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Old 2013-04-13, 04:27   Link #1021
Sumeragi
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Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant View Post
The main reason we are confident isn't that Japan is immune to missiles, but that NK doesn't even have the technology to even send the missile yet. Any missile that reach Japan is more likely to be accidental.
I actually have less faith in the JMSDF than in KPA. Ironic, but the JMSDF has really been lacking when compared to the JGSDF.

But then, it might be bias given that my family is related to the JGSDF.
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Old 2013-04-13, 05:50   Link #1022
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Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant View Post
The main reason we are confident isn't that Japan is immune to missiles, but that NK doesn't even have the technology to even send the missile yet. Any missile that reach Japan is more likely to be accidental.
You do remember that NK fired a missile OVER Japan into the pacific before right?
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Old 2013-04-13, 05:56   Link #1023
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Originally Posted by JokerD View Post
You do remember that NK fired a missile OVER Japan into the pacific before right?
Yes, but the Japanese didn't intercept for fear of raising tensions
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Old 2013-04-13, 06:24   Link #1024
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Originally Posted by Traece View Post
North Korea is barely at V2 Rocket stages. The kind of weapons they're trying to use don't really pose a long-range threat.
Latest tests were of a three stage missile, probably based on later model Scuds. That is somewhat comparable to US and Soviet late 50s/early 60s first generation ICBM technology. That is not far off from a credible threat, depending on how many missiles and warheads can be produced and fielded at any given time.

Last edited by Bri; 2013-04-13 at 08:23.
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Old 2013-04-13, 08:08   Link #1025
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Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
And anyone who believes so are fooling themselves. There is no 100% defense system.
This ^

I read somewhere before that during 2003 Iraq war, Saddam has shots some SKUD missiles toward US military base. The AEGIS system intercepted them all, but took four SM-3 for every SKUD. Worst, only 10% managed to destroyed the warhead on its path, the rest simply only deflected its flight path off target.

That means if NK shoot SKUD misses into Seoul for example, South Korea anti-missile defense only can protect key building/locations. But any other location within that 600 km2 of urban area may find a warhead heading their way. And that already assumed South Korean anti-missles defense could intercepted them all
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Old 2013-04-13, 08:10   Link #1026
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
No, it's just drawing a line to show the target.
That would actually imply that they have the correct locations for their targets.


The North Koreans seem to be under the mistaken belief that Colorado springs is in Arkansas/Illinois.



Oh well. What's wrong with being off by 700-850 miles when shooting somebody?
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Old 2013-04-13, 13:36   Link #1027
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Quote:
Originally Posted by risingstar3110 View Post
This ^

I read somewhere before that during 2003 Iraq war, Saddam has shots some SKUD missiles toward US military base. The AEGIS system intercepted them all, but took four SM-3 for every SKUD. Worst, only 10% managed to destroyed the warhead on its path, the rest simply only deflected its flight path off target.
I actually read somewhere that in a particular engagement (it may or may not have been this one), and issue with missiles getting through the defense system was actually due to one of the units of the system being left on too long causing it to not function properly. Also while it may have only been 10 years since 2003, we know that the U.S. (and naturally others) has been developing more countermeasures for warheads like those, and potential nuclear threats. I believe the system you mention itself is among those that's being further developed?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roger Rambo View Post
The North Koreans seem to be under the mistaken belief that Colorado springs is in Arkansas/Illinois.

Oh well. What's wrong with being off by 700-850 miles when shooting somebody?
Yeaaaah... They didn't put their propaganda together very well. I didn't really get the impression that their targets were the best ones either. Usually you aim for stuff like key military installations and the head of the government. With the U.S. the most you could do is hit D.C. and the Pentagon, and some of the larger military bases. Call this my guessing game of the day, but somehow I suspect that North Korea would be better off hitting a U.S. carrier fleet (or two) in the Pacific, and Hawaii, and D.C. (if they can even get that far). That's just me though.

My V-2 comment was a joke by the way. I am aware that their technology is a bit post-WWII.
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Old 2013-04-13, 13:40   Link #1028
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Quote:
Originally Posted by risingstar3110 View Post
That means if NK shoot SKUD misses into Seoul for example, South Korea anti-missile defense only can protect key building/locations. But any other location within that 600 km2 of urban area may find a warhead heading their way. And that already assumed South Korean anti-missles defense could intercepted them all
that would depend on how many real(not photo-shop) missiles NK has.
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Old 2013-04-13, 13:45   Link #1029
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Also we were not talking bout the ones targeting South Korea. We were talking about the ones targeting the United States or Japan. Those would be fewer in number than those fired on South Korea.
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Old 2013-04-13, 15:12   Link #1030
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What I'm trying to figure out is why the hell the North Koreans think it matters what particular nuclear strategy they use? No matter what targets they decide to go after, a nuclear conflict would still end with them getting wiped out in an American counter strike.


It's not like the US military even has that many ground based missile silos. It's all about the boomer fleet nowadays.
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Old 2013-04-13, 15:48   Link #1031
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Originally Posted by Roger Rambo View Post
What I'm trying to figure out is why the hell the North Koreans think it matters what particular nuclear strategy they use? No matter what targets they decide to go after, a nuclear conflict would still end with them getting wiped out in an American counter strike.


It's not like the US military even has that many ground based missile silos. It's all about the boomer fleet nowadays.
A strategy of deterrence I guess. So any strategy that poses enough threat to mainland US cities to prevent a military intervention in NK, whenever it's government seriously annoys the US and her allies.

I doubt even the most optimistic NK military planner thinks they could pull of a pre-emptive nuclear strike scenario. Nukes aren't meant to be used, they are just political pressure tools.
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Old 2013-04-13, 16:26   Link #1032
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The other problem being that the North Korean missile technology has not proven to have the range to hit those targets. Hawaii is likely in range of their best missiles. San Diego is a maybe on their longest range missile. Colorado Springs and Washington DC are reportedly out range for their best missiles. Unless they intend to use something like a satelite drop on those targets rather than the usual ICBM type weaponry. Or they managed to get their hands on a good SSB to get the missile closer to the target.
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Old 2013-04-13, 17:14   Link #1033
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Originally Posted by RRW View Post
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They should have done it in Civ IV instead; I would have found it more credible.
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Old 2013-04-13, 17:25   Link #1034
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Why the hell are they revealing their "most brilliant, top secret" ballistic strategy that will obliterate America?
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Old 2013-04-13, 17:36   Link #1035
Roger Rambo
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Originally Posted by Bri View Post
A strategy of deterrence I guess. So any strategy that poses enough threat to mainland US cities to prevent a military intervention in NK, whenever it's government seriously annoys the US and her allies.

I doubt even the most optimistic NK military planner thinks they could pull of a pre-emptive nuclear strike scenario. Nukes aren't meant to be used, they are just political pressure tools.
See, I understand this is deterrence. But what gets me is that their publicly stated nuclear deterrence policy is completely at odds with say, the Soviet Union. Unlike North Korea, the Soviet Union had the ACTUAL capability to wipe out all of Western Europe and the United States (as in, completely annihilate, as opposed to tragically destroying a few cities). Yet you didn't ever exactly hear the Soviet Union talking on international venues about how jacked up they were for thermonuclear combat with NATO. There was brinkmanship, but there was never "If you Americans continue to annoy us we will wipe out Washington DC!".

Quote:
Originally Posted by GenjiChan View Post
Why the hell are they revealing their "most brilliant, top secret" ballistic strategy that will obliterate America?
Because North Korea has to bark as loudly as possible to compensate for how weak it is. The Soviet Bear didn't need to make overt promises of destruction. The Soviet bear could just walk by, and by virtue of it being a bear, everyone knew to take it seriously.

A 15 pound dog needs to bark and snarl in order to be taken seriously. If it merely stomped around everyone would recognize it for being weak and puny.




Also, it seems that the Chinese are building up their military presence across the North Korean border.

When you combine this with the fact that the Chinese were willing to vote in on those new sanctions that got implemented last month... This situation isn't necessarily looking too good for North Korea.
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Old 2013-04-13, 18:21   Link #1036
Bri
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Originally Posted by Roger Rambo View Post
See, I understand this is deterrence. But what gets me is that their publicly stated nuclear deterrence policy is completely at odds with say, the Soviet Union. Unlike North Korea, the Soviet Union had the ACTUAL capability to wipe out all of Western Europe and the United States (as in, completely annihilate, as opposed to tragically destroying a few cities). Yet you didn't ever exactly hear the Soviet Union talking on international venues about how jacked up they were for thermonuclear combat with NATO. There was brinkmanship, but there was never "If you Americans continue to annoy us we will wipe out Washington DC!".
Ah in that sense. Then you're right, it's difficult to interpret NK's overly aggressive statements. Could be for internal political consumption while they assume the international community wont act on those words alone?

I'm not familiar with Korean cultural attitudes, so maybe they feel a need to act boisterous to convey a certain intent? For example in the media I've seen SK lawmakers fight in parliament, which seems so at odds at the restraint shown in public. I'm not sure if they want to make a statement by dropping decorum or if emotions just ignited.
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Old 2013-04-13, 18:27   Link #1037
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bri View Post
I'm not familiar with Korean cultural attitudes, so maybe they feel a need to act boisterous to convey a certain intent? For example in the media I've seen SK lawmakers fight in parliament, which seems so at odds at the restraint shown in public. I'm not sure if they want to make a statement by dropping decorum or if emotions just ignited.
... if you want to be heard or get peoples' attention, use the media. Even a simple traffic violation of a politician could destroy his reputation 10 folds.... It's pretty common almost everywhere...
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Old 2013-04-13, 18:58   Link #1038
Roger Rambo
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Originally Posted by Bri View Post
I'm not familiar with Korean cultural attitudes, so maybe they feel a need to act boisterous to convey a certain intent? For example in the media I've seen SK lawmakers fight in parliament, which seems so at odds at the restraint shown in public. I'm not sure if they want to make a statement by dropping decorum or if emotions just ignited.
To be fair, South Korean politicians aren't allowed to use artillery and and thermonuclear devices against eachother.
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Old 2013-04-13, 21:55   Link #1039
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Manila offers US its military bases in case of N.Korea war

Quote:
"It would then be logical to assume that in the event of an attack on the Philippines or on our treaty ally, the US would be allowed to use our bases," he added.
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Old 2013-04-14, 00:00   Link #1040
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Originally Posted by Bri View Post
For example in the media I've seen SK lawmakers fight in parliament, which seems so at odds at the restraint shown in public. I'm not sure if they want to make a statement by dropping decorum or if emotions just ignited.
In terms of confrontations between lawmakers, I think the best still remains this one from Czech Republic:

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End of the off-topic part.
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