, the rest just exist for detail. For example, a typhoon isn't even really needed for Rokkenjima to be a closed island. If you take out the radios and phone lines it's already an island and the boat isn't scheduled to return anytime soon. So you could plan out the murders based on that alone.
Changing things like who is present on a short timescale is easier said than done. For example, in the English text of Episode 1, George's name appears over 300 times; Natsuhi's, Jessica's and Battler's names appears 400 times; Maria's appears over 500 times. Were Ange a character in the story, she'd either survive to the ninth twilight (and would presumably have a comparable number of mentions), or she'd be a victim (and whichever person replaced her as a victim would have to have a similar number of mentions). In either case, trying to just edit her out would involve changing most of the pages. She might as well recopy the whole book.
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Old 2011-03-09, 18:00   Link #22283
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
It's possible, but we have to believe such a game was planned in R-Prime and not merely imagined in Beatrice's flights of fancy or fictions.
To that, I raise that Yasu is clearly lacking any qualities necessary to actually be a murderer. In the interest of assuming Ryukishi has SOME understanding of the human mind...
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Old 2011-03-09, 18:12   Link #22284
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Concerning one of the point I wrote about.

Of course it's easy to write that the message bottle is found since it can only come true if it is found. But you cannot predict who finds it, when they finds it and how they found it.

Within arc 1's end we are told who finds it and when they found it. It's impossible to predict this beforehand.

Even if the message bottle was written after all the Rokkenjima events it cannot have been written after it has been found, yet contains the information of when it was found.

Edit : Weather forecast is arguably the least practical "science" that we still decide to use in society. It is rarely perfectly accurate even a day before.

Another Edit : When referring to how Battler acted on the boat, I'm referring to his fear of falling and the commotion he causes because of that. Kawabata didn't forget it. Surely the conversations on the boat can change since he didn't hear them, but that Battler freaked out and asked them to slow down seems to be a constant. One that the 1998 Kawabata didn't deny either.

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Old 2011-03-09, 18:40   Link #22285
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To that, I raise that Yasu is clearly lacking any qualities necessary to actually be a murderer. In the interest of assuming Ryukishi has SOME understanding of the human mind...
Oh I agree. The existence of a game is almost an absolute necessity if the message bottles are written ahead of time, as otherwise we're forced to assume some manner of culpability on Beatrice's part. The games themselves do not actually mention the explosion; that seems coincidental.

Really, the "problem" with pre-writing is you need some excuse as to how Beatrice "knew what was going to happen" but didn't cause it or fail to try to stop it. If she in fact did not know, that means one must explain away her actions through some other means. "A game was planned; the explosion was coincidentally similar to the game outcome (i.e. everyone "dies")" works... mostly.
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Old 2011-03-09, 18:55   Link #22286
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What if the explosion is part of the game/ vanishing act? That's not just a coincidence... Beatrice's plan would've ended up exactly the same as it really did, only without everyone dying. Beatrice presumably didn't realize that the explosion which made the plan perfect for making everyone vanish was also perfect for murdering everyone for real.
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Old 2011-03-09, 19:07   Link #22287
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Alternatively it seems "Everyone 'dies'"/"Explosion" because she didn't write a proper ending; she wanted the winner of the game to decide its outcome.
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Old 2011-03-09, 19:28   Link #22288
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Ange doesn't come to the island consistently because of her weak constitution, so it would actually be really dangerous to use her in anything plot-critical. It would have been safer to assume she wouldn't come and then have some out-of-narrative contingency plan to get her out of the way.
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Old 2011-03-09, 20:28   Link #22289
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The criticisms to the pre-writing approach are good. It'd really depend how many pieces of paper we're talking about here, and how it was all set up.

It also depends on how far in advance we could have known that Ange was not going to make it.

---

Yasu has plenty of the qualities of a murderer. Odds are he/she was thrown from a cliff by the person who was supposed to love him/her, can't have children, and even if given all of the money in the world-- wouldn't be able to find any happiness. There are very few reasons to remain a servant after finding a horde of gold. They point, generally, to a sense of purposelessness.

I think that denying Yasu created a large plot to kill, or denying that the Ushiromiya's are all basically would-be murderers, misses the point of Ep5 and Ep7.

The obvious theory if they are written after, is that she's that author chick, living together with Battler after both of them "died" and were "reborn". There's probably something in Ep 8 that contradicts this.
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Old 2011-03-09, 20:48   Link #22290
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Quote:
Yasu has plenty of the qualities of a murderer. Odds are he/she was thrown from a cliff by the person who was supposed to love him/her, can't have children, and even if given all of the money in the world-- wouldn't be able to find any happiness. There are very few reasons to remain a servant after finding a horde of gold. They point, generally, to a sense of purposelessness.
Anyone with any credentials in psychology wouldn't be able to convict Yasu with murderous intent. The girl goes to over-the-top ends of seeing the best in anyone, she's too timid to work up the courage to make a phone call, doesn't believe she has the power to change anything, and her fantasies are all about cheering her up instead of satisying revenge scenarios. Not to mention we're supposed to feel sympathy for her, and yet we're not given any good reason why she'd just decide to kill everyone. We're given plenty of reasons of why she'd kill herself, but nothing provides the "DERP DERP BLOW EVERYONE TO SMITHEREENS" switch.

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I think that denying Yasu created a large plot to kill, or denying that the Ushiromiya's are all basically would-be murderers, misses the point of Ep5 and Ep7.
I say painting Yasu as a murderer misses the point of her entire character, and her series-long trend of martyring herself as the bad guy for shit that is other peoples' fault. "COME ON, blame me! Blame me and you won't have to suspect your relatives!"

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The obvious theory if they are written after, is that she's that author chick, living together with Battler after both of them "died" and were "reborn". There's probably something in Ep 8 that contradicts this.
Well, reading EP8 would help.
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Old 2011-03-09, 21:33   Link #22291
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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post

Well, reading EP8 would help.
Alas, it's still in da moonspeak.

Also, and this isnt related to anything, but I'm curious - in EP8, pretty much everybody besides Bern / Lambda, Battler/Ange, Auau/ Erika is involved with fighting the pirate goat brigade, right? Do you actually see Zepar/Furfur ... helping?

Random question is random, I know.
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Old 2011-03-09, 23:13   Link #22292
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Zepar and Furfur mostly dick around. That's what they do.
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Old 2011-03-10, 00:08   Link #22293
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Zepar and Furfur mostly dick around. That's what they do.
That was an evil pun. :3

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Also, and this isnt related to anything, but I'm curious - in EP8, pretty much everybody besides Bern / Lambda, Battler/Ange, Auau/ Erika is involved with fighting the pirate goat brigade, right? Do you actually see Zepar/Furfur ... helping?
One of the other characters asked why they didn't try to help fight and they said that they were just there as 'announcers' or 'master of ceremonies' and didn't have any powers.

IIRC, there were some other characters that didn't fight much either...
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Old 2011-03-10, 08:33   Link #22294
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IIRC, there were some other characters that didn't fight much either...
Magical Gohda Chef sure doesn't help. In fact, he practically messes everything up.

Everyone was trying to AVOID fighting the big scary goat navy with the big bitchy blue-haired pirate bitch by pretending to fight with each other. Gohda is the one who blows their cover.
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Old 2011-03-10, 10:56   Link #22295
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[*]We don't actually know when the bottles were really found or that they were "found" at all. We have anecdotal reports, stories basically, about how they were uncovered. Ange certainly never spoke to a police officer (for obvious reasons) involved or to the fisherman who actually supposedly found it. Even then, it's not a guarantee that they were set adrift before the incident even if they are found washed up somewhere.
What do you mean "anecdotal reports"?

Ootsuki says that the first message was found by the police right in front of Ange. I don't think he'd have any reason to lie and therefore the first finding is a fact stated by official sources.

How could this be less anecdotal than this? This is practically the only official statement claimed by the police that we're actually aware of.


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I'm just deeply suspicious of the idea that the message bottles have to predate the incident. That line of thinking causes more problems than it solves. Postdating the message bottles creates only one, though it's a doozy (namely, that Beatrice would have survived).
You're using the same logic that made you think shkanon was false. And you know, I agree with you that it causes more problem and it's very hard to explain in a sensible manner. But you are starting from a wrong assumption which at this point you should drop.

I did...


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Probably, yes, but that still dates it to a possible window of "whenever Battler was announced to be returning" into perpetuity. Perpetuity still has the edge.Patently absurd. Do you know how much retooling would be necessary to remove an entire person from a narrative? Let alone a person who is entirely different from Battler (thus you can't just cross out "Ange" and fill in "Battler")? If Ange were in the manuscripts she'd have to become a victim, etc. and this never happens. It is somewhat improbable that this would not be accounted for, particularly with Rudolf and Kyrie dying so early. Unless Ange's role in the original story was "tail Maria around, never do anything she doesn't do," you can't just write her out like that.To guess it perfectly, you have to be pretty close to the date. Weather forecasts are quite inaccurate and the entire narrative of the first two episodes requires that the family could not leave on Sunday as planned. That was controlled by Kawabata, not the family.
I think the main issue is the fact that the novels were handwritten. So a correction of that sort would require a lot of efforts... So yeah it's highly improbable that Ange was included in the beginning.


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Oh I agree. The existence of a game is almost an absolute necessity if the message bottles are written ahead of time, as otherwise we're forced to assume some manner of culpability on Beatrice's part. The games themselves do not actually mention the explosion; that seems coincidental.

Really, the "problem" with pre-writing is you need some excuse as to how Beatrice "knew what was going to happen" but didn't cause it or fail to try to stop it. If she in fact did not know, that means one must explain away her actions through some other means. "A game was planned; the explosion was coincidentally similar to the game outcome (i.e. everyone "dies")" works... mostly.
There are also the letters to consider and those were postmarked on October 3rd.
In other words we need to accept that Beatrice planned something beforehand or knew something was going to happen or that something could happen.

Unfortunately it's almost impossible to conclude with any certainty about how much she knew of what then actually happened.

It could go from "She knew everyone would die" from a "She had a completely different plan and everyone died because something went wrong".


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By the way, anybody wonder whether Ryu knew that Knox had converted to Catholocism from Anglicanism, or was that coincidental Fridge Brilliance? (He presumably knew that Knox was Catholic, given that Dlanor is part of the Inquisition.)
I think Ryuukishi either knew or he doesn't know/care about the difference.

Dlanor's symbol of the two keys is the very same symbol in the Vatican's flag


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Magical Gohda Chef sure doesn't help. In fact, he practically messes everything up.
Gohda might not have caused the Rokkenjima incident by mistake as some speculated, but he did cause the golden land to reach a premature end because of his blunders!
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Old 2011-03-10, 11:24   Link #22296
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What do you mean "anecdotal reports"?

Ootsuki says that the first message was found by the police right in front of Ange. I don't think he'd have any reason to lie and therefore the first finding is a fact stated by official sources.

How could this be less anecdotal than this? This is practically the only official statement claimed by the police that we're actually aware of.
Ootsuki tells Ange the same story we got in the endscroll. He has no direct experience (and if he does, he doesn't advance it) that he actually got the message bottle from police.

That aside, the police aren't immune to hoax or error.

Come on, this is the easiest hoax in the world to make up. It's right up there with saying the government gave me this report that proves aliens exist, but of course if you call and ask the government they'll deny it! And the fisherman thing? Come onnnnnnnnnn.
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You're using the same logic that made you think shkanon was false. And you know, I agree with you that it causes more problem and it's very hard to explain in a sensible manner. But you are starting from a wrong assumption which at this point you should drop.
How do you know it's the wrong assumption?

Oh, right. You don't. Skepticism is not unhealthy. The provenance of the message bottles is inherently suspicious. The only thing Ange ever proved is that the same person who wrote them wrote in Maria's diary. That identifies the author. Doesn't prove anything else.

Nice random crack at me over something that's still not understood, too.
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I think the main issue is the fact that the novels were handwritten. So a correction of that sort would require a lot of efforts... So yeah it's highly improbable that Ange was included in the beginning.
I was going to debate this, but if Ootsuki can compare the handwriting, they must contain copious amounts of hand-written information. So yes, you can't even fix this with a new typewritten manuscript, unless he was solely comparing the writing in the diary to "Ushiromiya Maria" and her signature.
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There are also the letters to consider and those were postmarked on October 3rd.
In other words we need to accept that Beatrice planned something beforehand or knew something was going to happen or that something could happen.

Unfortunately it's almost impossible to conclude with any certainty about how much she knew of what then actually happened.

It could go from "She knew everyone would die" from a "She had a completely different plan and everyone died because something went wrong".
Well, that's the problem, it's a false correlation. The postmarked letters may have nothing to do with the incident, the deaths, or the message bottles. You can't deny the evidence as such, but you can certainly question whether there is any connection or whether one is simply drawing one between incongruous events and looking for a pattern.

Is it really crazy to question whether that imagined pattern is nothing more than a falsely-drawn conclusion? Perhaps, given Ryukishi's ability to blow it and lean on coincidence and happenstance. But if this were a good story, that'd be the first thing I would question about 1998's "evidence."
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Old 2011-03-10, 11:55   Link #22297
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Weren't the letters shown to be written by the same person who wrote in Maria's diary too? I mean... I guess Beatrice might've just done it for no reason at all, but I think it fits better if she was planning to fake everyone's deaths. It means the families left behind are reimbursed for the loss of an earner (and may later receive letters from their family member telling them that they're alive).
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Old 2011-03-10, 12:03   Link #22298
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Ootsuki tells Ange the same story we got in the endscroll. He has no direct experience (and if he does, he doesn't advance it) that he actually got the message bottle from police.
Excuse me but what exactly are you suggesting? He states that the police claimed that they got the message soon after the incident.
How could he lie about something that can be easily checked?

The police made that statement, it doesn't make sense to think otherwise.


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That aside, the police aren't immune to hoax or error.

Come on, this is the easiest hoax in the world to make up. It's right up there with saying the government gave me this report that proves aliens exist, but of course if you call and ask the government they'll deny it! And the fisherman thing? Come onnnnnnnnnn.
Again what are you suggesting exactly? That the police was in cahoot with Beatrice to spread the idea of a witch performing crimes? You can't deny something because it doesn't make much sense if you can't propose something more sensible.

The witch hunt phenomenon didn't begin if not several years later after the incident. So who the hell would create that first message?

Only Beatrice could, but then again it was found soon after the incident so you just gain a few days at best. Why would she want to wait? To be more precise in her story telling? If that was really true why did she "kill" Eva then?

This story doesn't provide any reason to believe Beatrice survived the incident. So you are basically denying the obvious because it's "suspicious" while all the other alternatives are far-fetched at best.


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Nice random crack at me over something that's still not understood, too.
You are assuming that this story must make completely sense, even so you know that shkanon is most certainly true and that by your own definition it's "aggressively retarded". Why? Why I wonder!

This story is full of holes. There is simply no way to make complete sense out of every single part of it in a satisfactory manner.

If your only reason to claim "theory x is wrong" is because it doesn't make much sense from a realistic standpoint then you should think twice.

The only thing that is reasonable to do is to understand what Ryuukishi laid out on this messy story. Suggesting never mentioned plot twists or trolls after the story has ended already isn't reasonable, especially after the last 3 episodes didn't really show any!
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Old 2011-03-10, 12:29   Link #22299
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Excuse me but what exactly are you suggesting? He states that the police claimed that they got the message soon after the incident.
How could he lie about something that can be easily checked?

The police made that statement, it doesn't make sense to think otherwise.
No. You will not find, at any point in Umineko, any police officers other than the one Maria meets when she's locked out of her house.

You are confusing "the police said x" with "someone said the police said x." Now, it's still entirely possible you're right, but there is a significant trust gap there.
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Again what are you suggesting exactly? That the police was in cahoot with Beatrice to spread the idea of a witch performing crimes? You can't deny something because it doesn't make much sense if you can't propose something more sensible.
I have, you're not listening. I'm saying either the police never actually had the thing (and I have in the past outlined several reasons why the entire thing would be strange if they did find it), or the police were fooled. It's not that hard to believe.

The police aren't infallible, and if you fool the police, you add credibility to your story. We don't know how specifically the message bottle "found" by police was acknowledged, nor how it wound up released to the public. Did they make a press release, or did a retired detective "reveal" it? Hell, you could make the whole thing up, give the message bottle to Ootsuki, and tell him the police found it, knowing he'll repeat that story because he's a conspiracy nut.

Which he does, to Ange, one of only two times we're ever told that story and the sole time a main character in an investigatory role ever hears that story.
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The witch hunt phenomenon didn't begin if not several years later after the incident. So who the hell would create that first message?
Someone who wanted to spark it, or who was looking for someone. The long delay is itself inherently suspect if the bottles were released early. The claim is "Oh I found that and didn't think it was anything that important for years." Really?
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Only Beatrice could, but then again it was found soon after the incident so you just gain a few days at best. Why would she want to wait? To be more precise in her story telling? If that was really true why did she "kill" Eva then?
1) We're told it was found soon after the incident. Being told something is not the same as the thing we're told actually being true.

2) There are many reasons to wait, but relatively few reasons why the delay on the message bottles would be so long. If Battler can survive through ridiculous contrivances that restrict his ability to reveal himself to the world, basically any argument can be used here. And the impetus to publish (such as believing Battler is alive out there somewhere) could have only arisen later.

3) We have long known that Beatrice's goal was not factually-accurate retellings of the events of those two days. She has no reason not to kill Eva.
Quote:
This story doesn't provide any reason to believe Beatrice survived the incident. So you are basically denying the obvious because it's "suspicious" while all the other alternatives are far-fetched at best.
Doesn't it? Personality death blows all doors wide open. "Beatrice died?" Why yes, but of course Yasu survived! It never ends.

And that aside, I really don't have much reason to think she didn't. If two people can survive independently, three people certainly can. Or four. Or eighteen. Hell, what do we know?
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Old 2011-03-10, 12:59   Link #22300
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Renall you completely ignored my point that it makes no sense for someone to lie about something that can be easily checked.

Your whole counters fall if you can't find a plausible explanation for this.


The messages in the bottles are an existence that is known worldwide and so are their contents. So a fact like "the first message was discovered by the police shortly after the incident" can't possibly be something that Ootsuki made up. There's just no way that the origin of those messages weren't made public, and there's no way that the authorities wouldn't rectify a false statement about themselves.

The bottle was taken as an evidence about the incident. You should know well that in that case all the related info about its discovery were properly registered and that it was stored into a safe place.

Again if you question this you must provide a sensible explanation as to why Ootsuki would lie or as to why he would be misinformed despite being a prominent witch hunter and an university professor.


So the only option that's left to you is to speculate that the police or someone inside falsified the story or the content of the bottle. But can you really find any reason as to why would they want to do that?


Quote:
1) We're told it was found soon after the incident. Being told something is not the same as the thing we're told actually being true.
You could say the same thing to question every single fact of this story. It's what we are told, and that's all that we have to base or reasonings upon.


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2) There are many reasons to wait, but relatively few reasons why the delay on the message bottles would be so long.
Oh really?

Quote:
3) We have long known that Beatrice's goal was not factually-accurate retellings of the events of those two days. She has no reason not to kill Eva.
Then she has no reasons to wait until the facts to write her stories.

Quote:
And that aside, I really don't have much reason to think she didn't. If two people can survive independently, three people certainly can. Or four. Or eighteen. Hell, what do we know?
And where was that suggested?
Maybe you haven't noticed but this was the last episode.
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