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Old 2013-01-30, 20:59   Link #281
Vallen Chaos Valiant
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Originally Posted by AnimeFan188 View Post
Which means it can take potshots well into Israeli airspace from Lebanon. It can
also reach higher than a shoulder-fired SAM.

There's no way the Israelis are going to let Hezbollah have something like that if
they can help it.
So, what you are saying is that Israel is going to control what Syria can and can't buy from Russia? That doesn't sound very likely. Even if Assad loses power, Russia isn't going to pack up and give up. They would try to do business with the new administration.
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Old 2013-01-30, 21:34   Link #282
Ithekro
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Rates as national security considering Israel and Syria are not exactly friends anyway.
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Old 2013-01-30, 22:43   Link #283
AnimeFan188
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Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant View Post
So, what you are saying is that Israel is going to control what Syria can and can't buy from Russia? That doesn't sound very likely. Even if Assad loses power, Russia isn't going to pack up and give up. They would try to do business with the new administration.
They'll keep it from being transferred to Hezbollah is what I'm saying.
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Old 2013-01-30, 23:32   Link #284
Vallen Chaos Valiant
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Originally Posted by AnimeFan188 View Post
They'll keep it from being transferred to Hezbollah is what I'm saying.
You are talking about the aim. You are not talking about the method.

Isreal has two choices; bomb Syria, or invade it. They can't order America to do something like with Iran, as Russia is too powerful. If Israel get a big head and decide to take on Russia, I would love to watch them try.
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Old 2013-01-30, 23:39   Link #285
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Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant View Post
That doesn't sound very likely. Even if Assad loses power, Russia isn't going to pack up and give up. They would try to do business with the new administration.
And who is going to be the new administration? That's some naive thinking there.
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Old 2013-01-30, 23:42   Link #286
monir
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Like Sumeragi, I'm also lost. VCB, please elaborate!
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Old 2013-01-31, 00:09   Link #287
LeoXiao
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I wonder if he doesn't have a latent suicide wish, but is more creative than most of his countrymen. Either way, respect.
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Old 2013-01-31, 00:15   Link #288
Vallen Chaos Valiant
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Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
And who is going to be the new administration? That's some naive thinking there.
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Originally Posted by monir View Post
Like Sumeragi, I'm also lost. VCB, please elaborate!
I am assuming, and I know that's a big assumption, that the United States would stay far away from Syria in the foreseeable future. We don't know how it would end, but it is plausible Assad might be convinced to step down in exchange for Russian protection. And that would mean Russia became a broker for resolving the civil war and being a continued patron of the new Syria.

I just don't see Russian ending their Syrian involvement. With or without Assad.
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Old 2013-01-31, 00:19   Link #289
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With US focusing more on China, I don't think they want to step on Russia's turf and let Russia play the "enemy of my enemy " card.
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Old 2013-01-31, 00:33   Link #290
monir
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant View Post
I am assuming, and I know that's a big assumption, that the United States would stay far away from Syria in the foreseeable future. We don't know how it would end, but it is plausible Assad might be convinced to step down in exchange for Russian protection. And that would mean Russia became a broker for resolving the civil war and being a continued patron of the new Syria.

I just don't see Russian ending their Syrian involvement. With or without Assad.
Thanks for the peek into your thoughts. It might have become a tad bit complicated with Israel's involvement. If the reason for the strike is indeed true, then the Assad regime just rang a lot of alarm bells all around the world. He might not even get the chance to take the Russian invitation. I also think that Russia's interest in Syria, regional/tactical/economical, interest are overplayed.
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Old 2013-01-31, 00:34   Link #291
Vallen Chaos Valiant
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Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
With US focusing more on China, I don't think they want to step on Russia's turf and let Russia play the "enemy of my enemy " card.
That's what I mean. Russia is the one in control. And that means whatever Israel does to Syria, they risk annoying someone who is out of their league.
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Old 2013-01-31, 00:37   Link #292
Sumeragi
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Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant View Post
I just don't see Russian ending their Syrian involvement. With or without Assad.
Russia may not want to end things, but would the new "administration" want such involvement?
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Old 2013-01-31, 00:43   Link #293
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Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
Russia may not want to end things, but would the new "administration" want such involvement?
Who else can they get affordable weapons like long-range SAMs from? Who else would even sell them such things beside maybe China?
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Old 2013-01-31, 00:46   Link #294
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I think people are missing the point: We're assuming we'll get a repeat of Libya, but for all purposes I see even more factionalism and radical Islam groups festering in a post-Assad Syria, meaning there is no guarantee we'll not get a anti-Russian/foreign government in the end.
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Old 2013-01-31, 00:48   Link #295
Vallen Chaos Valiant
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Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
Russia may not want to end things, but would the new "administration" want such involvement?
Wouldn't they?

Sure, you might argue that anti-Assad people might look upon the current Assad ally with suspicion, but in the end there is nothing personal about Russia's support of the Syrian government. Russia wasn't a Shia supporter, just a supporter of the government. And that means if the government became Sunni, it makes no difference to Putin.

I do make the point that if Russia was able to resolve the civil war diplomatically, then they would have much more political influence in the new Syria than if the affair ended in blood and tears.

If Assad died violently in a gun fight, I don't think anyone knows what would happen.

Quote:
I think people are missing the point: We're assuming we'll get a repeat of Libya, but for all purposes I see even more factionalism and radical Islam groups festering in a post-Assad Syria, meaning there is no guarantee we'll not get a anti-Russian/foreign government in the end.
If people want radical Islam then that's their choice. The same way I look upon radical Christianity in America. There is no reason for a new government to be anti-Russia; not automatically anyway. Saudi Arabia is extremely religious, but look how friendly they are to the USA.
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Old 2013-01-31, 00:54   Link #296
monir
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Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
I think people are missing the point: We're assuming we'll get a repeat of Libya, but for all purposes I see even more factionalism and radical Islam groups festering in a post-Assad Syria, meaning there is no guarantee we'll not get a anti-Russian/foreign government in the end.
Considering the staggering number of casualties thanks to the infighting, factionalism and unrest is assured for unknown duration into the future regardless of the outcome. Either way, the Russian shouldn't be too troubled by any anti-Russian sentiment to establish similar kind of status quo with the heads of any new regime.
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Old 2013-01-31, 00:55   Link #297
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Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant View Post
Wouldn't they?
*Facepalm*

I suggest you look at exactly what kind of radical Islam groups I'm talking about (never mind the political situation of Syria) before making such naive assumptions.
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Old 2013-01-31, 00:58   Link #298
Vallen Chaos Valiant
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Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
*Facepalm*

I suggest you look at exactly what kind of radical Islam groups I'm talking about (never mind the political situation of Syria) before making such naive assumptions.
If the Taliban was able to became an ally of the United States and get a heroic movie staring Silvester Stallone made about them, there is no reason why a similar group can't cozy up to Russia. Being radical and/or religious does not prevent anyone from making allies.
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Old 2013-01-31, 01:28   Link #299
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Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant View Post
If the Taliban was able to became an ally of the United States and get a heroic movie staring Silvester Stallone made about them, there is no reason why a similar group can't cozy up to Russia. Being radical and/or religious does not prevent anyone from making allies.
And .. would a group cozying up to Russia end the conflict there? Look at the Taliban, look at the groups fighting in Syria?
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Old 2013-01-31, 01:54   Link #300
Vallen Chaos Valiant
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And .. would a group cozying up to Russia end the conflict there? Look at the Taliban, look at the groups fighting in Syria?
Fighting will pause eventually. Whether Assad would be running the country by then is irrelevant. Russia is responsible for influencing the nation one way or another.

There are many cruel governments in the past, present and future. We like to imagine that they are all Bond Villains, but they are not. They are just your usual warlords. They can be dealed with peacefully.

I used to be worried about religious extremism. But then once I saw how religiously insane America is, I realised there is no point worrying about tiny countries in the Middle East. It's all a matter of prospective.
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