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Old 2012-08-04, 12:39   Link #481
hinakatbklyn
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Join Date: Nov 2009
Group B: So much for the Akari/Toki finals match. Best case scenario is group finals (assuming no sniping). And Azusa is also in the group

Group E:
Hirasawa Yui, Taiga, Yuu, Arata, Charlotte Dunois, Erio, Rin Tosaka

Yui Hirasawa has two chances at a 2009 rematch (Hinagiku 3rd round) and Taiga (finals)
Charlotte & Erio could have a rematch

Going on votes alone in the prelims: Top 5 = Hinagiku > Yui > Yuu > Taiga > Arata (I think)
Series Rep/Potential other important stats: My Top 5 Guess = Yuu > Yui > Hinagiku > Taiga > Arata

Group F:
Kuro, Kirame (Subara) Ryuuka (Toki's Teammate/Partner) Almost got the semifinal match back together in the same bracket (not including Toki and Teru)

Group G:
Ako or Nodoka are my guesses at who has the best chance in this bracket based on the preliminaries
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Old 2012-08-04, 12:58   Link #482
ion475
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Well...some of the more interesting first round:
A-11: Koromo v. two Strike Witches, split guarantee...
A-12: Mokkan v. Miki. Possible RKB split also.
B-6: Not really interesting or say, but poor Tsumiki drawing Toki the first round...
B-7: Hidamari Assassination #1?
C-1: Shizuno v. Toshino Kyouko. Possible Yuruyuri split, but I doubt it
C-4/C-5: Not "strong" group, but Tamayura is really getting shafted...even if Maon won against Maria, she still has to face Norie/Potte, if Kanon don't win C-5. 3 girls, only 1 left after 2nd round at best...
C-8: Mildly strong group
E-2: Erio v. Yumi, with Hiro in their possibly trolling as well. 2nd year in a row that Erio gets shaft?
E-10: The one and only all-Achiga-hen group, and Yuu has to face Arata...
E-12: Yui will have to fight to get out of 1st round again...
F-5: Karen v. Kanna.
F-8: Group of death starts here...Nyaruko v. Nadeko. Poor Morita-san. Whoever get out of this, well, probably get to face Kuro (F-7) and Ryuuka (F-9)
F-11: Shirakiin should win, but Tooru and Yoshika are not weak at all.
G-1/G-2 2nd Round: G-1 is mildly interesting between Momo and Mayoi. Momo and Nodoka will fight in 2nd round instead of QF this year, though, if they both advanced. Hack, Nanasaki Ai is in G-3 also to throw things into more chaos.
G-9: Tsukihi v. Rea.
H-3: Another group of death. Mayaka probably won't compete much, but Miu v. Poplar...
H-4: Yep, Shana will be out the 1st round again.
H-7: Mio 1st round out again? Her opponents are not super strong (Toki-esque), but assassination can easily happen.
H-10: Another group of death. Elsie and Eu are not as strong as they could be, but throw them together with Ikeda makes things REALLY interesting...
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Old 2012-08-04, 13:05   Link #483
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I'm just gonna LOL with 41 Saki characters. On that note, when Saki season 2 ever comes out -- the number will be even greater that year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ichuki View Post
For main draw I'm not surprised to see at least 1 block that's Saki vs Saki vs Saki
Well, it's inevitable. But man. A big cluster of 3 with Saki, Tacos, and Koromo.
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Old 2012-08-04, 14:56   Link #484
ion475
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Quote:
Well, it's inevitable. But man. A big cluster of 3 with Saki, Tacos, and Koromo.
Earliest they will face each other is 3rd round anyway, which is as ideal as it can get...

I mean, compare that to Nodoka & Momo (2nd Round), Arata & Yuu (1st round), and Kuro & Ryuuka (2nd round along with Nyaruko or Nadeko)...

At least there's no Homuhomu v. Biribiri this year.
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Old 2012-08-04, 16:25   Link #485
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I'd probably go with the following as Block winners:

A: Amae Koromo
B: Onjouji Toki
C: Toshinou Kyouko
D: Fukuji Mihoko
E: Matsumi Yuu
F: Matsumi Kuro
G: Haramura Nodoka
H: Kashiwazaki Sena

I wonder how much Block voting will affect things. Will Fukuyo Kouko benefit for sharing a match day with Nodoka and Ako? Probably not enough to beat Hitagi. Tsumugi and Ryuuka have a rematch in Block F. Based on preliminary performance alone, Tsumugi can win that match. However, she's not going to have Azusa and Yui with her this time. Ryuuka should still be the favourite but she might not be as safe as some people might think.

14.88% of characters are from Saki
37.50% of R1 matches have a Saki character
78.13% of R1 days have a match with a Saki character
1 Round 2 match is already a lock to include a Saki character
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Old 2012-08-04, 16:40   Link #486
timbits
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Prepare for wall of analysis coming your way.

Group A: Koromo, Saki and Tacos in one group, oh boy. Two aces and a pretty strong contender for saki already landing in the same group, undoubtedly forcing teamkills. On that subject, ro kyu bu split votes just might give miki a fighting chance, although it's still quite a long shot. Potential snipers include Tomoka for Koromo, Maho for Saki, and Cecilia for Tacos.
Predicted Group Winner: Tacos

Group B: The trolldraw stikes again. A very likely round two match will be Azusa vs Ritsu vs Akari~n, leading to much much sadness for K-ON fans with split voting unless they all organize to throw Ritsu under the bus. Toki, meanwhile, will breeze through on her side of the bracket with no one even strong enough to attempt a snipe.
Predicted Group Winner: Toki

Group C: Right off the bat we have the "main character" taking on TOSHINO KYOUKO. Ironically a Saki character may be used as a sniper here instead of the other way around. If that doesn't work there's always Kuuko, and after that whoever wins might be used to take out Hisa. For the first time in ever Maria gets a round one draw where she has a chance of winning.
Predicted Group Winner: TOSHINO KYOUKO

Group D: Nagi will have to dodge a minefield of snipers (sniperfield?) including Teru, Yasuna, Louise, and Touka while Kyaputen faces no opposition on her side of the bracket.
Predicted Group Winner: Nagi

Group E: Ahaha trolldraws you have done me proud. saki vs saki vs saki, and not just anybody from saki, but teammates Arata and Yuu, making this a double teamkill. Oh saki. I don't want to jinx this but it doesn't look like anyone can touch Hina until group finals. I mean, who's going to snipe her, Yachiyo? HAHAHAHA (watch as this comes true). As long as she survives round 2 the new season should start airing around then and she'll get a major boost in the block finals. I have to mention also that Hamster landed in a very bad spot, my only hope is that she may be used to snipe Yui. The match is scheduled for September 4th so by that time hopefully the new season will have gotten enough hype for her to be a sniping threat...please? ;_;
Predicted Group Winner: IT'S HINA'S YEAR

Group F: Unless some shenanigans happen early on, it'll be Kuro vs Nyaruko vs Ryuuka, I think we can all see how that one turns out. This is still a really tough group though, as Nyaruko will still have to face Eru and either Karen or Subara if she wins the match mentioned above. Yui is a possible sniper against either Karen or Subara since her series is still airing.
Predicted Group Winner: Nyaruko

Group G: I can see it now, Stealth Momo vs Nodotits in round two, again two Saki aces will be forced to teamkill. On the other side of the bracket, the draw shows no mercy as Ako will have to dodge Ika, Tsukihi, and YAMADA YAMADA just for a chance to crush the hopes of another teammate.
Predicted Group Winner: Ako

Group H: Shana vs Mio, it's that simple. Unless of course they get sniped. Snipers for this group include one of Kana, Elsie, or Euu, in addition to kuroyukihime.
Predicted Group Winner: Mio

TL;DR saki vs saki vs saki round one
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Old 2012-08-04, 17:25   Link #487
ion475
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Join Date: Aug 2009
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My block prediction:

Block A: Kobato v. Tomoka (Winner: Tomoka). If Kobato lose to Saki, Tomoka has the potential of being triple assassin (Koromo in Round 2, Tacos in Round 3, Saki in Block Final)
Block B: Toki v. Akari~n (Winner: Toki). Toki is just too strong in my opinion...
Block C: Toshino Kyouko v. Astarotte Ygvar (Winner: Kyouko). I have Rotte getting out of the jam in Round 2 (Possible split with Asuha if she win her group) and Kyouko winning against Buchou.
Block D: Mihoko v. Nagi (Winner: Nagi). Just b/c Nagi needs to lose in the final again. Too bad Louise doesn't get to troll too much this year with her facing Nagi in Round 3 even if she won against Karuta in Round 2.
Block E: Hinagiku v. Taiga (Winner: Taiga). I'm being really optimistic here, with Taiga facing Yuu & Gitah in Round 2...
Block F: SubaraKirame v. (」・ω・)」うー!(/・ω・)/にゃー!Nyaruko (Winner: Kirame). Another Saki group winner here. Predicting Nyaruko win against Kuro & Ryuuka due to the split.
Block G: Momo v. Yamada (Winner: Yamada). My favorite troll will troll again this year.
Block H: Kuroyukihime v. Niku (Winner: Niku). Any of my top 4 (Poplar, Kuroyukihime, Mio, Niku) can win the group in my opinion. And yes, Shana will lose to Izumi in Round 1.

Would really love a Top 8 match between Akari~n and Momo. Toki is in the way, though...

Quote:
Predicted Group Winner: IT'S HINA'S YEAR
She does have a realistic chance this year, unlike...well, Shana.
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Last edited by ion475; 2012-08-04 at 17:38.
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Old 2012-08-04, 18:02   Link #488
Ichuki
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Block Prediction

Group A: Koromo vs Saki (Winner: Koromo) I feel like those 2 are too strong to snipe out.

Group B: Toki vs Akari (Winner: Akari) I believe Toki is weaker than Akarin.

Group C: Kyouko vs Kise Yayoi (Winner: Kyouko) Even though there is a higher chance of Kyouko winning, I wouldn't underestimate the Precure.

Group D: Mihoko vs Nagi (Winner: Nagi) Feel like Nagi will lose in the Final 8 again

Group E: Hinagiku vs Yuu (Winner: Hinagiku) Hinagiku seems like the only one who could snipe out Yuu.

Group F: Subara vs Nyaruko (Winner: Nyaruko) I don't think Subara has enough power to defeat Nyaruko

Group G: Nodoka vs Ako (Winner: Nodoka) I feel like Saimoe is willing to put Nodoppai in the finals again.

Group H: Shana vs Niku (Winner: Niku) I have a bad feeling Shana is going to get trolled again.
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Old 2012-08-04, 18:32   Link #489
ion475
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Quote:
Group B: Toki vs Akari (Winner: Akari) I believe Toki is weaker than Akarin.
Percentage of 1st Round vote suggested otherwise...

【2012】1次予選の被投票率ランク
01位 55.97% 05組 1位 333票 園城寺怜@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A
02位 51.79% 08組 1位 347票 新子憧@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A
03位 51.18% 16組 1位 369票 赤座あかり@ゆるゆり
04位 50.93% 10組 1位 328票 松実玄@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A
05位 50.90% 08組 2位 341票 歳納京子@ゆるゆり
06位 49.39% 02組 1位 244票 松実宥@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A
07位 48.70% 12組 1位 337票 原村和@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A
08位 47.05% 07組 1位 263票 天江衣@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A
09位 46.20% 13組 1位 292票 花田煌@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A
10位 44.79% 11組 1位 327票 中野梓@映画 けいおん!
10位 44.79% 11組 1位 327票 清水谷竜華@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A
12位 44.66% 11組 3位 326票 琴吹紬@映画 けいおん!
13位 44.60% 04組 1位 223票 種島ぽぷら@WORKING'!!
14位 44.46% 13組 2位 281票 東横桃子@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A
15位 44.26% 15組 1位 274票 白鬼院凜々蝶@妖狐僕SS
16位 43.64% 12組 2位 302票 柏崎星奈@僕は友達が少ない
17位 43.63% 10組 2位 281票 福路美穂子@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A
18位 42.86% 14組 1位 306票 桂ヒナギク@ハヤテのごとく! HEAVEN IS A PLACE ON EARTH
19位 41.77% 13組 3位 264票 千石撫子@偽物語
20位 41.68% 05組 2位 248票 宮永咲@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A

(I'm trying to find a way to compute the total number of (valid) vote each round...haven't got a good way yet and don't know where to find the information).

As impressive as Akarin's win in Group 16 looks (Highest # of votes, biggest margin from 1st to 2nd with 112 votes), let's remember Toki won by 85 against Saki, who won by 56 against Karen (3rd place)...
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Old 2012-08-04, 18:45   Link #490
Team Rocket Elite
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Join Date: Jul 2008
To count valid votes, I counted the number of posts indicated on pages like this:
http://ast2012.saimoe.me/dat/coderesz0730.txt

1-1 --- 471
1-2 --- 494
1-3 --- 566
1-4 --- 500
1-5 --- 595
1-6 --- 615
1-7 --- 559
1-8 --- 670
1-9 --- 791
1-10 --- 644
1-11 --- 730
1-12 --- 692
1-13 --- 632
1-14 --- 714
1-15 --- 619
1-16 --- 721

2-1 --- 647
2-2 --- 591
2-3 --- 538
2-4 --- 555
2-5 --- 494
2-6 --- 601
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Old 2012-08-04, 18:49   Link #491
hinakatbklyn
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Join Date: Nov 2009
Now I see the matchups: Supports and Predictions

Spoiler for Group A:


Spoiler for Group B:


Spoiler for Group C:


Spoiler for Group D:


Spoiler for Group E:


Spoiler for Group F:


Spoiler for Group G:


Spoiler for Group H:
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Old 2012-08-04, 20:33   Link #492
ion475
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Quote:
To count valid votes, I counted the number of posts indicated on pages like this:
I know I can do that...just haven't figured out a fast way to do the counting part (aka anything other than by hand...). Thanks anyway.
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Old 2012-08-04, 20:46   Link #493
Zeroryoko1974
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Oh wow, completely forgot about this. I was just thinking isn't it about time for Saimoe lol
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Old 2012-08-04, 21:17   Link #494
seemmeriast
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Overall
The draw this year is quite balanced. Unlike most previous years, there is no significantly weaker group than the others, meaning that getting into Elite Eight is not a piece of cake for anyone. Group F seems to be Group of Death, but it's still reasonable, not as insane as 2009's Group F. In term of the dominating series Saki, this is an average year for them, not as favorable as 2009 or as bad as 2010. So, I expect about 3-4 Saki girls in this year's Top 8.

(The first three numbers in the bracket  are numbers of characters that finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the first prelim, respectively.)

Group A (1 + 3 + 2 = 6)
This group is mainly dominated by Saki girls. The strongest non-Saki characters are Kobato and Tomoka, but they are not that strong. Kobato may have a chance to defeat Saki herself, but I don't think she will be able to beat Koromo, who is likely to defeat Tomoka and Tacos in second and third rounds. Speaking of Koromo, her success in the past was partly because of her luck. She was placed in the weakest group both in 2009 and 2010 and won it easily both year. This year her group is more challenging, but I still expect her to win again and become the first character in Saimoe history to reach Elite Eight 3 times.
Prediction: Kobato vs Koromo

Group B (3 + 1 + 2 = 6)
On the left side, Toki's path to group final is very clear. Iori can't stop her if assassination doesn't occur. On the right side, Akarin will meet Azusa in Round 2, but I don't think people still want the previous champion again. I doubt that Azusa may not even pass Yuno in the first round, since Yuno just needs to get into second round for her 6th time in order to break Nanoha's record. Misaki Mei is also a tough opponent in Round 3, but Akarin should still be able to defeat her.
Prediction: Toki vs Akarin

Group C (0 + 2 + 2 = 4)
Kyouko will face split vote in the first round, but I don't think that will be any problem at all since Rise isn't even comparable to her, plus Shizu is not very strong. Then, Kyouko is likely to defeat Hisa. Lotte may also face split vote in Round 2 if Asuha wins, but that's not a problem either. Ui, Yune, and Erica have almost equal chances, but I expect to see the revenge match of last year's quarterfinalists Lotte vs Erica in Round 3, with Lotte's victory.
Prediction: Kyouko vs Lotte

Group D (1 + 2 + 1 = 4)
This group contains most Saki characters, but only Mihoko is the strong one, and her path is quite clear. I don't see anyone who can stop her before reaching group final. On the other side, Nagi will defeat either Louise or Touka, and might defeat Mihoko as well in group final.
Prediction: Mihoko vs Nagi

Group E (2 + 1 + 1 = 4)
Touwa Erio is not what she was last year, so I don't think she stands any chance against Hina. Yuu will defeat her teammate Arata in the all-Saki match and advance to the tough match against 2009's winner and runner-up in the second round. I think Yuu is capable of defeating both of them as well as Charlotte (or Rin) in the third round.
Prediction: Hina vs Yuu (Can't choose the winner... Let's call it a tie!)

Group F (6 + 0 + 5 = 11)
This year's Group of Death, especially on the right-hand side of the group - the real evil. We have FIVE prelim winners there. (None of them will meet in the first round, though.) This is really hard to predict, but let's see... First, if Ryuuka beats Mugi, we will have a match between three prelim winners in Round 2, which will be a really bad news for Saki to have split vote between two of its aces against a strong character like Nyaruko. In that case, Nyaruko is likely to win. However, I think Chitanda is stronger than Ririchiyo-sama and Nyaruko, plus she will get revenge votes from Saki fans in her match with Nyaruko, so we should have Chitanda in the group final. (Even if Ryuuka doesn't beat Mugi, I still think that Chitanda may be able to defeat Kuro.) On the left side, Kirame will have a challenging match against Ohana and Karen, but she will beat them as well as Yui (Funami) in Round 3. For the group final, KyoAni just has to get its character into Top 8 every year since 2005 (except, well, last year).
Prediction: Kirame vs Chitanda

Group G (2 + 3 + 2 = 7)
Another group with a lot of strong Saki girls. The strongest non-Saki character here is Ika Musume. Last year, she was probably the strongest non-Madoka girl and only lost to the eventual champion, but this year's prelim makes me doubt whether she is still that strong. Anyway, she should have a decent fight with Ako in the second round, which the winner is likely to defeat Yamada in the next round. Both of them have almost equal possibilities to win, but I will go for Ako. On the other side, Nodoka is somewhat stronger than Momo. I want to see Nodoka vs Aria in Round 3 to add one more Kugimiya to her collection. (Nagi, Louise, Taiga, Shana, Tacos; only failed to defeat Taiga.)
Prediction: Nodoka vs Ako

Group H (2 + 3 + 1 = 6)
On the left side, Shana, Black Lotus, and Poplar are all possible to reach group final. I think it will eventually be Shana who makes it. On the right side, Kana doesn't stand a chance against Sena in the second round. We may have Mio vs Sena in the third round, and the latter is likely to win.
Prediction: Shana vs Sena

Last edited by seemmeriast; 2012-08-05 at 17:42.
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Old 2012-08-04, 21:22   Link #495
Zeroryoko1974
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Did I read that right, 43 Saki characters?
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Old 2012-08-05, 00:41   Link #496
RJ TAYLER
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Join Date: May 2009
Location: AUSTRALIA
Yes you did.

Not giving a prediction as mine tend to be a kiss of death worthy of VFL Great Lou Richards (infamous for getting tips wrong come finals time), however this might be the year of the 'stayer' in racing parlance, with even Ai having her best shot to advance a round since 2010.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL THE GIRLS, YOU SURE GOING TO NEED IT.
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Old 2012-08-05, 00:42   Link #497
Aya Reiko
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All characters grouped togethet by series:

Images
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It awaits...

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Old 2012-08-05, 01:31   Link #498
seemmeriast
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Now Saki group is bigger than the next four groups combined.
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Old 2012-08-05, 01:35   Link #499
Coldlight
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Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Under the piercing blue sky
I see several painful matches for Round 1.

But this isn't going to be Saimoe without the promise of rage and butthurt, right?
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Old 2012-08-05, 03:36   Link #500
anisu
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Quote:
(No Seiyuu, all from Saki) - 8
Now that's a statistic.

Quote:
B Block: Akarin Toki
Oh hell no. This block might decide the tournament, since we'll find out whether Saki at full power can beat their opposition at full power. If Akarin can't stop them, we'll be in Madoka territory. If Akarin does win, Saki doesn't have anyone stronger to hit her with in the finals.

Kyouko is weaker than Akarin, so that leaves Nagi as the obvious anti-Saki standard bearer in the finals should Akarin lose. The rest of the field will have to prove themselves and hope for upsets.

Two first round matches to watch are Shizuno vs Kyouko in C and Mugi vs Ryuuka in F. These should give us indications of Yuru Yuri's degree of organization and the level of anti-Saki voting going on.
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