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Old 2012-03-10, 23:11   Link #1
Ridwan
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History and Counterfactual speculations discussions

This thread is dedicated for those who like discussing about history and wondering about "what if" alternate historical scenarios departing from certain consequential points within history had it been bended to the course differing from where it went to in our RL history. Like, what if Napoleon Bonaparte had won the Battle of Waterloo, what if Central Powers had won WW1, that kind of thing...

Alternate history is a "game" that can serve a number of purposes. It can be to speculate what would have been simply to satisfy curiosity, or to visualize the world you would like to be in more comprehensively, or even to create a new perspective or "feel" one would not normally find in the real world, in observing history. It can also be utilized to create a setting for a story, and a number of series and novels have done this. The most prominent example from anime realm being "Code Geass". Needless to say, it is pretty much a portal that leads to the discussions about history itself, and that's why I lump both topics together in a single thread.


That's all for the dry, boring introductory opening Before we start however, there will be some rules that we need to abide to in order to keep this thread orderly and sense-friendly as possible, that are :

Quote:
1) Try to be as comprehensive, logical and reality-grounded as you possibly can. That is, not only you should best avoiding downright ASB propositions, but you should also cling strongly to the natural rules of how things realistically work based on factors applying force onto a case in question. Like say, if Japan has managed to win at Midway, it won't lead to Japanese occupation of western US, since the disparity of production capability between two nations were already just too large. Or, whenever postulating about a scenario where US annexes all of Mexico, in 19th century, it won't going to lead US becoming hyperpower expansionist all-conquering, liberal non-racist empire, instead it will be tied to a whole mess of hostile resource black hole that will print a bitter chapter in US history. That's not mentioning even the probability of that happening in the first place, and I said all that with the knowledge of All Mexico Movement in mind. And, yes, it will require you to have insights and logics necessary before you dip yourself into a topic.

Basically, it's better to doubt the knowledges and perceptions you have rather then being dragged into flame wars and moron-fests. There is always someone out there who knows what you don't, and don't be shy to appeal for his/her help. It will be best if we can build an environment in which everyone can help each other in expanding their insights and thus, benefitting everyone.

2) Be civil and cool. If you happen to have something to inform the other with, don't patronize and insult the other party's unfortunate ignorance on the subject. If someone opposes to the points you've brought up, defend it with valid means and be ready to be proven wrong. If you are opposed to or doubting what the others have said, question them unconfrontationally. Just do your best to keep this thread cool and civilized !

3) Please, and again, please, leave your political allegiance at the door. Since we're going to struggle to have the most accurate pictures achievable, objectivity is dead necessary ! You may don't like whatever insensibilities that have been done in the name of religion as much as the next person, for example, or maybe you don't like the absence of free speech and suffrage in autocratic regimes as much as the next person. But really, those cases need much more then spontaneous moral and ideological outrage to be understood thoroughly. And to understand the intricacies of how history has shaped those things, the role of perspective of a meta observer is crucial.

And now I will kick-start this thread with a map that I've created and some stories about it. I'm planning it as the setting for my story. It's about a world of cultural multi-polarity :

Spoiler for Tentative name : The Dragon, The Star, and The Shadow of God:


That's all for now. This alternate universe is still in the developing phase, so I'm not married to most of the features mentioned above. Comments, questions, and criticisms will be much appreciated And of course, for everyone who's currently also engaging in building an alternate history universe like I do, I insist you guys to discuss your projects in this thread
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Last edited by Ridwan; 2012-03-10 at 23:31.
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Old 2012-03-10, 23:16   Link #2
Sumeragi
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Ah, nice way to start the thread. I'll start contributing when I get some stuff done.
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Old 2012-03-10, 23:20   Link #3
Ridwan
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Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
Ah, nice way to start the thread. I'll start contributing when I get some stuff done.
I'll be waiting. And by the way, you still owe me a story about McArthur and pro-Japan lobby in US
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Old 2012-03-10, 23:24   Link #4
Endless Soul
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Sounds interesting. However may I suggest you put the map picture in it's own spoiler tag? With the text and the map in the same tag, there's an awful lot of side scrolling just to read everything.
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Old 2012-03-10, 23:31   Link #5
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In b4 9/11 Conspiracies. And I'm not willing to go in that direction, despite mentioning it.

===

But, a "what if" thread, huh?

So, the kind of analysis you're looking for can have a similar depth as this:
http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-englan...s-helmet-catch

Except applied to actual history. Well, lemme think about some Bizzaro Worlds.
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Old 2012-03-10, 23:33   Link #6
Ridwan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Endless Soul View Post
Sounds interesting. However may I suggest you put the map picture in it's own spoiler tag? With the text and the map in the same tag, there's an awful lot of side scrolling just to read everything.
It's done. Now in return, do you have any thought about my world-setting ?

@Kyuu : Let's leave conspiracy theories outside of this thread.
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Old 2012-03-10, 23:42   Link #7
LeoXiao
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aegir View Post
It's done. Now in return, do you have any thoughts about my world-setting ?
HE may not have any, but I do.

What's the PoD? How did China avoid getting its outer borderlands taken by Russia, or did it fight to get them back? Other than that, it seems cool. I would suggest you focus on one or two regions though, rather than trying to cover the whole thing.
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Old 2012-03-10, 23:58   Link #8
monir
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So the thread is pretty much about the fans of history who would try to recreate an alternative take by observing the basic facts. Okay, a fan creation thread! The thread is moved to the Fan Creation section of the forum.
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Old 2012-03-11, 00:18   Link #9
Ridwan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by monir View Post
So the thread is pretty much about the fans of history who would try to recreate an alternative take by observing the basic facts. Okay, a fan creation thread! The thread is moved to the Fan Creation section of the forum.
Ah, yes. A better place for this thread. Thanks ! Though I thought it's essentially outside of anime realm, and that's why I hesitated to post it in Fan Creation and instead chose General Chat.

@LeoXiao : They seized it back during the First Great War, and that's why Vladivostok (name changed back to Hǎishēnwǎi) still has a significant population of Russians up to modern days.

Well, since the divergences I've chosen will both exert global impact, it's the burden I have to bear. Besides, I indeed want to see a very different world anyway, one that doesn't solely look up to the western civilization for modernism.
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Old 2012-03-11, 00:21   Link #10
Endless Soul
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aegir View Post
It's done. Now in return, do you have any thought about my world-setting ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aegir View Post
China, skipping its warlords period, will become a tougher opponent for Japan to later war with.
Well, let's start off with some questions regarding this time period, especially regarding China and Japan. In Real Life™ we know that Japan was technologically superior, militarily speaking, to China. Is this the same case in Alternate 1936™? Has China managed to at least develop their own aircraft design at this time or are they still relying on imports from other nations.

Japan's Imperial Japanese Navy, are all the ships that were present in Real Life™ are in Alternate 1936™, or did Japan follow the Washington Treaty up until this time. Was there even a Washington treaty?

Endless "Bizzaro world" Soul
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Old 2012-03-11, 01:05   Link #11
Ridwan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Endless Soul View Post
Well, let's start off with some questions regarding this time period, especially regarding China and Japan. In Real Life™ we know that Japan was technologically superior, militarily speaking, to China. Is this the same case in Alternate 1936™? Has China managed to at least develop their own aircraft design at this time or are they still relying on imports from other nations.

Japan's Imperial Japanese Navy, are all the ships that were present in Real Life™ are in Alternate 1936™, or did Japan follow the Washington Treaty up until this time. Was there even a Washington treaty?

Endless "Bizzaro world" Soul
Japan would still remain technologically superior, but China has indeed managed to develop indigenous aviation industry. Initially however, they will have to struggle through the storm in order to catch up with Japan, and it will only be after the war that they would emerge as a rising military power on the regional, and then the world scale.

As for naval limitation treaty, I'm still wondering. I'm still thinking whether to put Wilson in charge of US during 1910s. There are quite many differences this world's First Great War have from RL's WW1, primarily that Germany pretty much didn't set up any colony in Africa. But they'd still have some in Pacific. And I guess since the Great War will still exhaust its participants, maybe more then in RL due to different alliance system, similar situation that will lead to Washington Naval Treaty will still emerge post war. Thanks for pointing this out. I will think more about it
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Old 2012-03-11, 01:13   Link #12
LeoXiao
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aegir View Post
Ah, yes. A better place for this thread. Thanks ! Though I thought it's essentially outside of anime realm, and that's why I hesitated to post it in Fan Creation and instead chose General Chat.
Actually, the thread has now been sent to a place that way fewer people will look at.

Quote:
@LeoXiao : They seized it back during the First Great War, and that's why Vladivostok (name changed back to Hǎishēnwǎi) still has a significant population of Russians up to modern days.
Ah, so I'm guessing China avoided the chaos of the 19th and early 20th centuries? Are the Qing still in power?
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Old 2012-03-11, 01:34   Link #13
Ridwan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LeoXiao View Post
1) Actually, the thread has now been sent to a place that way fewer people will look at.


2) Ah, so I'm guessing China avoided the chaos of the 19th and early 20th centuries? Are the Qing still in power?
1) So it does seem. At least it should be a more safe-guarded place compared to the more public General Chat. Then again, it's not anime related, and thus I still doubt that here's the right place for this thread.

2) They avoided the 20th century warlord era, but up to Xinhai revolution, their history didn't meaningfully differ from RL. Only that during Boxer rebellion, instead of Eight Nations Alliance, you have Nine Nations Alliance, adding Ottoman Empire into the coallition. I wonder how much this will render Chinese muslims alienated later down the line, and the Chinese general policy of later times towards Islam religion. But I envision the creation of relatively significant Hui community in Nusantara (Indonesia) due to this. And, there will also likely be the tension in Central Asia between Chinese in Xinjiang and Ottoman dominion of Turkestan, out of former's suspicion regarding possible Pan-Islamic agenda to threaten Chinese territorial integrity.
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Old 2012-03-11, 01:58   Link #14
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So you created the thread at last.

Well, honestly I don't have anything in mind right now. I enjoy reading AH (alternate history), but I can't create one. Though, maybe here's some thought:

What if Al-Andalus existed longer or Reconquista of Iberia plain failed or delayed a great deal? I've heard that Granada played a crucial part in the European world's discovery of new new worlds, so I'm thinking what this would lead to.
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Old 2012-03-11, 02:14   Link #15
LeoXiao
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aegir View Post
1) So it does seem. At least it should be a more safe-guarded place compared to the more public General Chat. Then again, it's not anime related, and thus I still doubt that here's the right place for this thread.
We shall see.

Quote:
2) They avoided the 20th century warlord era, but up to Xinhai revolution, their history didn't meaningfully differ from RL. Only that during Boxer rebellion, instead of Eight Nations Alliance, you have Nine Nations Alliance, adding Ottoman Empire into the coallition. I wonder how much this will render Chinese muslims alienated later down the line, and the Chinese general policy of later times towards Islam religion. But I envision the creation of relatively significant Hui community in Nusantara (Indonesia) due to this. And, there will also likely be the tension in Central Asia between Chinese in Xinjiang and Ottoman dominion of Turkestan, out of former's suspicion regarding possible Pan-Islamic agenda to threaten Chinese territorial integrity.
So China only had 3 years between the Revolution (and somehow avoiding the fracturing of the New Army; I'm guessing that Yuan Shikai doesn't play a big role ITTL) and taking back its land from Russia? Surprising how fast they (the Chinese) were able to band together get something done.
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Old 2012-03-11, 03:31   Link #16
Ridwan
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Originally Posted by erneiz_hyde View Post
So you created the thread at last.

Well, honestly I don't have anything in mind right now. I enjoy reading AH (alternate history), but I can't create one. Though, maybe here's some thought:

What if Al-Andalus existed longer or Reconquista of Iberia plain failed or delayed a great deal? I've heard that Granada played a crucial part in the European world's discovery of new new worlds, so I'm thinking what this would lead to.
Basically you're looking for Al Andalus to participate in American colonization, yes ?

Islamic colonization will differ greatly then Christian european one due to many reasons, mainly in political culture, and also the prosetylization style. And it'd be quite effort-intensive to speculate, but I think it's safe to expect less racism and top-down religious enforcement from the muslims, the Andalusians at least. I think it will closest resemble Omani empire in east Africa during 19th century, without the lucrative slave trade since Native Amerindians will just drop like flies from Old World diseases. Instead, as Europeans did in RL, Africans will be imported to work in plantation economy, and muslim world had easier access to African slave market. I don't think something like a casta system like what the Spanish developed in their American colonies will emerge though, since not only that Islam has been more explicitly liberal in regards to the matters of race then Christian Europe, but also because that Islamic rulings regarding slavery are quite regulative and somewhat more humane, besides the fact that muslim world had much more experience of enslaving people from varieties of races. Expect european slaves in domestic sector.

As for the spread of Islam in the New world, I think it will follow the general pattern the history has seen elsewhere, which means pretty much disorganized matter. Islam lacks the hierarchical clergy that can organize and coordinate missionary activities, so the spread will be gradual through trade. However, you should expect more conversion by the sword from the converted native states, since they'd be much closer to polytheists and would be under more pressure to build a power base to coopt with the geopolitical changes Islam would be bringing...

As for how fast the muslim empire(s) in Americas will expand, I'm more inclined to think that it'll be slower then RL European empires, with less appetite for settler colonies, but I'm not entirely sure. It depends on how large the powerbase and resources they have at home. What's your Point of Divergence for surviving Al Andalus ? This Battle ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LeoXiao View Post
So China only had 3 years between the Revolution (and somehow avoiding the fracturing of the New Army; I'm guessing that Yuan Shikai doesn't play a big role ITTL) and taking back its land from Russia? Surprising how fast they (the Chinese) were able to band together get something done.
Ah, I forgot to anwer about the Qing part. The answer is no, Qing didn't survive Xinhai revolution. The point of divergence for China in this world is that, instead of Yuan Shihkai, it's Kang Youwei to whom Sun Yat Sen would cede presidency to. I've mentioned it in OP. Kang Youwei would be the first emperor of Qian dynasty, if somewhat reluctantly.

China needed more then a mere 3 years to reclaim their frontier territories. Actually, I'm not even sure if I should have this world's Great War beginning in 1914. But it will be in 1910s. Since unlike in RL, China will border with a nation part of enemy camp, and so will Japan, which makes me wonder whether my design for Manchuria for this time is valid...
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Last edited by Ridwan; 2012-03-11 at 04:51.
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Old 2012-03-11, 06:16   Link #17
erneiz_hyde
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aegir
snip
Hmm...seems like that battle was the decisive fatal blow. Though, if possible, could the PoD be something less "obvious"? By that link, I learned that Andalus grip on the area was already weakening. Why is that? Perhaps if we chain a few PoDs addressing a few of these along the way, we can bring a more stable Andalus to be able to withhold themselves and eventually partake in American colonization? Something like, doing something about the internal condition of Byzantine instead of having them win Manzikert.

Btw did we have Islamic colonization of America IOTL?
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Old 2012-03-11, 06:46   Link #18
Ridwan
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Originally Posted by erneiz_hyde View Post
Hmm...seems like that battle was the decisive fatal blow. Though, if possible, could the PoD be something less "obvious"? By that link, I learned that Andalus grip on the area was already weakening. Why is that? Perhaps if we chain a few PoDs addressing a few of these along the way, we can bring a more stable Andalus to be able to withhold themselves and eventually partake in American colonization? Something like, doing something about the internal condition of Byzantine instead of having them win Manzikert.

Btw did we have Islamic colonization of America IOTL?
I'm not sufficiently well versed in Islamic Spain history, but as far as I know, it had to do with the administrative construction laid down in previous centuries by the then-rulling Umayyad dynasty, which was complicated by the composition of the muslim ruling elite, with the ethnic divisions among them. It will then form the basis for the rise of taifas after the era of Almanzor. Some have argued that Al-Manzor was the one who triggered the break up of the already-loose and fragile structure of Al Andalus polity.

Umayyads' inactiveness in proselytizing Islam to their christian subjects also contributed to the fragileness of Umayyad political structure, as it prevented the muslim population from growing sufficiently large to be the base of a more cohesive polity. You can say that it was maybe why the suceeding regimes that came from North Africa embarked on forced conversion campaign. They were indeed fanatical to begin with, but there was likely to be political visionary consideration behind it.

So, we either need to make Umayyads less alergic to the idea of letting jizya tax-base to deplet through too much conversion to Islam, or less ethnic rivalry. Eliminating Asturias should also help.

And to answer your second question, no it didn't happen. At best, there were muslim slaves being brought to work in plantations in the Americas. Brazil had the largest number of them.
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Old 2012-03-11, 17:30   Link #19
erneiz_hyde
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Hmm...OK, that was interesting.

Let's move on to another: What if Harald of Norway won and succeeded in taking the England throne?
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Old 2012-03-13, 21:59   Link #20
Ridwan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by erneiz_hyde View Post
1) Hmm...OK, that was interesting.

2) Let's move on to another: What if Harald of Norway won and succeeded in taking the England throne?
1) After some rethinking, I don't think the rise of taifas was preventable. Lessening ethnic tensions will require different way of how the conquest of North Africa by the Caliphate would've played out and I think it's another topic to discuss. So is Umayyad's appetite for Jizya, which was one of the primary reasons why Al Andalus became typically known as enlightened beacon of tolerance of early medieval era and appealing to its fanboys like us I think the best option would be to eliminate Asturias, since it both acted as the remnants of "free christian spain" and an outpost of European Christendom which attracted volunteers after the doctrine of Crusades was born (to which Asturian contribution was important). With its absence, when taifas would inevitably emerge after some kind of a political crisis, there will be no christian entity with ideological pretensions to take the advantage to expand. The only thing left is for those taifas to later gradually reunify under the strongest of them after series of conquests.

Alternatively, you can have the muslims conquering southern France in order to extend the buffer.

2) Taking aside the doability of the scenario (I just mildly doubt it, because I don't know enough), if he managed to won English throne, I guess the country will possibly remain anglo-saxon and more oriented to Northern Europe, instead of to France. William of Normandy was a major turning point in England's history, without which english language won't have so much Latin influence in it. And instead, we'd call it "inglisc" or something similar sounding....

EDIT : I think you should check this thread.

================================================== =====

And now, it's my turn to ask, to Sumeragi. About the thing you told me some days ago regarding MacArthur being proxy of Japanophile lobby in US that allowed post-war Japan to rebound spectacularly as we know it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
There were two main lobbies in the US: The "conservative" (misinformed) Japanophiles, and the "liberal" New Dealers. The Japanophiles had a large web of connections through the Japanese Quackers (many of whom were the wives of important families), and thus mistakenly believed that Japan would become truly democratic even if the old system was maintained. At the same time, many of the Republicans wanted something resembling their vision of what a country should be like, and as a result MacArthur was both the ringleader of the exorcism and also the victim of manipulation by the Japanese ruling class into helping maintaining the same rigged system that started the march towards war. It wasn't until the death of the Showa Tenno that the solid hold of power by the elites was broken, with the political chaos of the early 1990's being the result.
That's the only one of your post regarding pro-Zaibatsu plot that aimed to retain the power of post-War Japan that I found on the "other place". It's still too dark to me about MacArthur's place in the whole scheme. What you're saying to me is basically he was "the link" (a rebellious one at that) between japanophille lobby in US and Japanese elite, instead of a replacable spare part of an established shielded mechanism that would force their agenda any either way, which is what I got from your post above(which calls for explanation about the standing of Japanophile lobby in US vis a vis differing interests). I'm aware about his overlt self-assuredness and all, including his self-confessed unmatched understanding of oriental thinking, and that seems to factor. I also know that, while he was in general suspicious towards powerful bussinessmen, he had a few associates himself among them. Was it them ? Would you mind to tell me about how the story went behind the creation of him as the Japanophile's proxy ? Or maybe you can reference me a title or two that covers up this particular question ?



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