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Old 2013-04-12, 08:36   Link #121
AmeNoJaku
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Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Work in Europe... imminent :(
@Mentar: Some Germans disagree with you, but that's a good thing, like Cypriots agreeing with you... discussing our opinions and the way others perceive them is not BS, but constructive discussion IMHO, unless we decide to curse each other, because for whatever reason we can not agree unconditionally to the ultimate truth one of us believes in

@sneaker: That was expected, after what all eurozone finance minister unanimously agreed in... I just hope that it was just a Cypriot/German/Dutch momentary stupidity, and not some idiotic long term plan to dissolve Europe as an emerging political entity

Look guys from my perspective (based on perceiving events first hands from UK, and later from JP, and from narratives from Germany and Greece), what Merkel administration imposed to solve the crisis outside Germany (because internally it did exactly the opposite) has failed everywhere. The only country that exited the crisis was Iceland, that was not subject to those conservative policies. The problem is not euro, EU, etc. It's the policies of the sponsors of the current German government. Thankfully, unlike mid-war Germany, this time there is internal opposition to these destructive policies, fortunately it won't be too late, since Germany got destroyed both times it pursued this route, and thankfully for its people some of its conquerors forgave their debts.
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Old 2013-04-12, 10:00   Link #122
sneaker
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Again, the cause of the problem is blamed on someone else. It was not Germany who bankrupted Cyprus, they bankrupted themselves. Germany didn't ruin their economy, their economy sucked and failed because of that. Now instead of simply letting them go down the drain they are helping them through guarantees(*) (even if it's not out of pure altruism). If they think this austerity policy is wrong they are free to not make agreements with the Troika and do their own thing(**). But then they would see that they'd still have zero money, simply because they are bankrupt, only that they then wouldn't be able to blame it on someone else "forcing austerity on them". If I'm out of money I can't keep up my lifestyle - that has nothing to do austerity.

(*) Very risky guarantees, that is. Many experts don't actually believe they will be able to repay them, so part of that is like a gift. A gift on top of the EU subventions Cyprus has been receiving for years anyways.
(**) It's not like they didn't try. They stopped all contacts with the Troika/EU for about a week and tried to negotiate with Russia.
Now, neither Russia nor the U.K. do anything to help them. Not a single dime. Why aren't they burning Russian and British flags in the streets? It's like a hobo spitting on someone who threw 5 Euro into his hat, but ignoring the others who gave nothing. If only he gave 20 instead of 5 Euro he would be able to have a nice meal in a restaurant like he used to, after all.
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Old 2013-04-12, 13:38   Link #123
Anh_Minh
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Originally Posted by AmeNoJaku View Post
I should have chosen another title, but current events got the better of me, in hope of some hope from the union

Anyway, more sad news, Schauble ridiculed the Greek FM about the unpaid Nazi War reparation, Cyprus needs about the double, maybe triple the money to execute Germany's bank rescue plan, after they one-shot the country's economy, and an obscure euro-group directive was brought up by the usual suspects about levying depositors in fear of a French bank collapse... all these from German media, in between

@Ahn_Minh: Whining You misunderstand observations and criticism from a perspective that the majority here does not want to listen to for whining... it is the easiest thing in the world to discard other perspectives as whining, trolling, etc... that is just evading constructive dialogue... or to put it in the opposite perspective from mine, despite personally disagreeing with the point of view from most capitalist-fanboys&girls/communist-haters here, I find their opinions (stripped of insults and degradation of counter-arguments, instead of constructively arguing against them) constructive after filtering them of useless emotions, since I don't abide to either ideologies
See, you're doing it again. You've made extraordinary claims that put the blame for Cyprus' situation on Germany, and instead of explaining why it'd be their fault, you hid behind the "unpopularity" of your opinion and made doomsday predictions about Germany's similarity to North Korea (which you also have yet to explain) and another round of World War.

Was Cyprus alone in its questionable practices? No. But it doesn't matter.

It's like all of the Eurozone countries are alcoholic, surrounded by other alcoholics. It's finally caught up with Cyprus. It's lost its job, its wife left him, and the landlord is banging on the door clamoring for the rent.

So other countries, who've held on to their job (though their boss regularly yells at them for coming in late and hungover, so it's not precisely rosy) propose to chip in so Cyprus will have enough if it sells some of its stuff and promises to go through a detox cure, and what response do they get? "Fuck you Nazi bastards! I want twice as much money! And don't you dare tell me what to do with it! If I want to buy booze it's my business!"

Maybe going cold turkey isn't the very best thing to do. I don't know, I'm neither an addictologist not an economist. But it's got to be better than refusing to admit the problem and merrily keep drinking.

And one thing to remember is that neither Germany nor any other country put a gun to Cyprus' head and forced them to climb into the bottle.
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Old 2013-04-14, 02:30   Link #124
AmeNoJaku
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I guess Chomsky is also some weird guy making correct predictions that you have eventually to rationalize in order to fit into your short-term world views
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Old 2013-04-14, 02:42   Link #125
willx
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Hahahahahahaha .. are we seriously quoting Noam Chomsky now? Someone grab the popcorn. By the way, for this topic, your "location" message is very appropriate.

Europe: Vacation's over!
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Old 2013-04-14, 02:54   Link #126
AmeNoJaku
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@willx: ... you summarized my problem with the so called popular belief... when you boys hear a well-founded counter-argument, you try to ridicule it instead of 1) listening to it, 2) understanding it, 3) thinking about its validity and then 4) adapting or discarding it... on the other hand when something sounds convenient like Merkozy, Schauble, Hollande or that dutch golden-boy heading the euro-group, it is an instant ultimate truth like your popes, rabbis or imams

In other words instead of diverging the discussion to lowly personal attacks, it would be far more productive (yet unpopular) to actually offer a constructive counter-argument, instead of your popcorn

And if Chomsky is heard while eating popcorn, Paul Krugman said the same 2 years ago
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Old 2013-04-14, 03:15   Link #127
willx
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I'm laughing because he's a professor linguistics and philosophy and is widely known for having particularly "questionable" views on capitalism. At least Paul Krugman is an economist -- albeit one who's views I tend to agree with more than disagree .. but still unfortunately has a idealistic perspective on how humans actually behave in real life. Heck, Noam was the one that thought specifically about the problems related to "State Capitalism" -- even he has admitted that his views "are fairly traditional anarchist ones, with origins in the Enlightenment and classical liberalism"

I'm very well educated and generally paid to think critically about problems. If you're going to bring out Noam Chomsky, then I'm sure you're well aware of his particular leanings? Your reaction to my response would be similar if I suddenly mentioned "Reagen" and "Thatcher" in the same sentence and expected people to have zero response.

By calling on the name of a particular "luminary" albeit no matter how controversial, it is you that has brought the discussion to one of the celebrity sounding board. I had a very long discussion with people about the economic situation in the U.S. and around the world on more than one occasion which can be simply derived from logic and understanding of financial systems, international trade and logic. Not to invoke Godwin's law, but I wouldn't be surprised if people raised eyebrows if I mentioned Hitler? So basically -- You mentioned Noam Chomsky and somehow expected people not to react? I'm not sure that's sensible. What in particular was your intent?

If I summarized your problem with popular belief, then you have summarized my problem with people having righteous indignation and fierce opinions about topics with which they can only possibly be tangentially be informed about and otherwise hold a haughty stance while they veer away from popular belief so much that you simply cannot see why what you view as a "single" popular belief is actually a myriad set of views from individuals with diverse backgrounds and perspectives yet closely mirror each other .. and why? Because those thoughts have a damn good reason for being similar or being "popular" -- because fundamentally much of it makes sense.
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Old 2013-04-15, 04:49   Link #128
Mentar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AmeNoJaku View Post
@Mentar: Some Germans disagree with you, but that's a good thing, like Cypriots agreeing with you... discussing our opinions and the way others perceive them is not BS, but constructive discussion IMHO, unless we decide to curse each other, because for whatever reason we can not agree unconditionally to the ultimate truth one of us believes in
What is this confused sophism?

If I say that the moon consists of green cheese, then this is BS. And if my colleague also says so, it's still BS. This "some are of a different opinion" defense is very unconvincing. If you want to defend your point, do it yourself, don't hide behind anonymous others. I really hate this technique with a passion, it's the same nonsense Fox News is pulling off all the time.

Cyprus' economic disaster was NOT caused by German bankers, like you claim. It was entirely self-inflicted, and now they demand that they're bailed out - but since they don't like the terms of the bailout, we're Nazis. Lovely.

Quote:
@sneaker: That was expected, after what all eurozone finance minister unanimously agreed in... I just hope that it was just a Cypriot/German/Dutch momentary stupidity, and not some idiotic long term plan to dissolve Europe as an emerging political entity
How about you grow up some and stop ignoring that you can't be living beyond your means forever? That there needs to be a balance between income and expenses?

Cyprus has been living beyond their means for a longer while (particularly their banks), and now they need to scale back. That's the way it is. Handing an alcoholic more booze in order not to let him suffer so much is no solution at all. There WILL be pain now, it can't be helped. Things will get better in 2-3 years, but until then, it's gonna be pretty painful. DEAL WITH IT.

Alternatively, drop out of the Euro, give your creditors the middle finger and start living on your own. Fine with me. Just don't come crying that your houses suddenly are worth only a fraction of what they were before, and that imports are suddenly hellishly expensive, and that you can NOT get loans for next to nothing anymore.

Quote:
Look guys from my perspective (based on perceiving events first hands from UK, and later from JP, and from narratives from Germany and Greece), what Merkel administration imposed to solve the crisis outside Germany (because internally it did exactly the opposite) has failed everywhere.
No. Ireland is recovering nicely already. And in 2-3 years the rest of Europe will be through the worst, too. Germany had this painful phase 10 years ago, and we're sitting quite pretty now. It takes some time though.

Quote:
The problem is not euro, EU, etc. It's the policies of the sponsors of the current German government. Thankfully, unlike mid-war Germany, this time there is internal opposition to these destructive policies, fortunately it won't be too late, since Germany got destroyed both times it pursued this route, and thankfully for its people some of its conquerors forgave their debts.
You really don't know much about German history, do you? It was _inflation_ - caused by printing massive amounts of money - which caused the economy to collapse, leading to the economic turmoil which eventually Hitler rode to power. This is exactly why "living within your means" and "fighting inflation" is hardwired into the German psyche.
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Old 2013-04-15, 10:47   Link #129
AmeNoJaku
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Join Date: Apr 2012
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>> What is this confused sophism?

Hm, I guess basic thinking might appear confusing to those faithfully and unquestionably accepting one economic policy like some Abrahamic religion

But anyway, I will just urge you to consider one thing, while remembering another... let's start with freshening up your memory with all the criticism I have post here too about how UK, Ireland, USA, and Cyprus banking systems are opportunistic and vulnerable to short mismanagement (i.e. a 5-year-term of an eligibly communist president) as well as an outside disaster (i.e. a 5-year-term of Merkozy)... now on to the some thinking on your part... when the Irish economy was shrunk 20%, but then expands 20%, would that put it back into the same level? Just saying, ignore that all this math created thousands of miserable people for several years, even if we are to believe as faithfully as you do those conservative messiahs, does the math even work for you

In the end, we should agree in one thing... Cyprus like Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and as of late France, Belgium and Luxembourg have to find a mechanism in order to eject the only country that fights against the common currency, the economic and political union from which has boomed its economic bubble
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Old 2013-04-15, 12:49   Link #130
Solace
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Originally Posted by Mentar View Post
No. Ireland is recovering nicely already. And in 2-3 years the rest of Europe will be through the worst, too. Germany had this painful phase 10 years ago, and we're sitting quite pretty now. It takes some time though.
Is Ireland actually recovering, or are we just pointing at a few indicators that look positive and claiming success? I'm genuinely curious, because I can't seem to find any actual figures on this. My searching is just turning up a bunch of news articles, editorials, and blogs claiming success with little evidence to back it up. While slamming Greece at the same time, generally.

I'm unconvinced austerity is actually the solution. Certainly binged economies must face some contraction and restructuring, but I'm not seeing how bailing out banks and telling the public to suffer has actually led to any improvement. I'm coming from a US perspective on this of course, where austerity is failing the public while rewarding the financial industry nicely.
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Old 2013-04-15, 12:54   Link #131
willx
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^ Jobs data does not agree with you sir. That and the QE infinity garbadlygook v2.1312311 has propped up housing prices.. due to ridiculous levels of liquidity. I'm more concerned about investments going way too far out the risk curve. Just had a meeting a few days ago with a senior relationship lender from <Major Financial Institution> that covers corporate clients in the North East as well as Canada for "big" transactions. Lending and liquidity bubble is "full on" ..
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Old 2013-04-15, 13:05   Link #132
SaintessHeart
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Originally Posted by willx View Post
^ Jobs data does not agree with you sir. That and the QE infinity garbadlygook v2.1312311 has propped up housing prices.. due to ridiculous levels of liquidity. I'm more concerned about investments going way too far out the risk curve. Just had a meeting a few days ago with a senior relationship lender from <Major Financial Institution> that covers corporate clients in the North East as well as Canada for "big" transactions. Lending and liquidity bubble is "full on" ..
And they are still lending. Not just North East. Everywhere else.

Heck even my government seems to keep throwing money at us to breed. Where the heck does that come from when it used to come from investing around the world?

And now investing around the world wrought little returns almost everywhere, that credit scheme isn't as sound as it looks.
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Old 2013-04-15, 13:15   Link #133
Solace
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Quote:
Originally Posted by willx View Post
^ Jobs data does not agree with you sir. That and the QE infinity garbadlygook v2.1312311 has propped up housing prices.. due to ridiculous levels of liquidity. I'm more concerned about investments going way too far out the risk curve. Just had a meeting a few days ago with a senior relationship lender from <Major Financial Institution> that covers corporate clients in the North East as well as Canada for "big" transactions. Lending and liquidity bubble is "full on" ..
Jobs data is awful, and the QE has fueled a huge bubble among the financiers. We're set for a bunch of bubbles to pop now, which is scary. Student loan debt has now passed public credit card debt, housing prices never actually reset, inflation being kept artificially low doesn't matter since wages are not keeping up with cost of living, etc.

I honestly can't see how anyone can look at the US economic picture and see anything good about it.
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Old 2013-04-15, 13:22   Link #134
monsta666
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Solace View Post
Is Ireland actually recovering, or are we just pointing at a few indicators that look positive and claiming success? I'm genuinely curious, because I can't seem to find any actual figures on this. My searching is just turning up a bunch of news articles, editorials, and blogs claiming success with little evidence to back it up. While slamming Greece at the same time, generally.

I'm unconvinced austerity is actually the solution. Certainly binged economies must face some contraction and restructuring, but I'm not seeing how bailing out banks and telling the public to suffer has actually led to any improvement. I'm coming from a US perspective on this of course, where austerity is failing the public while rewarding the financial industry nicely.
Greece is certainly not getting better and has experienced six years of recession with the final quarter of 2012 showing an annual decline rate of 6% GDP. Unemployment up to 27% while youth unemployment is a whooping 61%. Greece is truly in a depression no matter how you cut it and is likely to get worse even by the biggest cornucopians.

Ireland is a better picture and sort of mirrors the "recovery" of the British economy (if you can call it that). Basically Britain, like Ireland, has gone nowhere in the last two years as each quarter has either seen low growth (below 0.5%) or slow contraction (below -1%) with the average growth rate being somewhere around 0% for that period. Unemployment is a bit higher in Ireland I believe but it is not as high as Spain or Greece. This analysis is all based on official figures and we should be aware that governments always like to massage figures (they will never overestimate growth for example) so the reality on the ground is likely worse that what you will read on the papers.

Also I would generally argue that austerity cannot work in global climate when a all countries are declining. The whole point of austerity is to lower wages so the products a country produces become cheaper and more competitive on the world market. This cannot work however if your customers from abroad are also experiencing declines in wages due to their own austerity measures. More significant than this however is the basic logic that not all countries can export their way out of a recession. There must always be some importers out there to buy those products so by simple logic austerity is bound to fail in at least some of the countries as some must remain importers.

Austerity can work but it does require the global economy to be healthy. For example Canada and Germany successfully applied austerity as they made their cuts while the global economy was experiencing a boom and the importers would buy their more competitive products. However in a weak global economy this is likely to be less successful.

In other news what do people think about Cyprus's bailout increasing from 17 billion to 23 billion? More than that however is the fact the Troika has threatened Greece to sell its gold reserves which takes on a extra significance seeing as the value of gold is taking a pounding these past few days.
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Old 2013-04-15, 13:28   Link #135
willx
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Solace View Post
Jobs data is awful, and the QE has fueled a huge bubble among the financiers. We're set for a bunch of bubbles to pop now, which is scary. Student loan debt has now passed public credit card debt, housing prices never actually reset, inflation being kept artificially low doesn't matter since wages are not keeping up with cost of living, etc.

I honestly can't see how anyone can look at the US economic picture and see anything good about it.
Oh, we're not talking about the economy doing well, I'm talking about the "rate of decline" .. it's whether it smooths out or steepens. I forget who I was speaking to but I had a long discussion laying out the varying theses on the U.S. situation.

The problem is the U.S. is "stuck" and the hope is that all these bubbles that are being created helps instill a bit of optimism back into the economy for long enough that the government can then pull out and the long-term decline will set in. We're talking zero to negative GDP over years and decades. The problem is if you don't set the path for it to happen slowly, it'll all happen at once, and that's when all hell breaks loose. All freaking hell.
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