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Old 2011-09-01, 23:29   Link #3601
Ithekro
The Comet is Coming
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Republic of California
Age: 37
Quote:
ARENA 12: [Shana] Suzumiya Haruhi
They have the same character designer. Think about it.
Aside from their chest areas.
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Old 2011-09-01, 23:39   Link #3602
BaKaBaKaOtaKu
Stupidity is Bliss.
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: In Hancock's Heart
Neither Taiga nor Kanade deserve my vote. I don't favor any of them to win.
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Old 2011-09-01, 23:51   Link #3603
calorie
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Tannhäuser Gate
Age: 26
ARENA 01: [Saber] Katsura Hinagiku
ARENA 02: [Nakamura Yuri] Misaka Mikoto
ARENA 03: [Tachibana Kanade] Aisaka Taiga
ARENA 04: Nakano Azusa [Hirasawa Yui]
ARENA 05: [Furukawa Nagisa] Izumi Konata
ARENA 06: Kasugano Sora [Sanzen'in Nagi]
ARENA 07: [Fujibayashi Kyō] Iwasawa Asami
ARENA 08: Laura Bodewig [Tōsaka Rin]
ARENA 09: Sengoku Nadeko [Senjōgahara Hitagi]
ARENA 10: [Kotobuki Tsumugi] Nymph
ARENA 11: Shiina Mafuyu [Asahina Mikuru]
ARENA 12: [Shana] Suzumiya Haruhi
ARENA 13: Shiina [Hiiragi Kagami]
ARENA 14: Charlotte Dunois [Nagato Yuki]
ARENA 15: Shirai Kuroko [Index L. Prohibitorum]
ARENA 16: Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) [Abstained] Eucliwood Hellscythe
ARENA 17: [Holo] Kōsaka Kirino
ARENA 18: Huang Lingyin [Abstained] Last Order
ARENA 19: Louise Vallière [Abstained] Konjiki no Yami
ARENA 20: Seraphim [Fate Testarossa]
ARENA 21: [C.C.] Aragaki Ayase
ARENA 22: Sakagami Tomoyo [Victorique de Blois]
ARENA 23: Kuroi Mato [Abstained] Shinonono Hōki
ARENA 24: Yui [Akiyama Mio]
ARENA 25: [Hirasawa Ui] Haruna
ARENA 26: Morishima Haruka [Abstained] Takei Hisa
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Old 2011-09-02, 06:36   Link #3604
Coldlight
Sayaka★Magica
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Under the piercing blue sky
Quote:
Originally Posted by BaKaBaKaOtaKu View Post
Neither Taiga nor Kanade deserve my vote. I don't favor any of them to win.
Hmm, didn't you already say you've given up on ISML a long time ago?
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Old 2011-09-02, 07:02   Link #3605
liquidmetal
procrastinating...
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
ARENA 01: Saber [Katsura Hinagiku]
ARENA 02: Nakamura Yuri [Misaka Mikoto]
ARENA 03: [Tachibana Kanade] Aisaka Taiga
ARENA 04: [Nakano Azusa] Hirasawa Yui
ARENA 05: Furukawa Nagisa [Izumi Konata]
ARENA 06: Kasugano Sora [Sanzen'in Nagi]
ARENA 07: [Fujibayashi Kyō] Iwasawa Asami
ARENA 08: [Laura Bodewig] Tōsaka Rin
ARENA 09: [Sengoku Nadeko] Senjōgahara Hitagi
ARENA 10: Kotobuki Tsumugi [Nymph]
ARENA 11: Shiina Mafuyu [Asahina Mikuru]
ARENA 12: Shana [Suzumiya Haruhi]
ARENA 13: Shiina [Hiiragi Kagami]
ARENA 14: Charlotte Dunois [Nagato Yuki]
ARENA 15: Shirai Kuroko [Abstained] Index L. Prohibitorum
ARENA 16: [Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko)] Eucliwood Hellscythe
ARENA 17: Holo [Kōsaka Kirino]
ARENA 18: Huang Lingyin [Last Order]
ARENA 19: Louise Vallière [Konjiki no Yami]
ARENA 20: Seraphim [Fate Testarossa]
ARENA 21: C.C. [Aragaki Ayase]
ARENA 22: [Sakagami Tomoyo] Victorique de Blois
ARENA 23: Kuroi Mato [Abstained] Shinonono Hōki
ARENA 24: Yui [Akiyama Mio]
ARENA 25: [Hirasawa Ui] Haruna
ARENA 26: Morishima Haruka [Takei Hisa]
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Old 2011-09-02, 08:59   Link #3606
Darth Atma
Rookie Member
 
 
Join Date: May 2006
Ruby Round 5

ARENA 01: Saber [Katsura Hinagiku]
ARENA 02: [Nakamura Yuri] Misaka Mikoto
ARENA 03: [Tachibana Kanade] Aisaka Taiga
ARENA 04: Nakano Azusa [Abstained] Hirasawa Yui
ARENA 05: [Furukawa Nagisa] Izumi Konata
ARENA 06: [Kasugano Sora] Sanzen'in Nagi
ARENA 07: [Fujibayashi Kyō] Iwasawa Asami
ARENA 08: [Laura Bodewig] Tōsaka Rin
ARENA 09: Sengoku Nadeko [Senjōgahara Hitagi]
ARENA 10: [Kotobuki Tsumugi] Nymph
ARENA 11: [Shiina Mafuyu] Asahina Mikuru
ARENA 12: [Shana] Suzumiya Haruhi
ARENA 13: Shiina [Hiiragi Kagami]
ARENA 14: [Charlotte Dunois] Nagato Yuki
ARENA 15: Shirai Kuroko [Index L. Prohibitorum]
ARENA 16: [Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko)] Eucliwood Hellscythe
ARENA 17: Holo [Kōsaka Kirino]
ARENA 18: [Huang Lingyin] Last Order
ARENA 19: Louise Vallière [Konjiki no Yami]
ARENA 20: Seraphim [Fate Testarossa]
ARENA 21: C.C. [Aragaki Ayase]
ARENA 22: [Sakagami Tomoyo] Victorique de Blois
ARENA 23: Kuroi Mato [Shinonono Hōki]
ARENA 24: [Yui] Akiyama Mio
ARENA 25: Hirasawa Ui [Abstained] Haruna
ARENA 26: Morishima Haruka [Takei Hisa]

I pray there would be some hope on Sora-chan. T^T
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Old 2011-09-02, 10:48   Link #3607
RegalStar
Mishaguji-sama
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
So, after tallying up all the votes in this forum, the official forum, and MyAnimeList forum, there are 53 posted votes for Kanade and 44 against. So much for Kanade's first loss, hmm?
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Old 2011-09-02, 10:56   Link #3608
hinakatbklyn
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
I'm guessing weekend schedule is the reason for the Ruby 6 matches, but I could be wrong:

Spoiler for Note worthy matches for Ruby 6:
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Old 2011-09-02, 10:59   Link #3609
RegalStar
Mishaguji-sama
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Hitagi is quite a bit stronger than Charlotte.

Also, you forgot Victorique < Yui. It's a match that is swinging in Yui's favor, but Victorique would do well to try as hard as she can anyways, as it allows her to take that last 16 spot even if Nadeko wins against one of Hitagi and Charlotte.
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Old 2011-09-02, 11:05   Link #3610
Chiibi
Lolli for loli :D
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: in a boring place you will not want to go to
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Muh votes:

ARENA 01: [[Saber]] Katsura Hinagiku
ARENA 02: [[Nakamura Yuri]] Misaka Mikoto
ARENA 03: [[Tachibana Kanade]] Aisaka Taiga
ARENA 04: Nakano Azusa [[Hirasawa Yui]]
ARENA 05: Furukawa Nagisa [[Izumi Konata]]
ARENA 06: Kasugano Sora [[Sanzen'in Nagi]]
ARENA 07: [[Fujibayashi Kyō]] Iwasawa Asami
ARENA 08: [[Laura Bodewig]] Tōsaka Rin
ARENA 09: Sengoku Nadeko [[Abstained]] Senjōgahara Hitagi
ARENA 10: Kotobuki Tsumugi [[Nymph]]
ARENA 11: [[Shiina Mafuyu]] Asahina Mikuru
ARENA 12: [[Shana]] Suzumiya Haruhi
ARENA 13: [[Shiina]] Hiiragi Kagami
ARENA 14: Charlotte Dunois [[Nagato Yuki]]
ARENA 15: Shirai Kuroko [[Index L. Prohibitorum]]
ARENA 16: Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) [[Eucliwood Hellscythe]]
ARENA 17: [[Holo]] Kōsaka Kirino
ARENA 18: [[Huang Lingyin]] Last Order
ARENA 19: Louise Vallière [[Konjiki no Yami]]
ARENA 20: Seraphim [[Fate Testarossa]]
ARENA 21: [[C.C.]] Aragaki Ayase
ARENA 22: [[Sakagami Tomoyo]] Victorique de Blois
ARENA 23: [[Kuroi Mato]] Shinonono Hōki
ARENA 24: [[Yui]] Akiyama Mio
ARENA 25: Hirasawa Ui [[Haruna]]
ARENA 26: Morishima Haruka [[Takei Hisa]]
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Old 2011-09-02, 11:22   Link #3611
ion475
にこにこにー
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: 国立音ノ木坂学院
Umm...exhibition b/t two girls that don't even have anime...well, I'm going for Kud...

For the "marquee" matchups...
1v1s:
Biribiri >>>>>> Eu - Last I check Eu lose to Haruhi...and actually someone think that she'll get close to Biribiri?
Kanade > Azusa - As if Taiga (She's technically "only" my #5...but who cares...) is not hard enough, now it's Azusa (my #3/#4...still can't decide which way to go b/t her and Mio). Oh well, time for me to do my SDO calculation just to see whether Azusa had enough juice to be tactically vote over my waifu...(I'm going with Kanade, can't vote against her all the time...)
Mio > Hina - It'll be really close...it's two girls that lost power but still among the top, so hard to say. Of course, Mio did surprised everyone by winning over Azu-nyan...
Shana > Yuki - Just b/c of Shana for Ruby movement...

2v3s:
Kuroneko >>>>> Holo - Just admit that Holo doesn't have a chance...
Taiga > Tomoyo - Taiga has the power to defeat Mio, so a lower tier girl that is up and down shouldn't be a problem
Charlotte > Hitagi - Just b/c neither gets much love most of the time, so in theory, Charlotte, who's stronger, should edge out Hitagi...
Nadeko >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Haruhi - Okay, it'll probably be the other way, but here hoping for an upset (Like every single Haruhi matches...)
Victorique > Gitah - Come on...Yui is just not that good...
Yui-nyan > Saber - Yui-nyan has power to win against most girls except the top of the crop...
Yuri > Kirino - No clue...Yurippe is not that strong, Kirino is not that strong....it's battle b/t the two 2nd weakest girls in their respective tier...of course, I'm voting the other way...

Oh well, time for me to do my SDO calculation (I was too busy last week...)

Last edited by ion475; 2011-09-02 at 13:41.
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Old 2011-09-02, 11:53   Link #3612
Sphire
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: UK
Hmmm, so the tough matches are gonna be in R6. Does that mean less strategic voting is likely? Because, lets face it, now is the time for Shana strategic voting if any for Ruby.

So I expect:
Mikoto > Eu - based on pure strength and that Eu gets high SDO's, so more loses for her the better.
Kanade > Azusa - based on pure strength and that an Azusa win shoots her into necklace contention.
Hina > Mio - depends which Mio shows up, but any strategic voting would better be placed for Hina than Mio. Similar to what happened last year between these two really. Although I do think a bigger turnout favours Mio.
Yuki > Shana - unfortunately, I don't see Shana being able to pull it off without big numbers solely backing her.

For final qualification spots:
Taiga > Tomoyo - based on pure strength and that any boost Shana gets, Taiga gets.
Charlotte > Hitagi - close call this one
Victorique > Gitah Yui - close call, and hoping Vic can do it.
Haruhi > Nadeko - based on pure strength
Yui-nyan > Saber - based on pure strength. Saber will add 3 losses from todays, Sundays and Tuesdays results, opening that final number 16 slot really up. Can Carnival Phantasm help her?
Yuri > Kirino - based on pure strength, but I'm hoping for a Kirino win, especially since a lot of others around her will lose.
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Old 2011-09-02, 13:23   Link #3613
RegalStar
Mishaguji-sama
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
My predictions based on results up to Ruby 4 (only controversial ones - stuff like Kuroneko > Holo is just not worth mentioning)

Shana > Yuki - Shana only lost a bit to Azusa and Mikoto, which I can attribute to people who want Shana to win Ruby and/or don't want her to take another Sapphire easily. With all Shana fans united backing her for Ruby, I think she has a fighting chance. Her outcome with Haruhi in Ruby 5 would be a better compass, though, so I'm withholding my non-tentative judgment until tonight.

Mio > Hina - Looking at the difference between opponents they've both fought, it's pretty plian showing that Mio is stronger.

Hitagi > Charlotte - As I said, Hitagi is just stronger.

Yui > Victorique - The boost Victorique got from Gosick's ending is mostly gone now, and as is I think Yui has a better chance at avenging their match back in prelim 1. Victorique should still try, though, since winning this match would really secure her place in top 16 (especially if Nadeko loses to Hitagi).
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Old 2011-09-02, 13:34   Link #3614
ion475
にこにこにー
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: 国立音ノ木坂学院
My really early SDO projection...

If Shana wins over Yuki:
0. Kanade (7-0, 81 SDO, not eligible)
1. Shana (7-0, 66 SDO)
2. Mio/Hina winner (7-0, 63 SDO)
2a. Biribiri (7-0, 51 SDO, not eligible)
2b. Kuroneko (7-0, 51 SDO, not eligible)
2c. Yuki (6-1, 60 SDO/81 SAO, not eligible)
3. Haruhi (6-1, 57 SDO/78 SAO) <- Assume Haruhi wins over Charlotte, which I don't want to happen...
3b. Taiga (6-1, 45 SDO/66 SAO, not eligible)
4/5/6. Azusa (6-1, 45 SDO/66 SAO) <- She'll get 63 SDO if she manage to pull it off over Kanade, which is only possible if people strategize...
4/5/6. Mio/Hina loser (6-1, 45 SDO/66 SAO)
4/5/6. Victorque (6-1, 45 SDO/66 SAO) <- If and only if she win against Gitah AND Tomoyo. Percentage of winning > Tomoyo is about 75-25, percentage of winning > Gitah is about 55-45...if not...
6/7. Eu-kun (5-2, 54 SDO/96 SAO)
6/7. Yurippe (5-2, 54 SDO/96 SAO)

If Victorique win, then either Eu-kun or Yurippe gets in, depending on VD. If she doesn't (Which is a non-negligible probability), then both Eu-kun and Yurippe gets in.

If Shana lose (I'll throw out the ineligibles...)
1. Mio/Hina winner (7-0, 63 SDO)
2. Haruhi (6-1, 57 SDO/75 SAO)
3. Shana (6-1, 51 SDO/72 SAO)
4/5(/6). Azu-nyan (6-1, 45 SDO/66 SAO)
4/5(/6). Mio/Hina loser (6-1, 45 SDO/66 SAO)
(4/5)/6. Victorique (6-1, 45 SDO/66 SAO)
7. Eu-kun OR Yurippe (5-2, 54 SDO/96 SAO)

Of course, the bottom is still the same (i.e. Victorique losing to either Gitah or Tomoyo = Eu-kun and Yurippe wouldn't have to fight it out).

Of course, there are a LOT other factors that goes in (CC may lose to Ayase and Yami, which would throw Shana's SDO even lower). Yep, Shana for Ruby movement better gather all the votes they can for the necklace...(If such movement even exist outside of AS, that is...)

Other than that, Kanade cruise to yet another #1...for her 4th necklaces. Wait, no more of that...
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Old 2011-09-02, 16:04   Link #3615
RegalStar
Mishaguji-sama
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
I'm personally getting Shana having 69-72 SDO if she beats Yuki (6-9 from Louise if she can defeat Yami - Ayase should be a win for Louise, 9 from CC, 18 from Hitagi, Haruhi and Yuki). She should be in good position to get the necklace if she can defeat Yuki.
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Old 2011-09-02, 16:22   Link #3616
ion475
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: 国立音ノ木坂学院
Quote:
I'm personally getting Shana having 69-72 SDO if she beats Yuki (6-9 from Louise if she can defeat Yami - Ayase should be a win for Louise, 9 from CC, 18 from Hitagi, Haruhi and Yuki). She should be in good position to get the necklace if she can defeat Yuki.
Well, the 3-6 difference is from Charlotte v. Hitagi (I've Hitagi losing), and Seraphim v. Ayase (I've Seraphim losing). Other than that, I got the same number as you. Logical max SDO for Shana is 72 (logical as in "more than 50% winning chance").

But it's an unknown whether Louise can even defeat Yami (or Ayase), or whether CC would get upset or not...Ayase and Yami surprising once in awhile just don't help Shana at all...(I've them as 2nd strongest girl in their own tier after Mikuru and Nagisa, respectively...but Mikuru and Nagisa are in different group, while Yami and Ayase are in the same group (as Shana))...

Having Nagi in the same group as well (I would say she's 2nd strongest Tier 4 girls after Kyou...it's virtually a tie anyway) will never help SDO since Shana's opponent just have no chance...
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Old 2011-09-02, 18:57   Link #3617
RegalStar
Mishaguji-sama
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Ayase's strength has been falling a lot. I'd put her somewhere at tier 5/6 now, around the same level as maybe Fate and Index. Louise remained stable over the year, and given that many Shana fans will likely back up Louise as well (Kugimiya AND SDO boost, so there's no reason for them to not to), I don't envision an Ayase upset happening anytime soon.
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Old 2011-09-02, 20:46   Link #3618
ion475
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: 国立音ノ木坂学院
Quote:
Originally Posted by RegalStar View Post
Ayase's strength has been falling a lot. I'd put her somewhere at tier 5/6 now, around the same level as maybe Fate and Index. Louise remained stable over the year, and given that many Shana fans will likely back up Louise as well (Kugimiya AND SDO boost, so there's no reason for them to not to), I don't envision an Ayase upset happening anytime soon.
Meh...they're about the same strength anyway. Ayase only seems to "fall off" b/c she face the easy groups (Kanade's and Eu's group) early (in Topaz & Amethyst), while Louise seems to "gain strength" just b/c she just face Kanade's & Eu's group (in Sapphire and Emerald). I mean, they have nearly same record. It's not exactly looking good for Ayase in the final rounds, though, with only high chance wins being against Seraphim and Fate, while Louise would have wins against Yami (Maybe...will see in 1.5 hours), Ayase, then Last Order and Huang Lingyin in Diamond...

Consider that Ayase is a Tier 7 girl, though, that's not bad results at all. Granted, she's no Mikuru (Project to finish 23-26...Diamond against Eu's group gives her LOTS of freebie wins...), but consider that Ayase don't even appear that much in her own series...

On last note, right now my projection have Victorique and the Nadeko/Hitagi winner taking 15th/16th spot. Of course, if Hitagi lose to Saber last round (and Hitagi win over Nadeko), it'll be a 3-way tie for the 16th spot. Then if Victorique can't win against Gitah, it'll be a 4-way tie...

No matter what, though, it seems like the last 2 spots are down to Victorique, Hitagi, Nadeko, and Saber...

On the even more opposite side, Laura still have a good chance to NOT go 0-49. We'll see how she perform against Hoki in Diamond...
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Old 2011-09-02, 21:51   Link #3619
RegalStar
Mishaguji-sama
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
It's not just that Ayase had been facing easy opponents before. You can tell now that she's winning by way smaller margins over opponents at similar power to some of the ones she had faced before.

EDIT (After seeing R5 results): Wow, Shana totally slaughtered Haruhi there. She should have absolutely no problem facing Yuki if she can keep this up.

Last edited by RegalStar; 2011-09-02 at 22:05.
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Old 2011-09-02, 22:50   Link #3620
Zeroryoko1974
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My taxes made more sense then all this SDO ABC XYZ discussion
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