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Old 2012-07-13, 13:14   Link #2261
Sphire
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As much as I like the first exhibition match - it is all kinds of awesome - such a big match-up I feel could be detrimental to the individual matches. Or specifically to the non-exhibition girls in the individual matches.

Such an exhibition could ignite a rallying call, a shame given Yuki, Mikoto and Eu all looked to put up a decent fight respectively. But now that their opponents have an extra impetus? I say it looks much harder now.

Still, that is speculation. Can only wait and see now. Plus, I'm semi-backing Saber for Ruby anyway :P
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Old 2012-07-13, 14:02   Link #2262
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Next time we should not put them in day 7, yes.
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Old 2012-07-13, 18:16   Link #2263
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As much as I like Kuroneko, I have to vote Shana and Taiga over Kanade , and I am happy about being able to vote for Sheena too .
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Old 2012-07-13, 23:29   Link #2264
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Homura has finally woken up about sleeping for the past 19 rounds. Being strong enough to nearly beat Mato means you can coast into the post season... if you bothered to try from the start. While looking nice is great and all, Homura desparately needed both wins against Mato and Erio. As good as Homura looks now, a post season finish will still need another miracle. Maybe if Homura can beat Kuroneko in the upcoming match, she might have a chance.

Haruhi had another disastrous match against Shana. I guess losing to Saber was more due to Haruhi taking a massive dive rather than Saber boosting significantly. Despite Haruhi's fall, Yuki still looks fine. Usually those two stick together fairly closely in terms of strength. I'm hooing Yuki doesn't decide to follow Haruhi and instead Haruhi rebounds. There's a big gap in strength between the Top 8 and the rest of the field in Stella so Haruhi still looks pretty good but it's a sizable step down from where she usually is.

Taiga's near doubling on Hitagi is pretty scary stuff. Mikoto only managed 58% back in late Aquamarine. Hitagi is a fair bit weaker now but a 8 percentage point is quite the gap to make up.

The Kodaka/Kobato vs Lelouch/Nunnally gives us an interesting look at how male characters compare against female characters in ISML. Nunnally should be a near non-factor in terms of strength but Kodaka probably isn't. From this, it looks like Lelouch is stronger than C.C. but not by too much. If you want to max the Male Exhibition results in Kyon isn't too much stronger than Mikuru and Hideyoshi is the strongest BakaTest character. We'll probably never get any good 1 on 1 Male vs Female matches, but I still think this stuff is neat.
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Old 2012-07-13, 23:45   Link #2265
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Team Rocket Elite View Post
Homura has finally woken up about sleeping for the past 19 rounds. Being strong enough to nearly beat Mato means you can coast into the post season... if you bothered to try from the start. While looking nice is great and all, Homura desparately needed both wins against Mato and Erio. As good as Homura looks now, a post season finish will still need another miracle. Maybe if Homura can beat Kuroneko in the upcoming match, she might have a chance.
Homura's current record is a disastrous 4-16. Any girl who makes post-season is at least going to need a winning record. Homura needs 12 straight victories just to get to .500

I like Homura, but there comes a point when you just have to accept that she doesn't have it. Maybe the first two Madoka movies will boost her for ISML 2013, but ISML 2012 is not Homura's year.

I'll continue voting for her in most matches, but I have no hopes for Homura any more. Not for this year.
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Old 2012-07-14, 00:16   Link #2266
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We'll probably never get any good 1 on 1 Male vs Female matches, but I still think this stuff is neat.
They can always do Hideyoshi v. Yuuko.

Wait, Hideyoshi is a Hideyoshi, so it's not Male v. Female after all...

As far as result...
1. Homura gets close again, but still lose. She's finally waking up a little bit, but it's WAY too late, not after she already suffer loss against, let say, Shiori or Ayase last round.
2. Kuroneko is losing strength badly. Last year she handily defeated Yui-nyan. This year it's only by 400...
3. Iwasawa win, which means she has more win this year already (8) compare to last (7), and that's with 15 more rounds to go.
4. So, Niku lose to Kirion then handily beat Charlotte...maybe Charlotte's record is a fluke? (Already 2 loss during Ruby)
5. Louise gain a LOT of strength, the latest win by defeating Tomoyo
6. Speaking of Kugyu, Taiga is still as strong as ever. Will she be able to get past Yuki, whose only loss is against Shana.

As for matchup next round...
1. No Moegeddon this year, at least in Nova, as Eu and Kanade faced off, and Kanade surely will show the gap in class is still huge
2. Kobato v. Charlotte, the other popular HanaKana duo.
3. Of course, the exhibition, already know which side I'll choose (and it's not even a hard choice...)
4. The other side feature Azu-nyan v. Mio. If this is AST, it'll be a blowout win by Azu-nyan, but since this is not...
5. Shana v. Biribiri, always an intriguing matchup. Will Biribiri knock Shana off, in Ruby?

As far as necklace goes - Nova is a mess since you'll probably have one eligible 7-0 (Kobato), then a bunch of 6-1.
Stella is basically Shana/Biribiri winner, Azu-nyan/Mio winner, Taiga/Yuki winner. Wildcard depends on Nova, though, so no clue for now (I didn't run any excel spreadsheet this year...)
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Old 2012-07-14, 00:33   Link #2267
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ion475 View Post
1. Homura gets close again, but still lose. She's finally waking up a little bit, but it's WAY too late, not after she already suffer loss against, let say, Shiori or Ayase last round.
It's called strategic voting. Shana/Taiga fans going for Ruby. Weakened Nova period vs. 3 strong positioned Stella chars but Mio will get the tiara's wrath and leave Shana/Taiga in a strong position? Alarm bells are ringing. RieKu fans want that Ruby and people are letting them.

Quote:
2. Kuroneko is losing strength badly. Last year she handily defeated Yui-nyan. This year it's only by 400...
3rd vs 5th in the overall standings should be close and was...

Quote:
3. Iwasawa win, which means she has more win this year already (8) compare to last (7), and that's with 15 more rounds to go.
She was trounced by Stella characters, so why so surprised that she's beating Nova characters?

Quote:
4. So, Niku lose to Kirion then handily beat Charlotte...maybe Charlotte's record is a fluke? (Already 2 loss during Ruby)
She was a lower Tier 2 last year and is again?

Quote:
5. Louise gain a LOT of strength, the latest win by defeating Tomoyo
Recently aired shows will do that.

Quote:
6. Speaking of Kugyu, Taiga is still as strong as ever. Will she be able to get past Yuki, whose only loss is against Shana.
Will not surprise me if strategic voters engineer her getting past Shana in the postseason.


So Nova and Stellas don't cross paths until postseason Phase 2? Hmm....


Frankly, it won't surprise me if Shana and Taiga fans gang up on Kanade to make Eucliwood win and put her as Nova's #1 seed. It's their only chance to put the only legitimate threat at present to Shana and Taiga into a position to slide into a spot to be sniped in the postseason. And based on what happened last year in the postseason - I think they will do it.
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Old 2012-07-14, 00:42   Link #2268
wontaek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Team Rocket Elite View Post
Homura has finally woken up about sleeping for the past 19 rounds. Being strong enough to nearly beat Mato means you can coast into the post season... if you bothered to try from the start. While looking nice is great and all, Homura desparately needed both wins against Mato and Erio. As good as Homura looks now, a post season finish will still need another miracle. Maybe if Homura can beat Kuroneko in the upcoming match, she might have a chance.
I don't think Homura woke up at all. A loss is a loss. There just happened to be enough people who didn't like Hanakana faction or Kuroi Mato to make things interesting, but if you check her entire Ruby record, Homura merely kept on getting the number of votes she almost always gets, and her haters again put in comparable amount of hate vote against her.
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Old 2012-07-14, 00:46   Link #2269
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wontaek View Post
I don't think Homura woke up at all. A loss is a loss. There just happened to be enough people who didn't like Hanakana faction or Kuroi Mato to make things interesting, but if you check her entire Ruby record, Homura merely kept on getting the number of votes she almost always gets, and her haters again put in comparable amount of hate vote against her.
I personally think it's Shana/Taiga fans weakening the SDO of any possible char from Nova that will be in the Ruby necklace.
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Old 2012-07-14, 02:15   Link #2270
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I personally think it's Shana/Taiga fans weakening the SDO of any possible char from Nova that will be in the Ruby necklace.
That is a very good possibility.
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Old 2012-07-14, 02:58   Link #2271
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And once again, most of my characters lost. T^T
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Old 2012-07-14, 03:20   Link #2272
Sphire
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Originally Posted by ion475 View Post
3. Iwasawa win, which means she has more win this year already (8) compare to last (7), and that's with 15 more rounds to go.
Meh, AB voting is strong. I'm surprised not much was made of Kanade absolutely romping on Yuri in round 5. I know we all expected Kanade to win, but damn she made Yuri look tier 6 or something. To me that says that the majority vote for AB simply because it's AB. Iwasawa probably being the baseline for that group. Her matches pull in a lot of voters too.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Last Sinner View Post
It's called strategic voting. Shana/Taiga fans going for Ruby. Weakened Nova period vs. 3 strong positioned Stella chars but Mio will get the tiara's wrath and leave Shana/Taiga in a strong position? Alarm bells are ringing. RieKu fans want that Ruby and people are letting them.



So Nova and Stellas don't cross paths until postseason Phase 2? Hmm....


Frankly, it won't surprise me if Shana and Taiga fans gang up on Kanade to make Eucliwood win and put her as Nova's #1 seed. It's their only chance to put the only legitimate threat at present to Shana and Taiga into a position to slide into a spot to be sniped in the postseason. And based on what happened last year in the postseason - I think they will do it.
As much as there probably is strategic voting (luxuries of the majority), handing Mato a defeat seems pointless. if not her, someone else would just replace her in the necklace match without making much of a difference. Mato will likely flounder in the necklace match anyway. I assume the wildcard entry is coming from Stella.

So KugiRie's biggest threat would be Mio. Unless Azusa somehow manages to make the wildcard and cause a split (K-on fans aren't any better than the KugiRie ones are at backing a single choice).

Which also means supporting Kanade to beat Eu. No sense in having a strong contender in Eu in necklace running. A 7-0 Eu would likely be more dangerous than Mio. To anti-vote Kanade for post-season purposes? That seems a bit too out there, or at least, just bad timing.

At least, that's how I see things turning out. Although Eu getting Ruby would be sweet making a Nova 3-peat for the first three necklaces too.
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Old 2012-07-14, 04:19   Link #2273
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Originally Posted by Triple_R View Post
Homura's current record is a disastrous 4-16. Any girl who makes post-season is at least going to need a winning record. Homura needs 12 straight victories just to get to .500

I like Homura, but there comes a point when you just have to accept that she doesn't have it. Maybe the first two Madoka movies will boost her for ISML 2013, but ISML 2012 is not Homura's year.

I'll continue voting for her in most matches, but I have no hopes for Homura any more. Not for this year.
Which is why I said a miracle would be needed! But what Homura really needed was to have beaten Konoe Subaru and Suzutsuki Kanade earlier in the period, got her boost a match early to take out Tōwa Erio and try a bit harder beat Kuroi Mato as well. From there, worm your way past Victorique and Aria and a Top 16 position would have been in reach. However, none of that happened. Close but never quite enough. Boosting from the movies for 2013 would be nice but I think Homura would do just fine if she can keep the level of strength she showed in nearly beating Mato.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wontaek View Post
I don't think Homura woke up at all. A loss is a loss. There just happened to be enough people who didn't like Hanakana faction or Kuroi Mato to make things interesting, but if you check her entire Ruby record, Homura merely kept on getting the number of votes she almost always gets, and her haters again put in comparable amount of hate vote against her.
Not all losses are equal. A 45% on Kanade is worth way more than 49% on Gasai Yuno. Keeping the same number of votes against stronger opponents means you are getting stronger. Once again, getting 3000 votes against Yuno is way different than getting 3000 on Tenshi. Convincing 3517 people to vote for you over Mato is much difficult then getting 3493 to vote for you over Suzutsuki Kanade. Tachibana Kanade got 69% on Victorique which is roughly inline with my stats. If there is a anti-Hanakana faction they didn't show up today.
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Old 2012-07-14, 05:08   Link #2274
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Team Rocket Elite View Post
If there is a anti-Hanakana faction they didn't show up today.
They will be showing up next round.
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Old 2012-07-14, 12:16   Link #2275
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If Shana isn't worried about the Ruby necklace since she already has one, and wants the Topaz necklace just for collection purposes, she would just go ahead and use Euu to snipe Kanade. Otherwise Kanade's win will give Shana a good chance at winning Ruby (should Shana beat Mikoto that is).

The one Hanazawa who has a chance at reaching the necklace round (Kobato), another Hanazawa (Charlotte) could be used to give Kobato her first loss this period and out of the necklace round. Or..... seeing that Sena has a decent SDO and is facing a 6-0 opponent (Inori), Have both reach the necklace round which would almost guarantee a split.
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Old 2012-07-14, 12:49   Link #2276
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If Shana wants to give up on Ruby to try for Topaz, Shana can just throw the match against Mikoto. It's much easier to do that then to try and take out Kanade.
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Old 2012-07-14, 13:33   Link #2277
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I think the most intriguing match-up for the necklace round is Shana v. Mikoto, as this match could go either way if Shana wants revenge for what happened Post Season, for what better way to get revenge than to do it in one's period? Mikoto is going to have a tough time defeating Shana given how many people love to see her in Ruby, even if Mikoto had one in 2010 as well.

Azusa v. Mio, however, looks to be a Mio win. This does not seem to be a case of Konata and Kagami, where they are so close in power at this point that Kotana can best Kagami and is stronger than her at this time. ISML seems to prefer Mio over Asuza when the two are matched together, but maybe this year, I will be proven wrong. In any case, Mio seems like the winner in this intra-series match.
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Old 2012-07-14, 16:06   Link #2278
ion475
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Meh, AB voting is strong. I'm surprised not much was made of Kanade absolutely romping on Yuri in round 5. I know we all expected Kanade to win, but damn she made Yuri look tier 6 or something. To me that says that the majority vote for AB simply because it's AB. Iwasawa probably being the baseline for that group. Her matches pull in a lot of voters too.
As far as why no one comment on Kanade tromping Yuri...
Last year (Aquamarine 6) - Kanade 6322-2323 Yuri (73.13%)
This year (Ruby 6) - Kanade 5077-1945 Yuri (72.59%)

Basically Kanade is getting the same amount of votes this year compare to last. Hack, if anything, Kanade actually did worse (Although, yeah, 0.5% is really not much...)

And of course I know it's the AB votes. I mean, is there any other reason why Iwasawa is actually still here anyway? Lots of better girls yet as usual, ISML voters just vote in craps in prelim year after year.

Quote:
3rd vs 5th in the overall standings should be close and was...
Last year (Sapphire 5): Kuroneko 3808-2716 Yui (58.37%)
This year (Ruby 6): Kuroneko 4009-3623 (52.53%)

That's a pretty big drop for Kuroneko...
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Old 2012-07-14, 20:23   Link #2279
Rajura
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Is it time for me just to give up? I wonder... somebody tell not to give up... no matter how horribly this keeps going for my interests.

Don't worry... I will not turn into an anti-vote machine and spread misery.

But, I will keep voting with my heart!
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Old 2012-07-15, 07:44   Link #2280
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Is it time for me just to give up? I wonder... somebody tell not to give up... no matter how horribly this keeps going for my interests.

Don't worry... I will not turn into an anti-vote machine and spread misery.

But, I will keep voting with my heart!
Yes, yes you shall.
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