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Old 2012-09-09, 20:48   Link #5181
GDB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeijiSensei View Post
So can someone explain to me how the Jets, who I thought had largely been written off this season, could trounce the Bills, who many saw as the up-and-coming threat to the Pats' dominance in the AFC East? Any thoughts, FDW?
The Tebow Effect?
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Old 2012-09-09, 20:51   Link #5182
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Originally Posted by SeijiSensei View Post
I'm not saying you're wrong. i thought Fitzpatrick and the Bills looked like formidable competitors down the stretch last season. So what happened today?
Keep in mind that behind all my predicted win total are a series of "Phantom" win ranges. While I've rated The Jets lowly and The Bills highly, I've never really throw out the possibly of the reversal of that, given that The Jets have made it to the AFC Championship game twice in the last four years and combination of injuries and inconsistency that's hobbled The Bills in recent years. Though keep in mind, it's only the first game, no time to pull out the panic button.

EDIT: To repeat, I'm not that much of a football expert, and half the picks I make in games are kind of random.
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Old 2012-09-09, 20:58   Link #5183
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Originally Posted by FDW View Post
Keep in mind that behind all my predicted win total are a series of "Phantom" win ranges. While I've rated The Jets lowly and The Bills highly, I've never really throw out the possibly of the reversal of that, given that The Jets have made it to the AFC Championship game twice in the last four years and combination of injuries and inconsistency that's hobbled The Bills in recent years. Though keep in mind, it's only the first game, no time to pull out the panic button.

EDIT: To repeat, I'm not that much of a football expert, and half the picks I make in games are kind of random.
You may not be an expect, but you make guesses like one. Just like all Sports, anything can happen. I like your guesses and you gave clear reasons for them.
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Old 2012-09-09, 21:31   Link #5184
creb
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Originally Posted by SeijiSensei View Post
Turns out it was also the first year of the 16-game schedule, too.

The Patriots showed a running game for the first time in years. Stevan Ridley had 125 yards in 21 carries against the Titans along with another 27 receiving yards. The Pats scoring drive near the end of the third quarter started at the TEN 48 and consisted of two short passes by Brady and the rest was Ridley. Brady and a running game? Scary.

So can someone explain to me how the Jets, who I thought had largely been written off this season, could trounce the Bills, who many saw as the up-and-coming threat to the Pats' dominance in the AFC East? Any thoughts, FDW?

I'm not saying you're wrong. i thought Fitzpatrick and the Bills looked like formidable competitors down the stretch last season. So what happened today?

Nice to see the Niners win.
I'm pretty sure only the media thought anything good about the Bills. I certainly don't know a single real person that thought anything good about the Bills. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out how a media that is increasingly having to rely on soundbites in today's generation of 24/7 news would think the story of a team that hasn't been relevant in over a decade might be alluring.

It's kind of like how obvious it was that ESPN was hoping for Penn State to win its opening game. I laugh at how much money they probably spent on their redemption season story, that largely got scuttled, when Penn State lost to a MAC team.

TLDR: Some stories are real, and others are manufactured. Bills being a legit team, is a manufactured story. Despite winning, I'm convinced the Jets being dysfunctional is a real story.

Now, I'll admit, I've thought the Jets are a fairly horrible team, and that the best one can really expect from Mark Sanchez is a game manager quarterback. I think their window was as wide open as it could be in the first year or two that they had Sanchez. I think their team is just getting worse now, and I suspect in another year or two, all pretense of being a contender will be thrown out the window and people will have to accept the team is going to be rebuilding.

While I think FDW is extreme in his views, I'd predict mediocre seasons for both the Jets and the Bills. Likely in the 6-7 win range.

I'm torn about how to feel about the Niners/Packers game. I hate the Packers, so their loss is great, but I hate the Niners as well, so it all sort of comes out to this neutral feeling. Now, I'm willing to put my hate for the Niners aside to admit that they are already looking like a serious contender for reaching the SB.

I was surprised at RG3's performance today. I figured he'd be a complete bust, and while it's only one game, he's now getting the benefit of my doubt. I'm still not convinced he's going to have any long term success, but I'm now a lot more open to the possibility.

I'm pulling for the Bears to take the NFC North this year, and they got off to a good start. I can't wait 'till they play the Packers.

Peyton is looking good. That said, I have no real expectations from him this year. A year off is a long time. I do expect great things from him next year though.

As a Badger, I was glad to see Russel Wilson get his starting shot with the Seahawks. Hate to see any team lose to Arizona, which I consider one of the most dysfunctional teams in the NFL.

I wonder, after the Saint's loss, if that's simply because there's no one at their practices enforcing the fear of God into the players to get their acts together. They looked pretty bad. I'm generally very skeptical of the effect one individual head coach has over any other individual head coach, but having spent K-12 playing soccer, one area I firmly believe a coach has an effect on is player discipline. I remember one year, our team had more talent than was remotely fair, even going so far as to fudge the rules to get good players outside our district, but our coaching staff was a mess, and we had a mediocre season.

I was a big fan of Vick during his first year as a starter for the Eagles. Since then, he seems to be getting worse and worse. I think if this year continues on without some signs that he's going to reverse his regression, the Eagles need to seriously start thinking about finding a replacement QB.
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Old 2012-09-09, 22:30   Link #5185
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Originally Posted by creb View Post
I was surprised at RG3's performance today. I figured he'd be a complete bust, and while it's only one game, he's now getting the benefit of my doubt. I'm still not convinced he's going to have any long term success, but I'm now a lot more open to the possibility.
The thing with SuperQuarterback is that he was put into a situation where he already has a talented team behind him from day one, so it was (and will likely be) comparatively easy for him to look good this year. Andrew Luck on the other hand is dealing with a franchise that is quite literally rebuilding itself from the ground up, much the same situation that Alex Smith found himself in when The Niners drafted him in 2005.
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Old 2012-09-09, 22:55   Link #5186
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Reactions to games today:

Eagles/Browns: holy crap...the browns QB finished below a 10 QB rating, and the Eagles won by 1 measly point in the last two minutes. The best running back in the league, and the playcalling is atrocious, and Vick was waaaaay off his game, and the offensive line just racked up the holding penalties. If that shit isn't fixed next week, Ray Lewis and his birds are going to stomp all over the Iggiez.

Niners/Packers: Jim Harbaugh's a badass, and dat D is damn good. It's freaking amazing what Harbaugh has done with a very average QB.

Colts (errr Broncos--whatever...the Peytons)/Steelers: Peyton made everyone look like idiots. That is all. Wait, that's not all. Tracy Porter epic trolled Roflsburger the same way he trolled Peyton in the super bowl. Peyton musta gotten a nyuk nyuk nyuk outta that one. And at this rate, I see the AFC super bowl being the winner of New England vs. Denver. Peyton vs. Brady--what else is new?
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Old 2012-09-09, 23:14   Link #5187
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Seems like the Packer defense still retains many flaws from last year. I don't know what Capers (Defensive Coordinator) was thinking having our corners play so far off their receiver, it gives them so much room to run around, and trying to make a LB try to cover Randy Moss? Seriously? The defense was so much better when corners were using press coverage in 2010, go back to what works! Also, it seems that our pass rush was either 3 men, or all out blitzes. It is possible to send a number of people after the QB that isn't 3 or 11. Try 4, 5, or maybe 6, all of them are possible! Either way, Jarrett Bush is not an NFL caliber corner and it might be time to give the rookies a try, reffing didn't help either.
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Old 2012-09-09, 23:30   Link #5188
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Originally Posted by Demongod86 View Post
Niners/Packers: Jim Harbaugh's a badass, and dat D is damn good. It's freaking amazing what Harbaugh has done with a very average QB.
Alex Smith isn't average, he just looks that way because he spent six seasons playing under staff and ownership who didn't have a clue what to do with him, a merry-go-round he experienced with offensive coordinators, and a tilt-a-whirl that he experienced at WR. Any QB would've fared horribly in those conditions.
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Old 2012-09-09, 23:40   Link #5189
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I wish i could explode about RGIII and the boys but i was at work............SOB

Oh well, HAIL!
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Old 2012-09-09, 23:58   Link #5190
Samari
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FDW View Post
Alex Smith isn't average, he just looks that way because he spent six seasons playing under staff and ownership who didn't have a clue what to do with him, a merry-go-round he experienced with offensive coordinators, and a tilt-a-whirl that he experienced at WR. Any QB would've fared horribly in those conditions.
These days any quarterback that doesn't put up fantasy football numbers is average to people. Smith at this point I'd say is decent, but he's better than your "average" starter a la Kyle Orton or Matt Moore.

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Originally Posted by FDW View Post
It's certainly not guaranteed, but it's still a definite possibility if things go right. And I agree with you about Frank Gore, and I actually think he's going to be around for at least another five seasons after this year. (Though he'll probably end up conceding the No.1 Rusher slot to Kendall Hunter at some point before then)
Five seasons after this one and he'd be 34. That's not happening.
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Old 2012-09-10, 01:13   Link #5191
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Five seasons after this one and he'd be 34. That's not happening.
Well, I think otherwise, since he no longer has to be the entire offense. And he'd hardly be an outlier in playing until the age of 35, I mean John Riggins, Marcus Allen, Ricky Williams and Emmitt Smith all managed to play until that age at the RB position.
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Old 2012-09-10, 03:06   Link #5192
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RGIII looked very very good. That one pass he threw across the field to the sideline was just sick. Dear me, the Redskin actually may have a credible offense this season. The skin-fans appear to have something to be excited about for real.

I'm also very happy for Peyton. He looked the old Peyton, especially in the second half. Niners just dominated. Their defense seem even stronger this year.

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Originally Posted by GDB View Post
Only if Vilma can prove that Goodell willfully defamed him with malice aforethought. It's not on the defendant to prove his innocence until the one suing him can prove his guilt.
Considering a commissioner of the NFL brought a charge specifically against four defensive players and suspended them because they were taking money to injure, it might be as easy as the following for Vilma:

Judge: "What brings you here gentlemen?"

Vilma: "Your honor, that dude told everyone I took money to injure players. Everything I've accomplished as a linebacker in the NFL is tarnished forever. I want 6.8 trillion dollars in damages, a 500-word essay, double spaced, stating how profusely sorry he is, and a night with his wife for quality times providing his wife is hot as balls."

Judge: "What say you, Goodell?"

Goodell: "Your honor, I've 50,000 documents (the actual number NFL claimed to have) which shows clearly he was taking money to injure players."

Judge: "May I see them?"

Goodell: "Okay, but I may not have all 50,000 documents available. And the ones that I may have may not clearly demonstrate the intent Vilma had when he was carrying out those hits."

Judge:

Judge: "Vilma, you may go bang his wife providing she is hot as balls. You will also have your 500-word essay, double spaced. I don't know about the money, however, since I think you wrote down the amount from a typical US budget. This court is adjourned."

Bayliff: "All rise!"
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Old 2012-09-10, 03:52   Link #5193
Samari
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Originally Posted by FDW View Post
Well, I think otherwise, since he no longer has to be the entire offense. And he'd hardly be an outlier in playing until the age of 35, I mean John Riggins, Marcus Allen, Ricky Williams and Emmitt Smith all managed to play until that age at the RB position.
Right, that's four players out of how many runningbacks that have passed through the NFL? Just because it's possible doesn't mean it's likely.
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Old 2012-09-10, 08:58   Link #5194
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Right, that's four players out of how many runningbacks that have passed through the NFL? Just because it's possible doesn't mean it's likely.
Those were just first four that I found, I'm sure I could find some more, and then some if I count people who retired at 34.
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Old 2012-09-10, 13:17   Link #5195
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Can't wait for tonight (technically tomorrow morning). The Bengals always give the Ravens a tough game, but with injuries in their secondary and Dalton's lack of weapons outside Green, I'm expecting a W.

On another note, Julio Jones is a man.
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Old 2012-09-10, 14:19   Link #5196
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Can't wait for tonight (technically tomorrow morning). The Bengals always give the Ravens a tough game, but with injuries in their secondary and Dalton's lack of weapons outside Green, I'm expecting a W.
Bengals used to give the Ravens a tough time because Carson Palmer could read us like a book. Just like Peyton Manning. Palmer isn't there anymore. Dalton gave us a close game, but he was also an unknown at the time. He's no longer unknown, so I expect that to sort of equal out to the injuries advantage they otherwise would've gotten. Hopefully the Ravens can keep up the strong offense they showed in the pre-season.
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Old 2012-09-10, 15:44   Link #5197
Samari
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Those were just first four that I found, I'm sure I could find some more, and then some if I count people who retired at 34.
Even if you found more, it was still be insignificant compared to the numbers against it.

I won't say it isn't possible, I'll just say it's extremely unlikely. Injuries may catch up to Gore at that time or the 49ers may decide not to renew his contract once it's up.
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Old 2012-09-10, 18:02   Link #5198
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Even if you found more, it was still be insignificant compared to the numbers against it.

I won't say it isn't possible, I'll just say it's extremely unlikely. Injuries may catch up to Gore at that time or the 49ers may decide not to renew his contract once it's up.
I wouldn't say it's extremely unlikely, I would say plausible (But below a 50% chance of occurring), depending on health and contract issues. I did mention that I see Frank Gore ceding the No.1 Rusher slot to Kendall Hunter sometime in the next few seasons.

And I'm getting ready to watch The Raiders game tonight, gonna put some Korean BBQ on the grill.
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Old 2012-09-10, 21:29   Link #5199
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First 6 players - 62 points

Torrey Smith - 7 points
Justin Tucker - 16 points
Baltimore DST - 16 points
Anquan Boldin (on bench) - 12 points

I'm proud of my Baltimore bias haha.
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Old 2012-09-10, 21:56   Link #5200
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Raiders having a good start.
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Last edited by FDW; 2012-09-11 at 00:31.
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