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Old 2012-12-09, 22:04   Link #161
ArchmageXin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogon_bat View Post
China has already blocked export of rare earth metals and when world oil reserves start to decline you can bet the USA will hog oil exports (they blocked oil to japan before WWII and we know what happened next) which will make whatever oil reserve that region has into strategical reserves.
Do you know why Rare earth are "RARE?"

BECAUSE THEY ARE TOXIC AS HELL TO MINE.

There are huge reserves of those kind of stuff all over the planet, USA included. China, ignorant of the real dangers, in the 90s sold this stuff really cheap. It screwed the American miners yes, but also spared the American public from dangerous toxic by products. Now days, China want to raise the price and lower production, because they realize this stuff is dangerous.

Solution? Western gov can cancel their version of the EPA and start mining again. Easy...as long as you want to take care of the environmental hazards too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KiraYamatoFan View Post
The scenario from Call of Duty: Black Ops II doesn't sound too farfetched after all. By letting China controlling the entire rare earth element market and now more oil reserves, the entire world economy is running towards a wall and God knows what would happen next on foreign politics as a result.

To close down the subject of oil reserves (and also rare earth metals from mines in Quebec), the Canadian government should have found a way to nationalize the whole shit at home or find ways to keep it safe within our hands instead of selling it to companies mostly owned by China. If anyone thinks that the sale to China doesn't represent a risk to national security, that person is deluded when all signs are pointing towards Cold War II minimum at this rate. For the record, the arms race has already begun and I find it hard to believe this is something you can hide under the rug considering how they started by having a shot at Japan and the Philippines.

I only wish Germans and Japanese are more involved on this rare earth materials market as more trustworthy clients if any. At least, they are not at risk with a military force getting greedier and earning more funds every year passing by.
Good luck nationalizing oil and gas on a openly traded market. Oh, also there is another word that associated with nationalization. What was it called again? I know Americans absolutely hate the word....

help me out....

oh,


Socialism.

As for military greedy for funds, can you explain to me how that is different than the military of EVERY FUCKEN COUNTRY ON THE PLANET? Shall we start to examine pentagon's budget, which is 7 times of the next guy up, and Britain, a couple islands far from any threat, has more to spent than Russia?

Last edited by relentlessflame; 2012-12-10 at 02:04. Reason: double-post
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Old 2012-12-09, 23:38   Link #162
mangamuscle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArchmageXin View Post
Do you know why Rare earth are "RARE?"

BECAUSE THEY ARE TOXIC AS HELL TO MINE.

There are huge reserves of those kind of stuff all over the planet, USA included. China, ignorant of the real dangers, in the 90s sold this stuff really cheap. It screwed the American miners yes, but also spared the American public from dangerous toxic by products. Now days, China want to raise the price and lower production, because they realize this stuff is dangerous.

Solution? Western gov can cancel their version of the EPA and start mining again. Easy...as long as you want to take care of the environmental hazards too.
You want us to believe that suddenly that China's communist party have had an epiphany and become tree huggers? Get real, they want to use this as short term political and economical advantage since they know closed mines will reopen all over the world. Look at the rest of the world talking about taking baby steps in anything relation to better the environment and you want us to believe China has moved decisively in that direction? Please do enlighten me in how China is taking the lead in reducing their carbon emissions and is cleaning their polluted landscape.
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Old 2012-12-10, 00:16   Link #163
ArchmageXin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogon_bat View Post
You want us to believe that suddenly that China's communist party have had an epiphany and become tree huggers? Get real, they want to use this as short term political and economical advantage since they know closed mines will reopen all over the world. Look at the rest of the world talking about taking baby steps in anything relation to better the environment and you want us to believe China has moved decisively in that direction? Please do enlighten me in how China is taking the lead in reducing their carbon emissions and is cleaning their polluted landscape.
Yes, because shit like these

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/29/wo...third-day.html

That is right, where once Chinese gov can just deploy machine guns on civils, they now realize now things are fucken dangerous.

You do not know how bad some of those cities in China are, that is why China is busy pouring tons of cash into public transit and solar/wind energy, because they realize the American dream of having House+ 2 Car + 2.5 Kids and have it apply to China will be the end of China---if not the entire world in a economic armageddon.

Obama see the same thing, but wonder men in Congress (Read: republican oil lobby) is doing drill drill drill rather going for the long term.

And before you say crap like China never realizing the value of conservation, you forget ultimate sacrifice-by limiting the entire population to prevent a biological armageddon. Let me know when the west think about the same.

As for rare earth? What advantage can China earn? America and the rest of the world can re-open those mines anytime it wants. (SEE: ECONOMICS), just get a good government lobby (SEE OIL, GAS), and you will get rare earth minerals in no time.

Oh, see here: U.S is doing it
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountai...are_earth_mine

Why don't you go down to the bottom and read about the byproducts?

Quote:
In 1998, chemical processing at the mine was stopped after a series of wastewater leaks. Hundreds of thousands of gallons of water carrying radioactive waste spilled into and around Ivanpah Dry Lake.[7]

In the 1980s, the company began piping wastewater as far as 14 miles to evaporation ponds on or near Ivanpah Dry Lake, east of Interstate 15 near Nevada. This pipeline repeatedly ruptured during cleaning operations to remove mineral deposits called scale. The scale is radioactive because of the presence of thorium and radium, which occur naturally in the rare earth ore. A federal investigation later found that some 60 spills—some unreported—occurred between 1984 and 1998, when the pipeline was shut down. In all, about 600,000 gallons of radioactive and other hazardous waste flowed onto the desert floor, according to federal authorities. By the end of the 1990s, Unocal was served with a cleanup order and a San Bernardino County district attorney's lawsuit. The company paid more than $1.4 million in fines and settlements. After preparing a cleanup plan and completing an extensive environmental study, Unocal in 2004 won approval of a county permit that allowed the mine to operate for another 30 years. The mine also passed a key county inspection in 2007.[5]
Now you know why nobody liked to do rare earth for the long term.

Last edited by ArchmageXin; 2012-12-10 at 00:18. Reason: I will help you out.
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Old 2012-12-10, 02:16   Link #164
relentlessflame
 
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This thread has veered a really, really long ways from its original topic, and now it's just about Chinese policies and international politics in general. The tone of this cyclic conversation unsurprisingly isn't very productive, because it's become basically a game of accusing and defending. If there is more to discuss about the true topic at hand, okay, but otherwise we may just lock this thread and put an end to this.
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Old 2012-12-10, 02:40   Link #165
NoemiChan
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Personally.. it's better to be renamed as "The South East Asian Territorial Conflict"..

Putting us back on track

As China's clout grows, sea policy proves unfathomable

Quote:
That, in effect, is what happened in China about a week ago. The tropical province of Hainan, home to beachfront resorts and one of China's largest naval bases, authorized a unit of the police to interdict foreign vessels operating "illegally" in the island's waters, which, according to China, include much of the heavily disputed South China Sea.
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Old 2012-12-10, 07:56   Link #166
TinyRedLeaf
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GenjiChan View Post
The link to Reuter's own site over here.

The thread topic is too narrow to begin with and should be broadened to include the entire spectrum of Chinese foreign policy.

On that note, I highlight the salient points from Reuter's analysis which cover the messy state of Chinese foreign policy:
Quote:
(1)
The fact that a provincial government can unilaterally worsen one of China's most sensitive diplomatic problems highlights the dysfunctionality, and potential danger, of policymaking in this arena, analysts say. "It shows what a mess Chinese foreign policy is when it comes to the South China Sea," said a Western diplomat in China, speaking on condition of anonymity.

(2)
According to a report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) earlier this year, no fewer than 11 government entities — from the tourism administration to the navy — play a role in the South China Sea. All, the ICG said, have the potential to take action that could cause diplomatic fallout.

(3)
The Foreign Ministry has a mandate to coordinate among the various players, but it doesn't have the bureaucratic clout to do so effectively. "The Foreign Ministry is low down on the pecking order and there are competing departments making different decisions. It's not joined up at all," said a diplomat.

(4)
Another complicating factor in the competing territorial claims in the South China Sea is that Beijing itself has left ambiguous exactly what the "nine-dash line" on Chinese maps of the region implies. The line, which loops south along Vietnam and back up by the Philippines, appears to delineate China's territorial claims.

But it's not so simple. Mr Carlyle Thayer, a South China Sea specialist at the University of New South Wales in Australia, said in 26 academic conferences he has attended in the past two years, repeated questions to multiple Chinese scholars about just what the line means yielded no clear answer.

"No one in China can tell you what that means," he said. "You have competing actors all backing Chinese sovereignty in an area where no one knows where it is, so it's inherently ambiguous."

REUTERS
I have ignored most of this thread, so I don't know if this point has already been brought up. Even if it had been, it bears repeating. China has recently undergone a once-in-a-decade leadership change which leaves party cadres and local politicians in a state of flux. Everyone is struggling to figure out where they stand and how they can benefit from the new status quo.

Beijing no longer has a strongman capable of imposing his will on competing factions within the Communist Party. We see signs of increasing factionalism, as each group jockeys for positions within the Politburo Standing Committee. If a senior China correspondent of a Singapore newspaper is to be believed, the party has also been severely rocked by a barely averted coup attempt by Bo Xilai. Basically, this means that central power is starting to fragment, with possibly dire consequences for China and its neighbours.

We are in a situation now where ambitious local politicians and party cadres are raring to assert their patriotic credentials through provocative actions that the central government is barely aware of, let alone control.

This is a worrying trend and further reinforces my belief that strident Chinese nationalism is on an inevitable rise. Not because Beijing wills it, but because it is unable to keep a lid on it, due to the inherent problems of an undemocratic political system weakened further by politicians' almost complete disregard for the law. (To quote the senior correspondent of the Singapore paper: "The law serves politics in China." Which is to say, the people in power follow the law only when it suits them.)

In a situation such as this, it becomes important for the rest of the region to work harder to contain China. When it comes to realpolitik, smaller powers have no choice but to prepare for the worst even as they hope for the best. And if the worst does happen, it's going to be very, very ugly indeed. All the more reason to be well-prepared.
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Old 2012-12-10, 09:43   Link #167
ArchmageXin
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Bo Xi Lai's coup is grossly overstated. He had no real control over the military, and had power through mostly the old-boys prince network. The fact his take down was utterly complete meant he really didn't have the literal power as some classic "strongmen" have.

As for the other "worrying trends" you cited, well, everyone thought China was going to fall apart when Mao died. It didn't, Deng died (well portrayed in Tom Clancy novels), it didn't.

Heck, one could say the U.S Fiscal cliff show down is a lot more dangerous than the current Chinese change.

Even if Chinese government does collapse, neighbors shouldn't worry too much other than loss of economic consumption. After all, in 5000 years of chinese history, there was never a case where the central government fell apart and neighbors suffer. Because the chinese would be busy shooting each other.
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Old 2012-12-10, 10:20   Link #168
TinyRedLeaf
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArchmageXin View Post
Bo Xi Lai's coup is grossly overstated. He had no real control over the military, and had power through mostly the old-boys prince network. The fact his take down was utterly complete meant he really didn't have the literal power as some classic "strongmen" have.
The coup attempt would have been fuelled by neo-conservative Maoist popularism, and would not have required military action. There are other ways to exercise political power without resorting to force, especially when you are concerned about maintaining an image of "civilised" strength, for both domestic and international observers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArchmageXin View Post
As for the other "worrying trends" you cited, well, everyone thought China was going to fall apart when Mao died. It didn't, Deng died (well portrayed in Tom Clancy novels).
I'll just say that I don't share your optimism. It's not necessarily China that will collapse, but central government that may well totter. That is inevitable in a byzantine government that is so overwhelmingly top-heavy, and which has no transparent oversight over local governments. We already see the consequences of that on day-to-day life in China. Rampant corruption and frequent abuses of power by local officials. Xi Jinping has echoed similar concerns over the past week, although in so doing, he merely echoes his predecessor, who barely made a dent on corruption.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArchmageXin View Post
Even if Chinese government does collapse, neighbors shouldn't worry too much other than loss of economic consumption. After all, in 5000 years of chinese history, there was never a case where the central government fell apart and neighbors suffer. Because the chinese would be busy shooting each other.
The naivete of such a view speaks for itself.
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Old 2012-12-10, 12:59   Link #169
ArchmageXin
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Quote:
The coup attempt would have been fuelled by neo-conservative Maoist popularism, and would not have required military action. There are other ways to exercise political power without resorting to force, especially when you are concerned about maintaining an image of "civilised" strength, for both domestic and international observers.
Maoism is dead and will be buried once the last few non-cons die out. Biology is not on their side. Only time Maoists get a revival is when something happens due to U.S inference (See bombing of Chinese embassy, that spy plane incident). As China became more open and more and more of its current generation study aboard, Maoist ideology is pretty much locked in a biological trap like the current Republican party (Only replace grouchy old white men with grouchy old chinese men)

Quote:
I'll just say that I don't share your optimism. It's not necessarily China that will collapse, but central government that may well totter. That is inevitable in a byzantine government that is so overwhelmingly top-heavy, and which has no transparent oversight over local governments. We already see the consequences of that on day-to-day life in China. Rampant corruption and frequent abuses of power by local officials. Xi Jinping has echoed similar concerns over the past week, although in so doing, he merely echoes his predecessor, who barely made a dent on corruption.
Corruption exists before the current government, it will exist after the current government. Believe it or not, it actually IMPROVED in the last 20-30 years because the coming of mass Internet media. Stuff that used to be swept under the table is now coming out. Having lived in China is the 90s and hear about people talking about 20s-80s, I can tell you China is having the best governance in over 4000 years Heck, the fact this governmental transition occurred without being a father-son hand over and without a civil war is a drastic improvement than chinese governance in the last....4000 years.
Quote:
The naivete of such a view speaks for itself.
And your overwhelming paranoia speak for it self.

The west has been ringing the doomsday bell on China since the day after 10.1.1949. And it is still standing.
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