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Old 2012-11-06, 03:24   Link #2141
Xacual
The color of a Hero
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mentar View Post
Action? What do you mean?

And just for fairness: I recognize that your side has a real shot for victory. Heck, Americans reelected Dubyah, so it certainly CAN happen. So, I can be wrong, too.

I'm going to watch Intrade very curiously tomorrow. At the moment, we're at 68% Obama 32% Romney.
He's just a troll Mentar, don't take him seriously.
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Old 2012-11-06, 03:30   Link #2142
flying ^
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Join Date: Sep 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xacual View Post
He's just a troll Mentar, don't take him seriously.
bro, I'm serious

i made some bets going against the trend/herd and won BIG

... trying my luck this time in politics and see where it goes
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Old 2012-11-06, 03:47   Link #2143
Destined_Fate
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Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: "Sacrifice one to appease the few."
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mentar View Post
I may be wrong, but it seems to me that rarely there was a race in which both sides were as certain of their impending victory as today.

This is going to make for an interesting wednesday
I know there will be a lot of anger when the results are in with the losing side blaming the other side.
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Old 2012-11-06, 03:50   Link #2144
flying ^
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Join Date: Sep 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mentar View Post
Nate Silver's
... this is from the same man that tried to obsesively de-legitimize Rasmussen?



The New York Times’ statistics guru, Nate Silver, is infallible. You see, Silver doesn’t predict election winners and losers; he only gives odds of winning and losing. So even if Silver gave Obama a 99% chance of winning, an Obama loss would still be perfectly consistent with Silver’s projections. In other words, when it comes to measuring Silver’s performance, heads Silver wins, tails his critics lose.

But while his statistical methodology might give Silver cover against charges of liberal bias in his projections, it does little to explain the double standard he applies to Rasmussen’s polling. Dating back to his blogging days at FiveThirtyEight.com, Silver has been on a mission to discredit Rasmussen’s polls, which Silver views as biased in favor of Republican candidates. What’s more, Silver has allowed his Rasmussen obsession to influence his supposedly objective statistical analysis.....


Spoiler for continue...:





Quote:
Originally Posted by Destined_Fate View Post
I know there will be a lot of anger when the results are in with the losing side blaming the other side.
I'm sure not downplaying riots from the Crips Blue side if desired result is not realized

... as for me, I'll just sit it out (in safe, undisclosed location) and best tune in to Track 4 of The Chronic IF it really does hit the fan...

Last edited by flying ^; 2012-11-06 at 04:09.
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Old 2012-11-06, 04:32   Link #2145
Destined_Fate
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Location: "Sacrifice one to appease the few."
It's for both sides, this race has been extremely negative that I wouldn't put it past anyone going crazy if their candidate loses.
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Old 2012-11-06, 04:57   Link #2146
Mentar
Sore wa himitsu desu!
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Hamburg
Age: 44
flying: That's a pure opinion piece pretty much devoid of any relevant facts.

That Rasmussen is - to put it lightly - GOP-leaning is a simple undisputable fact. His polls are almost consistently the right outlier, plain to see for everyone involved. What's worse: There's enough empirical evidence that he is purposely skewing his results towards his GOP clients all the time, and in the last 2 days before the election "jumping back into the pack" (to protect his reputation).

Now the problem is that if you feed data which you know is skewed by an unknown amount into what's supposed to be an objective statistical model, it's getting diluted. By refusing to add Rasmussen, Nate Silver essentially says "I don't trust your numbers to be genuine". I understand very well why Silver would think so (nobody but the GOP believes Rasmussen to be genuine).

I think we should just wait and see tomorrow. By raising the Obama probability above 90%, he essentially said "Obama will win".
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Old 2012-11-06, 05:00   Link #2147
flying ^
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Destined_Fate View Post
It's for both sides, this race has been extremely negative that I wouldn't put it past anyone going crazy if their candidate loses.
This one simply takes the cake. Devolution taking place just before soon-to-be former president's eviction day!




... just substitute a *female dog* with *Mitt*
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Old 2012-11-06, 05:36   Link #2148
Mentar
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Hamburg
Age: 44
Heh... I saw the "credits" you listed as evidence against Silver. A Corporate Attourney and Jonah Goldberg, a well-known conservative hack. Both of them with as much knowledge in statistical analysis as I have in brain surgery

Look: Just to explain the reasoning in a placative example:

I start "ObamaRoxPolling (ORP)". No matter what the poll, Obama ends up with 100% of the votes.

Now, would Nate Silver have to include me in his analysis? He would be a fool if he did, and it would damage the accuracy of his model. It's not that Nate Silver and his model would "have a problem with ORP", it's just that he doesn't deem my numbers to be credible. And it's entirely up to him to make this decision.

So, if he believes that his model works better without Rasmussen, that's entirely within his prerogative to omit him. Whether or not he's "more correct" remains to be seen. Rasmussen has Romney+1 nationally. Silver has Obama+2.6
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Old 2012-11-06, 08:13   Link #2149
james0246
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: East Cupcake
It's Election Time (in a America, but I'm sure some other regions as well)! Polls open at 6AM wherever you are in the country, and they promptly close at 7PM, so be prepared. Please go out and vote and have fun (the presidential election can be more fun to watch than any Super Bowl or World Series).

That being said, please try to be at you most civil today. I'd hate for anyone to miss out on the fun on these forums simply because they couldn't handle their opinions being questioned/disagreed with. Despite what anyone may think, tomorrow is not the beginning of the end of the world.
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Old 2012-11-06, 08:52   Link #2150
kyp275
ZA ZOMBIE!!!
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Somewhere in the EVE cluster...
Quote:
Originally Posted by james0246 View Post
That being said, please try to be at you most civil today. I'd hate for anyone to miss out on the fun on these forums simply because they couldn't handle their opinions being questioned/disagreed with. Despite what anyone may think, tomorrow is not the beginning of the end of the world.
No it's not, the end of the world is not for another 45 days
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Old 2012-11-06, 09:15   Link #2151
GDB
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Join Date: Sep 2008
Age: 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Destined_Fate View Post
I know there will be a lot of anger when the results are in with the losing side blaming the other side.
Well, clearly it's the winning side that caused the winner to win...

Quote:
Originally Posted by james0246 View Post
Polls open at 6AM wherever you are in the country, and they promptly close at 7PM, so be prepared.
Hrm? Mine open at 7AM and close at 8PM.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kyp275 View Post
No it's not, the end of the world is not for another 45 days
Mayans didn't have leap years. Their actual projected end of the world date was something like October 2011.


Btw, anyone know if Daily Show is doing a live coverage this year like usual?
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Old 2012-11-06, 09:38   Link #2152
james0246
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^Yes the Daily Show/Colbert Report will be live tonight. And, it will probably be sometime during the time their shows are on that the election results will be confirmed (I remember watching in 2008 as Colbert, obviously elated by the news, tried to stay in character all the while wanting to jump up and down with excitement).
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Old 2012-11-06, 09:48   Link #2153
GDB
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Join Date: Sep 2008
Age: 28
Yeah, I remember 2008's as well, and loved it. That's why I was hoping they'd do it again (though if I recall, it was longer last year, like 3 or 4 hours long).
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Old 2012-11-06, 09:49   Link #2154
Dr. Casey
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Tennessee
Age: 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by GDB View Post
Mayans didn't have leap years. Their actual projected end of the world date was something like October 2011.
whoa

so that explains why I died last year
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Old 2012-11-06, 09:56   Link #2155
kyp275
ZA ZOMBIE!!!
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Casey View Post
whoa

so that explains why I died last year
I guess we're all just a figment of some alien's imagination.


Sweet!



also, just came back from the polling place, took about 40 min, not too bad.
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Old 2012-11-06, 10:08   Link #2156
Iron Maw
The Black Wing
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Casey View Post
whoa

so that explains why I died last year
Hahaha

Quote:
Originally Posted by kyp275 View Post
also, just came back from the polling place, took about 40 min, not too bad.
Same, as did most of my family.

+4 for Obama in MA.
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Old 2012-11-06, 10:23   Link #2157
Vallen Chaos Valiant
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Join Date: Nov 2004
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Hoping that Romney loses the EC but wins popular vote. I think most people agree that the EC system doesn't work well and that it has the best chance of being removed for 2016 in this scenario.
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Old 2012-11-06, 10:33   Link #2158
kyp275
ZA ZOMBIE!!!
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Somewhere in the EVE cluster...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant View Post
Hoping that Romney loses the EC but wins popular vote. I think most people agree that the EC system doesn't work well and that it has the best chance of being removed for 2016 in this scenario.
Eh, the EC system certainly has its drawbacks, but it has its plus too.
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Old 2012-11-06, 10:48   Link #2159
ArchmageXin
Master of Coin
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
I am not voting for either great flip-floppers or Failbama.

Obama lost my vote when he went he thought expanded reckless CIA drone- bombing was a good idea. Then he cross the line and start bombing American citizens without due process. Even if his heart is in the right place to protect America, he started the slippery slope toward the Reichstag fire act by allowing this. Who knows what would the NEXT president expand on this?

As for Romney, well, his words and acts explain themselves.
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Old 2012-11-06, 10:51   Link #2160
GundamFan0083
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Join Date: May 2009
Location: classified
I'm going to inject some sanity into this.

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