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Old 2012-10-20, 09:29   Link #24281
SeijiSensei
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sugetsu View Post
My theory is that these guys are incredibly well organized, so much so that they have decided not to touch the mountain of cash they are setting on because they don't want the Obama administration to look good. They know that under a deregulatory environment they stand to make a killing, thus a GOP candidate is just what they are looking for.

Am I too paranoid now to believe such a thing could be happening?
I've held the same view, that the sluggish recovery under Obama reflects in part a "capital strike" in hopes of driving the President from office. Romney's remarks in Boca Raton tend to support this view, though I'd agree one could construct a more sanguine view of his comments.



The elite of American capitalism are quite tightly interconnected though schooling, social ties, interlocking board memberships, and the like. I doubt that top CEOs all sat down together one evening and decided not to make any investments while Obama holds office, but certainly the notion could spread though casual interactions at board meetings, on the golf course, or in a social club. One does not have to be as radical as C. Wright Mills or William Domhoff to see how these institutions have developed over time. Look at the people sitting in that room together in Boca Raton. They have attended these sorts of events with people like them all their lives.
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Old 2012-10-20, 12:02   Link #24282
willx
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^ As someone that works in finance, I think your comments above are a huge stretch. Even in Canada, there is generally a notion that out right-wing parties are typically more fiscally responsible than the left-wing parties and also better for business. Markets tend to go up. He's sitting there talking to a number of financially sophisticated people -- and it's all very likely the truth.

That said, capital flight, isn't an entire misnomer but is applicable in certain situations. Eduardo Savarin for example has his billions and sits in Singapore. Gates, Buffet, Zuckerburg and the rest are happy staying in the U.S. despite the tax regime. There's always much less of a conspiracy than people otherwise think -- cause y'know what? People are selfish.. and distrustful.. and self-involved..
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Old 2012-10-20, 12:31   Link #24283
Vexx
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Originally Posted by willx View Post
^ As someone that works in finance, I think your comments above are a huge stretch. Even in Canada, there is generally a notion that out right-wing parties are typically more fiscally responsible than the left-wing parties and also better for business. Markets tend to go up. He's sitting there talking to a number of financially sophisticated people -- and it's all very likely the truth.

That said, capital flight, isn't an entire misnomer but is applicable in certain situations. Eduardo Savarin for example has his billions and sits in Singapore. Gates, Buffet, Zuckerburg and the rest are happy staying in the U.S. despite the tax regime. There's always much less of a conspiracy than people otherwise think -- cause y'know what? People are selfish.. and distrustful.. and self-involved..
1) There's such a thing as social trends and viral memes. There doesn't have to be active collusion.
2) We have two kinds of ultra-wealthy: ones that remember the peasants have guillotines and ones that don't The former knows that healthy productive peasants are less likely to be a problem than angry peasants with lots of time on their hands and nothing to lose.
2) The "right wing does finance better" flag has been burned to ashes in the US (whether or not the flag wavers know it). They've totally trashed any right to claim such over the last 25 years. Fiscal responsibility is no longer a GOP tag.
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Old 2012-10-20, 13:15   Link #24284
willx
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Originally Posted by Vexx View Post
1) There's such a thing as social trends and viral memes. There doesn't have to be active collusion.
2) We have two kinds of ultra-wealthy: ones that remember the peasants have guillotines and ones that don't The former knows that healthy productive peasants are less likely to be a problem than angry peasants with lots of time on their hands and nothing to lose.
2) The "right wing does finance better" flag has been burned to ashes in the US (whether or not the flag wavers know it). They've totally trashed any right to claim such over the last 25 years. Fiscal responsibility is no longer a GOP tag.
1) Agree. I'm just parroting the whole "There is no conspiracy. The universe is indifferent." statement cause people seem to forget it.
2a) Agree & Disagree. Capital flight is actually a real problem, HK saw it back prior to 1997 due to China about to take over. That said, I tie this back to the whole healthcare & doctor salaries debate -- after a certain point there isn't much wage elasticity and people would be OK making less to live in the U.S. and Canada (vs. Singapore, Asia, etc.)
2b) I'm not saying it's true or not. I'm just saying that's the way people see it. Heck, there was the article written in Slate talking about the "dems" being the "austerity party" = http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/...eduction_.html

Keep in mind though that these views are due to decades upon decades of ingrained political conditioning. That said, I hate it when people mention Clinton as being the whole fiscally responsible president. People need to learn to remember the bubble was inflated in the years prior to and during the Clinton administration. No one is innocent. I spare no one. I spear everyone.
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Old 2012-10-20, 22:56   Link #24285
ganbaru
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Analysis: Mortgage demand too much for banks, who respond slowly
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...89I1EU20121019

Edit: U.S. Officials Say Iran Has Agreed to Nuclear Talks
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/21/wo...r-program.html
After the election of course...
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Old 2012-10-21, 09:08   Link #24286
SeijiSensei
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Originally Posted by willx View Post
^ As someone that works in finance, I think your comments above are a huge stretch. Even in Canada, there is generally a notion that out right-wing parties are typically more fiscally responsible than the left-wing parties and also better for business. Markets tend to go up. He's sitting there talking to a number of financially sophisticated people -- and it's all very likely the truth.
First, I don't think Canadian culture has the same degree of support for cutthroat capitalist practices as we do here in the US. Second, the notion that right-wing parties are more fiscally responsible is certainly a myth when it comes to the United States since Reagan. I think you'd also have a difficult time showing a relationship between the Republican administrations and performance of the stock markets. If anything the evidence shows that the markets might have done better during Democratic administrations, but in general the effects of party on the performance of the stock market is a wash. One would imagine that these supposedly "financially sophisticated people" would know these things as well.

In addtiion, I'm not really talking about financial institutions here, but the real economy instead. Corporations are hoarding large amounts of cash and not re-investing in their firms. One obvious reason for lack of investment is weak demand, to be sure, and there could be some of the famous "uncertainty" about regulations that Republicans like to point to as an explanation. But neither of those really seem sufficient explanations to me. Most industries have more or less the same set of regulations today as they did in 2008 regardless of Republican propaganda to the contrary. Most of the provisions of "Obamacare" will not even take effect until 2014 so they really have had little effect on investment decisions over the past three years. Dodd-Frank may have some (unfortunately too little, in my mind) sway over financial institutions, but most economic actors are unaffected by its provisions. I can understand why the Republican small business owner in Idaho I heard on NPR this morning might parrot back propaganda on regulation, but not the people sitting in the room in Boca Raton. They should know well how to manipulate the regulatory apparatus to get the results they prefer. They have been doing it for years.

It sounds to me like you are suffering from some of that "ingrained political conditioning" yourself.
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Old 2012-10-21, 09:20   Link #24287
willx
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Originally Posted by SeijiSensei View Post
It sounds to me like you are suffering from some of that "ingrained political conditioning" yourself.
Maybe! One can never be too sure. You too, right, although in your case, a contra-reaction to the conditioning. Distrust, right?

All I can say about "uncertainty" is I have been on private conference calls with CFOs and CEOs of multimillion and multibillion dollar corporations talking about expansion strategies and investing and that they re very concerned about the future. They seem awfully concerned about the "uncertainty" of the economy and the government. I've also met with lending relationship managers and they speak of how the current economic environment is unprecedented in thei lifetimes, "Too much funny money around.." is a direct quote. They're only 40-50 though, so maybe they're biased as well.

All I can assure you is I base my opinions on the fact patterns I see while remaining skeptical and changing my opinions when the facts change.

PS: Refer to my response to Vexx, I don't necessarily believe the GOP is better for the economy, I'm just saying lots of people still do. Including my boss and other senior business leaders that I've personally met.

Last edited by willx; 2012-10-21 at 10:15. Reason: Typos on ipad
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Old 2012-10-21, 10:11   Link #24288
SeijiSensei
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I do not disagree with the perception that economic uncertainty is high right now, but I do not see much evidence that it has to do with which American party controls the White House. Europe is a mess; demand in Asia, especially from China, is slowing; and the US economy has not expanded fast enough since the Recession to pick up the slack. "Too much funny money" around is probably a criticism of the Fed's "quantitative easing" policies, and maybe the actions of the European and Chinese banking systems as well. I'd be curious whether this person had the same opinion in 2007 when enormous sums were invested in over-valued real-estate derivatives. Lots of "funny money" around then, too.

So I just do not see much justification for the claim that if we only were to elect Mitt Romney the economic ship would be righted once again. Uncertainty is a fundamental aspect of the modern world and an obvious consequence of globalization. Romney as President can do little to affect Eurozone finances, Chinese growth paths, or other large sources of uncertainty. I can think of one major source of uncertainty, a war with Iran, that would be worsened under a Romney Administration staffed with people like John Bolton.

One type of uncertainty that will be reduced in a Romney Administration is whether the rich will continue to prosper. Romney's proposals will further redistribute income to the wealthy, a policy begun under Reagan, accommodated by Clinton, and massively accelerated under G.W. Bush. The guys (and I'm guessing they are still mostly guys) on those conference calls would certainly prefer to see that type of "uncertainty" reduced.

I cannot support Romney or most any current Republican because they espouse disgustingly right-wing social agendas. But even without that motivation, I cannot support the Republicans because they advocate policies that will only exacerbate our already astounding trends in income inequality. An Obama Administration may not be able to reverse these trends substantially, but it will not make them worse the way a Romney Administration will.

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Old 2012-10-21, 15:37   Link #24289
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Mass shooting reported in Wisconsin: 7 hospitalized, suspect remains at large, police

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A shooting at a spa near a mall in Brookfield, Wis., on Sunday left at least seven people hospitalized, according to local news reports, and police are searching for the suspected gunman.
Police identified the suspected shooter as 45-year-old Radcliffe Haughton, of Brown Deer, Wis. Haughton is 6-foot-2, weighs approximately 210 pounds and was last seen wearing a camouflage jacket, grey sweater, blue jeans and carrying a white and black backpack, police said. He was reportedly driving a black 2003 Mazda Protégé.
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/...180854621.html
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Old 2012-10-21, 17:06   Link #24290
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What charges did the witnesses face that did not immediately report the crime, but some even had the audacity to video-tape it
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Old 2012-10-21, 18:39   Link #24291
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I am surprised that nobody has a concealed carry license at that moment.
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Old 2012-10-21, 22:04   Link #24292
ganbaru
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Update on the shooting: Gunman kills three and himself at Wisconsin salon
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...89K0F620121022
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Old 2012-10-21, 23:07   Link #24293
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What charges did the witnesses face that did not immediately report the crime, but some even had the audacity to video-tape it
They are sentence to live in Richmond, can't really sentence them to much more then that.
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Old 2012-10-22, 08:19   Link #24294
ganbaru
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Somali piracy at three-year low after security thwarts gangs
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...89L0NZ20121022
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Old 2012-10-22, 14:49   Link #24295
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German Court Demands Bundesbank Audit Sovereign Gold Holdings

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The German court of auditors (Bundesrechnungshof) has demanded that the Bundesbank undertake an audit of its gold reserves. In an 'audit-the-fed' style effort, the court wants to ensure that the nearly 3400 tons of gold is in fact in existence - 'because stocks have never been checked for authenticity and weight'. Furthermore, the Bundesbank's gold is stored in three other vaults around the world: The Bank of England, The Bank of France, and the US Federal Reserve. The court questions the practice of relying on a written confirmation from the custodians (foreign central banks). The decision means negotiating with the three foreign central banks for physical verification but in anticipation, the Bundesbank has begun the process of shipping 50 tons per year from the Fed back to Germany for the next three years.
I hope the gold really does exist...
Didn't know if I should put it here on the the Silly/Odd News thread. It's as serious and sad as it is funny.
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Old 2012-10-22, 14:58   Link #24296
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Somali piracy at three-year low after security thwarts gangs
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...89L0NZ20121022
Some good news indeed. It's about time results are obtained in that international cooperation process against those pirates.
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Old 2012-10-22, 16:26   Link #24297
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In late September, just before the anniversary, the village’s new officials put up posters accusing “a few individuals with ulterior motives” of trying to foment “civil strife” in Wukan. One village leader, Hong Ruichao, says some of the protesters last month had common interests with the old administration. In their desperation for calm, the former rebels have adopted the conspiratorial language of those against whom they once struggled.

http://www.economist.com/news/china/...acks-democracy
i said it last year that the worst punishment the government could have handed out to the rebels was making them the new village leader.
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Old 2012-10-22, 19:07   Link #24298
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Old 2012-10-23, 02:40   Link #24299
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Somehow the Gangnam craze stops, in all places... Japan:
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Old 2012-10-23, 03:38   Link #24300
ganbaru
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U.S. probes deaths for links to Monster energy drink
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...89L16G20121022

Insight: In vulnerable Greece, mosquitoes bite back
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...89L0PM20121022
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