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Old 2012-03-16, 00:19   Link #41
Ridwan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChainLegacy View Post
The thing is, at that point Rome was just a backwater civilization with little to call an empire. Were they lost to history, their heavily Mediterranean cultural inheritance from the Greeks would never filter into Western Europe at the rate it did.

If the Gauls conquered Rome, they would not then transfer Greek knowledge as the Romans had, for this was prior to Rome exerting any influence over Western Europe. Of course, Greek merchants were already having an influence on the Celtic peoples as far back as the Hallstat cultures, but the influence had more to do with status symbol items like wine and amphorae. Material culture, values, philosophy, and of course religion were all heavily altered in Western Europe by the Roman Empire. In their absence, there would be no Christian Europe, far less philosophical ideology from the Greek masters (individualism being a big one), and probably a number of other intangible cultural qualities would be different. Remember, while the Celts and Germanic tribes were related to the Romans, they were in many ways completely separate cultures, cut off for thousands of years.

Your assertion that military differences would be the main discernible change I would have to disagree with. For a parallel, look at Japanese culture. Since the Meiji Restoration, Japan has opened its culture to the West and actively promoted cultural diffusion so as to better compete. In the span of 150 years they have made a massive transformation and while their culture is still quite different from Western cultures, the similarities are striking for such a short period of change. One can see how, in a Roman-dominated Europe, the Celts would be forced to adopt Roman ways to survive, much like the Japanese during the Meiji era. Except in the Celts' case they had hundreds of years to be assimilated and lose their culture. Without a Roman empire to unite and homogenize these disparate groups around Western Europe, the cultural traditions of the West may have been completely different.

But yes, militarily things would be completely different. Which would tie in to different ethnic lines along Europe. Germanic invasions, as well as Latin settlement, could have happened at much different rates. The Celts, who were more or less absorbed by all the latecomers into Western Europe, might have continued to exist as a cultural group.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kokukirin View Post
If Gauls were to conquer Rome, their closer proximity to Greece would almost certainly increase trade and possibly warfare between them. In most cases of history, the cultural centre of a region always spread their culture and influence the people coming into contact. Usually the less-developed civilizations would borrow heavily from it, bringing in its philosophies, cultures, literatures, and religion. It happened to civilizations around China. It happened to Romans and Persians around actual Greece. Almost inevitably the Gauls would be heavily influenced by the Greeks in the imaginary scenario as well.

I didn't make it clear in my last post. My main point was that whoever conquered Italy at the time would likely be unable to replicate Roman's military success. Such dominance in military might for extended period of time is very rare. And consequently, the events that required the Roman military successes could not be counted on to happen. Such events include many that you pointed out: the assimilation of Celtic and Germanic tribes into a common culture, the establishment of Christendom across Europe. So yes, I agree with your assessment here.
I actually had done this in my previous post, but there is a timeline that you guys will might find it interesting. It's The Weighted Scales: The World of an Aborted Rome, a scenario authored by a friend. It's a world where Rome got destroyed by the invading Gallic tribe of the Senones who ravaged central Italy and put away any hope for the natives to build any great empire in the future.
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Old 2012-03-16, 00:48   Link #42
Ithekro
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We are talking in the Roman Republic period, right?

What would having no Rome do for something like Christianity even forming. Judea isn't controlled by Rome...there would be no need for any anti-Roman factions. No need for a revolution. No need for a messiah. If you believe in Jesus living or not, there would be no cause there to stir the people to the levels they were at around 30 AD. No Jewish rebels. None of that. If you believe the religious aspect, then God might have held off sending down Jesus until later. If you don't then there would have been no need for their to be even a tale of this holy figure or his deciples running around the Roman Empire speading his words and tales. No need for some Jewish sect to start causing trouble against Rome because they won't worship the Emperor.

Makes one wonder.
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Old 2012-03-16, 02:47   Link #43
Kokukirin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
We are talking in the Roman Republic period, right?

What would having no Rome do for something like Christianity even forming. Judea isn't controlled by Rome...there would be no need for any anti-Roman factions. No need for a revolution. No need for a messiah. If you believe in Jesus living or not, there would be no cause there to stir the people to the levels they were at around 30 AD. No Jewish rebels. None of that. If you believe the religious aspect, then God might have held off sending down Jesus until later. If you don't then there would have been no need for their to be even a tale of this holy figure or his deciples running around the Roman Empire speading his words and tales. No need for some Jewish sect to start causing trouble against Rome because they won't worship the Emperor.

Makes one wonder.
Well, that's certainly untrue.

Judea was well-known for its numerous rebellions and hard-to-rule people. It revolted against Assyria, Babylon, and Seleucid. The Jewish culture did not fit well with whoever conquered the land. I think only Persia had relative success because of their more tolerant policies.

Without Roman Empire, Judea would still be ruled by the regional power. It was too small to maintain independence at the boundary of several great powers. But it was also impossible assimilate the people into the more mainstream culture of the time. Herod and his descendents were Jewish by blood but even then they had trouble ruling Judea. By the time Titus conquered Jerusalem, the city was a hellhole with a few factions fighting each other while starving. Whoever ruled Judea in place of Rome most likely could not do any better.

Messiah was promised in the Old Testament. So in times of turmoil, some people would lay claim to that title. Jesus was not the only prophet to come out at the time. There were many before and after him. That's perhaps part of the reason why Jesus was not widely mentioned in historic records at his time. He was made famous by the disciples after his death (and resurrection), especially Paul who spread the word all over the world.

In my opinion Judea's fate was unavoidable. One way or another it would rebel against whoever ruled the land. The rebelion would sooner or later fail. Eventually the conqueror would decide to uproot the Jews from the Levant and try to destroy Judalism. The Second Temple, as the centre of their worship, would be the first thing to fall. The Jews would still go on exile for centuries.

Last edited by Kokukirin; 2012-03-16 at 02:58.
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Old 2012-03-16, 03:13   Link #44
Ithekro
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Wouldn't they have still been the Hasmonean dynasty as that time without Rome? Depending on what happens to the Parthian Empire or the Seleucid Empire of course. They have managed to be indepenant from time to time and one of those times was within a hundred years of Jesus.
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Old 2012-03-16, 11:54   Link #45
Kokukirin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
Wouldn't they have still been the Hasmonean dynasty as that time without Rome? Depending on what happens to the Parthian Empire or the Seleucid Empire of course. They have managed to be indepenant from time to time and one of those times was within a hundred years of Jesus.
Hasmonean dynasty was a brief period of Jewish independence that coincided with the gradual weakening of Seleucid Empire and Ptolemaic Egypt. It lasted as long as the power vacuum was there. When Roman Republic expanded, the Maccabees soon became its vessel state.

Even if Roman Republic was eliminated by the Gauls, eventually there would be a power to take over the region. The Jews would become subjects to the power, and eventually revolt.

But whether we would see some form of religion originated from Judea and spread across the Western world is anyone's guess. It needed someone like Paul to spread it around and a converted emperor like Constantine the Great to make it a state religion. In an alternate world, perhaps the pagan worships would last much longer.
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Old 2012-03-16, 16:25   Link #46
Ridwan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
I still need time to actually get my notes out, but basically, there was the Herbert Hoover - Bonner Fellers - Joseph Grew connection, which supported a conservative anti-communist Japan. With Fellers being very close to MacArthur, and Hoover being a major figure within the Republican Party, the connection was able to steer MacArthur towards the policies they wanted in part because it was what MacArthur believed, and in part using the Republican presidential candidate as a bait.

Despite the heaps of abuse that Hoover suffered for the Great Depression, he was still influential, being a factor in the nuclear bombing of Japan (having compiled data on Operation Downfall and writing a memo to Truman about a million casualties) and the reconstruction of Japan.

I'll see if I can organize things for you.
Okay, now I think I can see some pieces somewhat. Hoover was a Quaker (!!) while Joseph lived for a period in Japan as US Ambassador there under Hoover. I still haven't figured how Fellers was connected to the lobby, but it seems that he was the one who influenced MacArthur to exonerate Hirohito.

I'll be longing for your notes for the complete picture, but I'll also see if I'll run across the pieces independently at that time. I just hope that there are some good titles out there where I can start exploring from regarding everything related to the subject , especially about the Japanese Quakers...
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Old 2012-03-16, 19:33   Link #47
Sumeragi
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Originally Posted by Aegir View Post
Okay, now I think I can see some pieces somewhat. Hoover was a Quaker (!!) while Joseph lived for a period in Japan as US Ambassador there under Hoover. I still haven't figured how Fellers was connected to the lobby, but it seems that he was the one who influenced MacArthur to exonerate Hirohito.

I'll be longing for your notes for the complete picture, but I'll also see if I'll run across the pieces independently at that time. I just hope that there are some good titles out there where I can start exploring from regarding everything related to the subject , especially about the Japanese Quakers...
The web gets very tangled. However, here's the important parts

- Terasaki Hidenari ("Terry") was First Secretary at the Japanese Embassy in Washington, D.C. in 1941 when Pearl Harbor was bombed, was one of the staff who helped translate the Japanese declaration of war and delivered it (late) to the U.S. government. He held various posts in the Japanese Foreign Affairs department up to 1945 when he became an advisor to the Tenno, and was the official liaison between the Palace and General Douglas MacArthur, the Supreme Allied Commander. Terasaki was married to an American, Gwen Harold, who came from a long line of Quakers. Bonner Fellers, her cousin, was friends with Japanese Quackers such as Watanade Yuri and Kawaii Michiko, who would have connections to the palace. Basically, Fellers was a cousin-in-law to the advisor to the Tenno.

- The Showa Tenno's mother, Empress Dowager Teimei, was herself a Quacker. She's the prime example of the Quacker wives that a number of Japanese leaders had, and she used that network for various means.

- Joseph Grew, who had ties to Herbert Hoover and Fellers. His wife was a descendent of Commodore Perry, attended school in Japan, and had many friends who went on to marry various powerful Japanese figures.

- Jane Norton Grew, a cousin of Joseph Grew, married J. P. Morgan, Jr., and was one reason for the massive loans the Morgan Back gave to Japan in the 20's and 30's, not to mention financing American investments there.

- Herbert Hoover, possibly the most influential Republican in the Quaker network. He was very active in foreign policy after his presidency (most likely he learned from his mistakes). He influenced the occupation of Japan by using anti-communist sentiments, accusing that various liberal policies of SCAP were basically "communist", and seems to have had a hand in keeping the Showa Tenno from trial. He also moved MacArthur with promises of support in a presidencial candidacy bid.
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Old 2012-03-17, 10:42   Link #48
Ridwan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
The web gets very tangled. However, here's the important parts

- Terasaki Hidenari ("Terry") was First Secretary at the Japanese Embassy in Washington, D.C. in 1941 when Pearl Harbor was bombed, was one of the staff who helped translate the Japanese declaration of war and delivered it (late) to the U.S. government. He held various posts in the Japanese Foreign Affairs department up to 1945 when he became an advisor to the Tenno, and was the official liaison between the Palace and General Douglas MacArthur, the Supreme Allied Commander. Terasaki was married to an American, Gwen Harold, who came from a long line of Quakers. Bonner Fellers, her cousin, was friends with Japanese Quackers such as Watanade Yuri and Kawaii Michiko, who would have connections to the palace. Basically, Fellers was a cousin-in-law to the advisor to the Tenno.

- The Showa Tenno's mother, Empress Dowager Teimei, was herself a Quacker. She's the prime example of the Quacker wives that a number of Japanese leaders had, and she used that network for various means.

- Joseph Grew, who had ties to Herbert Hoover and Fellers. His wife was a descendent of Commodore Perry, attended school in Japan, and had many friends who went on to marry various powerful Japanese figures.

- Jane Norton Grew, a cousin of Joseph Grew, married J. P. Morgan, Jr., and was one reason for the massive loans the Morgan Back gave to Japan in the 20's and 30's, not to mention financing American investments there.

- Herbert Hoover, possibly the most influential Republican in the Quaker network. He was very active in foreign policy after his presidency (most likely he learned from his mistakes). He influenced the occupation of Japan by using anti-communist sentiments, accusing that various liberal policies of SCAP were basically "communist", and seems to have had a hand in keeping the Showa Tenno from trial. He also moved MacArthur with promises of support in a presidencial candidacy bid.
I showed this to a friend of mine, a banned member from "that other place". This is his reply :

Quote:
There seems to be a link between Fellers, Hoover and MacArthur, and that might have proven influential in the decision to acquit Hirohito, but I'm skeptical still.

Since I'm limited to using Google Books, I can't neither confirm nor deny it, but most of the info I've found on the subject is linked to a writer called Sterling Seagrave (and his sister, Peggy) and his book "The Yamato dynasty: the secret history of Japan's Imperial family", which reads more as Dan Brown than actual history.

I don't know what source your guy was using, but the sources that point to the quaker cabal all lead back to the Seagraves and their weird little conspiracy theories (Quaker Cabals, Japan secretly keeping and using their WWII plunder to start their post-war economic miracle)

Also, the only source I can find on the Empress Sadako (Teimei) being a Quaker is also related to the Seagraves, and even then only claims that she was raised by Quaker farmers until age 4 and had Christian Teachers, but was still devoted to Shintoism. (The book does mention her being sympathetic to Christians and being surrounded by them at the palace, but then again, Seagraves)

Now, since I don't know what source your guy is using, I can't know whether he's right or wrong, I'm just telling you that, from what I could gather, while there was a Japanese Conservative Lobby and that MacArthur was surrounded by a personal clique, the Quaker Lobby just seems like a weird conspiracy theory.


The influence of Hoover and Fellers is one possibility. Books like this one, on the other hand (page 16) point to Shigeru Yoshida and others in Japan who worked closely with MacArthur and also influenced him.

It should also be noted that Emperor Hirohito wasn't the only one who elluded all responsability. Several War criminals (Imperial Princes, Unit 731) weren't tried or were pardoned. Some even played important roles in the rise of the Yakuza and the Liberal Democratic Party in the post-war! (see Yoshio Kodama)


Bottom line is: maybe the guy is right or maybe some random events were blown out of proportion into a massive Quaker-Republican-Japanese cabal of a conspiracy theory.

I'd check his sources, though.

http://books.google.com.ar/books?id=...rohito&f=false

=============================

PS: I forgot to mention that Hoover was indeed a great influence on MacArthur and one of the architects of a potential MacArthur presidential run in 1948, which is why I didn't dismiss the whole Quaker thing out of hand, despite how preposterous it sounded.

http://books.google.com.ar/books?id=...201948&f=false
So it seems, this Quaker connection thing is seemingly not sufficiently covered by the circulating literatures. Or at least by the ones that are reachable by the netizens restricted only to english. As an Ottomanphile though, this is not the first time for me to encounter this kind of situation However, I don't know if I should assume the likelihood that the Japanese sources have dealt with this matter sufficiently. Have they ? So far I myself haven't find anything about the supposed-Quaker connections of Hirohito's mother in english language... I haven't even found anything satisfactory on the less noble figure like Terasaki....

Of course, for a certain reason, I'm prepared to consider the possibility that I will never be able to confirm them through "outside" sources...

At the very least, I want to be able to confirm the extent of marriage intermingling between American and Japanese elites, and to know as exactly as possible when it started, in order to ensure the lack of cruciality of communism issue to enable Japanese post-war resurgence. I do still wonder however, if MacArthur was the only candidate for his role back then, but by now I can see why indeed if he was...
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Old 2012-03-17, 11:02   Link #49
Sumeragi
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I wouldn't call it a Quaker-Republican-Japanese cabal or a conspiracy. It was more like interlocking interests pushing the entire system towards a conservative Japan (although any Japanese interested in political history knows just how much backdoor dealings are done within Japanese politics). Furthermore, up until the 1950's the old school networks (all that families presenting their girls to society, etc) were still strong enough to greatly influence policies, so what may seem to be a conspiracy clique from the the POV of us was really just business as usual (think about it, if this Quaker group was a cabal, what about the Chinese Lobby?).


Now, for your main question: Who was the alternative to MacArthur? I condensed the potential SCAP heads to the six main military strategists of the Pacific War: King, Marshall, Leahy, Arnold, Nimitz, MacArthur.

Supposing the above people in general followed basic OTL patterns, then Marshall is out for his Europe-first view, Arnold is too busy with the Air Force, and MacArthur was the OTL result. The remaining three are Old Navy professionals, distinct from the political animal like MacArthur (in the sense that they do not have the same kind of ambition or backings). I'm inclined to believe that they would be more open to the New Dealers than the conservative Republicans, or at least they wouldn't start the reverse turn which formed SCAP-2.

Of course, if you have anyone in your mind, just give a list and I'll see if I can find their backgrounds and stuff.




PS: My opinion about "The Yamato dynasty: the secret history of Japan's Imperial family" is that it's too sensationalist. It does open up some info to the English reading people, but still it reads like some tabloid than a real work on history. You have to tone down the thing by at least 75% to get a clearer picture. Still, it did a pretty good job of portraying 2.26, and explains why even know there are plenty of anti-nationalists still being ambivalent about the revolt.
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Old 2012-03-19, 23:58   Link #50
LeoXiao
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It's a kind of specific thing to go into, but what if the Russians had conquered Europe or something, like in 1984, and went about Russianizing the local populations? Here I have made some thoughts about the potential Cyrillicization of the German language, which might have been part of an attempt at assimilation.


Note: "OTL" and "IOTL" stand for "[in] our timeline". It is a convention I have borrowed from...elsewhere.

Example: Их зольте йетцт аигентлих мит дем Шраибен аинес Ауфзатцес бешэфтигт заин, абер дас Тема ист эyссерст лангваилиг унд зо махе их нун геданкен цур Кйриллизирунг дер деутщен шпрахе.

German: Ich sollte jetzt eigentlich mit dem Schreiben eines Aufsatzes beschäftigt sein, aber das Thema ist äußerst langweilig und so mache ich nun Gedanken zur Kyrillisierung der deutschen Sprache.

English translation: I should actually be busy with the writing of an essay right now, but the topic is notably boring and so I am now in thought about the Cyrillicization of the German language.

Notes: People who know German and Cyrillic might notice that I did not do a one-to-one transliteration, but changed some things, namely:
  • - ''sollte'' (should) in the original German has two 'l's, but in the Russian version I just put in a soft sign, rendering it ''зольте'', as AFAIK the pronunciation would be correct if applying Russian conventions. A lot of time in German when you have two 'l's together or an 'hl' (like with the word 'wohl') you get this soft pronunciation.
  • - 'j' and 'y' in my rendering of Russianized German share the same letter, 'й'. This is because the two letters are already very similar anyway.
  • - Though in Russian the German 'ei' sound is rendered 'aй', I decided that to avoid confusion with the 'j' or 'й' sound it should be simply 'аи'.
  • - Though in Russian 'e' is a 'yeh' sound whereas 'э' is 'eh', I decided that this letter is too awkward for such common use (it's kind of a bitch to write), and kept 'e' as 'eh' for German usage while delegating 'э' the position of 'ä'.
  • - There is no such example in the text above, but 'ü' would be replaced with 'ю' (with the 'yu' sound being written as 'йу', or 'ju' in OTL Deutsch), and honestly besides keeping 'ö' the way it is I can't think of any sensible alternative.
  • - The 'ß' letter would simply cease to exist, and be replaced with 'сс'. A rather Soviet thing to do.
  • - The German 'ie' (which creates an 'ee' as in 'glee' sound) will be done away with, with 'и' replacing it. Sometimes in German 'ie' is pronounced 'ee-eh' instead and in such a case we shall naturally use 'иe'.
  • - I am not sure what is more appropriate for the German 'sch' sound, as I have seen it Cyrillicized using both 'ш' and 'щ' before. Anyway, German would only have a need for one of these and given the Soviet style of functionality, I guess they would either use only the simpler one, or use 'щ' when 'sch' is actually spelled out and 'ш' when there is only the "sh" sound, like with the word "Stahl" (steel, pronounced SH-tahl, but we only see an 's'). I kind of like this last idea actually.
  • - 'Ch' of German (that guttural, coughing sound, like in the word "Bach" or "Reich") would be rendered 'x'. This would also be the rendering of 'h', though perhaps there should be an accent over one of them to make the difference clear.
  • - 'Ch' as we understand it in English would be rendered 'ч' and be used for mostly foreign words as German does not use this sound much.
  • - The 'z' and 's' sounds of German, which IOTL share the one letter "s" will be each given their own letters, namely 'c' for 's' and 'з' for 'z'.
  • - The letter 'z' in OTL German, pronounced "ts", will be given as 'ц', as it is in Russian.
  • - The concept of 'v' as a separate letter will be extinguished and replaced with 'f' (ф) and 'w' (в), much like 'ß' is to be replaced with 'cc'.
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Old 2012-04-07, 14:05   Link #51
Ridwan
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Okay, so I'm bumping this thread after so long. First, allow me to apologize for having neglected this thread for so long. Real life and school have been consuming much of my time lately. Second, allow me also to apologize for not really having a particular topic of the day to excuse me bumping this thread, but I don't want this thread to drown too long in the limbo. So I'll just respond to some post and recommending a number of good timelines.

@LeoXiao : I possess pretty much zero competence in dealing with linguistic porns, so I baited your question to those who know more. Here be the responds :


@Sumeragi : I wanted to ask you this immediately back then, but is there any title or two that I can look into to explore about christians in Japan and their role in preserving as much as they could of the pre-occupation order ?

@Kokukirin : I would actually place more confidence for the Persians in having more chance of establishing a stable order over Judea, considering their record there before Alexander's invasion. Certainly that it would only last as long as they won't take Sassanian approach of Zoroastrianizing their subjects (which IOTL was basically a reaction to Christianity, and wasn't a sustainable project).

As for the timelines I would recommend :
> Sweet Wormwood (A TL about Shun dynasty. Much appeal of this work, in addition to its narrative and alternate historical scenario, stems from seeing 17th century Chinese using modern American curses and vulgar speaks without actually stepping out from the world of its age It's like a GARer version of Suikoden set in real world, but better )
> Male Rising (One among very few timelines out there focused in Africa. Based on a real life event in Brazil as its PoD. A band of rebellious muslim slaves exiled from Brazil, bringing over the ideas of radical abolitionism and French Jacobinism, adapted in Islamic context, into the periphery of muslim world, which will exert lasting impact on Islamic sociopolitical intellectualism down the road. Also very notable for its excellent depiction of muslim day-to-day culture from muslim perspective. A must read.)
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Old 2012-04-11, 15:35   Link #52
LeoXiao
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Sorry I didnt respond to this earlier, but now I will.

Quote:
@LeoXiao : I possess pretty much zero competence in dealing with linguistic porns, so I baited your question to those who know more. Here be the responds :
Well, those are some interesting responses. I don't exactly get what is meant by the "ch/ч" comment, since it would'nt be used in my version of German except in loanwords, but regarding the question of why the Russians didn't actually Cyrillize German, the answer is that such imperialist practices were made unpopular by WW2. The only way I could see Cyrillized German being used is if the USSR somehow got an ethnic German population within its own borders (like the Volga Germans or an East Prussian SSR), and then modified the language for the sake of efficiency.


I have read all the updates for Sweet Wormwood; it's pretty entertaining to say the least. The use of language is very... interesting, considering I just got done taking Literary Chinese.
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Old 2012-04-12, 23:48   Link #53
Ridwan
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Originally Posted by LeoXiao View Post
I have read all the updates for Sweet Wormwood; it's pretty entertaining to say the least. The use of language is very... interesting, considering I just got done taking Literary Chinese.
I like it how Li's ignorance for Confucian values imply for that TL's China's future. I hope the author will keep running it.

Though, among China-centered TLs, Hendryk's "Superpower Empire China" TL remains the shining comet. The only thing I will lament about it that its progress have been slloooooowwwww. But I can overlook that since it's a third attempt to improve realism and the outside contributions that he had accomodated into his TL have been all top-notch.



Let's have a new topic. Any interest in alternate religions/sects, alternate conversions and the resultant cultures, or OTL small/extinct religions that you'd like to them being more successful ? For example, a Judaism-off shoot that grows on Persian cultural basis, instead of Roman as in the case with OTL Christianity ? Or Turkic Tengrism organizing into messianic religion ? Or a resurgent Manichaeism ? Or Byzantines conquered by the Caliphate, resulting in Islamized Hellenistic culture the way Persian culture got Islamized IOTL ? (later two are my favorite ideas)
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Old 2012-08-20, 10:03   Link #54
Sumeragi
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This is after seeing a thread from a certain forum:

Most knowledgeable people about Militarist Japan would say that there was no way Japan will be able to join in the invasion of the Soviet Union and avoid being slaughtered. There are various reasons for this, most steaming from the lack of oil and the general inferiority of weapons.


Yet, I believe it was possible for Japan to have done better than what most AH people believe. It stems from the report written after Nomonhan which basically nails down all the main problems of the IJA and recommendations of how to solve the deficiencies.

I'll be posting about this report later this week. I hope it will start some engaging discussions.
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Old 2012-08-20, 10:56   Link #55
Ridwan
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I sure didn't expect this outcome...

I've been wanting to bump this thread since forever but I just lacked the excuse to. Currently I'm struggling to get the reading materials I need to make an Indonesia-centered Timeline where Majapahit avoids Paregreg War which would ultimately lead to an Indonesia more formidable to withstand European colonialism. I'm not sure if this scenario will lead to a Meiji Majapahit or anything but Java does shares a few similarities with Japan that will may come to its advantage, primarily abundance of arable soil and the large population that comes with it. It's far less isolated geographically but at least no where near as close to Europe as Ottoman Empire was(which was also much more stretched, arid, and sparsely populated). OTOH, until the very end IOTL it didn't managed to develop urbanization anywhere near Japanese level, not even today. Still getting it a Latin America level of treatment from Europeans will still mean a large improvement from OTL. One more thing to consider is a stronger local hegemon in place by the time Europeans start coming will change how the whole colonialism game will develop from where it barely starts so lots of butterflies incoming. End of spoiler
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Old 2012-08-20, 11:08   Link #56
DonQuigleone
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
This is after seeing a thread from a certain forum:

Most knowledgeable people about Militarist Japan would say that there was no way Japan will be able to join in the invasion of the Soviet Union and avoid being slaughtered. There are various reasons for this, most steaming from the lack of oil and the general inferiority of weapons.


Yet, I believe it was possible for Japan to have done better than what most AH people believe. It stems from the report written after Nomonhan which basically nails down all the main problems of the IJA and recommendations of how to solve the deficiencies.

I'll be posting about this report later this week. I hope it will start some engaging discussions.
Surely the most significant factor here is the fact that the Soviets would have had to split their forces between the Germany and Japan. The soviets had a hard enough time beating the Germans, if they had had to divert a significant number of troops to Siberia, they would have been put into a losing position.

Anyway, Japan lacked the forces necessary to attack the Soviets as they already were too bogged down in China. If they had managed to defeat the Chinese more quickly and so divert forces to Siberia, they could have prevented the soviets from moving all their Siberian armies west, thus making it much more likely for the Germans to win in the west.

Japan alone didn't really stand a chance against the Soviets though, and the soviet army was definitely better, Khalkin Ghol proved that fairly well.
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Old 2012-08-20, 12:49   Link #57
LeoXiao
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Here are the oft-cited reasons for inevitable Soviet victory in the East:

- Overall Soviet supremacy: The Russian troops had better tanks, more tanks, and better supplies than the Japanese in Manchuria.
- Russia doesn't need to send those Siberian divisions west: In WW2, Stalin always had the troops guarding the Far East at near-full strength, even in 1941-42, in the darkest hour.
- The Japanese were in China already: There is no way Japan can "win" in China fast enough to build up the necessary forces in Manchuria.

Historically, in 1945 the Soviets did really well against the Guandong army because they had built up superior elite armored forces and were fighting against an army that was infantry-based and short on everything from food to artillery to good leadership. They also used surprise to their advantage and blitzed the crap out of the Japanese by charging through some hills which were thought by the IJA to be impassible.

The only way to beat Russia is if there is no 1937 invasion of China proper, which will allow the Japanese to throw their entire force at, say, Vladivostok. They could do this in 1942 and the Soviets wouldn't be able to reinforce their positions with overwhelming armour like they did historically in 1945. Even so, the Japanese will face a strong, much more mobile opponent that can get in their rear easily. A good goal would be to try to get Vladivostok and the area directly around it, and then hold positions there while fending off Soviet attacks through force of numbers and air power (a field in which the Japanese are matched or even superior).
Even in this case, however, the Japanese, being composed of mostly infantry, will suffer more casualties than the Russians and, if they are not led well, may still end up getting routed since they are woefully inexperienced and unequipped in the principles of mobile warfare.

EDIT: Another problem is that if Japan does not achieve a victorious position quickly, it will run out of fuel. They have not discovered the Daqing oilfield yet and I'm not sure if that part of Siberia has any oil. I know Sakhalin does but apparently it was also undeveloped at that time.
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Old 2012-08-20, 13:18   Link #58
Ithekro
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If I recall there were encounters between the Soviets and Japanese from 1932 to 1939 that ended in Japanese defeat (Battles of Khalkhin Gol). The Japanese decided the would sign a treaty to keep the two parties from interfering with each other.

Had the Japanese won these battles they would have gone to war with the Soviets and probably not bothered with the Attack on Pearl Harbor or the Dutch East Indies.
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Old 2012-08-20, 13:36   Link #59
LeoXiao
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A broader issue is that Japan was always a naval power. If they decided to focus on the USSR then that would not be putting their greatest strength to full use, so attacking SE Asia and the US probably seemed like an obviously better idea.
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Old 2012-08-20, 14:17   Link #60
DonQuigleone
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Yes, but what of the German factor? Soviet/Japanese engagements don't take place in a vacuum. The Japanese engaging the Soviets in Siberia would have severely reduced their strength in the west. One of the reasons the Soviets was able to stop the German advance was due to the transferral of the more experienced troops from the Far East, which was only possible because they were sure (due to Espionage) that the Japanese were not going to attack.

If the Japanese had chosen not to attack America at Pearl Harbour, and instead concentrate on defeating the soviets as the Germans attacked from the west, who knows how things could have been different?

Either way, there was clearly an error of communication between Germany and Japan. They were quite uncoordinated considering they shared common enemies. If they could have defeated the Soviets, defeating the rest of the Allies would have been significantly easier.
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