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Old 2012-07-07, 20:41   Link #101
hinakatbklyn
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My support choices translated so far (No predictions until the main bracket)

Quote:
Group 1: Haruna (Zombie), Shinobu (Nisemonogatari), Miu (Papakiki), Eru (Hyouka), Shizu & Yuuki (Saki), Shimada Hazuki (Baka Test), Anya (Negima)
Group 2: Yune (Ikoku-Meiru no Croisee), Elsie (Kaminomi OVA), Matsumi Yuu (Saki), Fear (C3), Ika-chan (Ika-Musume), Muginami (Rinne)
Group 3: Izumi (Another), Kuroyukihime (Accel World), Aria (Hidan no Aria), Nagi (Hayate), Tooru (A-Channel), Charlotte (IS), Wendy Marvel (Fairy Tail), Kashii Airi (Ro Kyu Bu)
Group 4: Teru (Saki), Yukiko (P4)
Group 5: Toki (Saki) Kanade (Mayo Chiki), Miya (Amagami), Sana (Mashiro-Iro), Yoshika (Strike Witches), Karen (Nisemonogatari), Himeji (BakaTest), Maekawa Rea (Sankarea), Chitose (Yuruyuri)
Group 6: Taiga (Toradora OVA), Kyouko (Kore wa Zombie OTD)
Group 7: Eu (Kore wa Zombie OTD), Meme (Denpa Onna), Sora & Raika (Papakiki), Subaru (Mayo Chiki), Koromo (Saki), Minami (BakaTest), Ayumu (Hayate)
Group 8: Ako (Saki), Nori (Hidamari), Toshino Kyouko (Yuruyuri), Marika (Moretsu Pirates), Miu (Mashiro-Iro), Madoka Kyouno(Lagrange)
Group 9: Yui (Yuruyuri), Nyaruko (Nyaruko-san), Erio (Denpa Onna), Hinata (RKB), Kazumi (Shana), Yamada (Working), Louise (ZnT F), Hisa (Saki)
Group 10: Mihoko/Kuro (Saki), Minori (Toradora OVA), Minko (Hanasaku), Shirayuki (Hidan no Aria), Kuuko (Nyaruko)
Goup 11: Yui/Azu-nyan/Mugi (K-ON) Ryuuka (Saki), Asuha (Rotte no Omocha), Sanya (Strike Witches), Airi (Mashiro-iro), and Dalian (Dantalian no Shoka)
Group 12: Sena Kashiwazaki (Haganai), Sen (Ben-To), Medaka (Medaka's Box), Ryuushi (Denpa Onna), Morishima (Amagami), Alice (Kamimemo), Zessica
Group 13: Tsubasa/Nadeko (Nisemonogatari), Momo (Saki), Tsumiki (Acchi Kocchi), Kurisu (Steins;Gate)
Group 14: Rotte (Rotte no Omocha), Mio (K-On), Ohana (Hanasaku), Hinagiku Katsura (Hayate)
Group 15: Shirakiin (Inu x Boku SS) Kobato (Haganai) Shoko (BakaTest)
Group 16: Hina (Papakiki), Tomoka (RKB), Mayoi (Nisemonogatari), Mayuri (Steins;Gate), Chiaki (Moretsu Pirates), Karuta (Inu x Boku SS). Akarin (Yuruyuri)
8 - (Seen Rinne no Lagrange so I can vouch for Madoka)
Unless she didn't make it, I also put in support for Yuuko (A Channel). Finally got to A Channel a year after the prior tournament. Better late than never.
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Last edited by hinakatbklyn; 2012-07-08 at 12:35. Reason: Added to support after translations
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Old 2012-07-07, 21:55   Link #102
ion475
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Quote:
5 bucks that 80% of ion's predictions will be correct.
Let see...

80% x 16 groups = 12.8 -> Round up to 13. Doubt I'll be THAT accurate (I've zero knowledge of 2ch anime demographics or even Japanese demographics in general. Adding in LOTS of personal bias...)
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Old 2012-07-07, 23:56   Link #103
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Full translation for the Preliminaries 1 Groups. There is 2 sheets, one ordered by group, and another ordered by series.
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Old 2012-07-08, 07:38   Link #104
ion475
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Quote:
Full translation for the Preliminaries 1 Groups. There is 2 sheets, one ordered by group, and another ordered by series.
Definitely help me running through just to realized how many girls I still miss after running through the original list 3-4 times...

EDIT: On a side note, seems like I can get a code this year. Haven't figure out a way to post on 2ch yet, though...

EDIT: Nevermind...I'm suppose to just wait for a little bit and yay. Looks like I can vote this year!!!
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Last edited by ion475; 2012-07-08 at 19:28.
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Old 2012-07-10, 04:08   Link #105
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Preliminary 1 is an interesting one. Idolm@ster vs Saki vs Nisemonogatari vs Working with significant characters from each, with Chitanda Eru, Misaki Mei, Miu, and Rias. This will tell us a lot about who's mobilized and how voters are biased.

I'm picking Haruka and Ami over Chitanda, with most of the other important ones close together, and Saber getting thrashed. Saki will probably keep a low profile. If the idols do get beaten, it'll be a pretty bad sign for Idolmaster later on.

Preliminary 2 should be shrimp for Ika Musume.
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Old 2012-07-10, 18:32   Link #106
ion475
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Quote:
I'm picking Haruka and Ami over Chitanda, with most of the other important ones close together, and Saber getting thrashed. Saki will probably keep a low profile. If the idols do get beaten, it'll be a pretty bad sign for Idolmaster later on.
Umm...

1. Don't ever underestimate Kyoani fans
2. Haruka & Ami winning? They're not even going to beat Hitagi (Hack, I don't even see them getting past Shinobu, knowing that this is multi-vote and if one vote for Hitagi, one is very likely to also vote for Shinobu)
3. Don't underestimate Saki fans either. Especially when it's Tacos, who's always one of Saki's top guns.
4. And you're REALLY overrating Idolm@ster...
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Old 2012-07-10, 18:52   Link #107
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I can't read Japanese so please correct me if I get any of this wrong:

Source: http://ast2012.saimoe.me/rule/toutrule.php

1st Preliminaries
-16 groups
-Vote for up to 10 characters
-Top 12 advance to the tournament (192 total)
-13th-42nd advance to 2nd preliminaries (480 total)

2nd Preliminaries
-6 groups
-Vote for up to 12 characters
-Top 16 advance to the tournament (96 total)

288 characters total in the main tournament.

This is pretty similar to last year. The only difference is 480 characters instead of 384 advance to second preliminaries.
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Old 2012-07-10, 19:10   Link #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ion475 View Post
Umm...

1. Don't ever underestimate Kyoani fans
2. Haruka & Ami winning? They're not even going to beat Hitagi (Hack, I don't even see them getting past Shinobu, knowing that this is multi-vote and if one vote for Hitagi, one is very likely to also vote for Shinobu)
3. Don't underestimate Saki fans either. Especially when it's Tacos, who's always one of Saki's top guns.
4. And you're REALLY overrating Idolm@ster...
I agree with you on points 2 through 4. I'm not so sure on you first point, though. Didn't the K-On! girls get wiped out pretty badly last year? And the Nichijou girls didn't do that hot either, IIRC.
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Old 2012-07-10, 19:11   Link #109
ion475
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TRE: You're completely correct. Only other things are:

1. Any tie means everyone advanced (Didn't change)
2. Still have to type some sort of comment for each vote. Only one comment is necessary per vote, though (i.e. no need to write comment for each individual girls in, let say, prelim). I don't think this change from last year either.

EDIT:
Quote:
I agree with you on points 2 through 4. I'm not so sure on you first point, though. Didn't the K-On! girls get wiped out pretty badly last year? And the Nichijou girls didn't do that hot either, IIRC.
Mostly referring to Chitanda, who's popular mostly b/c Hyouka is by Kyoani (B/c the series is REALLY average...). But then, I'm basing it mostly on Animeone's poll, and Animeone is full of Kyoani and HanaKana fans, while 2ch = Too many trolls for anything to be predictable...

The ongoing poll for Group 1 prediction on Animeone:
http://anime.biglobe.ne.jp/userranking/chara/35636/

(I usually ignored Tiger & Bunny votes on there if you wonder about the 2nd place...Eru right now is 1st, Hitagi 3rd, the IMs way down...)

And all the K-On girls lose to girls that are not bad at all themselves. Of course, if Kyoani is really THAT strong, K-On would win everything, but, look at who the girls lose to...
Mugi - to Kanade (Group Finalist, lose to the ultimate troll in Erica Hartmann)
Mio - to Ika-Musume (Top 8)
Yui - to Minami (2nd Round, lose to Charlotte who defeated Erio)
Azusa - to Haqua (Group Finalist, lose to Sayaka)
Ritsu - to Sakura Kyoko (Finalist)

So essentially, outside of Yui, all of them lose to someone that at least went to Group Final...

Not to mention, last year is just a mess, consider the spam vote problems that didn't get fixed until Group Final...
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Last edited by ion475; 2012-07-10 at 19:32.
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Old 2012-07-10, 19:30   Link #110
KholdStare
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Don't forget guys that you can join #saimoe @ irc.rizon.net to discuss...well, saimoe. (Just making sure people read the first post.)

In any case I don't believe Chitanda will do extremely well... Her series is below average for me, although she has her own charm and I like her as a character.
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Old 2012-07-10, 19:39   Link #111
ion475
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Quote:
In any case I don't believe Chitanda will do extremely well... Her series is below average for me, although she has her own charm and I like her as a character.
Well, I don't see her going into Top 8 either (Mainly b/c, as much as Hyouka is from Kyoani, an average series is that, average...). And I won't be surprised if Hitagi comes out on top in this group.
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Old 2012-07-10, 20:11   Link #112
Ithekro
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Only if her eyes don't charm the voters.
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Old 2012-07-10, 21:07   Link #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
Only if her eyes don't charm the voters.
Will the Saimoe voters be that stupid? Sure hope not.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ion475 View Post
Well, I don't see her going into Top 8 either (Mainly b/c, as much as Hyouka is from Kyoani, an average series is that, average...). And I won't be surprised if Hitagi comes out on top in this group.
Having not watched Hyouka yet... and from what I am gathering about her. No, she's not Top 8 material. Too many others who would be.
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Old 2012-07-11, 00:55   Link #114
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I don't think Chitanda is a top 8 material. She may win in this group but that's about it.
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Old 2012-07-11, 06:52   Link #115
anisu
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Quote:
2. Haruka & Ami winning? They're not even going to beat Hitagi (Hack, I don't even see them getting past Shinobu, knowing that this is multi-vote and if one vote for Hitagi, one is very likely to also vote for Shinobu)
4. And you're REALLY overrating Idolm@ster...
It'll be disappointing if Idolm@ster fans don't care about Saimoe at all. The anime was well done, Haruka got a lot of focus, and it wouldn't take that many people with the low vote counts at this stage. I'll look for a cardboard cutout of Haruka if they can't even beat Shinobu.
Quote:
3. Don't underestimate Saki fans either. Especially when it's Tacos, who's always one of Saki's top guns.
The problem is Tacos had a minor role and Saki will put a huge target on their backs if they dominate the preliminaries. If I manage to get a code, which is looking pretty コード発行制限中。。。しばらく待って。 this year, I'll avoid voting for lower screentime characters like her to try to make things look more competitive. Imagine what a mess the first main tournament round would be if we win half the preliminary groups and get 40 characters in.
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Old 2012-07-11, 07:45   Link #116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chaosprophet View Post
Full translation for the Preliminaries 1 Groups. There is 2 sheets, one ordered by group, and another ordered by series.
Looking at this, I must say. I'm a little bit surprised at the selection. I'm glad to see
some familiar faces in that list.

On a side note, it looks like nearly all the girls from Another got in. Including Sakibara's grandmother.
And all the girls from Higurashi Kira. Although I highly doubt that they both won't win this.
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Old 2012-07-11, 09:32   Link #117
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Hitagi, Eru and the Im@s girls will probably be the ones duking it out for first tomorrow for Prelim 1 Grp. 1.
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Old 2012-07-11, 12:49   Link #118
timbits
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Looks like voting for prelim one has started, now it's just a matter of if I can get a code...
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Old 2012-07-11, 13:58   Link #119
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game8910 has arrived in saimoe 2012, did Shana win yet?
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Old 2012-07-11, 14:21   Link #120
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I'll pray again for PMMM's success for the second year (again)

.... on second thought.... I'll pray for Nanoha's success too.
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