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Old 2012-02-04, 16:13   Link #27641
musouka
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Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma View Post
This is one of the possibilities, it has a loads of problems that we've already gone trough in the past few pages. Theres also the possibility that they weren't the same person, thus crippling your theory entirely. That the culprit really was Battler as TMF19YA. Or that it was one of the kids/Rosa from the first twilight.
Which completely ignores that Will specifies that TMF19YA is, in fact, Yasu. But, hey, why are we discussing this at all? Most logical conclusion based on the information given? Pffft. If we paid attention to that, this thread wouldn't have 20K+ replies, amirite?
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Old 2012-02-04, 16:17   Link #27642
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Originally Posted by musouka View Post
It doesn't matter. Yasu as a person has a clear reason for revenge. As I said, it's the gender issue. The thing Natsuhi caused. By shoving Yasu off a cliff. In fact, it's the only thing that makes sense in this situation, as Yasu has already "gained" back everything they "lost" through Natsuhi's actions except the one thing that can't be returned.
Not even close. If you look at the difference between Yasuda and Lion, you can see that she didn't gain back hardly anything at all. She got the gold, yeah, but... That's about it. She didn't care about the gold. And, her gender isn't the only thing that couldn't be returned.
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Old 2012-02-04, 16:21   Link #27643
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Originally Posted by musouka View Post
Which completely ignores that Will specifies that TMF19YA is, in fact, Yasu. But, hey, why are we discussing this at all? Most logical conclusion based on the information given? Pffft. If we paid attention to that, this thread wouldn't have 20K+ replies, amirite?
Oh well then, I guess we can conclude that all the holes are indeed there and there is no point in trying to fill them up because they are bottomless. If only RK did a better job at writing this, we wouldn't suffer trough it
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Old 2012-02-04, 16:26   Link #27644
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Originally Posted by Toku View Post
Not even close. If you look at the difference between Yasuda and Lion, you can see that she didn't gain back hardly anything at all. She got the gold, yeah, but... That's about it. She didn't care about the gold. And, her gender isn't the only thing that couldn't be returned.
I think you're the one not looking at the difference between Yasu and Lion, to be honest. Yasu had a harder life than Lion, but even as Yasu she had people she considered "friends" and "family", until she found out about their betrayal. Lion represents Yasu's longing to go back and redo her life as it was originally intended to happen--ie, raised as a man.
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Old 2012-02-04, 16:36   Link #27645
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Fun fact, the Man From 19 Years Ago is voiced by DAISUKE ONO in the PS3 version.

So...yea, my money's on "Battler did it for Yasu's sake regardless of whether or not she wanted it."
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Old 2012-02-04, 16:37   Link #27646
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Am I the only one who wonders if TMF19YA might actually not be Yasuda? I mean, I don't really have any evidence for it, but then again, the only things that even point to it being Yasuda in the first place are:
1. Grudge against Natsuhi.
2. Will bringing up TMF19YA when referring to Yasuda, in EP7.
3. The age 19.

That's about it... And so, actually, it's not necessarily Yasuda at all. It might have simply been:
1. (meta level) Lambda trying to give a hint at Yasuda's identity.
2. (game board level) Someone trying to use Yasuda's identity to mess with Natsuhi. They might not even be 19 years old.

In particular, something that I keep wondering about is the fact that Battler seems to be deeply involved in some plot in EP5. I wonder if, maybe, Battler and Yasuda are actually working together in EP5. That would be ironic, since...
I've been considering Yasuda might not be involved however I can't get past some points that require her involvement:

1) Battler receiving Kinzo's ring
2) the servants and Nanjo switching sides against Natsuhi
3) someone knowing about the baby of 19 years ago

1) We might force the issue and say that the ring Battler is wearing is false. Eva knows it well so she could have made a copy due to plan X she had. When Battler discovered the gold she changed her plan and handed the ring to Battler. The fact that ShKannon was present when Battler received the ring is a coincidence and the ring is similar enough to the original no one realized is a copy... or maybe was made by the man who made Kinzo's ring... and that in EP 4 conveniently pretended to recognize it as the true ring and not as a copy he made because afraid of being involved in the Rokkenjima incident (this would imply Eva/Ange's ring is a copy...).

It's possible but so far the canon didn't bother hinting to something similar... unless you consider Maria acceptiong another plushie as Sakutarou as hint that a copy might be accepted to replace the original.

2) Nanjo falsified his autopsies and Kumasawa and Kanon told the others Genji was dead so they're in with the siblings when previously they were loyal to Natsuhi. The servants can be corrupted, all right, even Our confession confirmed this but I'm not sure if they would switch sides without Yasuda's permission, especially Genji who faked being dead. Also if Yasuda let herself be corrupted she was clearly against Natsuhi... so maybe she wasn't the mastermind but she was part of the plot.

3) This is the hardest. The calls started prior to the arrival of the siblings but there are really few people who knows about the baby so, although isn't completely impossible, is hard to figure the siblings found out.
To be more exact the ones who know are:
- Kinzo (dead and it's unlikely he talked about it)
- Natsuhi (I bet she only told Krauss)
- Krauss (who likely didn't talk with his siblings)
- Genji, Kumasawa and Nanjo (unlikely they talked about this with the siblings unless they were told by Yasuda)

The only way to work through this is to assume that when the siblings researched about Krauss' activities they ended up talking with some relative of the servant that died when the baby fell and that knew that said servant was entrusted a baby. They might have figured since no one heard about the baby he also fell from the cliff and his/her death was kept as a secret.
However for their plan to work they need to know:
- Natsuhi didn't make sure the baby was dead.
- the baby was a boy or either that Natsuhi didn't know the baby's sex.

So hum... they could have made a wild guess about the baby's sex assuming that Kinzo wouldn't adopt a female and that Natsuhi was so shocked by that fact that even if she had seen the baby's corpse she would still be tricked.

However, though it can work is again a solution that seems weak.

Another possibility I had considered is that as a child Battler might have accidentally heard someone, let's say Kumasawa and Genji, talking about the incident. He was/is pretty informal so he might have wandered in the servants side of the house, maybe searching for Shannon or for a hideout in a game of hide and seek and overheard them. Right then he gave no importance to the thing or didn't quite understand what it meant. Then he grew up and then his maternal grandfather, before dying, tells him he's not Asumu's son, though he has no idea who's his mother is. Battler remembers what he had head as a kid, made 2 & 2 and began the phonecalls.
This would explain how Battler couldn't say he was Asumu's son and would fit with Battler accusing himself of being TMF19YA as well as Beato thinking Natsuhi really dropped him in EP 6.

This however would imply Battler has a vengeful nature, and there's no hint of this... so, as you can see although I can come up with theories about how people might know about the baby... well they don't look convincing enough.

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Actually, why does everyone put such significance on Ronove's line about it being a game without love? This was only said once, and by him alone. Sure, it may very well mean that the motive isn't about love anymore (or it may mean something else), but it doesn't necessarily mean that there is no love to be found anywhere in EP5.
Well, I admit I'd like an explanation for that line.
Basically we're told it means that Lambda is doing with Beato's gameboard something Beato wouldn't do and that's tied to love.
Beato's gameboard existed to send a message to her childhood love having the whole tragedy tied to Battler's promise.
If you remove that tie you might get a game that's not motivated by love and therefore is 'loveless'.

Just speculation though.
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Old 2012-02-04, 16:54   Link #27647
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Originally Posted by musouka View Post
Which completely ignores that Will specifies that TMF19YA is, in fact, Yasu. But, hey, why are we discussing this at all? Most logical conclusion based on the information given? Pffft. If we paid attention to that, this thread wouldn't have 20K+ replies, amirite?
Just because TMF19YA is presumably the baby Natsuhi threw off the cliff(with said baby being Yasuda), doesn't mean it necessarily the case. I get your point, but as Renall pointed out, Shannon could have simply told everyone in front of Natsuhi that Kinzo is dead with GENSAWAJO backing her up, therefore royally screwing her over. But if we assume she's out to make Natsuhi suffer as much as possible, we run into the problem of Shkanon, as CoaNiMa pointed out, hinders her ability to pursue Natsuhi, as all DTD needs to do is gather everyone in one place(which she did), notice that Shannon/Kanon is missing and point that out(which she didn't) and Yasuda is hosed.

EDIT: @jjblue To respond to point 1, in the Ep7TP(as far as I remember), there's no mention of the ring, yet we know Eva gets it(and not from Yasuda's corpse). I'd like to think Yasuda leaves the ring(and maybe a letter) in the gold room for whomever solves the epitath(as she can't wait there all day). There's no one else in the gold room besides Erika and Battler as well.
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Old 2012-02-04, 16:57   Link #27648
musouka
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Originally Posted by SonozakiUshiromiya View Post
Just because TMF19YA is presumably the baby Natsuhi threw off the cliff(with said baby being Yasuda), doesn't mean it necessarily the case. I get your point, but as Renall pointed out, Shannon could have simply told everyone in front of Natsuhi that Kinzo is dead with GENSAWAJO backing her up, therefore royally screwing her over. But if we assume she's out to make Natsuhi suffer as much as possible, we run into the problem of Shkanon, as CoaNiMa pointed out, hinders her ability to pursue Natsuhi, as all DTD needs to do is gather everyone in one place(which she did), notice that Shannon/Kanon is missing and point that out(which she didn't) and Yasuda is hosed.
Then isn't the obvious conclusion that Erika is in on the Natsuhi persecution?
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Old 2012-02-04, 17:04   Link #27649
Cao Ni Ma
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Then isn't the obvious conclusion that Erika is in on the Natsuhi persecution?
This leads to the Erika is an idiot hole in EP6.
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Old 2012-02-04, 17:07   Link #27650
musouka
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This leads to Erika is an idiot hole in EP6.
Not really. Just because Erika was brought into the fold on Natsuhi being a target doesn't mean she was told the truth about Shannon and Kanon. Her attention being entirely focused on bringing Natsuhi down in EP5, means that she neglected the obvious inconsistency about the servants, which blinded her in EP6, even when Battler was deliberately waving it in front of her face.
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Old 2012-02-04, 17:10   Link #27651
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The first phone call happened before the family conference. And that means that Battler knew about the incident...which is impossible?
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Old 2012-02-04, 17:14   Link #27652
Cao Ni Ma
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Not really. Just because Erika was brought into the fold on Natsuhi being a target doesn't mean she was told the truth about Shannon and Kanon. Her attention being entirely focused on bringing Natsuhi down in EP5, means that she neglected the obvious inconsistency about the servants, which blinded her in EP6, even when Battler was deliberately waving it in front of her face.
Seems like we are just gonna keep spinning around the Erika EP5 issue it seems.
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Old 2012-02-04, 17:14   Link #27653
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Oh well then, I guess we can conclude that all the holes are indeed there and there is no point in trying to fill them up because they are bottomless. If only RK did a better job at writing this, we wouldn't suffer trough it
In an interview, Ryukishi says that while he didn't want to give the answers away so easily, he guarantees that those who don't stop thinking will eventually arrive at one, single answer. So, really, these holes are not bottomless at all.

...Actually, it seems I've misunderstood the point you were trying to make here. My bad.

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Originally Posted by musouka View Post
I think you're the one not looking at the difference between Yasu and Lion, to be honest. Yasu had a harder life than Lion, but even as Yasu she had people she considered "friends" and "family", until she found out about their betrayal. Lion represents Yasu's longing to go back and redo her life as it was originally intended to happen--ie, raised as a man.
I somewhat agree. I admit that I don't like the whole idea of "Lion is Yasuda's only hope" because that actually doesn't make that much sense to me. However, I believe that Natsuhi's actions certainly have caused Yasuda a lot of problems. First of all, Lion grew up with loving parents, while Yasuda was an orphan and a servant. And, because for several years she was one of the most experienced and reliable servants, Natsuhi was always making her job way harder than it had to be. Life as a servant was not very rewarding at all. Yasuda mainly only stayed there because she wanted to wait for Battler, and because leaving would mean Beatrice's death (these are the only reasons I can gather for her staying, anyway). And it's true that she didn't really have any friends (the first Shannon is heavily implied to have been an imaginary friend) for quite some time.

Even so, unless Natsuhi is somehow the mastermind behind the entire Battler-not-returning thing, I can't personally see how it could be that Natsuhi completely ruined her life and trapped her in a dead-end fate. Which is never even implied as far as I can tell. And in fact, it's implied that she never realized that Yasuda was the kid she dropped off a cliff in the first place, so that probably couldn't be used as a motive.

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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
1)
What I don't like here is the assumption of "plan X." We have no reason to believe that the ring is fake in the first place. There's just way too many unsupported assumptions here for my liking.

Quote:
2)
So basically, the siblings went and threatened/bribed the servants, or something. This is not too terribly implausible. And if it is something like this, it could explain why Yasuda decided to go along with the plan and hand the ring to Battler as a bonus (and maybe because she does want Battler to be the Head).

Quote:
3)
The idea that they might have made this up as a plot to threaten Natsuhi strikes me as interesting, but... I don't know.

Quote:
Battler remembers what he had heard as a kid, made 2 & 2 and began the phonecalls.
This would explain how Battler couldn't say he was Asumu's son and would fit with Battler accusing himself of being TMF19YA as well as Beato thinking Natsuhi really dropped him in EP 6.
He couldn't say he was Asumu's son because he was actually Kyrie's son. This was explained in EP8, if you got Rudolf's and Kyrie's riddles right. But, again, this is just too many assumptions, so I can't really buy this.

Quote:
Well, I admit I'd like an explanation for that line.
Basically we're told it means that Lambda is doing with Beato's gameboard something Beato wouldn't do and that's tied to love.
Beato's gameboard existed to send a message to her childhood love having the whole tragedy tied to Battler's promise.
If you remove that tie you might get a game that's not motivated by love and therefore is 'loveless'.

Just speculation though.
It's all confusing. I still don't quite understand Yasuda's motive right now. I have a number of guesses, but I don't really know if any of them are right... Or even close. About the only thing I can conclude with 100% certainty is that a huge factor is love, and that the conflict in her heart over whether she should stay with George or go to Battler played a big part.

In an interview, Ryukishi said that if you've never honestly fallen in love, you wouldn't be able to understand the motive. That's probably why I don't understand.
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Old 2012-02-04, 17:17   Link #27654
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Seems like we are just gonna keep spinning around the Erika EP5 issue it seems.
I'm not really sure why people are assuming Erika has access to the things she saw in EP5 anyway. If her photographic memory is a result of GM-sanctioned "Detective Authority", it would make sense for her to lose exactly "what she saw" at the time when everyone was gathered together in EP5, during which her attention would have been on the wrong thing (at the time), and now she can't go back to check and verify to see if there was anything she missed because she no longer has the authority to do so.
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Old 2012-02-04, 17:25   Link #27655
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I'm not really sure why people are assuming Erika has access to the things she saw in EP5 anyway. If her photographic memory is a result of GM-sanctioned "Detective Authority", it would make sense for her to lose exactly "what she saw" at the time when everyone was gathered together in EP5, during which her attention would have been on the wrong thing (at the time), and now she can't go back to check and verify to see if there was anything she missed because she no longer has the authority to do so.
Its not bound to her authority. Since in EP6 its stated that she didn't have a whole lot of time to investigate the scenes so she hastily committed them to her photographic memory. Though, that could be the omniscient narrator messing with us. Piece Erika might as well have forgotten everything that she knew in EP5, but the meta one didn't. She would know that she gathered everyone for the denouement, as is customary for the detective. This comes back to the argument of whether or not M.Erika had greater control over P.Erika.

Quote:
In an interview, Ryukishi said that if you've never honestly fallen in love, you wouldn't be able to understand the motive. That's probably why I don't understand.
RK07s definition of love is really fucked up. Please dont follow it.
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Old 2012-02-04, 17:39   Link #27656
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RK07s definition of love is really fucked up. Please dont follow it.
What do you mean by that exactly?
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Old 2012-02-04, 17:50   Link #27657
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What do you mean by that exactly?
Silly you! You mean you wouldn't commit ritualistic serial murder because a boy made a promise to you 6 years ago while you both of you were children? I totally would teehee~!
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Old 2012-02-04, 17:56   Link #27658
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Silly you! You mean you wouldn't commit ritualistic serial murder because a boy made a promise to you 6 years ago while you both of you were children? I totally would teehee~!
The sheer amount of sarcasm you managed to pack into three sentences there, is pretty amazing.

I wouldn't do it. That said, I think there is more to it than that. And, I would like to understand Yasuda and her motive.

In the end, the reason I want to understand, is just curiosity. Since I'm a big fan of Umineko, and Beato in particular. Even so, I don't really like it when people don't even try to understand things from someone else's perspective just because, at a glance, it goes against their morals. Put simply, if you don't want to understand something, then you can be sure that you never will.
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Old 2012-02-04, 18:17   Link #27659
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The first phone call happened before the family conference. And that means that Battler knew about the incident...which is impossible?
Why is it impossible?
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Old 2012-02-04, 18:24   Link #27660
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There's nothing hinting towards him knowing about it. It's supposed to be a secret, shared only by Genji, Kumasawa, Nanjo and Yasu (and I don't mean the accident, but the fact that the baby survived). How would Battler know about it?
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