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Old 2012-09-08, 21:13   Link #30441
GuestSpeaker
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That is unless you have 9 hours and enjoy Rosa culprit theory
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Old 2012-09-08, 21:40   Link #30442
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Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker View Post
That is unless you have 9 hours and enjoy Rosa culprit theory
I believe it's full title is: "Rosa felt really bad about getting Kuwadorian Beatrice killed and was also just generally lonely and miserable so she created a Beatrice personality within herself that had the past of a fictional friend of Shannon's named Yasu who for some reason absorbed Shannon's love for Battler so that the Beatrice within Rosa was in love with Battler and committed the murders for his attention but also thought that for some reason she could resurrect the Kuwadorian Beatrice by performing a bizarre murder ritual and happened to get the help of George who himself was also planning to murder the whole family because for some reason he thought that killing people would help him get with Shannon and Nanjo helped too because he needed money for his dying grandchild's medical treatment and had no other recourse but to help the two murderers kill the whole family of his life-long friend in exchange for the money to save his grandchild. Oh, and ShKanon is nonsense." Theory.
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Old 2012-09-08, 22:27   Link #30443
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You and I must have watched completely different 9 hour videos, because I am pretty sure it never made that much sense. Plus it had something about roses.
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Old 2012-09-08, 22:31   Link #30444
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Unfortunately it is impossible for you to prove they can't think individual thoughts separate to yours, it isn't I think therefore you're not.
Yes I can; Yasu can control the thoughts, memories, behaviors, and emotions of her characters, meaning they are not distinctive from herself in any meaningful way. She is an actress. A roleplayer.
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Old 2012-09-08, 22:56   Link #30445
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Gabielous: If you solve the riddle of the epitaph, you should be able to reach the Golden Land.`@` When you have, the ceremony will be over.`@` No more people will die.

There's another loophole. Perhaps Beato's comment doesn't mean "If you solve the epitaph, no more people will die." Perhaps it means "If you reach the Golden Land, no more people will die.", and that, while Eva, Rosa, Battler, and Erika solved the epitaph, they didn't
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Old 2012-09-08, 23:03   Link #30446
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"You should be able to reach the Golden Land. When you have, the ceremony will be over. No more people will die."

We can interpret it was "When you reach the Golden Land the ceremony will be over and no one will die because of it"

So Beato's comment may refer only to the deaths caused by the ceremony. The Man from 19 years ago is only trying to get revenge, not fulfilling the ceremony.

Either this or MO19YA=/=Yasu, which means even if Yasu stops the murders (or in EP6's case, doesn't even begins them) this doesn't means no one will die.
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Old 2012-09-08, 23:08   Link #30447
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Well, here's the thing:

1) Yasu would no longer commit the murders once the epitaph and the gold was found.

2) Did Eva really solve the epitaph?

3) What exactly was Yasu doing in EP5?

You are kind of right with suspecting Eva didn't reach the Golden Land in EP3, but how can you explain what happened in EP5 if Erika and Battler didn't reach the gold?
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Old 2012-09-09, 00:07   Link #30448
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Yes I can; Yasu can control the thoughts, memories, behaviors, and emotions of her characters
What is your proof of that? I didn't think it had been definitively shown...
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Old 2012-09-09, 00:29   Link #30449
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Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker View Post
What is your proof of that? I didn't think it had been definitively shown...
Episode Seven. She can rewrite their personalities and memories on the fly, as if she were rewriting characters in a story. It's pretty blatant.
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Old 2012-09-09, 02:20   Link #30450
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
There's always Kealym's answer, that Shannon and Kanon were always "2 people". They just only had 1 body in every episode but EP5, where they had 2 bodies (each had their own). It gets around "Besides her, the number of people on this island is exactly the same as it was in the previous games." Although in the logic error Shannon + Kanon certainly seem to only contribute 1 to the person count.

I still suspect that the key to EP5's Kanon-Shannon thing has to do with the complete lack of any objective narrator.
Well, in my idea's full conception, Battler is also pulling a bit of a dirty trick for Erika in EP6 because he knows that she THINKS that there are 18 living bodies, every time. Also, I'd say that Kanon's separate quantitative personhood was established by a few reds in EP1-4, so if it runs afould of the Logic Error solution, I can only shrug and go "eh, Ryukishi's writing ability, folks."

"Lack of objective narrator" is certainly possible, but it seems to smack every notion of common sense in the face.

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Regarding the Kanon-Sakutaro comparison.
Yeah, that was all very interesting. Obviously, it was being presented to US in two ways - the way it probably happened in reality, and the way Maria chose to interpret that reality. And then in EP5 we got Natsuhi's old diary's ... and in the next EP we're told that Kyrie kept a diary of sorts as well. At that point I just figured every woman in the cast was going to be revealed as having kept one, so it wasn't all that surprising when Eva's became a huge deal.

Heck, if we had just gotten one from Rosa, it'd have been a Royal Mom Bitterness Flush..!!

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Originally Posted by Morisato View Post
Is there a site somewhere with organized summaries/spoilers of the last couple games?
I agree with just reading through the games, yourself. There's a certain ... quality that you really, really aren't gonna get from even the most robust summary, that effects how you feel about alot of stuff. It's hard to describe.
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That is unless you have 9 hours and enjoy Rosa culprit theory
Har, you know even though Knownomore's theory is kinda silly and crazy, I always DID like me a Rosa culprit theory. When I realy thought about it, she was the only one of the adults I could really "accept" as a culprit.
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Old 2012-09-09, 04:34   Link #30451
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
I believe it's full title is: "Rosa felt really bad about getting Kuwadorian Beatrice killed and was also just generally lonely and miserable so she created a Beatrice personality within herself that had the past of a fictional friend of Shannon's named Yasu who for some reason absorbed Shannon's love for Battler so that the Beatrice within Rosa was in love with Battler and committed the murders for his attention but also thought that for some reason she could resurrect the Kuwadorian Beatrice by performing a bizarre murder ritual and happened to get the help of George who himself was also planning to murder the whole family because for some reason he thought that killing people would help him get with Shannon and Nanjo helped too because he needed money for his dying grandchild's medical treatment and had no other recourse but to help the two murderers kill the whole family of his life-long friend in exchange for the money to save his grandchild. Oh, and ShKanon is nonsense." Theory.
Hear that people? Whoever says the official explanation is far-fetched obviously hasn't read this.

It's funny how this guy is convinced that his theory is the real thing SO MUCH that he dismisses every opposition right off the bat and even makes fun of those who don't agree with him, while he's got no actual proof that the 'official solution' as he likes to call it is bullcrap and nothing to show for all the 'for some reason's that you need when desribing his theory.

I have absolutely nothing against people who make theories, even wild theories about Umineko, some of them are even fun to read and that was kinda the point of keeping an open ending, however when he goes to such lengths to prove that his theory is the real truth (which doesn't make ANY sense at all and violates Knox, by the way) and everyone else is a bunch of stupid idiots who don't know what they're talking about honestly feels like not only he hasn't solved anything, but apparently that he's missed the real message of Umineko.

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Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
Har, you know even though Knownomore's theory is kinda silly and crazy, I always DID like me a Rosa culprit theory. When I realy thought about it, she was the only one of the adults I could really "accept" as a culprit.
Rosa was also my first theory. I could use her to explain the first three EPs. But I abandoned her partway through EP4. I agree, out of the four siblings, she's the one I'd like more as a culprit. But no, KnownNoMore is a different thing. Roses, Kuwadorian, ceremonies, George my ass.....
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Old 2012-09-09, 05:17   Link #30452
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Episode Seven. She can rewrite their personalities and memories on the fly, as if she were rewriting characters in a story. It's pretty blatant
.

Maybe from the point where that has happened, they can be pronounced dead by the red text. It was never stated to happen more than once.

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and in the next EP we're told that Kyrie kept a diary of sorts as well.
It was the 80's, they had no facebook.

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When I realy thought about it, she was the only one of the adults I could really "accept" as a culprit.
That is probably because you lack love for her.

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but apparently that he's missed the real message of Umineko.
I could almost respect his worth, if he wasn't needlessly verbose (that video could only have about 90 minutes of content at best from the parts I have seen) and so happy to handwave away any problems with his theory. To create a theory you can apply to the whole story is clever, to deny any fault is not.

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I could use her to explain the first three EPs.
But she was totes deadballs for most of ep 3!

Though I guess a lot of people must have agreed with you since Ryu felt the need to kill her very early twice in a row.
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Old 2012-09-09, 06:08   Link #30453
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Originally Posted by GabrieliosP View Post
Because '[Beatrice's] cerimony will be over', that does not stop 'the revenge of the man from 19 years ago', even if we assume that Yasu=MO19YA or Yasu=/=MO19YA, then it's still possible for deaths to occur after the epitaph is solved.
That's an interesting theory.

The Beato within Yasu would stop killing... but who said the MO19YA also have to stop killing? Since they're separate identities they can act ndependently.

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Originally Posted by rogerpepitone View Post
What exactly was said?
In the theories? Hum... I don't remember them exactly however it was more or less for:

- the epitaph wasn't solved, the solution was handed to someone

In Ep 3 Beato, in order to gain Eva as accomplice, handed her the solution of the epitaph. Ergo Eva didn't solve the epitaph on her own so her knowing the answer is unvalid to stop the murders.

It was also proposed that Beato handed to Battler the solution in Ep 5 but honestly I don't remember the details of this one well.

- someone else took Yasu's place and killed the people who were faking to be dead like it happens in Ep 6.

The idea was that Yasu stopped killing as soon as the epitaph was solved but someone else ended up resuming the murders for his/her own purpose.

In Ep 3 there was people who pointed at Eva as being the one who continued killing...

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
I believe it's full title is: "Rosa felt really bad about getting Kuwadorian Beatrice killed and was also just generally lonely and miserable so she created a Beatrice personality within herself that had the past of a fictional friend of Shannon's named Yasu who for some reason absorbed Shannon's love for Battler so that the Beatrice within Rosa was in love with Battler and committed the murders for his attention but also thought that for some reason she could resurrect the Kuwadorian Beatrice by performing a bizarre murder ritual and happened to get the help of George who himself was also planning to murder the whole family because for some reason he thought that killing people would help him get with Shannon and Nanjo helped too because he needed money for his dying grandchild's medical treatment and had no other recourse but to help the two murderers kill the whole family of his life-long friend in exchange for the money to save his grandchild. Oh, and ShKanon is nonsense." Theory.
This is an awesome summary! Too bad the theory it summarized it's not equally awesome.
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Old 2012-09-09, 06:12   Link #30454
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Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
Well, in my idea's full conception, Battler is also pulling a bit of a dirty trick for Erika in EP6 because he knows that she THINKS that there are 18 living bodies, every time."
Yes, but I never said anything about the number of bodies in EP6. The following 2 reds indicate that ShKanon only contributed 1 to the person count.

I acknowledge that everyone else is in the cousins' room.

At the time the next room over was sealed, Hideyoshi, George, Kumasawa, Shannon, and Nanjo were in it. And, the number of people in the next room over was five. No one existed there except for those to whom those five names referred! All people can only use their own names!!


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Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
Also, I'd say that Kanon's separate quantitative personhood was established by a few reds in EP1-4,
Certainly the reds in EP3 indicated that ShKanon contributed 2 to the person count, so if you want to see it as just the Gamemasters abusing their privileges you could interpret it like this:

EP 1-4: ShKanon = 2 people, 1 body
EP 5: ShKanon = 2 people, 2 bodies
EP 6: ShKanon = 1 person, 1 body

But I have difficulty accepting this because the whole concept of ShKanon only counting as 1 person seems to be the key point about the whole story that we're supposed to learn in EP6, so regardless of the issue of the number of bodies, the person count we get from ShKanon should remain consistent at 1 throughout all games. And in fact it was Beatrice in EP6, not Battler, that said the red that restricted ShKanon to counting as 1 person.

And I'm not going to go down the road of 1 person, 2 bodies. This is why I can't agree with your interpretation of the ShKanon issue in EP5.

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Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
so if it runs afould of the Logic Error solution, I can only shrug and go "eh, Ryukishi's writing ability, folks.

"Lack of objective narrator" is certainly possible, but it seems to smack every notion of common sense in the face.
But if we've got that kind of flagrant inconsistency in the personhood system of ShKanon between EP3 and EP6, then the merit of even having a 2 body explanation for EP5 becomes questionable. ShKanon would already be broken, so why bother explaining that part at all?

So I think the proper approach is start from the assumption that Ryukishi isn't incompetent and come up with the most satisfying explanation for the whole issue of ShKanon's personhood as possible. After all, it says in Umineko itself that you can't find an answer to Beatrice's enigma unless you trust that there is an answer. And that's how I came up with ShKanon Replacement Theory (just named it that now, but you're familiar with it; it's the idea where no more than one ShKanon can exist at a given time, but more than one can be "dead" at a given time). Of course that leads us to ShKanon only being 1 person in EP5 as well, which leads us to a "no objective narrator" interpretation for EP5. At least, I haven't heard of anything more satisfying yet.

Of course, you can always just call it a day and chalk it up to Ryukishi's incompetence, but then it's certain that you'll never find an answer (assuming there is one!).
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Old 2012-09-09, 06:13   Link #30455
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I could almost respect his worth, if he wasn't needlessly verbose (that video could only have about 90 minutes of content at best from the parts I have seen) and so happy to handwave away any problems with his theory. To create a theory you can apply to the whole story is clever, to deny any fault is not.
I think the way he presents everything also has something to do with the response he gets, because his theory makes even less freakin' sense than the Shkannon he so condemns. And I don't think being full of yourself is anything to repsect.

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But she was totes deadballs for most of ep 3!
See, my theory was that in the first EP, since we can't really see her face, she might as well have used a backup corpse, plus Maria would cover for her own mother. On the second one, come on now.... And on the third, she was killed by Eva who discovered the gold thus claimed the title of Beatrice. As for the fourth, I had absolutely no idea what the hell happened

Of course, Rosa was only one of many theories I had at first, but one of the most conclusive ones... Ah, those were good times, no Knox, no Dine, no fair.....

(By the way, in KnownNoMore's explanation of the first twilight she uses some sort of unknown death drug to fake her death and splatters makeup on her face. And then she waits for the survivors to leave the scene and smashes the freakin' door to get out.... Seriously, what the...)
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Old 2012-09-09, 06:46   Link #30456
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Is there a site somewhere with organized summaries/spoilers of the last couple games?

Seems like a season 2 of the anime is unlikely so I kinda want to know how this ends...
I never understand why people ask things like this. What is it that makes people so reluctant to just read the VNs themselves?
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Old 2012-09-09, 09:03   Link #30457
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
I still hold the claim that any logic used about the "truth" of Umineko requires assumptions that other people can't accept, and are thus circular arguments.
And I still claim that an assumption does not necessarily implicate a circular logic. Frankly the last thing I think when I assume X is that by assuming X I can argue that X is true.
By the way you make it sound as if it is just something related to Umineko while many theories in physic are based on assumptions.
Actually one could say that the very scientific method is based on an assumption.


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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Actually, now that I look at it, this whole argument you made here is demonstrably circular:

You see, Ikuko not being Yasu was necessary for your premise to be true because only if Ikuko is not Yasu can she exist as an example of someone other than Yasu.
  • Implicit: Ikuko isn't Yasu.
  • Explicit: (Therefore) Yasu didn't adopt an amnesiac <==(ONLY TRUE IF IKUKO IS NOT YASU, THUS THE IMPLICIT PREMISE)
  • Explicit: Therefore Wanderer can't show that Yasu didn't do it without being circular, which is a fallacious argument anyway.
  • Implicit: Therefore Ikuko isn't Yasu.
So there you go.
Your interpretation of my statement is wrong.
The whole discourse until that point was about commonalities between "Battler" and "Tohya" and "Yasu" and "Ikuko" to demonstrate which would be the case with more coincidential similarities.

"Ikuko" in this case refers to the person that goes by that name and that is presented with the specific sprite of Ikuko. No assumption about her identity other than that was made.

"Yasu didn't do it" refers to the fact that the one that we are certain (or that we both can agree that) is Yasu, didn't do that.

Therefore a relation cannot be established.

To make a comparison it's as if I said that Battler and Tohya are the same person because they are both amnesiacs. You'll be well entitled to argue at that point that excluding Tohya\Battler (whose identity is being argued) we cannot say that Battler was an amnesiac at all.
For the same reason excluding Ikuko\Yasu (whose identity is being argued) we cannot say that Yasu ever adopted an amnesiac nor that there is a hint that she would do that.

I hope it's clear now.

As a side note, just to be sure, I will not accept any kind of argument on the line: "If you do not accept my assumption that Yasu is Ikuko then you automatically assume she's not!"
This kind of reasoning would deny the fact that it's possible to make reasonings with unknown variables.

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
"A well defined formal fallacy, logical fallacy or deductive fallacy, is typically called an invalid argument. An informal fallacy is argument that may fail to be rationally persuasive."

So in fact, not only do these two quotes not support your argument at all, but one of them actually supports mine.
That's still a long shot from claiming that an "informal fallacy" is a "valid logic" or that "fallacy" and "valid" aren't antithetic. All that you have proved so far is that an "Informal fallacy" is not "formally invalid" which is almost tautological since if the fallacy is informal that means there's no fallacy in the form.


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Of course it does. But as far as I can tell you've been arguing that circular reasoning is invalid by definition, not by opinion.
In the context of a discussion it's always invalid by definition. I think the article you asked me so many times to read is almost entirely focused on demonstrating that.

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
What's your point? That there must be 2 or more premises? You can always decompress any argument into a syllogism or sequence of syllogisms, right?

And what's with you pulling a logic-related definition after claiming you're not using logic-lingo?
That's not just my point since I quoted a dictionary. You interpreted "jointly asserted" in the wrong way, by the way.
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/jointly
What it means is that both parties involved in the discussion must agree that the premises (or the premise if it's one) are true.

Anyway I think I demonstrated that it is perfecly legit in english to state that a "logic is invalid" even in those cases where the fallacy is purely informal. Because even if you say that a specific termonology would require you to rather say that the "logic is unsound", it is a fact that "valid" and "sound" are generally treated as synonim.


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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
There are two ways I've got at the moment to approach the issue: 1) An appeal to the theme of miracles. 2) It's not a coincidence (as in, Yasu-as-Ikuko knew where Battler would be for some reason).
You can't talk about how your theory is more probable than mine if you appeal to miracles.

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
By the way, what do you think Ryuukishi was doing with the 19ko pun?
The same thing that he was doing with the 34 pun. If Sayo isn't Miyo then Ikuko isn't necessarily Beatrice. "Spiritual successor" seems to fit nicely with both.

Anyway if you are arguing that Tohya isn't Battler, then you can no longer say that a number pun must definitely implicate that the characters involved are the exact same person.
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Old 2012-09-09, 09:14   Link #30458
jjblue1
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Originally Posted by Drifloon View Post
I never understand why people ask things like this. What is it that makes people so reluctant to just read the VNs themselves?
Well, it's the most common way to handle any other story from what I've seen in other fandoms so far.
It also looks way faster and generally easier than getting the 4 missing episodes of the visual novel and read them all. Plus who's asking is often someone who had seen the anime only so he/she might be willing to watch a second anime series but not be interested in reading a long tale... especially if they don't know about Witch Hunt's awesome job at translating it.

Another keypoint is that who read the visual novel might know the importance of reading it while who hasn't... likely doesn't.

Since I've also started with the anime I know the feeling of thinking that a summary of the second part might solve everything and it was thanks to a friend who was into the visual novel and told me a couple of things about how great was the visual novel compared to the anime and how a mere summary couldn't just cover it all that I decided to read the visual novel (my first visual novel by the way).

So I think that everyone who's unfamiliar with visual novels and gets to know Umineko by the anime is more prone to ask for a summary than decide to go through the visual novel.

Of course this doesn't apply to everyone but probably to a good amount of the anime viewers.
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Old 2012-09-09, 09:42   Link #30459
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So I think that everyone who's unfamiliar with visual novels and gets to know Umineko by the anime is more prone to ask for a summary than decide to go through the visual novel.
That's criminally wrong! The anime should be banned or something.
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Old 2012-09-09, 09:51   Link #30460
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That's criminally wrong! The anime should be banned or something.
LOL
This would mean banning not just Umineko but a lot of anime... as out of late anime I'm ending up seeing more and more anime that only cover a part of a story (sometimes well, sometimes... -_-) and that push casual viewers to ask for summaries of 'what follow after' to the fandoms.

Not mentioning a case where a fandom decided that the anime was... sort of the main canon and the manga on which it was based was... well of secondary importance. Though luckily the fandom attitude had changed over the years...
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