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Old 2012-11-01, 15:07   Link #31061
Kiltias
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Well there is alot that can be interpreted from the Tale.

Gretel turned into a servant of the witch while Hänsel was trapped into a cage by her as the witch was cannibalistic.(Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Beatrice force Rosa to eat the remains of her family?)

Hänsel and Gretel after killing the witch came across a large area of water, unable to cross it until a white duck came along and carried them over.
Another version mentions how it was a white bird that showed them the way home, the same bird that brought them to the witch, while the other birds were eating away the crumbs spread by them to find their way home.
What if those birds refer to the family as in look the emblem.

There is also the mention that the witch had quite the treasures in her house.

"Kinzo told me there are wolves in the forest."
Wilhelm Grimm mentioned in 1856 that there is also a Wolf with the Witch.

The father of the 2 also faked the sound of the knocks he makes when cutting down a tree by binding an branch to a tree in combination with the wind.

Wilhelm also mentioned that the Witch was rather sharp as she was like a Animal in noticing people getting close.

Hans Jörg Uther mentions how the story is a polarization between good and evil supported by opposites.
Parental and Witchhouse.
Mother and Witch.
Seperation and Reunion.
He also mentioned how the children ascend from the dead that was supposed to be their fate but that fate was cast upon the mother/witch.

Quote:
Again though, you run into problems both of motive and MO. Why was Kyrie doing it? And if she was, why did she use the methods she did (methods which appear to be at odds with the LOL SHOOTING SPREE theory presented in ep7)?

What did she and Rudolf know about the explosion, if anything?

If they didn't know, how did they expect to get away with it? When did this plan come up? Was it before they knew about the witch's game or was it made up on the spot once that factor came into play? What would they have done if it hadn't? Could Kyrie have had any sort of forewarning (the letter from Battler?)?

As always, motive creates the biggest problem. The only beef we know about is her hatred for Asumu, who (1) isn't an Ushiromiya by birth and wasn't when she wronged Kyrie and (2) is long dead. It'd be hard to generalize her desire to kill Asumu to a desire to kill just anyone, especially since Kyrie was almost maddeningly specific in hating Asumu in particular.
I seem to remember Kyrie or Rudolf mentioning in EP 7 how the Gold will be theirs.It was after killing Gohda.
Same applies for the tale as money is the reason why they abandonded the kids.

Rest of course is hard to explain, though ever since seeing the tale I'm just saying that Kyrie might be the mastermind.
I point again to her Chessboard logic and the roles of Bishops.
They are called Bishops because during Medieval times they were highly manipulative,setting the norms and laws with their movement pattern symbolizing their snake like movements and actions in addition that Bishops are aka called Hunters.

I'm saying, Kyrie plays a major role somehow having manipulated alot of events and might be THE direct opposer to Yasu in terms of killing.
Yasu started the Witch Game, Kyrie intended to use it for her own advantage.Rudolf being a pawn for her.
Hence how he suspected his death in EP 1.
They DID knew something.

I'm going with:
Kyrie is the true mastermind having manipulated the events or simply used the Witch Game for herself.

Last edited by Kiltias; 2012-11-01 at 15:31.
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Old 2012-11-01, 15:47   Link #31062
Kealym
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
I enjoy it that way. It's basically saying that there's no proof that they were good people, there's still some evidence for it.

The whole point is, again, it's a cat box. The goats were trying to eliminate the concepts of the "good versions" of the people in the box using evidence from outside of the box, but those "good version" concepts were still pretty tenacious. They were difficult to completely destroy because there was still some out-of-the-box evidence here and there testifying to their "goodness".

That was my take on it, anyway.
Mmm, yes, I feel mostly the same, especially since the description of how their guns worked in that final battle seemed to be like, say, "Hey, I was TOTALLY capable of murder! *bam* What, you say I killed my daughter? I loved my daughter, though, just ask the other PTA soccer moms!".

I guess I meant moreso their kind of ... cheerful indifference towards the fact they were exploded to death.

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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Again, how would this not set off red flags for the police? As far as they know, there may have been an uneducated, undocumented, mistreated slave boy on the island whose very existence has been wiped out by the explosion. Or else the message bottles are inserting a person who doesn't exist.
Sudden flashback to the scene in EP2 where Natsuhi told Shannon she couldn't eat until she'd cleaned ALL the things.

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Originally Posted by Kiltias View Post
By the way, what's the deal of Ryukishi implying the use of the fairy tale of Hänsel and Gretel in the story?


EG:
Their father was in second marriage with a wife who was a schemer and versions exist where she is
1 - Just their stepmother
2 - Their biological mother

Ange = Gretel

She tried to get rid of the kids so that she and her husband have the money the have for themselves and is implied to be the Witch in the Story as when the Witch died so did their mother.
Ange is Gretel, the sister who saved her brother from the witch's imprisonment

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Originally Posted by theacefrehley View Post
It is said they were dead when they were found. Check EP4 Tea Party.
Yup.
The six people were already dead by the time they were discovered!
All were killed by other people!
All six were genuine victims, and did not take part in a mutual murder!
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Old 2012-11-01, 21:28   Link #31063
Kiltias
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Originally Posted by Kealym View Post


Ange is Gretel, the sister who saved her brother from the witch's imprisonment
Totally ignoring the part that the Witch in the tale is implied as their mother and when the witch died so she?
Seeing that the mother of Hänsel and Gretel is named as their biological but in other version their stepmother, and being displayed as a schemer that is badly out for money to the point of sacrificing the kids is more than enough reason to look into.
Especially when we have several indications of Kyrie being deep in this, question is just how much.
Though I'm not gonna argue about Kyrie being the sole person part for Battler and Maria wearing a Cross making them White,Black and Red which are just by chance the actual colours of Chess Pieces.
Then again it might indicate Kyrie is deeply religious as it also looks a tad like the Christian Flag in addition that her name also refers to God/Lord.

Quote:
The six people were already dead by the time they were discovered!
All were killed by other people!
All six were genuine victims, and did not take part in a mutual murder!
Scuse me, this is probably cause English isn't my mother language but does the second red mean each one of them was killed by someone else than the other?

Last edited by Kiltias; 2012-11-01 at 21:55.
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Old 2012-11-01, 21:33   Link #31064
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Whenever a red like that comes out it usually means that the deaths were homicides and not accidents or suicide.
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Old 2012-11-01, 21:58   Link #31065
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Meh.Perhaps that could have been worded better, looks kinda weird to me.Anyway, thank you.
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Old 2012-11-02, 07:52   Link #31066
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Still I wanted to say this : what kind of motives are you looking for? "Parasites made them do it", "they had a really horrible life", "they're nuts and or/melodramatic" or "they are total jerks".

I'm honestly asking, what kind of motive would be satisfying to you all, because I personally cannot see any really satisfying motive within the realm of mystery.
I don't mean acceptable, I mean something that would satisfy most fans and Will's "heart" thing.
In my view, the only motive that can possibly be used to make the murderer look even slightly sympathetic would be that they genuinely believe that carrying out the ceremony and making everyone believe in the witch WILL lead to everyone being revived in the Golden Land.

I think people would like Yasutrice a lot more if the motive was presented as something like this (as EP4 seemed to be leading to), rather than focusing on her conflicting love for three different people which is really not a motive for mass murder by any stretch of the imagination.
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Old 2012-11-02, 08:15   Link #31067
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The only plausible murder motive in the entire series is Kyrie's motive to kill Asumu, especially if you read between the lines a little bit. Even then, that's so unfathomably specific that it isn't generalizable as a culprit theory; Kyrie's motive is so plausible only because we actually know exactly who she wants to kill and why. If you remove the cause or the victim, there's no more motive.
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Old 2012-11-02, 08:19   Link #31068
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Originally Posted by Kealym View Post

Yup.
The six people were already dead by the time they were discovered!
All were killed by other people!
All six were genuine victims, and did not take part in a mutual murder!
Ah, that's right. I forgot about EP4... yikes...

Honestly, I was just being kind of silly, and quite aware that the Kyrie Motive as presented in EP7 and EP8 was quite weak. Still, it would be interesting to find that there is some sort of loophole in the red that makes it possible for Kyrie to have committed the crimes, considering Bern used it twice against Ange, there must have been *something* to it, other than "Ange is alive and is now the heir to all the Ushiromiya's money."
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Old 2012-11-02, 09:05   Link #31069
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The only plausible murder motive in the entire series is Kyrie's motive to kill Asumu, especially if you read between the lines a little bit. Even then, that's so unfathomably specific that it isn't generalizable as a culprit theory; Kyrie's motive is so plausible only because we actually know exactly who she wants to kill and why. If you remove the cause or the victim, there's no more motive.
Technically, there's also Natsuhi's motive for attempting to murder the baby that's decent enough.

Anyway I think the real problem in Umineko is the huge number of victims with an also high different number of relations with each others who apparently were all supposed to be murdered in the same location and at around the same period, with the culprit having a method to kill them all at the same moment but likely chosing to off them one after the other.

For example, let's assume that things started to go as in EP 7 teaparty and Kyrie wanted all the money for herself. Natsuhi and Krauss died due to an incident, Kyrie then offed Rosa, Hideyoshi and Eva.

First of all she should check if they're really dead and then...

Is there any need to go and kill everyone else personally when you can just use the bomb?
They could say they're in reunion with grandfather, check if there's really a way to Kuwadorian and to another boat, maybe even wait for the telephone line to resume working so they can check if Yasu's credit card really work and when they have checked everything they can turn on the bomb and leave the island.

You don't even have to find an excuse to persuade Battler as they would leave AS PLANNED and after amking sure everything is as they say.

Even better, they check everything before killing Rosa, Eva and Hideyoshi so if Yasu lied they won't be in a mess for no reason at all.

That's the sort of plan I would expect from Assassin-Kyrie, not just a 'let's murder everyone without even knowing if we're being tricked' party.
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Old 2012-11-02, 10:34   Link #31070
Kiltias
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The only plausible murder motive in the entire series is Kyrie's motive to kill Asumu, especially if you read between the lines a little bit. Even then, that's so unfathomably specific that it isn't generalizable as a culprit theory; Kyrie's motive is so plausible only because we actually know exactly who she wants to kill and why. If you remove the cause or the victim, there's no more motive.
There might be another person she could hate, that being Battler.
"Then Asumu-san gave birth to Battler-kun......But I had a miscarriage.
There's something I thought about.What if Asumu-san had been the one to have a miscarriage, and I had been the one to give birth?
Would Rudolf-san have broken off his engagement and married me?
But I couldn't give birth to a child.
So until Asumu, died and until I gave birth to Ange, I cursed Asumu-san and envied her.
Asumu-san should just die.And then I want him to re-marry with me.
In my envy, I kept cursing like that, over and over, until Asumu-san actually died.

I was certain.I was certain that I possessed the power of magic, which had become a curse and killed Asumu-san.

But that did not quell the flames of my envy.Don't tell anyone, allright?Everytime I look at Battler-kun, I remember that woman.And everytime I look at Battler-kun, I think that if my child had been born, he would be the same age.I am still jealous of her, tormented by her.

How could you understand the madness of a woman whose man was stolen from her, and who has burned with envy for 18 years...!!!


Everytime she sees Battler she sees the child of Asumu, the reason her Envy and Madness will never quell, so one way to stop the torment of Asumu even after her death would be to kill him.
Though, she had no chance of doing that, seeing that when Asumu died and herself having married Rudolf, Battler cut his ties to the Family until the year the incidents began.

Or more:
See that Kyrie can mean Holy Lord/God.
7 Sins :
Lust - One would think Sexual Lust but it actually refers to intense desire of something.
Gluttony - Isn't about eating but it actually refers to selfishness.
Greed - Applied to very excessive desire of materialistic posessions but also involves to Betrayal or treason.
Sloth - Isn't about physical laziness but spiritual laziness.Failing to do what one should do.Evil exists because good people fail to act.
Wrath - Of course this involves Madness though its stated that Wrath can lead to Impatience,Revenge,Vigilantism and is often associated with Jealousy.
Envy - While it may seem like it, its not the same as Jealousy.
The envious desire an entity and covet it.
Envy is a desire to deprive others of something you don't have.
Pride - Love for ones self but contempt towards someone else.
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Old 2012-11-02, 10:36   Link #31071
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Even so, how does a desire to murder Battler spiral out of control like that? Especially since Battler lives, which means that Kyrie must've been really bad at murdering him.

...Actually this is kind of an amazing forgery concept. Kyrie keeps trying to murder Battler and accidentally kills someone else instead and has to cover it up.
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Old 2012-11-02, 11:56   Link #31072
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Even so, how does a desire to murder Battler spiral out of control like that? Especially since Battler lives, which means that Kyrie must've been really bad at murdering him.

...Actually this is kind of an amazing forgery concept. Kyrie keeps trying to murder Battler and accidentally kills someone else instead and has to cover it up.
lol it would be a fun idea!

What if she realized that killing Battler might cause her to lose Rudolf's love?
However making Battler, who loves mystery and that had been holding a grudge against the Ushiromiya the culprit?
He would end in jail and stay away from her family and they would inherit the Ushiromiya money.
Sure, Battler had stopped holding a grudge against the Ushiromiya long ago but how to prove it to the police?

In short she wanted to create an EP 5 situation with Battler in place of Natsuhi... possibly without killing everyone but then things spiralled out of control and...

It could explain Battler/Toya's fear of being the culprit even if he wasn't, why the whole things had to be hidden to Ange, why Kyrie's feelings came to light in the stories (Toya wasn't supposed to know unless he heard it from her) and even Battler's trauma connected to his mother's identity.
Oh and interesting enough in this version Kyrie would have Erika's role... and Erika was dumped by the boy she loved for another woman...
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Old 2012-11-02, 12:48   Link #31073
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Could also make some hay of Yasu's martyr complex as Beatrice: Her love for Battler spurs her to protect him as a counter-agent to Kyrie, to the point that she'd be willing to shoulder the blame for it too in order to protect him from any possible notion of involvement.

I'm not sure there's enough evidence, though... although Kyrie does say some pretty mysterious things in just about every episode.
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Old 2012-11-02, 16:57   Link #31074
Kealym
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Still I wanted to say this : what kind of motives are you looking for? "Parasites made them do it", "they had a really horrible life", "they're nuts and or/melodramatic" or "they are total jerks".

I'm honestly asking, what kind of motive would be satisfying to you all, because I personally cannot see any really satisfying motive within the realm of mystery.
I don't mean acceptable, I mean something that would satisfy most fans and Will's "heart" thing.
I would accept a motive that makes sense, and is fully supported by previous characterization, clues in the text, and just, the plot itself. I think Will's "heart" thing was directed at mysteries where the puzzle element of a mystery is given more consideration than the human element of it.

I don't think, at all, that the stuff about "heart" means "the culprit must be sympathetic", just ... understandable? I would readily accept "greed" or "revenge" or "crazy love" as motives if they made sense and were supported by the text. There's nothing wrong with, say, greed as a motive ... but you really need to present a situation where killing 17 people in the face can accomplish that. The problem with Yasutrice (even considering just the gameboards) is all you can really make of it is
1. Murder
2. ???
3. PROFIT / MAGIC !

For the same reason, I consider Erika's "motive" for Natsuhi-culprit in EP5 especially worthless and trashy, on almost every talking point. To name something at random, the implication that Natsuhi was sexing up Kinzo was based on NOTHING AT ALL outside of Bern trolling with contrapositives, and Lambda being too amused to call her out on it, or whatever.

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Totally ignoring the part that the Witch in the tale is implied as their mother and when the witch died so she?
Seeing that the mother of Hänsel and Gretel is named as their biological but in other version their stepmother, and being displayed as a schemer that is badly out for money to the point of sacrificing the kids is more than enough reason to look into.
Especially when we have several indications of Kyrie being deep in this, question is just how much.
I'm not ignoring it, I just don't think it's very important. There are many, many different versions of old folk tales like that (don't get me started on the more vulgar tellings of Little Red Riding Hood), and the Grimm Brothers merely collected, and often, altered them to be more acceptable to the readership of their time.

It is interesting that the mother is sometimes their biological mother, and sometimes their stepmother, since Kyrie is a "stepmother" who is, in reality, a biological mother, but I'd consider it a nice bonus, since it's a less consistent detail. I would also say that she was not implied to be the witch, at all, except perhaps metaphorically.

Also, I'm almost certain Ryukishi himself said he named Ange, Kyrie, and Asumu after support spells from Ragnarok Online (woohoo, Full Support Priests for the WIN!). It always amused me (and I guess, him), since you can't cast Kyrie-Eleison and Assumptio on the same target ... well, you can, but one will overwrite the other. And Angelus is a prerequisite spell for learning both.

Also, I'm curious why you think Kyrie, specifically, is far more involved than any of the other adults?


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Originally Posted by Kiltias View Post
Scuse me, this is probably cause English isn't my mother language but does the second red mean each one of them was killed by someone else than the other?
Yeah, it definitely could have been worded better (a lot of the Reds can be, honestly). Cao Ni Ma has it right, though, it's supposed to mean that their death was definitely a homicide.

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Ah, that's right. I forgot about EP4... yikes...

Honestly, I was just being kind of silly, and quite aware that the Kyrie Motive as presented in EP7 and EP8 was quite weak. Still, it would be interesting to find that there is some sort of loophole in the red that makes it possible for Kyrie to have committed the crimes, considering Bern used it twice against Ange, there must have been *something* to it, other than "Ange is alive and is now the heir to all the Ushiromiya's money."
Weeeellll, we know Rudolf got one of the posthumous vaults full of money ala' Our Confessions ... and there IS that one removed frame from Eva's diary where Kyrie was holding a gun?
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Old 2012-11-02, 19:26   Link #31075
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Could also make some hay of Yasu's martyr complex as Beatrice: Her love for Battler spurs her to protect him as a counter-agent to Kyrie, to the point that she'd be willing to shoulder the blame for it too in order to protect him from any possible notion of involvement.

I'm not sure there's enough evidence, though... although Kyrie does say some pretty mysterious things in just about every episode.
It would match with Ep 3 & 6 where Beato comes to resque Battler (though in EP 3 she was actually tricking him...)... and the fact that Battler disappeared in EP 7. If for some reason Yasu wasn't killed by Kyrie's shoot and got up she could have told Battler to escape.

Well, if we consider the episodes Toya wrote she's pretty suspicious.
In Ep 3 it's implied it was her gun who shoot at Hideyoshi and she was the one who had the plan to drag him there. We're also told she's very good with guns.

In EP 4 she's possibly one of the last survivors and she does a phonecall in which she suggests to Battler he should believe witches so she's evidently a Yasu's accomplice at best. She's also the one who corners Krauss into calling Kinzo.

In Ep 5 first she gets Natsuhi to admit the gold is father's so, if she wants to argue about Battler getting it she should call Kinzo then she's trying to get Natsuhi to admit 'she was the last to see father'. She's also the one that stops Erika from playing detective once during Hideyoshi's murder case.

In Ep 6 she confesses she wanted to kill Asumu and was ready to do it.

In Ep 7 she doesn't do much but Bern guaranteed that Lion would be killed by her (which might mean nothing as Lion technically doesn't exist).

Funny enough, although she finds hard to be civil to Battler, she's someone Battler looks up at, so, even if he hadn't know she was his mother, her betrayal would surely hurt him quite a bit.

And interesting enough it would be much easier for Kyrie than for George to make disappear Battler's letter for Shannon... though this is one of the many things that can't be proved.

However... yes, it's all circumstancial, it's not real evidence...
All we know for sure is that Rudolf was supposed to be Beato's accomplice... which might have given her a chance to use Beato's plan to her own advantage.

Though Beato could have hired more than one sibling so even this means little...
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Old 2012-11-02, 20:57   Link #31076
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Kyrie is very easy to make out as the culprit except for EP2, where it's pretty hard to get her out of the chapel. But, yes, she's a sensible suspect for EP3 and EP4. And EP1 could be pretty much anyone (although Kanon being the most likely).

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Also, I'm almost certain Ryukishi himself said he named Ange, Kyrie, and Asumu after support spells from Ragnarok Online (woohoo, Full Support Priests for the WIN!). It always amused me (and I guess, him), since you can't cast Kyrie-Eleison and Assumptio on the same target ... well, you can, but one will overwrite the other. And Angelus is a prerequisite spell for learning both.
Ahahahahahaha! I've played quite a lot of RO and hadn't realized this! Ryukishi is so silly sometimes.

It's also funny because Angelus is a crappy, useless spell.

And yeah, FS priests FTW.
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Old 2012-11-03, 13:12   Link #31077
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So if I get this right, the general idea seems to be that people wanted "a reason" to murder. Not necessarily a good one, but one that doesn't entirely goes against the characterisation we've been given of a given character.

Something like plenty of people probably might have a reason to kill x other person, but the whole family? That's insane right? But that's also more or less what I'm wondering. Is it possible that the murders we've seen, as let's say depicted in arc 1, could lead to something that really made a whole lot of sense?

Ironically it seems to be the main problem with Shkanon theory as well. It's hard to pull off, but not entirely impossible, however what is hard to imagine is "why". Why would you begin to do that?

Still in the end it only seems to make certain that we're missing on the heart entirely.

I'd say oddly enough if Kinzo was somehow still alive it would suit him sorta. Sure he might not always be a jerk, but he has mood swings, and is closing in death, and his family are only talking about how to better chew up his bones. Not to mention being quite drunk it seems most of the time. Ironic in that we were presented with a very believable culprit right from arc 1.


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Could also make some hay of Yasu's martyr complex as Beatrice: Her love for Battler spurs her to protect him as a counter-agent to Kyrie, to the point that she'd be willing to shoulder the blame for it too in order to protect him from any possible notion of involvement.

I'm not sure there's enough evidence, though... although Kyrie does say some pretty mysterious things in just about every episode.
Perhaps not Kyrie, but generally speaking that idea seems to be emerging. Yasu could be taking the blame for someone else.
Still the Kyrie idea has the merit of explaining the pertinence of Yasu knowing about Battler's real mother.


Sorta random too but I was thinking that the scene where George asks Yasu for an answer by tomorrow might more or less refers to the general idea behind Yasu and Battler's return. By the time the weekend ends, she'll have in a way or another her answer from Battler. I'm thinking tho she wasn't necessarily going to reveal any of the secrets of the island, she also didn't have any reasons to continue pursuing them further then this weekend. What does this have to do with murders? I don't know, but at the very least it seems like a start in explaining the role of Battler's return. I can more or less see a trail from there that goes to George learning that Yasu still loves Battler and bad things happening afterward, but I guess it still doesn't explain the weird witch like mass murders.

Last edited by UsagiTenpura; 2012-11-03 at 13:29.
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Old 2012-11-03, 13:54   Link #31078
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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
And interesting enough it would be much easier for Kyrie than for George to make disappear Battler's letter for Shannon... though this is one of the many things that can't be proved.
On the other hand, her motive for doing so is weak.

For another, how did she know anything about what kind of relationship Battler and Shannon might have had; she'd never seen them together. (Kyrie must have thought that Battler wasn't making any other contact with Shannon and that he had no plans of doing so, other than that letter; otherwise, stealing that one letter would be pointless. He'd deliberately turned down the opportunity to go to Rokkenjima (see Shannon) that year. Breaking up a relationship that had been cold for three years, that had no direct likelihood of restarting on its own, and that she had no good reason to believe had existed in the first place, doesn't seem terribly difficult.)
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Old 2012-11-03, 14:50   Link #31079
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I think another problem is the lack of description about the 'death of a personality' until around EP6 (and even so, this is through meta-allegory). In general, you can twist this around to create any kind of cheap mystery.

"Oh, the personality didn't die, it was just hiding."
"The personality died but then came back."
"The personality went to Hawaii but once Kanon entered the room, it came back."
"Erika is dead, but Shannon and Kanon count as people but one human, but Kinzo doesn't because he's dead, and possibly Eva and Eva-Beatrice are different people too."

Another complaint I hear (not mine) is that Ryukishi marketed this as a mystery, but in reality, you couldn't really even possibly solve it without examining the themes of the story. All that stuff with the red couldn't be solvable without knowing about Shkanon. I think THIS is the point of "without love, it cannot be seen" and Willard's fixation on the heart in EP7. This is not the logic puzzle we thought it was; you had to be able to discern the motive and the secret of Shkanon before you could even do any effective reasoning.

Instead of:
"It's possible to discover personality death through the red truth."
It is:
"Multiple personalities are a recurring theme in Umineko, I wonder how they hold up against the red truth?"

If I remember correctly, Shkanon started because "lol they're both servants" and it just happened that they never appeared at the same time. In retrospect, I think the "red truth" is just a way to check if you came across the correct answer. Not necessarily a method to begin reasoning with.
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Old 2012-11-03, 15:32   Link #31080
qno2
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack
If I remember correctly, Shkanon started because "lol they're both servants" and it just happened that they never appeared at the same time. In retrospect, I think the "red truth" is just a way to check if you came across the correct answer. Not necessarily a method to begin reasoning with.
All in all you could argue that the most of the red in EP2-4 was just a distraction, a... 'red herring' ... I'm sorry, in terms of finding the culprit - then again originally it was created as a rule back when Battler only cared about the how-(a human could've)-dunnit so that was never the goal anyway.

It seemed to work quite well in distracting from the narrative and the hints contained therein (if not hints for Yasu, at least hints towards Shannon), considering Erika's existence.
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