[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[jjblue1]

Originally Posted by qno2

Don't forget that Nanjo is not a murderer - just like Genji and Kumasawa. Sure, maybe it referred just to EP1 but it seems like a pretty general statement to me. Therefore, him accidentally causing someones death as a physician doesn't count as "murder" either. Even more, because the red about him not being a murderer could be established in the first place it means that no past event marked him as one. So his only way of becoming a "culprit" is to murder someone on Rokkenjima 1986. Which might be impossible as well depending on how we deal with that red statement.

I was thinking to this statement from Erika:

A 'culprit' is defined as 'one who murders'. It never says that they have to murder someone who appears in the story. ......In other words. If George committed murder outside the island, sometime before this crime, he could be a 'culprit' without killing anyone on the island, and it would be possible for him to lie.

Same goes for Nanjo. Of course the story never refers to George as the murder of someone out of Rokkenjima in the same way as it never refer to Nanjo as someone's murder however this explanation was accepted and allowed to be in red for Bern's game.

Not that I believe the purple to matter in the other gameboards but apparently it's structured to permit this sort of logic twisting.

[qno2]

I was aware jiblue.

And I was referring to: Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo are not killers. Unless the translation has made a little blunder there (and the Japanese sentence is actually way more precise), it seems to say "they didn't kill each other, have never killed and can't kill period - they are not killers."
If we take the red like this, and apparently it's quite popular to do so: the very fact that this could be stated about Nanjo (and because that red doesn't specify that it's only talking about Rokkenjima 1986) means that he hasn't killed anyone in the past either, otherwise he'd already be a killer/murderer.
So Erika's red can't apply to him or the other two since backstories can't magically change like the contents of the cat box.

Or we argue about the semantics between "murderer" and "killer", sure.

What are we even doing? Both of us agree that Bern's game and it's special rules don't really hold any significance for Beato's gameboards.


Anything we haven't complained about lately?

[Wanderer]

Originally Posted by qno2

Just noticed something interesting in that regard and it reminded me of that imageboard (seacats.com or something) where dozens of Rosatrice followers fell without Shkanon followers even saying anything. Specifically, it reminds me of a certain little monologue:

Yeah, that was a fun little debate, and I liked the writer of that monologue... but isn't "dozens fell" an exaggeration of... irresponsible proportions?

Originally Posted by qno2

Little side note: Though I think I understand what he's playing at, sometimes I still wonder whether what he and I see are really the same things - I just don't think the revelation "EP7-Yasu is possibly more about prime and thus the author, whose self-insert is the culprit in the stories" is that much of a ... breakthrough.

I think his revelation was more meta than that. It's more like he realized that it doesn't matter how ridiculous ShKanon is, because if that's the story the author finds meaningful and wants to express, then that's that; and he realized that this very concept was what Ryukishi was expressing with Umineko. Well, that's what I think. Obviously, it seemed difficult for him to put his revelation into words.

ShKanon people, although diverse themselves, all understand Umineko on some kind of meta-level. Anti-ShKanonism is the result of a deficiency in meta-understanding.

Originally Posted by Kealym

Not necessarily. In worlds where Eva dies, she'd almost certainly end up with the Sumadera's (she was staying with Kyrie's parents during the conference after all, IIRC).

I believe it was Kyrie's dad who we're talking about, who was supposedly a decent person and a black sheep of the Sumaderas... Though I doubt he could have protected Ange from the rest of the Sumaderas like Eva could.

Originally Posted by Kealym

There was no knock, or letter.

No knock, sure, but why no letter? The red syntax seems to imply that the letter at least exists, and there's no need doubt its existence to make the lie interpretation work, as it could have simply been written by anyone in the parlor. In fact, it would be foolish for them to lie about that letter-and-knock event and not have the necessary after-the-fact prop.

Originally Posted by AC-Phoenix

The wording 'the clock struck twelve' and not 'it was 12 am' So it could have actually been 2200 it could have also been 1900, no one ever says what time it actually was. I already read that part of the manga btw.

Yes, but even then who is eligible to have knocked in the hallway, 24:00 or not?

Originally Posted by qno2

It's the power and determination of love!

Otherwise the problem arises how she hid the weapon from the all-seeing eye of our incompetent detective.

Since when was Battler all-seeing?

Originally Posted by qno2

Or we argue about the semantics between "murderer" and "killer", sure.

Don't. Those two words are often translated from the same word in the source Japanese.

-------------------------------------

Since the overall intrigue of EP5 is being discussed and there seem to be a few new people around, I'm going to reintroduce a theory I've mentioned before (hopefully in a more organized, more convincing way).

Now, in EP5 there's that scene where Erika and Battler are in the middle of solving the epitaph and searching for the path to the gold, and then Battler has a vision of Kinzo, who points the way for him. But we also know that No person would mistake Ushiromiya Kinzo by sight. So then we know for a fact that when Battler told Erika that "grandfather pointed the way", he was lying.

Nothing special so far, I know, since this logic was all explained as part of the EP5 ura anyway. However, if you think about what Battler was lying about, and the possible reasons for why he would lie about it, there are some very surprising implications.

First, I'll re-summarize the scene here, with the unreliable parts in gold:

Spoiler for summary:

Erika and Battler are at the chapel and just pushed in the final letter for solving the epitaph. Battler observes out loud that Erika has a crappy personality, and Erika admits this openly. Erika goes into how entertaining it will be to see the family squabble over the gold, and begins to talk about her predictions in detail. Dispirited by the revelation that the gold will lead to family infighting, Battler turns his back on her and, not listening to her "mumble on", seems to enter some kind of trance. He sees Kinzo, who points out the way to the gold to Battler. Battler falls out of his trance, just barely catching the end of Erika's spiel. Battler then says he's found the way. Erika expresses surprise that Battler was observant enough to notice the turned lion statue. Battler says that it was Kinzo who showed him.

As for what Battler is lying about, it's how he came to be aware that one of the lion statues was facing a new direction. So then here's the important question that no one seems to think about: What was Battler actually thinking and/or looking at during the above summary's gold section? And whatever it was, why did Battler lie about it?

You could suppose that he was simply contemplating the new revelation that the gold would cause problems in his family, when he coincidentally saw the lion statue turned, then mentioned it to Erika (despite having just realized that finding the gold is actually a bad thing), but since he was a bit mad at her decided to tease her a little bit by lying about having met Kinzo.

Possible, of course, but I think this theory sucks. It has too many weird jumps in Battler's thought process. So, here's the theory I like:

Spoiler for drumroll please:

Battler already knew where the gold was, but was pretending not to in front of Erika.

Thoughts?

[jjblue1]

Originally Posted by Wanderer

Since the overall intrigue of EP5 is being discussed and there seem to be a few new people around, I'm going to reintroduce a theory I've mentioned before (hopefully in a more organized, more convincing way).

Now, in EP5 there's that scene where Erika and Battler are in the middle of solving the epitaph and searching for the path to the gold, and then Battler has a vision of Kinzo, who points the way for him. But we also know that No person would mistake Ushiromiya Kinzo by sight. So then we know for a fact that when Battler told Erika that "grandfather pointed the way", he was lying.

Nothing special so far, I know, since this logic was all explained as part of the EP5 ura anyway. However, if you think about what Battler was lying about, and the possible reasons for why he would lie about it, there are some very surprising implications.

First, I'll re-summarize the scene here, with the unreliable parts in gold:

Spoiler for summary:

Erika and Battler are at the chapel and just pushed in the final letter for solving the epitaph. Battler observes out loud that Erika has a crappy personality, and Erika admits this openly. Erika goes into how entertaining it will be to see the family squabble over the gold, and begins to talk about her predictions in detail. Dispirited by the revelation that the gold will lead to family infighting, Battler turns his back on her and, not listening to her "mumble on", seems to enter some kind of trance. He sees Kinzo, who points out the way to the gold to Battler. Battler falls out of his trance, just barely catching the end of Erika's spiel. Battler then says he's found the way. Erika expresses surprise that Battler was observant enough to notice the turned lion statue. Battler says that it was Kinzo who showed him.

As for what Battler is lying about, it's how he came to be aware that one of the lion statues was facing a new direction. So then here's the important question that no one seems to think about: What was Battler actually thinking and/or looking at during the above summary's gold section? And whatever it was, why did Battler lie about it?

You could suppose that he was simply contemplating the new revelation that the gold would cause problems in his family, when he coincidentally saw the lion statue turned, then mentioned it to Erika (despite having just realized that finding the gold is actually a bad thing), but since he was a bit mad at her decided to tease her a little bit by lying about having met Kinzo.

Possible, of course, but I think this theory sucks. It has too many weird jumps in Battler's thought process. So, here's the theory I like:

Spoiler for drumroll please:

Battler already knew where the gold was, but was pretending not to in front of Erika.

Thoughts?

Well, it's the best theory that Battler (and also Eva) didn't solve the epitaph by themselves, at least not completely as it had been confirmed by Ryukishi that, if someone where to solve it, no murders would occur.

As people die in EP 3 & 5 is reasonable to assume the epitaph wasn't solved but the solution or part of it was handed to them, possibly in exchange for their cooperation in Eva's case and in Battler's... no idea.

It's possible that the solution was handed to the siblings (Eva, Rudolf and Rosa) by Shannon and they asked Battler to play detective (maybe to avoid arguing among them) so as to 'force grandad to show up' in the belief it would be some sort of prank. He thought of it as a game as he's not suspecting grandfather is dead until, with Erika's help, he realized what the adults were really planning but, by then, it was too late to pull back as, if he hadn't found the gold, Erika would have found it.

After all this would explain why Battler switched from being unable to solve the epitaph in the prior episodes to solving it so easily in Ep 5.



Alternatively Battler might have seen Yasu dressed up as Beato pointing him to the lion. He didn't believe in Beatrice and he didn't want to sound nut saying he saw her so he gave the first apparently rational explanation that came to his mind, that he saw someone else, namely Kinzo.

However i still prefer the idea he already knew the solution. It explain much better how good he is at solving the epitaph when previously he couldn't really advance.

[AC-Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Wanderer

Yeah, that was a fun little debate, and I liked the writer of that monologue... but isn't "dozens fell" an exaggeration of... irresponsible proportions?



I think his revelation was more meta than that. It's more like he realized that it doesn't matter how ridiculous ShKanon is, because if that's the story the author finds meaningful and wants to express, then that's that; and he realized that this very concept was what Ryukishi was expressing with Umineko. Well, that's what I think. Obviously, it seemed difficult for him to put his revelation into words.

ShKanon people, although diverse themselves, all understand Umineko on some kind of meta-level. Anti-ShKanonism is the result of a deficiency in meta-understanding.



I believe it was Kyrie's dad who we're talking about, who was supposedly a decent person and a black sheep of the Sumaderas... Though I doubt he could have protected Ange from the rest of the Sumaderas like Eva could.



No knock, sure, but why no letter? The red syntax seems to imply that the letter at least exists, and there's no need doubt its existence to make the lie interpretation work, as it could have simply been written by anyone in the parlor. In fact, it would be foolish for them to lie about that letter-and-knock event and not have the necessary after-the-fact prop.



Yes, but even then who is eligible to have knocked in the hallway, 24:00 or not?



Since when was Battler all-seeing?



Don't. Those two words are often translated from the same word in the source Japanese.

-------------------------------------

Since the overall intrigue of EP5 is being discussed and there seem to be a few new people around, I'm going to reintroduce a theory I've mentioned before (hopefully in a more organized, more convincing way).

Now, in EP5 there's that scene where Erika and Battler are in the middle of solving the epitaph and searching for the path to the gold, and then Battler has a vision of Kinzo, who points the way for him. But we also know that No person would mistake Ushiromiya Kinzo by sight. So then we know for a fact that when Battler told Erika that "grandfather pointed the way", he was lying.

Nothing special so far, I know, since this logic was all explained as part of the EP5 ura anyway. However, if you think about what Battler was lying about, and the possible reasons for why he would lie about it, there are some very surprising implications.

First, I'll re-summarize the scene here, with the unreliable parts in gold:

Spoiler for summary:

Erika and Battler are at the chapel and just pushed in the final letter for solving the epitaph. Battler observes out loud that Erika has a crappy personality, and Erika admits this openly. Erika goes into how entertaining it will be to see the family squabble over the gold, and begins to talk about her predictions in detail. Dispirited by the revelation that the gold will lead to family infighting, Battler turns his back on her and, not listening to her "mumble on", seems to enter some kind of trance. He sees Kinzo, who points out the way to the gold to Battler. Battler falls out of his trance, just barely catching the end of Erika's spiel. Battler then says he's found the way. Erika expresses surprise that Battler was observant enough to notice the turned lion statue. Battler says that it was Kinzo who showed him.

As for what Battler is lying about, it's how he came to be aware that one of the lion statues was facing a new direction. So then here's the important question that no one seems to think about: What was Battler actually thinking and/or looking at during the above summary's gold section? And whatever it was, why did Battler lie about it?

You could suppose that he was simply contemplating the new revelation that the gold would cause problems in his family, when he coincidentally saw the lion statue turned, then mentioned it to Erika (despite having just realized that finding the gold is actually a bad thing), but since he was a bit mad at her decided to tease her a little bit by lying about having met Kinzo.

Possible, of course, but I think this theory sucks. It has too many weird jumps in Battler's thought process. So, here's the theory I like:

Spoiler for drumroll please:

Battler already knew where the gold was, but was pretending not to in front of Erika.

Thoughts?

He doesn't have to know where the Gold is.
You can actually form a sound theory about Kinzo using that red we got:

battler saw Ushiromiya Kinzo. dead or Alive does not matter No one would mistake him for another.

What I want to say is: he discorvered the corpse or something like that. We even got a hint in that regard:
At the Chapel fight between him and Dlanor, at the point where he uses the golden truth, he states that there is one body that could b kinzo's.

Don't forget the red about Kinzo has actually several consequences:
1st ) You can't msitake any object for Kinzo
2nd) You cant mistake another person for kinzo
3rd) You can't mistake Kinzo for someone else


Yet the red still allows us to have seen his corpse. Don't forget Dlanor couldn't get past the Golden truth. If the body would have never been hinted she could have simply said that the case must not be resolved with clues that were not presented in red and the golden truth would have been weaker than the red one.
As you can't mistake Kinzo for someone else, the corpse batttler talk about during the scene msut have really been Kinzo's.
Otherwise you would have needed him as a body double for someone else.

Edit: Or shanon could have moved the body as if it was alive, it would still not violate the red.

[GreyZone]

Originally Posted by jjblue1

Well, it's the best theory that Battler (and also Eva) didn't solve the epitaph by themselves, at least not completely as it had been confirmed by Ryukishi that, if someone where to solve it, no murders would occur.

As people die in EP 3 & 5 is reasonable to assume the epitaph wasn't solved but the solution or part of it was handed to them, possibly in exchange for their cooperation in Eva's case and in Battler's... no idea.

It's possible that the solution was handed to the siblings (Eva, Rudolf and Rosa) by Shannon and they asked Battler to play detective (maybe to avoid arguing among them) so as to 'force grandad to show up' in the belief it would be some sort of prank. He thought of it as a game as he's not suspecting grandfather is dead until, with Erika's help, he realized what the adults were really planning but, by then, it was too late to pull back as, if he hadn't found the gold, Erika would have found it.

After all this would explain why Battler switched from being unable to solve the epitaph in the prior episodes to solving it so easily in Ep 5.

It would certainly work like that, however it hinges on the assumption that anything shown in EP5 is "less credible" compared to EP1-4.

But you also have to consider that it could be the other way around. That EP5 has much more important details:
'Legend' and 'Turn' were written by Yasuda (although the exact time is hard to determine, since Ange's illness was accounted for, but not Eva's death.) Piece-Battler and Meta-Battler were created on Yasuda's impression of the Battler from 6 years ago, as she didn't see him since then.
If we assume that 'End' was done by 9^9 but based on a witchhunter's forgery, then that witchhunter could have easily gotten good information about the characters by asking their colleagues or class mates.
Therefore Battler's personality in 'Legend' and 'Turn' were a red herring, while his personality in 'End' was much closer to the truth.
"Genius Battler Theory" for EP6 makes this seem more likely too.

But something I doubt a lot of people (if any) considered yet:
The chance for Erika together with Battler to solve the epitaph, or at least to get into the gold room, is higher than 0,1%. This does NOT include the chance of Battler solving the epitaph alone or solving it with groups that do not include Erika

source: logic and

Originally Posted by EP5 Script

`......How many years did it take to solve this one?"`\

`".........That's rude.`@` I only fished through a few hundred Fragments."`@

a chance between "1 in 300" and "1 in 1000" is actually A LOT in the "sea of kakera". Lambda even 'seems' surprised that it isn't worse. Also this probability excludes any solutions that do not involve Erika, since she is the only "reliable detective". Compare this to Clair's "1 in 2578917" chance of existence!

Of course all of this is just my speculation (aside from the one red truth), but I had this stance for a long time and no one argued with me about it, compared to the "ikuko=yasu" theory, where I could even see a balanced tendency and everyone was talking about it and answered my posts regarding it.

Originally Posted by jjblue1

Alternatively Battler might have seen Yasu dressed up as Beato pointing him to the lion. He didn't believe in Beatrice and he didn't want to sound nut saying he saw her so he gave the first apparently rational explanation that came to his mind, that he saw someone else, namely Kinzo.

Well this idea seems quite plausible. it's not the first time for Kinzo to be a representation of "Beatrice".

This always made me wonder... what if one simply takes out Kinzo and replaces these scenes with Yasuda instead?
I mean we often got the impression that "Kinzo = Beatrice", escpacially in EP4, where Battler argued that "someone" could have taken Kinzo's name.

Originally Posted by AC-Phoenix

He doesn't have to know where the Gold is.
You can actually form a sound theory about Kinzo using that red we got:

battler saw Ushiromiya Kinzo. dead or Alive does not matter No one would mistake him for another.

What I want to say is: he discorvered the corpse or something like that. We even got a hint in that regard:
At the Chapel fight between him and Dlanor, at the point where he uses the golden truth, he states that there is one body that could b kinzo's.

Don't forget the red about Kinzo has actually several consequences:
1st ) You can't msitake any object for Kinzo
2nd) You cant mistake another person for kinzo
3rd) You can't mistake Kinzo for someone else


Yet the red still allows us to have seen his corpse. Don't forget Dlanor couldn't get past the Golden truth. If the body would have never been hinted she could have simply said that the case must not be resolved with clues that were not presented in red and the golden truth would have been weaker than the red one.
As you can't mistake Kinzo for someone else, the corpse batttler talk about during the scene msut have really been Kinzo's.
Otherwise you would have needed him as a body double for someone else.

That is interesting. I didn't consider that yet. The only problem is that in this case the person who threw Kinzo's corpse so close to the chapel either wanted it to be found or would just be stupid to not hide it better.



Sorry if something is not understandable, i wrote this in the middle of the night.

[AC-Phoenix]

Originally Posted by GreyZone

That is interesting. I didn't consider that yet. The only problem is that in this case the person who threw Kinzo's corpse so close to the chapel either wanted it to be found or would just be stupid to not hide it better.



Sorry if something is not understandable, i wrote this in the middle of the night.

I was too slow with the edit lol - Shanon could have taken it from its original hiding spot to fool Battler The corpse must have been hidden somewhere after all. And the place was most likely the chapel(As the siblings would under normal circumstances have no chance of entering it due to only one key existing) so the way wouldn't even be that far.

[RandomAvatarFan]

Natsuhi is not the culprit.
Please show some evidence for this.

Let's forget about Knox's rules. Let's try and remember the rules of the game. What was the first thing that Battler ask when Beato introduced the red truth? How did Beato respond?

The limits that were placed on the red were only imposed on the human side. What was the goal of the human side? Back in EP3, Battler couldn't just call in ghost testimony, or use red truth. He had to find evidence.

I believe then that this is so the human won't just try and say random things in red and get it right by guessing. in EP4, Battler tried guessing what his sin was, and Beato just got more upset.

Jumping into EP5's Courtroom of Illusions. The human side was being asked to present evidence which, if it became conclusive, would become elevated to red. Once Battler tried using a red, they accused him of guessing. This isn't just a violation of Knox's rules, but against the rules of how the red was supposed to work.

This doesn't change the fact that Gold came out of nowhere, or that Dlanor definitely cheated in her spar against Gaap. I just don't believe that they were cheating in EP5 with the red-blue answer session in the Court.

[AC-Phoenix]

Originally Posted by RandomAvatarFan

Natsuhi is not the culprit.
Please show some evidence for this.

Let's forget about Knox's rules. Let's try and remember the rules of the game. What was the first thing that Battler ask when Beato introduced the red truth? How did Beato respond?

The limits that were placed on the red were only imposed on the human side. What was the goal of the human side? Back in EP3, Battler couldn't just call in ghost testimony, or use red truth. He had to find evidence.

I believe then that this is so the human won't just try and say random things in red and get it right by guessing. in EP4, Battler tried guessing what his sin was, and Beato just got more upset.

Jumping into EP5's Courtroom of Illusions. The human side was being asked to present evidence which, if it became conclusive, would become elevated to red. Once Battler tried using a red, they accused him of guessing. This isn't just a violation of Knox's rules, but against the rules of how the red was supposed to work.

This doesn't change the fact that Gold came out of nowhere, or that Dlanor definitely cheated in her spar against Gaap. I just don't believe that they were cheating in EP5 with the red-blue answer session in the Court.

Knox rules seem fine since they are the way battler solved everything and became game master.
The point was that Battler was never allowed to use the red in the first place, thats why they accused him of 'guessing'
by guessing they thought of him having just tried to say the sentence in red and he got a lucky shot.
Which is why they made sure virgilia couldn't enter as soon as Battler said that she has told him.

[Wanderer]

Originally Posted by jjblue1

It's possible that the solution was handed to the siblings (Eva, Rudolf and Rosa) by Shannon and they asked Battler to play detective (maybe to avoid arguing among them) so as to 'force grandad to show up' in the belief it would be some sort of prank. He thought of it as a game as he's not suspecting grandfather is dead until, with Erika's help, he realized what the adults were really planning but, by then, it was too late to pull back as, if he hadn't found the gold, Erika would have found it.

After all this would explain why Battler switched from being unable to solve the epitaph in the prior episodes to solving it so easily in Ep 5.

I'm inclined to think Erika was the target of a murder mystery prank. During the part where Battler allegedly saw Kinzo (and allegedly wasn't listening to Erika), Erika was detailing all of her expectations of what would happen with the family after the discovery of the gold. Since we know that Battler spacing out and seeing Kinzo is a lie, in reality he was probably actually paying attention to what she was saying; and, since Erika is genre savvy and a bitch, what she was saying might well have been a prediction of murder. Then Battler could have been wanting to get back at Erika by pranking her with fake murders.

I'm not exactly comfortable with this many 'probablies', 'maybes', and 'could haves', though. Then again, it seems like every comprehensive theory for EP5 requires these kinds of stretches in reasoning.

Originally Posted by jjblue1

Alternatively Battler might have seen Yasu dressed up as Beato pointing him to the lion. He didn't believe in Beatrice and he didn't want to sound nut saying he saw her so he gave the first apparently rational explanation that came to his mind, that he saw someone else, namely Kinzo.

I don't think so. Battler didn't have to say it was Kinzo or Beatrice or anybody at all.

Battler: I've found it... that's the signpost to The Golden Land.
Erika: [...] ......You have pretty good powers of observation.
Battler: Grandfather told me about it.
Erika: Huh? Kinzo-san? Where?
Battler: I'm going. [...]

Although this does bring up an interesting point. Battler had no logical reason to lie about this. None. He could have simply let Erika believe he just happened to notice it. But that's not what he did. Instead he lied... it kind of reminds me how Beatrice would take illogical risks sometimes.

Originally Posted by jjblue1

However i still prefer the idea he already knew the solution. It explain much better how good he is at solving the epitaph when previously he couldn't really advance.

Well, I'm not just talking about knowing the solution exactly, but also knowing the physical route to the room of gold, because at the point I'm talking about they had already solved the epitaph and all that was left was to figure out how to get from the chapel to wherever the underground VIP room was.

If Battler already knows the way, it implies that he has likely already seen the gold itself. For example, Yasu may have already brought him down there much like she did with Krauss and Natsuhi in Our Confessions (whether at gunpoint or not, I don't know).

Originally Posted by AC-Phoenix

battler saw Ushiromiya Kinzo. dead or Alive does not matter No one would mistake him for another.

I can't seriously consider the idea that Kinzo's corpse was... just sitting visible from somewhere just outside of the chapel.

Also, even if it somehow was, it wouldn't account much for Battler's lie. Battler's lie is not just about seeing Kinzo and recognizing him, but also about Kinzo allegedly telling Battler the way.

[AC-Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Wanderer

I'm inclined to think Erika was the target of a murder mystery prank. During the part where Battler allegedly saw Kinzo (and allegedly wasn't listening to Erika), Erika was detailing all of her expectations of what would happen with the family after the discovery of the gold. Since we know that Battler spacing out and seeing Kinzo is a lie, in reality he was probably actually paying attention to what she was saying; and, since Erika is genre savvy and a bitch, what she was saying might well have been a prediction of murder. Then Battler could have been wanting to get back at Erika by pranking her with fake murders.

I'm not exactly comfortable with this many 'probablies', 'maybes', and 'could haves', though. Then again, it seems like every comprehensive theory for EP5 requires these kinds of stretches in reasoning.



I don't think so. Battler didn't have to say it was Kinzo or Beatrice or anybody at all.

Battler: I've found it... that's the signpost to The Golden Land.
Erika: [...] ......You have pretty good powers of observation.
Battler: Grandfather told me about it.
Erika: Huh? Kinzo-san? Where?
Battler: I'm going. [...]

Although this does bring up an interesting point. Battler had no logical reason to lie about this. None. He could have simply let Erika believe he just happened to notice it. But that's not what he did. Instead he lied... it kind of reminds me how Beatrice would take illogical risks sometimes.



Well, I'm not just talking about knowing the solution exactly, but also knowing the physical route to the room of gold, because at the point I'm talking about they had already solved the epitaph and all that was left was to figure out how to get from the chapel to wherever the underground VIP room was.

If Battler already knows the way, it implies that he has likely already seen the gold itself. For example, Yasu may have already brought him down there much like she did with Krauss and Natsuhi in Our Confessions (whether at gunpoint or not, I don't know).



I can't seriously consider the idea that Kinzo's corpse was... just sitting visible from somewhere just outside of the chapel.

Also, even if it somehow was, it wouldn't account much for Battler's lie. Battler's lie is not just about seeing Kinzo and recognizing him, but also about Kinzo allegedly telling Battler the way.

Please re-read my edit it was already there when you posted.
Yasu, or whoever else could have simply made a pointing gesture with the corpse while being hidden behind it. He never #tolf' him the way he pointed somewhere


@ Erika fooled:
Considering how EP 4 mainly shows magic fantasy battles and leaves pretty much every corpse unobserved by battler the answer to EP 4 could indeed be that it was a prank.
This only applies to EP 6 and 4 though.
Ep 4 teaparty's red:
You are all alone on this island. And of course, I am not you. Yet I am here, now, and will kill you
doesn't necessarily contradict that everyone is alive if you replace the answer 'bomb' with explosion. As its source is in a hidden tunnel it would need time to reach battler.
The red about Kanon being dead wouldn't matter either, if you consider how he is just one of Shanon's personalities.

Most of it happened over the phone, it was probably some sick kind of joke kyrie and rudolf thought up. Maybe it was shanonto make him repent. EP 4 is the only episode you can solve without anyone physically dying until the explosion though.

Again though it would only work for Game 4 and game 6 (until Erika 're'-kills them) though.
For the other games someone has to be the culprit as someone was indeed killed.


Game 5:
The problem with this one, leaving whether the letter and knock existed aside, are the reds Virgilia gave us (and I'm not talking about 'Natsuhi is not the culprit').
I'm more referring to the one where she said that no corpse was ever poved after the people died. in combination with the one that everyone can see at a glance that they are indeed dead.
You can start tackling this from the wordgame angle, and say that they died later, the red was given out in the middle of the game though.
So game 5 was definitely not a prank.

[Wanderer]

Originally Posted by AC-Phoenix

Please re-read my edit it was already there when you posted.
Yasu, or whoever else could have simply made a pointing gesture with the corpse while being hidden behind it. He never #tolf' him the way he pointed somewhere

You can't be serious.

Originally Posted by AC-Phoenix

@ Erika fooled:
Considering how EP 4 mainly shows magic fantasy battles and leaves pretty much every corpse unobserved by battler the answer to EP 4 could indeed be that it was a prank.

This only applies to EP 6 and 4 though.
Ep 4 teaparty's red:
You are all alone on this island. And of course, I am not you. Yet I am here, now, and will kill you
doesn't necessarily contradict that everyone is alive if you replace the answer 'bomb' with explosion. As its source is in a hidden tunnel it would need time to reach battler.

Battler sees George's corpse in the main story of EP4, and everyone else's corpse in the EP4 Tea Party (excluding Kanon of course).

Originally Posted by AC-Phoenix

The red about Kanon being dead wouldn't matter either, if you consider how he is just one of Shanon's personalities.

Except that he's the 9th victim, implying 8 people died before he did...

Originally Posted by AC-Phoenix

Game 5:
The problem with this one, leaving whether the letter and knock existed aside, are the reds Virgilia gave us (and I'm not talking about 'Natsuhi is not the culprit').
I'm more referring to the one where she said that no corpse was ever poved after the people died. in combination with the one that everyone can see at a glance that they are indeed dead.
You can start tackling this from the wordgame angle, and say that they died later, the red was given out in the middle of the game though.
So game 5 was definitely not a prank.

Virgilia didn't provide that red. It was the Seven Sisters of Purgatory.

anyone looking at George, Jessica, Maria, Rosa, or Genji's corpses could confirm at a glance that they are dead doesn't apply to people playing dead or otherwise alive. The red says you can't mistake a dead person for a live one, but you can still mistake a living person for a dead one.

[haguruma]

Originally Posted by AC-Phoenix

You can start tackling this from the wordgame angle, and say that they died later, the red was given out in the middle of the game though.
So game 5 was definitely not a prank.

When exactly was the Red about their corpses given exactly? I went over the manga again, because I can't access the VN right now, and it seems the bodies vanish from the rooms before the red statements about the corpses are given. And regarding wordplay...all of Umineko is about wordplay and writing, so finding the trick hidden in such things shouldn't be that surprising.

Another thing I found when I went over EP5 notes and the manga again:
In the little argument Battler and Erika have in front of Kinzo's study they mention two rather famous mystery novels, The Astrology Murder Case (占星術殺人事件; released in English under The Tokyo Zodiac Murders) and The Non-Serial Murder Case (不連続殺人事件) which both bear interesting similarities to Umineko in general.

The first one deals with the murder of a wealthy family head murdered in a locked room study, who left behind a note detailing the creation of the perfect being "Azoth" through the sacrifice of the virgin women of his family. A few weeks after his death the women die on a trip to a holy mountain and are found dismembered and with one body part missing.
The solution bears an interesting connection to Umineko as well:

Spoiler for Solution:

The murderer is in fact the family heads daughter from his first marriage who killed her father and the other women for treating her mother so poorly she ended up having to sell cigarettes on the street.
She was thought to be among the 6 victims of the Azoth, but in fact assembled the chopped up pieces of 5 bodies in a way that made it appear as if there were 6 corpses. She then fled Tokyo and changed her name, not to be found for over 40 years.

The second one is about a series of murders surrounding the wealthy Utagawa family. Several strange individuals were invited to the house through apparently faked invitations and 8 murders occur that don't seem to follow any reason or motive, earning this case the name of the Non-Serial Murder Case.
This solution is interesting especially in connection to EP5:

Spoiler for Solution:

The culprit is revealed to be the wife of the son next in line to inherit the family; she was after the family fortune and wanted to kill all other successors off. In order to hide her crime she started by murdering somebody unconnected to the family and continued killing people in between who she suspected of knowing too much.
She also used sex and blackmail to make people help her and pretended to hate that person on every possible occasion. The obvious lie was only concealed on a narrative level by the number of strange guests invited to the house.

I would really like to go over all of Umineko again and find which other works were mentioned or at least hinted at...

[GreyZone]

Originally Posted by Wanderer

Except that he's the 9th victim, implying 8 people died before he did...

That does not work:

Remember this? My name is Furudo Erika i am the 18th human on Rokkenjima...... although there are 17 people

After this case any use of an ordinal number seems very untrustworthy.

[haguruma]

Originally Posted by GreyZone

That does not work:

Remember this? My name is Furudo Erika i am the 18th human on Rokkenjima...... although there are 17 people

After this case any use of an ordinal number seems very untrustworthy.

I think both of you are kind of off...at least to my understanding.
Ordinal numbers do have a certain value, but they have to be read in the exact context they are given.

Out of the 5 people including Kyrie, he was the first to die. In other words this means that he is the 9th victim.
Nowhere does it say that 8 people DIED before him, just that he would be considered the 9th victim (in Japanese giseisha) of whatever is happening.
That the order of sacrifices and the order of the actual murders is not necessarily the same was already implied in EP2 through the sacrifices from 4th to 8th being Shannon-Gohda-George-Nanjo-Kumasawa, while the depicted order of deaths in the narrative was Nanjo-Kumasawa-Gohda-George-Shannon. It was then again highlighted in EP3 by Eva Beatrice jumbling sacrificial order and order of death of Kyrie-Rudolph-Hideyoshi around.

The Erika problem is similar in how numbers are meant to deceive in the way they are used. The Red Erika gives is:
I am the visitor, the 18th human of Rokkenjima!!
Which merely tells us that in addition to the 17 human characters that seem to exist on Rokkenjima there was an uninvited visitor. It could have been Furudo Erika or an old woman who brought cookies for Kumasawa and did not make it back. It doesn't matter though because,
Even if we accepted you...we are 17.

Actually looking back on EP1 it would only be logical (intended by Ryukishi or not) for that space to exist because, as given in the endroll of EP1, the case was later also known as "The Killing of the 18 on Rokkenjima".

[qno2]

Originally Posted by Greyzone

My name is Furudo Erika i am the 18th human on Rokkenjima...... although there are 17 people

Some take it as the "role" of her character: she is introduced as the "guest" and "18th human", since the narrative itself introduced her as such. You could say it was the character description when she applied for the role. Even though there are only 17 with her...
Generally I go with this one too.

It has also been argued not too long ago that it might mean "the 18th human-character shown to be on Rokkenjima in this tale of 1986". Kanon was never a fully independent human.. question is, who is the 17th then? Maybe Kinzo...he did live at some point, even though not in 1986 - but he was portrayed as being alive for four episodes. "He is the 17th human(-character shown as "part of the human-side" in this story on Rokkenjima 1986), the head of the Ushiromiya household, portrayed as being alive but ultimately dead from the start." Not too sure about how to explain the 17th human though; even though Kinzo is a character based on a human it just opens up too many uncertainties.

Originally Posted by Wanderer

Yeah, that was a fun little debate, and I liked the writer of that monologue... but isn't "dozens fell" an exaggeration of... irresponsible proportions?

Sure, I was exaggerating and I'm not always entirely serious in what I say. 3 from their side participated as far as I remember. And all three 'fell', though one of them seemed to make a comeback later (due to the EP1 1st Twilight). It's kinda sad that the argument never really got off. There was a bit about the alternate solution to the Logic Error and the implications of what Yasu wanted to portray but then it ... didn't really go anywhere. I really liked the atmosphere though, as opposed to the one on Youtube.

Originally Posted by Wanderer

Since when was Battler all-seeing?

He is all-seeing whenever you use irony. 'cause he isn't, even with the Detective's Authority. Was just surprised that a solution like "the gun was hidden behind the shelf" would be allowed with an (incompetent) Detective around, but they never entered the room after all so I can't argue back and will have to accept it.

Though the picture of Shannon franctically smashing her head repeatedly into the stake, barely able to keep the stake stable on the night table, crying in pain, seemed to portray her desperation and anguish pretty well. Pity... oh well.

Originally Posted by haguruma

Actually looking back on EP1 it would only be logical (intended by Ryukishi or not) for that space to exist because, as given in the endroll of EP1, the case was later also known as "The Killing of the 18 on Rokkenjima".

Actually, when did they start calling it like this? Following the incident or after the first bottle was made public?

[Renall]

Probably the publication of the message bottles. The police presumably didn't know how many people there were, and only likely knew who was "supposed" to be there in part (for example, I doubt the police had any way of knowing which servants were supposed to be on duty other than the vague testimony of servants who knew it was their days off).

The message bottles advance 18 apparent humans, including Shannon, Kanon, and Kinzo, all of whom appear to be alive. When it became popular to "realize" that Kinzo was probably long dead, it opened a space for an 18th person in the minds of writers.

I think this is an example of how changes made to the story in-progress may have damaged the flow of the narrative. Kinzo being confirmed dead in ep4 and Beatrice lowering the person count is not as elegant as not confirming his death until ep5, introducing Erika beforehand, and announcing that everything is just the same as before. Sure, lots of people already knew, but that's no reason to screw around with it?

Honestly, the whole show trial segment would've been a bit more punchy had Kinzo's death only finally been confirmed at around that time.

[haguruma]

Originally Posted by Renall

I think this is an example of how changes made to the story in-progress may have damaged the flow of the narrative. Kinzo being confirmed dead in ep4 and Beatrice lowering the person count is not as elegant as not confirming his death until ep5, introducing Erika beforehand, and announcing that everything is just the same as before. Sure, lots of people already knew, but that's no reason to screw around with it?

It sure would have worked better if Proto-Erika/Virgilius had been introduced around EP3 already. I kind of reasoned around an empty slot being filled by somebody else for quite a long time, basically since they introduced Eva-Beato and made the whole "I stand for somebody, but not necessarily for a definitive person" plot a thing.

I kind of got what Erika was about from the very moment she was introduced somehow, or at least I was thinking in the direction that was decided upon at the end of EP6, so I can't say that I think it's a bad plot element. Still I agree with you that it could have been handled
a) more elegantly and
b) in a way that serves the plot much more

Like this the whole "we are 18 but 17" thing is just like a neat little afterword that either confirms the suspicions you had or has no impact beyond the tension it holds in that very scene. Erika's existence was that of a half-life anyway so, nothing lost, nothing gained...

Originally Posted by qno2

Actually, when did they start calling it like this? Following the incident or after the first bottle was made public?

Well, going by the endroll of EP1:

Many years later.
At the pier of a neighboring island, a fisherman pulled ashore a mysterious wine-bottle adrift in the waves.
Inside, tightly packed and written in the smallest letters, there was a bundle of detail laden pages stuffed inside.
That very thing was….this story.
People first learned of the events, surrounding the mysterious and strange two days that started on the enigmatic 4th October 1986, through these pages.

After this the incident became known as “The Rokkenjima Mass Murder Incident” or “The Killing of the 18 on Rokkenjima”, but among the people with a taste for the fantastic in this world it was passed on as “The Witch Legend Serial Murder Case”.

Lovers of the occult, insisting on it being the remains of this island being plunged into an immoral ritual, kept propagating explanations of these mystery-filled two days, adorning them with grotesque imageries.
But, no matter what explanation it was, not one of them arrived at the truth of this incident.

And the pages from the wine-bottle as well, while they tell of this incident full of riddles, they don’t tell the truth.
No...the author of these pages might not have known the truth either.

So it was after at least the first message bottle was found.

[qno2]

Still odd that they're talking about the "killing of the 18" when they talk about the 'incident', considering Eva survived. Unless the police had reason to believe that 19 were there. Guess you can still claim that it's purely referring to "the incident portrayed in the story", not "the actual incident on Rokkenjima 1986", meh.
Well... I still hold the opinion that Ryu came up with our current prime, or what we at least call that way, when he rewrote EP3.


Looking at the last two lines you quoted... wow, we should've known from the very start where our journey is going. Damn genre-conventions making us believe ominous letters about mass murder!

[Renall]

Originally Posted by haguruma

I kind of got what Erika was about from the very moment she was introduced somehow, or at least I was thinking in the direction that was decided upon at the end of EP6, so I can't say that I think it's a bad plot element. Still I agree with you that it could have been handled
a) more elegantly and
b) in a way that serves the plot much more

Like this the whole "we are 18 but 17" thing is just like a neat little afterword that either confirms the suspicions you had or has no impact beyond the tension it holds in that very scene. Erika's existence was that of a half-life anyway so, nothing lost, nothing gained...

Probably. My main issue is just they ended up going "The number is lower... wait now it's back where it was because of Erika!" It kind of spoiled what could otherwise be an appropriately confusing trick that would be clear to everybody who had already figured it out (not that it wasn't reasonably clear to begin with).

In all honesty, lowering the count then raising it again makes Shkanon more suspicious when you get to ep6's conclusion, because now you know exactly who you're not supposed to be looking at (Kinzo or Erika). For example, had it been more ambiguous some people might've read the ending as a mere blanket denial of Erika, rather than a giant flashing neon sign indicating two of the other characters are one.

And yes I agree with you that had proto-Erika been implemented when Ryukishi had initially meant to that the flow might've been fine the way it was, but it would've also rather significantly changed what ep5 and probably ep6 became too, so who knows how that would've gone.