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Old 2011-12-30, 19:08   Link #421
Chaos2Frozen
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Wow, it's like every other show just got screwed real hard in the ass

And considering past records, I'd say Shana got the worst of it



Tamayura v1 does 4,077 BDs, DVDs don't rank.

Ikamusume !? v1 does 3,379 BDs, no DVD rank.

Maken-ki! v1 does 3,119 BDs, no DVD rank.

Shana III v1 does 2,828 BDs, no DVD rank. ...Siiiigh.

Mirai Nikki v1 sells 2,336 BDs, no DVD rank.

Ben-To v1 sells 2,101 BDs, no DVD rank.

C3 v1 does 2,039 BDs, no DVD rank....Siiiigh.

MajiKoi v2 sells 2,916 BDs, no DVD rank.

Chihayafuru did not rank in either format, so under 3k.



EDIT:

Oh yeah, and to round of Summer and Spring-

Quote:
Summer update:
Dog Days v6, final volume, starts at 4645/1987, total 6,632, total average 7,880 unless it manages to rank BDs next time (unlikely).

Roukyuubu v4 does 4449/1514, total 5,963.

Denpa Onna v6 gets 4,672 BDs, no DVD rank.

PingDrum v3 gets 4,504 BDs, no DVD rank.

BakaTest Ni v4 does 2346/1280, total 3,626, small increase on previous.

MayoChiki v4 sells 3,368 BDs, no DVD rank.


Spring update:
Hidan no Aria v7, final volume, starts at 3148/1671, total 4,819, a 15% increase on v6, although v6 was unusually low (v7 is nearly identical to v5). Final average, 5,321.
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Old 2011-12-30, 20:31   Link #422
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Oh I am so sad about Chihayafuru...that probably means a second season won't happen.

But I think 4000+ for Peguindrum is pretty good for the type of series it is. Not a hit but not bad either. It's expected that sales will go down after the 1st volume too.
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Old 2011-12-30, 20:47   Link #423
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kirarakim View Post
Oh I am so sad about Chihayafuru...that probably means a second season won't happen.

But I think 4000+ for Peguindrum is pretty good for the type of series it is. Not a hit but not bad either. It's expected that sales will go down after the 1st volume too.
it takes 5-6k to break even

unless Peguindrum made money on something else the anime could be consider a bust sale wise.
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Old 2011-12-30, 20:56   Link #424
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chaos2Frozen View Post
Wow, it's like every other show just got screwed real hard in the ass

And considering past records, I'd say Shana got the worst of it
Shana III doing that poorly is pretty sad to me as well. Seasons 1 and 2 each brought in around 9 K or so DVD sales on average, IIRC, which is not a huge hit but solidly profitable. So for Shana III to be cut more than half from that sales level is sad to see. It strongly suggests that fans (or at least customers) have been lost over time for Shana.


Tamayura ~Hitotose~ doing over 4K in BDs is actually a bit of a pleasant surprise to me. This was not a heavily hyped anime at all, so to see it finish ahead of a lot of the more widely talked about Fall 2011 shows is pretty impressive. Plus, ~Hitotose~ didn't strike me as being a particularly high budget production, so TVO Animations might have actually turned a slight profit on 4.1 K BD sales.


Biggest disappointment is Chihayafuru not even ranking in either format. That's very sad.


I agree with Kirarakim on Penguin Drum. It's holding up pretty good given that competition is quite fierce right now. While I was initially very disappointed in Penguin Drum's sales due to some of the stratospheric sales speculations I once read for the show, I'm now pretty comfortable with it doing between 4 and 5 K. As with Tamayura ~Hitotose~, at least that's around the Manabi Line, IIRC.
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Old 2011-12-30, 20:56   Link #425
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Unless the market has changed (and DVDs are not in fashion anymore)

Though I suppose that makes Nichijou's numbers better on average.
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Old 2011-12-30, 20:59   Link #426
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Originally Posted by Triple_R View Post
Shana III doing that poorly is pretty sad to me as well. Seasons 1 and 2 each brought in around 9 K or so DVD sales on average, IIRC, which is not a huge hit but solidly profitable. So for Shana III to be cut more than half from that sales level is sad to see. It strongly suggests that fans (or at least customers) have been lost over time for Shana.
whoever was in charge took too long green lighting the final season.
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Old 2011-12-30, 21:02   Link #427
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Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
whoever was in charge took too long green lighting the final season.
Agreed.

It does show that pretty popular properties can lose fans if they're left on the shelf for too long...
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Old 2011-12-30, 21:05   Link #428
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I wouldn't be surprised if the sales for the December releases end up being spread out a bit more than usual given the rather massive glut of releases between 21-23 December, including the Bakemonogatari and Toradora BD-Boxes and so on. I really don't know how many series the average consumer purchases per season (I collect about three shows/season on average myself), but a single BD-Box could certainly put a significant dent in one's monthly budget and cause people to hold off until the next time they're paid to catch-up a bit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
whoever was in charge took too long green lighting the final season.
Not really wanting to get into this too much here, but I think the plan all along had been to time it with the end of the novels, but those ended up being stretched out longer than was expected as well. So rather than bridge directly into Shana III after the S-series OVAs, they instead animated Index II (which, by some accounts, had a shorter pre-production gestation period). In the grand scheme of things, I wonder if the amount gained by "striking the iron while it's hot" with Index offset the amount lost for Shana... but who knows. In either case, as has been said before, at least anime fans will see the conclusion, great sales or not.
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Old 2011-12-30, 21:22   Link #429
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
it takes 5-6k to break even

unless Peguindrum made money on something else the anime could be consider a bust sale wise.
It's sales are actually pretty close to 5,000.
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Old 2011-12-30, 21:23   Link #430
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Originally Posted by relentlessflame View Post
I wouldn't be surprised if the sales for the December releases end up being spread out a bit more than usual given the rather massive glut of releases between 21-23 December, including the Bakemonogatari and Toradora BD-Boxes and so on. I really don't know how many series the average consumer purchases per season (I collect about three shows/season on average myself), but a single BD-Box could certainly put a significant dent in one's monthly budget and cause people to hold off until the next time they're paid to catch-up a bit.
except for the fact that several series (working, Horizon, P4) are selling very well despite the Box Sets.

Quote:
Not really wanting to get into this too much here, but I think the plan all along had been to time it with the end of the novels, but those ended up being stretched out longer than was expected as well. So rather than bridge directly into Shana III after the S-series OVAs, they instead animated Index II (which, by some accounts, had a shorter pre-production gestation period). In the grand scheme of things, I wonder if the amount gained by "striking the iron while it's hot" with Index offset the amount lost for Shana... but who knows. In either case, as has been said before, at least anime fans will see the conclusion, great sales or not.
I think they could have bridge it a by releasing a short oav series. Maybe a anime original Prequel series dealing with Shana predecessor. I think that would have keep interest a lot better then the slice of life oav eps they were releasing.
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Old 2011-12-30, 21:25   Link #431
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I wonder if a 12-episode season in 2009 or 2010 might've been a better momentum booster than the Shana S OVA (which opened with a bang but saw its sales halve by the final volume). As a stopgap, it wasn't particularly effective.

Quote:
they instead animated Index II (which, by some accounts, had a shorter pre-production gestation period).
Also, I understand that there were some severe schedule issues during production. The market timing for Index II may have been right, but the season seems to have been rushed out the door or commissioned on too short of a notice.
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Old 2011-12-30, 21:30   Link #432
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I agree with relentless, I do think it was just as planned to have the Anime end at the same time the light novels otherwise they would just drag the story longer. If the Light Novel can't sustain interest in the story then there's really nothing else that can be done.

End of an Era I suppose.

Back on topic with the sales number, the only other title I have vested interest in is C3- I wasn't expecting any miracles, but I did hope it would have the same numbers of Baka-Test at least
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Old 2011-12-30, 21:36   Link #433
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Well, what can one expect in a season where Persona 4 (33k), Working S2 (18k) and Horizon (16k) sold like they did? Haganai will presumably be in profit territory but nowhere near what AIC reaped with Oreimo last year, where it was the high point of the 2010 October season in sales from memory. Who knows what on earth Guilty Crown could do? Really, a lot of these December shows would have been better off in July and maybe could have hit the 5k mark. Only high one from there was Prince no Uta-sama from memory. Lot of 5kish shows that season. October is no longer a weak season.

Fate/Zero has been somewhat smart in this regard delaying a release to March. Although there is a risk of sales of latter volumes of aforementioned shows chewing into it. Still, I get the feeling since it's a box rather than a volume, people are getting the signal of 'If you want this, here's 4-5 months to save up!' and will avoid buying anything else if they really want it. Time will teel whether that strategy paid off.
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Old 2011-12-30, 21:38   Link #434
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I wonder, aside from Nisemonogatari, which series will be the strong sellers for Winter 2012.
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Old 2011-12-30, 21:46   Link #435
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I wonder, aside from Nisemonogatari, which series will be the strong sellers for Winter 2012.
Natsume Yuujin-chou Shi is a safe bet given how constant the sales have been from the past seasons, 9k+

Ano Natsu de Matteru, by the guy that gave us Toradora and Anohana, surely it's enough to guarantee success, and thats not even counting the Onegai nostalgia.


...And that's about all I'm certain.
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Old 2011-12-30, 21:48   Link #436
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I wonder, aside from Nisemonogatari, which series will be the strong sellers for Winter 2012.
I guess RieKu fans will make ZnT profitable but not big.

Milky Holmes got another season due to its sales last year...but not to the degree of strong.

Natsume S4 might plod the 10k the first three seasons have. Its fanbase is loyal.

8-bit are teaming up with Satelight for an Aquarion series. 8-bit leeched a fair bit of loyalty into Infinite Stratos from the Macross Frontier fandom. Maybe this show will determine how much that loyalty lingers? Although the original Aquarion series didn't do that well.

Another is a P.A. Works adaptation. Their production qualities seem to attract sales these days, but the horror genre hasn't been one that has done well in recent times.

Amagami SS - Haruka generated a lot of sales with her arc. Might happen again?

High School DxD could be profitable if the quality of Miyama-Zero's artwork (which is gorgeous in the artbooks of his I have!) can be replicated fairly well and gel in the ecchi crowd - but I somehow doubt it.

Yeah...Nisenmonogatari...It might run away with that season.
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Old 2011-12-30, 22:02   Link #437
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Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
except for the fact that several series (working, Horizon, P4) are selling very well despite the Box Sets.
I don't think that necessarily disproves the theory. It could be that all shows will get a boost over the next few weeks as purchases get spread out, including those already doing well. Or it could be that people who collect multiple series have their "top-priority tier" and their "second-priority tier" (assuming the amount they have to spend per month is fixed). Or it could be that the people who purchased the boxsets are not the same as the people who are purchasing the shows that are selling well (different demographics?). Or... well, who knows. I do think, though, that the sheer amount of new products put on sale within that three-day period is rather daunting, and I have to imagine that there will be some overlap in the customer base between who's purchasing what, so I wonder if there'll be an impact. Of course, time will tell, and I'm not expecting any "miracles" by any stretch.


As for next season, Winter isn't typically a very big season for top-selling releases (with notable breakout exceptions), so yeah, I agree with Chaos2Frozen's two suggestions (maybe ~10k range), and I would guess most of the additional ones Last Sinner mentioned to be around the 4k range. Black Rock Shooter will be an interesting one to watch (not too sure what'll happen). Things like Papakiki and Mooretsu seem like wildcards to me, both apparently committed to two-cour right off the bat; don't expect huge sales for either, but could be decent, depending. I think Lagrange will get a following, but it's hard to picture it selling well. I guess we'll see...
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Old 2011-12-30, 22:14   Link #438
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Quote:
Originally Posted by relentlessflame View Post
I don't think that necessarily disproves the theory. It could be that all shows will get a boost over the next few weeks as purchases get spread out, including those already doing well. Or it could be that people who collect multiple series have their "top-priority tier" and their "second-priority tier" (assuming the amount they have to spend per month is fixed). Or it could be that the people who purchased the boxsets are not the same as the people who are purchasing the shows that are selling well (different demographics?). Or... well, who knows. I do think, though, that the sheer amount of new products put on sale within that three-day period is rather daunting, and I have to imagine that there will be some overlap in the customer base between who's purchasing what, so I wonder if there'll be an impact. Of course, time will tell, and I'm not expecting any "miracles" by any stretch.
Moreover, most of those shows (P4, Working!!, Horizon (even if it isn't gigantic)) already have established fanbases from their origins (game, previous season, and novels) and are pulling many sales from people who, probably, wouldn't be buying anything from the other shows either way and are skewing the statistics. Then you add that to a time of the year where there is a lot of releases and you end up with a definite bottleneck where only the *best* or most *backed* shows make it through with great sales because, while everyone would love to buy everything they love, they cannot and have to make concessions (usually buying things they know are good and, probably, are being added to a pre-existing collection).

That aside, I'm glad Penguin is at least about even on profit/cost. It was a risk and a trip.
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Old 2011-12-30, 22:58   Link #439
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Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
except for the fact that several series (working, Horizon, P4) are selling very well despite the Box Sets.
But those are all on later volumes. They weren't part of the insane v1 release list day that was the 21st and 22nd.
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Old 2011-12-30, 22:59   Link #440
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But those are all on later volumes. They weren't part of the insane v1 release list day that was the 21st and 22nd.
the 16k+ for Horizon was vol1.
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