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Old 2012-01-12, 22:22   Link #27021
UsagiTenpura
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Well I really don't think you're getting at all what I'm saying then.

It's things like arc 4 being seemingly more aimed at us then at Battler or whoever else, as well as "Land" being the planned arc 3 that was dropped ending up being a "lost message bottle" that makes me unable to fully separate Ryuukishi from the story.

To me the overall story we are supposed to figure out is basically why did Yasu write these stories/what messages did she want to send Battler, and why could she still be satisfied with an outsider like Will solving it (the theme of an outsider solving a riddle has been there since arc 1, with the epitaph, and I think outsiders mostly refers to us real readers).

Different things lower the value of Umineko to different people, it seems. To me that'd be the idea that everyone died, possibly murdered by Yasu, and then she wrote stories about it. It's not as much a matter of screwing up the morals of Umineko as much as me simply not getting them at all anymore. Chiru just stops making any sense to me.

Edit: Just to say, what if we had been shown an arc 4 future that basically had no relevance to anything written in the previous arcs. Could Ryuukishi have done that? What purpose to the overall story would such a future play? Who showed us that future? Yasu did? If she did, how can she show anything to us?

Last edited by UsagiTenpura; 2012-01-12 at 22:32.
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Old 2012-01-12, 22:35   Link #27022
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If I take AT's example, it's way too convenient that the same people who "discovered" the message bottles happened to have 10 million dollars transferred to their bank account from another account, related to the Ushiromiya, and that authorities completely overlooked that, as well as the story in every ways.
This is the same universe where someone wired a shitton of money to everyone who died on Rokkenjima and only Ange bothered to look into it.
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Old 2012-01-13, 00:36   Link #27023
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Originally Posted by UsagiTenpura View Post
See that's my problem: You accept she somehow miraculously planned on her message bottles being found (quite the prediction imo, considering the vital role you give to them being found) yet you are bothered with storm prediction/Ange's absence as something impossible to predict.
I don't accept that and haven't for a long time. I think the bottle-stories' "natural discovery" was a hoax set up by Yasu.

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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
I think the answer is here:
RK07 is being pretty cryptic plus there is the issue of translation. I think it's hard to tell exactly what he means here, or even if what he says is outright "truth" or just something he wants us to think about.
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Old 2012-01-13, 01:29   Link #27024
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For people thinking that Yasu couldn't guess that the storm would happen, here's some lines from EP1:

Rudolf: "A typhoon again? ...I guess it's unavoidable, with the family conference being held in October."

Eva: "I just suggested that you might want to propose it [moving the conference to August] to them, since you said you hate typhoons so much."

Sounds like it's happened before, repeatedly.
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Old 2012-01-13, 02:32   Link #27025
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Okay, so thanks to a few random unmarked spoilers I found on the internet (thanks, Encyclopedia Dramatica), I wanna know a few things.

Did Future/Teen Ange
Spoiler for "Episode 8 Spoiler":


And on Beatrice
Spoiler for "More Episode 8 Spoilers":
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Old 2012-01-13, 02:39   Link #27026
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Quote:
Did Future/Teen Ange
Yes, in the Trick Ending, Ange kills Amakusa and the boat guy.

Quote:
I know she's the product of incest, but was the Italian Beatrice her mother or was it their daughter?
Their daughter, the one that Rosa met as a little girl.

There was Beatrice 1, the italian, who had a daughter with Kinzo, Beatrice 2. This was the one Kinzo raped and had another child with.
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Old 2012-01-13, 05:12   Link #27027
UsagiTenpura
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
You're creating an equivalence that doesn't really exist because of your preconceived point of argument. Which you have been doing for several pages now.
Sorry Renall, but you're pretty much the last person I want to hear this from, considering I haven't seen anything about how you approach Umineko that isn't preconceived.

Even what it should have been was already way preconceived by you, it's like you had a specific guidebook on the morals and everything else about Umineko and when it didn't deliver you started to attack it as bad and saying that Ryuukishi didn't do things right. Beside, the idea that 100% of Umineko is a standard mystery is a preconceived point of argument in itself.



What I was trying to point out that you completely missed is that claiming a culprit could predict all of these things and have everything going so perfectly according to plan isn't any less crazy then predicting a storm. As LyricalAura pointed out, such a thing seemed more common then not. Another such thing that seems more common then not is that Ange gets sick and cannot come.
From Yasu's pov, if she wrote them before the accidents/independantly on an accident occuring or not, she'd take the most realistic guess at to what would happen.
1) She guessed there would probably be a storm.
2) She guessed Ange would probably be sick.
3) She guessed a 900 tons bomb would probably ensure everyone's death.
She was right about 2 of it, and wrong about the (imo) one that seems harder to swallow to be wrong about.
Prime doesn't have to occur at all and thus none of this has to be verifiable to still be the most logical guess to make when writing the stories.

I am trying to fight a preconception that most of you seem to have, so whatever.
In the end what baffles me the most tho it that so many people seemingly never noticed that "things of incredibly low probabilities occurring nonetheless" (and especially that Yasu referred to October 4/5 that way in arc 7) is a constant and major theme of the serie. Or alternatively doesn't make anything out of it/doesn't reason it out because it wouldn't be very "realistic" to think about.

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
I don't accept that and haven't for a long time. I think the bottle-stories' "natural discovery" was a hoax set up by Yasu.
Well I guess I can't deny that is somehow possible, but to me it feels like small bomb theories.
Also, well, this sounds like the kind of arguments of intelligent design. Denying all possible coincidence and making them all part of a master plan. Obviously reality and fiction follows very different rules tho, so I think that's fine, however only as long as you accept that even prime is a fiction.

Last edited by UsagiTenpura; 2012-01-13 at 05:23.
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Old 2012-01-13, 06:10   Link #27028
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Originally Posted by UsagiTenpura View Post
Well I guess I can't deny that is somehow possible, but to me it feels like small bomb theories.
Also, well, this sounds like the kind of arguments of intelligent design. Denying all possible coincidence and making them all part of a master plan. Obviously reality and fiction follows very different rules tho, so I think that's fine, however only as long as you accept that even prime is a fiction.
An analogy. Say your friend rolls 4 dice and gets all '5's. You would naturally think "Hm, well that's unusual, but I guess unusual things happen" and think nothing more of it. Now let's say your friend says "Hey, watch this, I'm gonna roll these 4 dice and they will all be '5's" and sure enough when he rolls the dice he gets all '5's. Whoa. Now this is really strange. Can you readily accept your friend's accurate prediction as a pure coincidence? Probably not. Would you think it's magic? No, unless you're Maria. So wouldn't your first and most logical instinct be to suppose your friend was using trick dice? That's what I'm doing.

And just to remind you, things that look like "magic" but are actually tricks are what Beatrice does.
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Old 2012-01-13, 09:35   Link #27029
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Originally Posted by UsagiTenpura View Post
Sorry Renall, but you're pretty much the last person I want to hear this from, considering I haven't seen anything about how you approach Umineko that isn't preconceived.
You're not making any sense at all. I pretty much always argue by academic assumption and investigation, which is precisely the opposite of preconception. Perhaps you don't actually understand what I said?
Quote:
What I was trying to point out that you completely missed is that claiming a culprit could predict all of these things and have everything going so perfectly according to plan isn't any less crazy then predicting a storm.
But you're wrong. It's considerably more crazy. What's your point here? The idea is not that one thing or another could be guessed, but that everything being guessed raises questions about the plausibility of when and where something was authored.
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Prime doesn't have to occur at all and thus none of this has to be verifiable to still be the most logical guess to make when writing the stories.
You really should put thought into the logical consequences of your arguments. Assume there is no Prime. What level of existence, exactly, is the author existing on? And does it make any difference in the plausibility of the author's fictional premise? Consider this for a moment, because I don't think you are.
Quote:
I am trying to fight a preconception that most of you seem to have, so whatever.
In the end what baffles me the most tho it that so many people seemingly never noticed that "things of incredibly low probabilities occurring nonetheless" (and especially that Yasu referred to October 4/5 that way in arc 7) is a constant and major theme of the serie. Or alternatively doesn't make anything out of it/doesn't reason it out because it wouldn't be very "realistic" to think about.
But this is the problem; you are the person who refuses to think about it because you don't want to think about it. We talk about it and speculate on it because we are thinking about it; you are dismissive about it because you aren't. You're projecting heavily here. I don't think anyone who disagrees with you is trying to persecute you for your ideas or suppress some brilliant realization that you've had. I certainly don't have the ability to do that.

"Things of low probability happening all the same" is a conceit of mystery fiction. We know that many things we've seen are specifically crafted mystery fictions, and we accept the improbabilities there. To then turn around and say we must accept all other improbabilities because they are equivalent is intellectually lazy and nonsensical. We have been presented with evidence that the world of the author, whatever that may be, does not behave identically to the world he or she has created. Given this, we must question the coincidences which still seem to be appearing. If the world after - whether itself a fiction or not - appears to express incongruous traits that would be more suited to a genre fiction, yet on the whole does not behave like the genre those traits come from, it's entirely reasonable to speculate as to why that is likely to be.

"Because it's also fiction and it's all the same" is a sledgehammer erasure of (and denial of) any distinctions between the different fictional layers. And we know those differences exist; if nothing else, we know the Meta-World is not a layer of equivalent fictional genre to the other layers. It is pure conceptual fantasy, whatever its origin or meaning. Coincidences in the Meta-World would be treated differently from coincidences in the fictional worlds, and both would be treated differently from coincidences in Ange's world or some theoretical R-Prime world. That's the only rational way to examine them, unless and until such time as it can be demonstrably shown that World X and World Y are genre-equivalent. That is a burden you have repeatedly failed to meet.

Bear in mind we may be permitted to accept different coincidences in different genres. Ange's world may be genre fiction, for example, but it may not be the same genre. What is an acceptable coincidence in that setting may be different from what is acceptable in others, and looking at those contrasts may reveal things that are unacceptable coincidences overall. I think it's an avenue you should explore.
Quote:
Also, well, this sounds like the kind of arguments of intelligent design. Denying all possible coincidence and making them all part of a master plan. Obviously reality and fiction follows very different rules tho, so I think that's fine, however only as long as you accept that even prime is a fiction.
Again, consider the consequences of a Prime universe that is a genre fiction obeying the conventions of genre fiction. First of all, what genre is it? Is it also a mystery? It doesn't follow mystery rules. What exactly would be Ryukishi's intent in writing about a fictional world of a particular genre in which an individual writes a story in another genre? As interesting as it would be to see a noir detective fiction author in a world that obeys noir genre tropes write a Tolkienesque fantasy, Umineko is not a story which appears to concentrate heavily on that theme. After all, we have very little information about what a Prime world would specifically even look like. The assumption that it's "intended to be realistic" is indeed an assumption, but it's not an unreasonable one based on the themes the story has set up and the information that Ryukishi has actually advanced regarding the "real world" he's talked about, however briefly. The very reason we may never have seen it is specifically because he only wants to convey his story through genre, but that doesn't mean it either must itself be a genre fiction or that it doesn't exist. That does not logically follow.
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Old 2012-01-14, 07:40   Link #27030
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Ok, working on an AMV and getting sidetracked, in the 2nd arc

Spoiler for my theory:


but who was the accomplice? They couldn't have done it by themselves, and I know Maria knows whats up, because shes a bit more batshit than usual in this one, but I doubt Maria could do anything to help
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Old 2012-01-14, 10:19   Link #27031
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Originally Posted by zibbazabba905 View Post
Ok, working on an AMV and getting sidetracked, in the 2nd arc

Spoiler for my theory:


but who was the accomplice? They couldn't have done it by themselves, and I know Maria knows whats up, because shes a bit more batshit than usual in this one, but I doubt Maria could do anything to help
"Beatrice" is the one behind all the arcs, Rosa and the servants are the accomplices for ep2. It also doesn't make any sense unless Rosa pinning it on the servants was part of the plan from the start. Or like in the fighting game, where Rosa is an accomplice following Beatrice without knowing absolutely everything thats happening.

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Old 2012-01-14, 18:43   Link #27032
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I was reading the released chapters of the ep5 manga and got reminded about the issue of Shannon and Kanon both appearing at the same time, even when Erika is present. Has there been any satisfying theories of how this is possible? The only one I could think of is the unreliable-narrator thing, but that woudn't explain why Erika did not notice if one of them was missing...

But then again.... episode 5 is very odd in a lot of ways with the murder/murder-game still occuring even after the epitaph is solved (the last part even acknowledged by Beatrice through the letter)...
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Old 2012-01-14, 19:35   Link #27033
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The manga isn't the best depiction of events for a lot of things, but the problem is still there in the visual novel. The consensus answer is "Kanon is standing behind Gohda" because it's the least stupid answer.
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Old 2012-01-14, 19:41   Link #27034
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Originally Posted by Pocuma View Post
I was reading the released chapters of the ep5 manga and got reminded about the issue of Shannon and Kanon both appearing at the same time, even when Erika is present. Has there been any satisfying theories of how this is possible? The only one I could think of is the unreliable-narrator thing, but that woudn't explain why Erika did not notice if one of them was missing...
We've had lots of argument about this. My theory has been that the discrepancy lies somewhere between Bernkastel's "reading" and Lambdadelta's "writing" of End, and not in any of Piece!Erika's observations. To put it another way, the error is on a metaphysical level rather than a physical one. This probably supposes that the transmission of information between the player and the player's piece is in some way imperfect.

Not everyone finds this whole idea sensible, however.
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Old 2012-01-14, 19:42   Link #27035
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Well, yea, a common criticism of Wanderer's idea is that it makes Erika's reliable perspective effectively meaningless, because it's not actually reliable, then.
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Old 2012-01-14, 20:43   Link #27036
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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
The manga isn't the best depiction of events for a lot of things, but the problem is still there in the visual novel. The consensus answer is "Kanon is standing behind Gohda" because it's the least stupid answer.
Yes the manga does makes things a bit more confusing in certain scens, but in this case it just reminded me of the issue itself.

Both Shannon and Kanon are (suppostly) present during the "the number of people in this parlor now is equal to the total number of people on this island" scene. According to the VN's narrator (Battler in that scene) Shannon is standing together with Kumazawa behind Erika while Kannon is being unsociable. I guess that one could get around this scene with a combination of the unreliable-narrator theory and the "Kanon is standing behind Gohda"-theory you mentioned... or just say that Erika was not aware of that red truth and therefore did not care about not seeing Kanon (or Shannon) in that room at the time.

And the scene outside Kinzo's study is quite more vague in the VN than the manga regarding the two of them (Kanon spoke in that scene but I do not remember if Shannon did anything...). Everyone who is suppostly still "alive" at this point (beside Kinzo) is there, and since Erika is looking for a suspect it seems odd for her to not notice if someone wasn't present. How everyone else could miss it is also odd, but I guess everyone else on the island is already in on the ShKanon thing by now...

And I have to ask.... "Kanon is standing behind Gohda" is the least stupid answer? What more kinds of answers exist then?

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
We've had lots of argument about this. My theory has been that the discrepancy lies somewhere between Bernkastel's "reading" and Lambdadelta's "writing" of End, and not in any of Piece!Erika's observations. To put it another way, the error is on a metaphysical level rather than a physical one. This probably supposes that the transmission of information between the player and the player's piece is in some way imperfect.
I'm not sure I undestand... Do you mean that if Bern missread/missunderstand something that Lambda "wrote" then Erika will be given the information the way that Bern "read it" and not the way Lambda "wrote it"? Kind of like Bern re-wrote the scene the way she understood it and then Erika only read this re-written version?
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Old 2012-01-14, 20:43   Link #27037
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But there isn't really an answer at all that isn't stupid, unfortunately. If you can think of one let us know!
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Old 2012-01-14, 21:24   Link #27038
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Another thought... As I was thinking about this issue and looking a bit at earlier conversations you guys had I started to wonder if there might be two kinds of answers to this... You guys have been discussing about Yasu only having a confirmed meta-motive while trying to figure out a "real" motive for the murderers (if we assume she did kill anyone). Could Erika not notice the ShKanon-thing be something similar?

If we go only with a meta-only-motive one could guess she might not have noticed it because she was going to frame Natsuhi anyway. So unless Shannon or Kanon was of any importance to the Natsuhi-culprit theory Erika would not pay them any attension (Kind of like some people do/did when looking for ways to "prove" their own theories while igoring things/hints that did not fit in with it). And even if she later noticed something seemed odd about them she was to pridefull to change her Natsuhi-culprit theory so she just ignored any sign of ShKanon.

If we go by a non-meta motive... I'm to tired to think about a proper one right now so I'll think some more about it tomorrow... when I'm not falling asleep on the keybord...
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Old 2012-01-14, 21:58   Link #27039
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I agree that there is no great answer, but it's not a great problem either. Erika had already decided her theory by that point so maybe she just didn't care. After all servants in the mystery genre are usually very trivial characters. Like furniture.

If at some point she couldn't locate Shannon or Kanon and started suspecting them, I'm sure LD could clear them with clever use of the red...
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Old 2012-01-14, 22:16   Link #27040
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I'm kinda alone on it, but I haven't been dissuaded that "In EP5, and possibly EP5 alone, Lambda just gave Kanon his own body, for either shiggles on Lambda's part, or a thought experiment on Ryukishi's / Tohya's / Featherine's / whomever's part. It explains the 'lack of love' in EP5, allows Erika's Detective Authority to still actually work like we're told, and makes EP6 Genius Battler more entertainingly insidious because he would've known Erika had a false impression of the true number of physical bodies involved in his game."

To be clear, the problem I have with "Kanon behind Godha" is that it makes Erika unforgivably stupid and out of character. And the problem I have with "she already decided to blame Natsuhi", is that if she'd already noticed a discrepancy in the appearance of Shannon or Kanon's characters, she almost certainly would've mentioned in while trying to solve the EP6 Guest Room, the only puzzle in the entire series that actually necessitates a Shkanon solution.

...of course, at this point we've discussed it so many times, that sometimes I'll just concede to "Kanon was behind Godha"'s sentiment because someone, was it Aura, suggested that Kanon was behind Erika the whole time giving her bunny ears as everyone else in the parlor tried to stifle their laughter. And that's just freakin' hilarious.

Last edited by Kealym; 2012-01-14 at 22:18. Reason: forgot
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