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Old 2012-10-11, 18:11   Link #1
AnimeFan188
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Where the Middle-East is headed.

"The short-run problems of the Middle East appear intractable because they are
irruptions of long-term problems, in a self-aggravating regional disturbance. It's
like August 1914, but without the same civilizational implications:"

"Egypt cannot achieve stability under a democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood
regime any more than it could under military dictatorship, because 60 years of
sham modernization atop a pre-modern substratum have destroyed the country's
capacity to function.

Turkey cannot solve its Kurdish problem today because the Kurds know that time
is on their side: with a fertility three times that of ethnic Turks, Anatolian Kurds
will comprise half the country's military-age population a generation from now.

Syria cannot solve its ethnic and religious civil conflicts because the only
mechanism capable of suppressing them - a dictatorship by a religious minority -
exhausted its capacity to do so.

Iraq's Shi'ite majority cannot govern in the face of Sunni opposition without
leaning on Iran, leaving Iran with the option to destabilize and perhaps,
eventually, to dismember the country.

And Iran cannot abandon or even postpone its nuclear ambitions, because the
collapse of its currency on the black market during the past two weeks reminds its
leaders that a rapidly-aging population and fast-depleting oil reserves will lead to
an economic breakdown of a scale that no major country has suffered in the
modern era."

See:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NJ10Ak02.html


It all reminds me of this quote from Syriana:

"You know what the business community thinks of you? They think that a hundred
years ago you were living in tents out here in the desert chopping each other's
heads off and that's where you'll be in another hundred years,"


Where is the Middle-East headed in the years to come?
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Old 2012-10-11, 18:21   Link #2
Urzu 7
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I'm concerned about humanity and the world. I ask the question "Where is the world heading in the years to come?".

As an American, I also think "Where is the USA heading in the years to come?".
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Old 2012-10-11, 18:44   Link #3
james0246
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnimeFan188 View Post
Where is the Middle-East headed in the years to come?
I'm an optomist at heart, and I believe (or at least hope) that the Middle East will be entering a contextual period of Enlightenment (similar to Europe post Renassiance). I do not know what this period will look like, but I do believe that the minority fanaticism will be weakened considerably in the next 30 years, especially as global communication improves.

That being said, lets keep the discussion focused on the OP, and remember to always be considerate of others in this discussion. Otherwise, expect the eventual warning, infraction or potential ban .
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Old 2012-10-11, 18:54   Link #4
Urzu 7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james0246 View Post
I'm an optomist at heart, and I believe (or at least hope) that the Middle East will be entering a contextual period of Enlightenment (similar to Europe post Renassiance). I do not know what this period will look like, but I do believe that the minority fanaticism will be weakened considerably in the next 30 years, especially as global communication improves.
I, myself, am an optimist. Even still, I have concerns about my nation and the world.

I hope what you speculate will happen for the Middle-East. That relatively soon it'll enter a sort of age of enlightenment. If I live to be an elderly man, I hope to see the world be better then than it is now, and I hope to see the Middle-East become better by then, too.
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Old 2012-10-12, 01:20   Link #5
aohige
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james0246 View Post
I do not know what this period will look like, but I do believe that the minority fanaticism will be weakened considerably in the next 30 years, especially as global communication improves.
I've said this for years as well.
The globalization of communication has been the biggest advancement of mankind in the past century, even more so than discovery of nuclear energy, and it's the key in lowring the barriers between individuals.
The tyrants will try as they may, but the sheer fact is, people will inevidably feel attached to other individuals they can exchange with, instead of a dusty, old teachings of authoritarian values.

There will be resistences met, and it'll take time.
But I doubt it'll take centuries as some cynics predict, looking at how much changed in Asia and the West in the mere past fifty years.
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Old 2012-10-12, 02:00   Link #6
risingstar3110
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We can answer that by asking the opposite question, what Middle East is not heading toward?

A strong united Islamic block with greater influences toward the rest of the world
  • As unless Israel start to bend down, Israel will surely face the Islam wrath for what they are doing right now by that time (sorry Israel, but you have a really bad record so far in this 20th century with the Muslims). So Western nations won't allow that to happen; and any power the Middle East Islam possess, will have to be containable by a superior Israel or US forces.
Middle East Total War
  • Very less likely as the most rich and powerful countries there (except Israel and Iran) are doing very well without conflicts (UAE and Saudi). And they are also big lenders to US and Europe (as i remember). So unless some major crisis happens, they won't enter the tray, means a skirmish or one-side total military dominance is worst case scenario
Christianity
  • ...


So to sum up, they will always be mostly Muslims, there will always be conflicts (military or not) between each countries but no major scaled war. And oil nations will always be filthy rich
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Old 2012-10-12, 02:07   Link #7
aohige
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Originally Posted by risingstar3110 View Post
And oil nations will always be filthy rich
Because oil is such an infinite resource.
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Old 2012-10-12, 02:10   Link #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aohige View Post
Because oil is such an infinite resource.
No its not...
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Old 2012-10-12, 02:29   Link #9
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You may wanna have that sarcasm detector checked up.
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Old 2012-10-12, 02:37   Link #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aohige View Post
You may wanna have that sarcasm detector checked up.
Oh, sorry.. I'm not used to it...

Anyway... As long as people in the Middle East continues to misinterprets the Book and goes on with their modern barbaric ways.. There is no good future there without blood shed
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Old 2012-10-12, 06:22   Link #11
risingstar3110
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Originally Posted by aohige View Post
Because oil is such an infinite resource.
It's not like they are living on oil only, you know....

UAE, Saudi Arab, Qatar have been major destination of FDI investments within these last few decades. True that when it counts by total accumulated FDI, US, France, UK and Germany (in order) is still the top destination with Hongkong, Belgium, Spain to follow . However if you count per capital, it will be something like this:

US: $7,900
Saudi: $7,300
UAE: $9,600
Qatar: $14,400
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Old 2012-10-12, 06:50   Link #12
Shay
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For starters we need to win the war on terror. Easier said than done, I know. But they need to realise that fanatics who do things like shoot 14 year old girls in the head for speaking out against their barbaric beliefs must be stopped. And we, the west need to help them to do that.

Again, easier said that than done; but while these certain organisations still hold weight in any way shape or form, there is no hope.
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Old 2012-10-12, 07:36   Link #13
DonQuigleone
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Here's what I don't get, why does the Middle East get this outsized amount of attention(particularly in the USA)? Why don't we pay more attention to South East Asia? Mexico and Central America (a lot closer to home that...)? South America? Sub Saharan Africa? All of these regions have social and political problems as bad as the Middle East.
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Old 2012-10-12, 10:50   Link #14
LeoXiao
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Because there are terrorists in the Middle East that are hellbent on attacking us. Obviously.
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Old 2012-10-12, 10:57   Link #15
aohige
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Quote:
Originally Posted by risingstar3110 View Post
It's not like they are living on oil only, you know....

UAE, Saudi Arab, Qatar have been major destination of FDI investments within these last few decades. True that when it counts by total accumulated FDI, US, France, UK and Germany (in order) is still the top destination with Hongkong, Belgium, Spain to follow . However if you count per capital, it will be something like this:

US: $7,900
Saudi: $7,300
UAE: $9,600
Qatar: $14,400
Eh, but those FDI are fueled by (pun intended) oil interest.
They aren't investing into the country for no reason.
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Old 2012-10-12, 13:17   Link #16
RRW
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Originally Posted by aohige View Post
Because oil is such an infinite resource.
sure but it will takes ages. and by the time it finish. pretty sure they have enough money to start new business investment
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Old 2012-10-12, 13:23   Link #17
DonQuigleone
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Originally Posted by LeoXiao View Post
Because there are terrorists in the Middle East that are hellbent on attacking us. Obviously.
What about the drug lords in Mexico hellbent on profiting from...

Ah, of course, Capitalism is A-OK!
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Old 2012-10-12, 14:29   Link #18
Ithekro
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War on Drugs....still going. Difference is the amount of explosives used to kill people.
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Old 2012-10-12, 14:53   Link #19
Kyuu
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Through my church's ESL program, I managed to come across a middle aged man from Egypt. And he pretty much talked about the ground level problems over there.

And I can sum it up in this manner:
The Middle East is full of highly educated and skilled people -- with no work. The Arab Spring was a clear rebellion against the leadership, who did not provide the political environment helpful in the creation of jobs.
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Old 2012-10-12, 15:44   Link #20
LeoXiao
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DonQuigleone View Post
What about the drug lords in Mexico hellbent on profiting from...

Ah, of course, Capitalism is A-OK!
Everyone knows that the drug lords are also terrorists, they are brown and speak a funny language that I don't know. But the real problems are in the Middle East, where our boys are protecting America in Afghanistan as we speak.
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